UFC FN 90 Betting Info / Predictions - Thursday July 7th

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC Fight Night 90 Predictions, Picks and MMA Betting Preview
from TopBet



UFC Lightweight Championship: Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez

Rafael Dos Anjos makes his second title defense to start off International Fight Week. He faces Eddie Alvarez on the heels of back-to-back dominant performances. The Brazilian champ dominated Anthony Pettis last March, and then beat perennial contender Donald Cerrone in December by first-round technical knockout. It’s hard to imagine how Dos Anjos can be beaten considering his tear through the talent-rich lightweight division.

Dos Anjos first announced himself among the upper echelon of the lightweight division when he knocked out former champion Benson Henderson in the first round of their 2014 clash. A flying knee and follow-up punches put Henderson’s lights out. The Brazilian also destroyed Nate Diaz before his blowout victory over Pettis.

The Rio de Janeiro native is a Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt with a punishing top game and nifty submission skills. He has eight career wins by submission, but his striking has been his bread and butter recently. Under the instruction of legendary trainer Rafael Cordeiro, Dos Anjos has won three of his last five fights by knockout or technical knockout.

Nevertheless, the champion has one glaring weakness: he seemingly can’t beat wrestling-centered fighters. He’s lost to the likes of Khabib Nurmagomedov and Gleison Tibau, both excellent grapplers. Here’s where challenger Eddie Alvarez comes in. The former Bellator Lightweight Champion, Alvarez has the grit to grind out victories.

Alvarez has grinded out the aforementioned Pettis and another top contender in Gilbert Melendez to get a shot at the lightweight title. However, he’s not just a wrestler; he also possesses excellent boxing. Alvarez has a good lead right hand, lunging in for straight rights or uppercuts to start off combinations. If there’s one thing a southpaw like Dos Anjos is vulnerable to, it’s a good lead right hand.

Writer’s prediction: Alvarez picks his spots with his boxing, and gets some opportunistic takedowns to get the upset as the underdog.



Heavyweight: Roy Nelson vs. Derrick Lewis

Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis wants to get his spot among the upper echelon of the UFC Heavyweight Division just as well after knocking out Gabriel Gonzaga in the first round of their April 2016 clash. With a string of three-straight knockout finishes, the Black Beast is a new breed of heavyweight with his crushing right hand indeed.

Lewis gets his chance to crack the top 10 when he meets Roy “Big Country” Nelson in the co-main event of Ultimate Fight Night 90. Big Country is a perennial contender with a booming right hand. A low base and a big belly also happen to make him very difficult to take down. He did show that he could be stopped, though, when he was knocked out by a Mark Hunt uppercut in September 2014.

Writer’s prediction: The fighter who connects first should win this matchup, and Lewis is the quicker and more explosive of the two. The Black Beast wins by knockout in the second round.



Welterweight: Alan Jouban vs. Belal Muhammad

Alan “Brahma” Jouban traded the runway for the mixed martial arts cage, and it has certainly paid off given his 13-4 record with a spot in the premier MMA promotion. Jouban has knockout power, which he showcased in his first-round knockout victory over Brendan O’Reily in March.

Belal “Remember the Name” Muhammad wants to make an explosive entry into the UFC with a sparkling 9-0 record. Muhammad is an excellent prospect and could have a bright future in the sport.

Writer’s prediction: Muhammad is a bright prospect, one who edges out Jouban in a total slugfest.



Lightweight: Joe Duffy vs. Mitch Clarke

“Irish” Joe Duffy was supposed to be the next big thing from Ireland after Conor McGregor. He had a serving of humble pie in his last outing, dropping a clear-cut unanimous decision against Dustin Poirier in January. Duffy still has excellent boxing and a good submission game, which should be dangerous against anyone not in the top 10. Mitch “Danger Zone” Clarke is big and strong, and will be better served to follow Poirier’s takedown-heavy game plan.

Writer’s prediction: Duffy rebounds with a resounding second-round submission over Clarke.



Welterweight: Mike Pyle vs. Alberto Mina

Alberto “Soldier of God” Mina looked lackluster in beating Yoshihiro Akiyama—not exactly a very good fighter—in November. But he did showcase new tools in the striking department after training with the renowned Rafael Cordeiro. Mina’s next big test next is Mike “Quicksand” Pyle, who’s been around the game for so long having faced the who’s who of MMA.

Writer’s prediction: Mina is preparing with the best, including Rafael Dos Anjos heading into this fight. Meanwhile, Pyle is set in his ways, already being 40 years old. Mina gets a tight victory to announce his status as a potential future contender.



Preliminary Card


John “The Bull” Makdessi and Mehdi “The Sultan” Baghdad are coming in to do one thing—engage in an all-out brawl. Makdessi is a Canadian and US kickboxing champion, while Baghdad has won world titles in Muay Thai. Considering the Canadian just broke his jaw in May 2015, Baghdad should have what it takes to finish the fight.

Anthony “El Toro” Birchak is an excellent wrestler with a pop in his punches, as evidenced by his first-round stoppage of Joe Sotto for his only Octagon victory. He’ll want to avoid the ground game against submission specialist Dileno Lopes. Birchak should have the tools to keep the fight standing, where he has the advantage.

Pedro “The Young Punisher” Munhoz has a very strong top game, which gives him an advantage over Russell Doane. The Hawaiian is a well-rounded fighter, but struggles against good grapplers. Munhoz gets the decision.

Jerrod Sanders is a beast in the bantamweight division, preferring to get on top and use his wrestling base to grind out victories. Felipe Arantes is a striker first and foremost, using his strength and physicality to force stoppages. However, Sanders is big and strong and could grind out a decision.

Gilbert Burns is one of the best Brazilian jiu jitsu artists in the lightweight division. He’s also added a good striking form after becoming a member of the Blackzillians team. He should have what it takes to dominate Pole Lukasz Sajewski.

Reginaldo Vieira should get the job done against Mexican Marco Beltran by submission.

Vicente Luque is a good grappler, but struggles to get opponents down on the mat. Alvaro Herrera has the striking advantage, and has finished over half of his fights by knockout or technical knockout. Luque should be able to get a takedown, which he uses to snatch the win by submission.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC Fight Night 90
from Tapology



R. dos Anjos 84%
R. Nelson 53%
J. Duffy 94%
A. Jouban 80%
J. Makdessi 83%
A. Birchak 83%
M. Pyle 66%
V. Luque 82%
G. Burns 95%
R. Vieira 70%
P. Munhoz 87%
F. Arantes 84%

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Rafael Dos Anjos (25-7)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’7″ Age: 31 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 71″
•Last Fight: TKO win / Donald Cerrone (12-19-15)
•Camp: Kings MMA (California)
•Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Moderate


Supplemental info:
+ UFC Lightweight Champion
+ BJJ Black Belt
+ 5 KO victories
+ 8 first round finishes
+ 8 Submission wins
+ KO Power
+ Disciplined w/pace & pressure
^ Aggressive but intelligent striking
+ Hard & accurate left kicks
^ Favors body & inside leg kicks
+ Solid left hand-right hook
^ Variates well to the body
+ Improved takedown ability
+ Strong top game
^ Smashes & passes effectively
– Struggles with wrestling pressure



Eddie Alvarez (27-4)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’10” Age: 32 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 69″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Anthony Pettis (1-17-16)
•Camp: Mark Henry & Co. (New Jersey)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Former Bellator Lightweight Champ
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ 16 TKO victories
+ 13 first round finishes
+ 5 Submission wins
+ Good cardio & conditioning
^ Excellent recoverability
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Favors takedowns off the cage
+ Accurate right hand/uppercut
^ Often setup w/darts & crouches
+ Quick shifting/lateral footwork
– Lacks leg checks/defense
– Low hand position/strike retraction
^ Counter availabilities
– Dropped/stunned in 7 of last 10 fights



Summary:

The first main event for UFC Fight Week is a big one as Rafael Dos Anjos defends his title against Eddie Alvarez. With his only loss in the last five years coming at the hands of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Dos Anjos has steadily climbed his way to the top of the division. Looking especially good as of late, Dos Anjos will attempt to cement his supremacy amongst the historically most stacked division in MMA. Once again embracing the underdog status is Eddie Alvarez, as the former Bellator champion looks to capture the one title that has eluded him thus far in his career.

If you are not already condemning me for my pick, let me first state that I came into this match up leaning heavily toward Dos Anjos as I feel he is the justified favorite. However, after diving into the history of each man, I found some potential flags that lead me to believe this is closer to a “pick’em” fight as I feel the line is off here. Although I have no problem conceding to the narrative that Dos Anjos can get this done decisively, I feel that writing off a fighter like Alvarez’s chances in this matchup could be a dangerous thing to do. Regardless of who you like in this fight, I will attempt to provide some counterpoints worth considering as I explain why I am siding with the underdog.

It is easy to see why the betting lines and narratives seem slanted in this matchup given our propensity for short-term memory and surface level value in MMA. You have one fighter in Rafael Dos Anjos, who minus one hiccup, has looked like nothing short of a wrecking machine in the last few years. That said, one could argue that many of his recent victories also came over stylistically favorable matchups mixed with odd performances by his opposition(Diaz, Cerrone, & Pettis). Then you have another fighter in Eddie Alvarez, who after a long-awaited contract dispute made his way into the UFC with deceivingly unimpressive performances. But again, you could argue that this was due to tough matchups accompanied with circumstantial intangibles(From the layoff to debut against Cowboy, to the altitude & altered vision against Melendez).

I do not mean to insinuate nor take anything away from the fighters or fights mentioned above, but I do feel it is an important reminder of how looks can be deceiving. The fight game does not care about betting favorites or hype, as we have all been confounded by the results of this sport time-and-time again. That said, I will be breaking down this matchup the same way I do the rest, by using in-cage evidence to forecast how these styles may collide.

In the striking department, there is a lot to like from the champion Rafael Dos Anjos. Under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro, we have seen RDA develop into a full-fledged southpaw threat. Showing a natural ability to kick with force, Dos Anjos has steadily refined his technique & timing as he favors shots to the liver and inside leg with precision. Applying his underrated technique and timing to his hands, RDA has also sharpened his cross-hook combinations as he variates them well to the body. Traditionally being the shorter man, Dos Anjos relies on his foot speed and ability to out-move his opponents, which is what makes this particular matchup so interesting.

Despite Rafael’s disciplined footwork and deceptive distance closing abilities, he will be facing one of the better lateral-movers in the division. With a style of footwork rooted from boxing, Alvarez demonstrates a solid understanding of angles and movement. Often operating out of a crouch(weight low & heavy over the power side), Alvarez will exercise his options of countering inside or stepping off to his left by utilizing a dart(in a similar fashion to Dominick Cruz). Although Alvarez has been more conservative in his approach as of late, he still consistently circles and steps to his left side. Moving left will come in handy for Alvarez as this leads him away from the power side of Dos Anjos’ attacks.

That said, Eddie’s propensity to move left coupled with his low-handed standing guard has traditionally cost him right-hand counters in his fights. In fact, Alvarez has been dropped or stunned in 7 of 10 of his last fights with right-hands often being the common culprit. Although most of RDA’s danger lies in his left side, the Brazilian throws an underrated right hook that I see being the biggest threat to Alvarez. However, most of the champion’s checkmarks in regards to striking reside within the offensive aspects of this fight. As impressive as those offensive improvements are, I am not so certain RDA has improved in the same ways defensively.

Even though Dos Anjos is the one who is usually pursuing, he will typically revert to a shell defense when under pressure. Although improved head & foot movement assists his defensive efforts, the shell RDA utilizes traditionally leaves openings for body shots & uppercuts. Despite Alvarez not showing the pressure fighting he was renown for earlier in his career, he still lands a solid 3.27 strikes per minute(surprisingly just above the champion). And considering that the uppercut is Eddie’s most dangerous punch, this could be a factor that rears it head in this fight.

Aside from the obvious possibility of Dos Anjos catching Alvarez in the early going, I feel that the wrestling exchanges should be a key factor in this fights outcome. Both fighters have shown a recent trend in solidifying rounds with takedowns & activity, which should make the wrestling battles even more competitive. Although Dos Anjos has made improvements to his offensive wrestling, I am not certain he has made the same strides defensively. Though most point to RDA’s shortcomings against Khabib as an outlying performance amongst his sample size(and I’d agree), Dos Anjos has still shown he can be taken down prior to and since that performance.

Even though Dos Anjos was able to immediately get back to his feet, the only two fighters who have tried to take down RDA since Nurmagomedov were both successful(Jason High and a tired Anthony Pettis in the 4th round). That said, it is hard to get a clear sense of Dos Anjos’ takedown defense considering his stylistic matchups since Khabib. Although Alvarez is no Nurmagomedov, he is an underrated wrestler as he demonstrates solid takedown chains that could pose problems for the champion. Although Dos Anjos displays good defense from the fence that could contest this, his aggression has shown to make him vulnerable to reactive shots in the open. With Alvarez spending the better part of this last year working his wrestling and MMA game with Frankie Edgar & company, I expect Eddie will look to exploit these opportunities should they arise. I also have a hard time seeing RDA grounding Eddie with consistency given Alvarez’s takedown defense rate of 91% (not to mention that he scrambles well back to his feet).

Ultimately, I feel that the entire camp of Mark Henry & company could be a crucial fit for a “wrestle-box” type fighter like Alvarez. Although Alvarez enjoyed his time with the Blackzilians down in South Florida, he stated that it wasn’t quite the right fit for him. After extensive work in New Jersey for this extended camp, we may see a new & resurgent Alvarez. In my opinion, Eddie’s camp adjustments coupled with his proven gameness give him an intangible edge in this battle. Even though I concede Dos Anjos as the justified favorite, this has all the signs of a trap fight as I recommend caution playing this one.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Alvarez – Decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Roy Nelson (21-12)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’0″ Age: 40 Weight: 249 lbs Reach: 73″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Jared Rosholt (2-6-16)
•Camp: Xtreme Couture MMA (Las Vegas, NV)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: fair


Supplemental info:
+ IFL HW & Grand Prix Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 14 KO victories
+ 13 first round finishes
+ 5 Submission wins



Derrick Lewis (15-4)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’3″ Age: 31 Weight: 264 lbs Reach:79″
•Last Fight: KO win / Gabriel Gonzaga (4-10-16)
•Camp: Silverback Fight Club (Texas)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ All Wins via stoppage
+ 14 KO victories
+ 7 first round finishes
+ 1 Submission win



Summary:

*STATED BIAS: Due to my affiliation with Xtreme Couture MMA I will be opting out of analyzing this matchup as Roy Nelson has spent the duration of his camp there. I apologize for shorting you a breakdown on the main card, but I hope you understand my stance and effort for professionalism.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: *Nelson – Inside the distance

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Alan Jouban (13-4)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’0″ Age: 33 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 74″
•Last Fight: TKO win / Brendan O’Reilly (3-19-16)
•Camp: Black House MMA (California)
•Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Brown Belt BJJ
+ Muay Thai Base
+ 10 KO victories
+ 7 first round finishes
+ Solid combination striker
^ Variates to the body well
+ Accurate counter left hand
+ Dangerous liver kick
+ Underrated wrestling
+ Crafty guard game
+ Scrambles well to his feet
+/-Sometimes starts slow
^ Often hit early/recovers well



Belal Muhammad (9-0)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’10” Age: 27 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 71″
•Last Fight: TKO Win / Steve Carl (4-30-16)
•Camp: Roufusport (Chicago, IL)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Good


Supplemental info:
+ Titan FC Welterweight Champion
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 3 KO victories
+ 1 first round finish
+ Good feints & footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Puts together punches well
^ Variates to the body
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Solid double-leg takedown
+ Competent positional grappler
^ Transitions well
+/-Debuting on 3-weeks notice



Summary:

A sleeper candidate for a fight of the night bonus, the always exciting Alan Jouban welcomes Belal Muhammad to the UFC. One of the organizations usual suspects for performance bonuses, Jouban brings gameness and excitement no matter how dangerous the opposition. Originally slated to face Nordine Taleb, Alan will instead face a replacement just as talented in Belal Muhammad. Although taking this fight on 3-weeks notice, the recently crowned Titan FC champion has been in prior contact with the UFC and is more than ready to make his debut.

Coming from a wrestling base, Belal has shown consistent fight-to-fight improvements in all areas of his game, particularly his striking. Doing a great job of keeping his feet underneath him, Muhammad can stalk or counter with nearly equal effectiveness. Coupling his abilities to manage distance with his fight IQ, Muhammad intelligently works with what his opponent gives him as he steadily takes the steering wheel in his fights. Although his hard leg kicks have helped punctuate recent performances, I feel that Muhammad’s left hand may serve him especially well against Jouban.

Wielding consistent volume with his left jabs & hooks, Muhammad fundamentally follows-up his strikes accordingly. Deceptively accurate with his left hand, he could catch and or disrupt Alan’s attacks. Often in mid-exchange or when throwing from his left side, Jouban’s right hand/guard tends to drop as this can open him up to left hooks(as seen is his fight with Seth Baczynski). Positive points to his game aside, there are still many questions that need to be answered by Muhammad. In watching footage on Belal from the last few years, I could not find instances of how he reacts to being hurt as he carries a solid poker face and is seldom significantly hit.

Although I do not doubt that Belal can overcome adversity, it is nice to see a fighter thoroughly tested in that department before making their UFC debut against a firestorm like Alan Jouban. That said, despite Alan’s fast finishing fights, he tends to start slightly slow as he is usually susceptible to getting hit early. Even though Belal is a bit of a slow burn himself, he has recently stated in interviews that he recognizes Alan’s trend and intends to come on fast. With that being noted, I feel that pressure fighting will be a key factor in this fight. And not just who is pressuring, but more importantly, how the opposing fighter reacts to said pressure.

Despite Jouban’s style being shown to make clear pathways for pressure fighters, we have seen him successfully ride storms time-and-time again due to his ability to capitalize in the chaos. Although this style of operation is a two-way street, Alan will likely need to create such chaos if he means to take Muhammad into unfamiliar territory. With this being Jouban’s seventh fight with the UFC, this is the type of matchup where he will need to embrace his growing veteran status. Although you may not be familiar with the name Belal Muhammad, you will likely remember it after this fight as I suggest you stay away from playing this one. That said, my pick is Jouban as I feel his output and experience will earn him the more favorable terms of fighting.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Jouban – Decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Joseph Duffy (14-2)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’10” Age: 28 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 73″
•Last Fight: Decision loss / Dustin Poirier (1-2-16)
•Camp: Tristar Gym (Canada/Ireland)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Boxing
•Risk Management: Moderate


Supplemental info:
+ Jiu-jitsu & TKD Black Belt
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 7-0 as a pro boxer
+ 4 TKO victories
+ 9 Submission wins
+ 12 first round finishes
+ Excellent head movement
^ Good striking economy off movement
+ Deceptive speed changes
+ Accurate left-hook & jab
+ Favors leading with his left side
^ Fast switch kicks & shuffle knees
+ Solid guard game
+ Well versed in submissions
^ Dangerous in the scramble
– Lacks leg checks



Mitch Clarke (11-3)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’10” Age: 30 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 73″
•Last Fight: Decision loss / Michael Chiesa (4-4-15)
•Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico/Canada)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Good


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Brown Belt BJJ
+ Wrestling Base
+ 1 TKO victories
+ 7 Submission wins
+ 3 first round finishes
+ Good pace & pressure
+ Improved striking
^ Defensively & offensively
+ Strong pressure against fence
+ Aggressive takedown game
^ Favors single-leg variations
+ Solid transitional grappler
^ Crafty in the scramble
+/-Often turtles to stand
^ Back-take vulnerabilities
– Often Succeeds bottom position



Summary:

In the always exciting lightweight division, “Irish” Joe Duffy takes on Mitch “Danger Zone” Clarke. Coming off a hard-fought loss to Dustin Poirier earlier this year, the Tristar transplant will look to rebound with a victory here. Standing in his way is Mitch Clarke, who is also looking to get back on track after a tough loss to Michael Chiesa last year.

Despite injuries keeping Clarke to just 3-fights in the past 4-years, the Canadian fighter has still managed to work hard and steadily improve fight-to-fight. With many of those improvements coming from his camps at the MMA Lab, Mitch has spent this training camp down in New Mexico at Jackson-Wink MMA. It will be interesting to see what gameplan Greg Jackson & company employ, although, for me, Clarke’s path in this fight should be an obvious one.

Although Mitch has demonstrated improvements to his offensive & defensive game standing, I don’t feel his footwork & combinations will be on par with Joe Duffy as I give the Irishman a clear striking advantage. Not just a technically diverse and sharp striker, it is Duffy’s deceptive speed changes that make him so dangerous as I feel that will be a key factor in this fight. Subtly setting a perceived rhythm, Joseph will lull his opposition into a false sense of security before exploding and intercepting with accuracy.

Even though Clarke will have to be careful of the former boxer’s crafty jabs & hooks, the Canadian may find some success in the kicking department. Despite Duffy operating well offensively out of a boxing stance, he traditionally suffers defensively in regards to leg kicks. With that being a common side-effect from that stance, the heavy-legged Clarke could capitalize here and dissuade some of the Irishman’s movement. Ultimately, the Canadian’s best chances lie within getting Duffy to the ground.

A durable grappler with an aggressive takedown game, Clarke poses the stylistic puzzle pieces that could prove very troublesome for a fighter like Duffy. That said, the Canadian holds a 19% takedown success rate as he’s gone 3-for-16 in attempts over the last 5-years. When able to steer his opponents to the fence, Mitch displays a solid ability to chain together his favored single-leg variations. However, Clarke often lacks the executing explosion to turn his corners and finish his takedowns.

Regardless of whether Mitch finds wrestling success or not, it is the manner in which Duffy reacts to the pressure that will decide this fight. Although pressure fighting and wrestling were a clear path in Duffy’s last defeat, I don’t think we should be too quick to condemn him on that performance given his opposition. An underrated grappler and improved wrestler, Dustin Poirier was able to control Duffy particularly well against the fence.

Although Dustin did his part technically to ensure the fight stayed there, Duffy’s willingness to fight off his back was troubling. If Duffy does not adjust the approach in his get-up urgency, Clarke may be able to climb into his game and perhaps even steal a round. Even though Duffy displayed serviceable takedown defense before entering the UFC, I feel Clarke’s pressure will give us a good look at where the Irishman’s skillsets lay. Ultimately, I believe Duffy’s footwork and movement will limit Clarke’s availability for takedowns as his speed and accuracy will likely be too much.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Duffy – Inside the distance

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Mike Pyle (27-11-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’1″ Age: 40 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 74″
•Last Fight: TKO win / Sean Spencer (2-6-16)
•Camp: Syndicate MMA (Las Vegas, NV)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Moderate


Supplemental info:
+ WEC Welterweight Title
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 7 KO victories
+ 15 first round finishes
+ 16 Submission wins
+ KO Power
+ Veteran composure & craft
^ Looks to counter & capitalize
+ Dangerous right-hand/elbows
+ Strong overall clinch game
^ Knees, trips, & throws
+ Excellent positional rides
^ Strikes, presses, progresses
+ Active & offensive guard
– Head often upright in retreat
^ Follow-up opportunities



Alberto Mina (!2-0)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’0″ Age: 34 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 77.5″
•Last Fight: SD win / Yoshihiro Akiyama (11-28-15)
•Camp: Epic MMA (Hong Kong)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ & Judo
+ Multiple Grappling Accolades
+ 9 first round finishes
+ 6 Submission wins
+ 5 KO victories
+ Steadily improved striking
^ Favors left hook-right hand
+/-Decent level change on double
^ Lacks takedown setups
+ Dangerous transitional grappler
+ Solid from figure-4/Kimura grip
^ Aggressive armbar setups
– Head high off strikes
^ Counter availabilities
+/-2 fights in 3 years



Summary:

Kicking off the main card on UFC Fight Pass is a fantastic welterweight matchup as undefeated Alberto Mina takes on the dangerous veteran Mike Pyle.

Although a veteran of martial arts himself, Alberto Mina has had a very measured approach to his MMA career. Only fighting three times in the past five years, Alberto will look to cement his presence amongst the UFC’s welterweight division. Standing in the Brazilian’s way is his toughest test to date, as he draws the always dangerous Mike Pyle. The term “crafty veteran” is an overused one in MMA, but that term has no better poster child than Mike Pyle. Although he is far from a child at forty years of age, the oldest active fighter in the division will be out to prove once again that he is still one of the most well-rounded & dangerous in the game.

Studying Judo & Brazilian Jiu-jitsu from a young age, Alberto Mina has shown to be more than just a Jiu-jitsu champion inside the cage. Despite not fighting with consistency throughout his career, Mina shows a surprising amount of craft and composure in his fight game. Demonstrating steady improvements to his striking, Alberto displays competency at multiple ranges. Putting his frame to good use, Mina stays long with his punches as he mixes in healthy looks of kicks and knees. Although Alberto does not appear to be a power puncher, he is deceptively effective with his technique and timing as he seemingly capitalizes at the correct times.

A steadily evolved striker himself, Mike Pyle’s arsenal of attacks have come into their own late in his career. Showing improved movement and awareness inside the pocket, we have seen Pyle’s right hand consistently deliver damage in his fights. Although craft inside the clinch is something he is renown for, Mike has recently thrown knees & elbows into the fold that have rounded out his offense with great effect. Although I feel Pyle is the more technically skilled fighter on the feet, there may be key areas he could be vulnerable to in this fight.

Despite retracting his right-hand high, Pyle tends to get hit with follow-up left(and right) hands due to his natural upright posture in retreat. With that said, I feel that Alberto’s left hook may come into play being that that’s his most accurate punch. However, the Brazilian bears similar defensive openings of his own as he tends to keep his head high coming off of his strikes. Although Alberto has a decent sense of avoiding counters, relying too heavily on his length could cost him in this contest.

Despite the majority of Mina’s finishes coming on the floor, I doubt he will have the same superiority in this match regardless of his accolades. Well-rounded, underrated, and crafty are all gross understatements on Mike Pyle’s ground game. Now I am not saying his game is beyond reproach, but for a guy with no official ranks or accolades, he is one of the best you will find. Where most ground specialists still require specific conditions for their game to be effective(Top players, Guard Players, Scramblers, etc.), Pyle can operate competently and comfortably from all positions. Whether he is chaining his submissions to his sweeps or stealing souls with his positional riding abilities, Pyle more than possesses the skills to compete with Mina.

Furthermore, I feel Pyle’s chances will grow in the grappling department if he is the one deciding it’s terms. Despite an improved double -leg entry, Mina traditionally shoots without any punch setups or feints. Although his aggressive attitude to get after it has often rewarded him ground stanzas, Alberto’s approach has been less effective against higher-level competition. Considering he is facing one of the more notoriously hard guys to get down, I feel the wrestling acumen of Pyle will likely dictate initial exchanges.

My ultimate assessment of this matchup is that the areas in which Mina favors to win fights are the same areas that Pyle specializes in. Whether it’s clinch fighting, guard playing, or figure-4 gripping, I feel that Pyle is much more versatile and proven in these positions. Even though Alberto has seemingly found ways to win his fights thus far, I believe that Pyle presents a matchup that can audit Alberto’s inconsistent activity & arsenal. Unless Mina can catch Pyle and get him out of there early, then the Brazilian may ultimately find himself in quicksand the longer this one goes.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Pyle – Decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Mixed Martial Analyst



Preliminary Card Predictions:
•Baghdad def. Makdessi
•Birchak def. Lopes
•Munhoz def. Doane
•Arantes def. Sanders
•Burns def. Sajewski
•Vieira def. Beltran
•Luque def. Herrera



Recommended Plays:

Draft Kings Rosters:

Team #1: $48,300.00

-Joseph Duffy ($11,100.00)
-Mike Pyle ($9,900.00)
-Roy Nelson ($9,800.00)
-Medhi Baghdad ($8,900.00)
-Eddie Alvarez ($8,600.00)

Team Summary:

Joseph Duffy, Roy Nelson, and Mike Pyle are all, in my opinion, slightly favored in matches that carry high probabilities in point scoring. In efforts to balance the budget with live underdogs, I went with Medhi Baghdad and Eddie Alvarez. I feel that Baghdad will be a bad matchup for Makdessi as he is longer, more versatile, and overall more dangerous as a striker. Coming in healthy and with a full camp, I expect Baghdad to score an upset over Makdessi(who has been contemplating retirement). Finally, in sticking to my argument above, I feel Eddie Alvarez will get you the most bang for you buck as far as low tier picks go.



Team #2: $49,900.00

-Joseph Duffy ($11,100.00)
-Rafael Dos Anjos ($11,000.00)
-Pedro Munhoz ($10,400.00)
-Medhi Baghdad ($8,900.00)
-Alvaro Herrera ($8,500.00)

Team Summary:

If you don’t agree with my optimism on Alvarez, I can hardly blame you given how good Rafael Dos Anjos has looked as of late. That said, here is a line-up that includes the champion to go along with the high-tier picks of Joseph Duffy and Pedro Munhoz. Munhoz is a talented and well-rounded fighter, who is also slightly favored in a match with a high probability of point scoring. To round out the budget of this team with live underdogs, I elected to go with the previously mentioned Medhi Baghdad, as well as Alvaro Herrera. Although I officially picked Luque to win, I feel that the asking price is a bit off base. Despite Luque being the more well-rounded and experienced fighter, he is still very hittable and arguably undersized for the division. Herrera is raw, but he packs real power that could play a factor in the fight.




Props worth looking at(5dimes):

-Burns/Sajewski over 2 1/2: -170 (1 Unit)
-Alan Jouban by Decision: +255 (.05 Unit)
-Roy Nelson by TKO/KO: +135 (.05 Unit)
-Medhi Bagdad ITD: +385 (.25 Unit)
-Eddie Alvarez – by Decision: +610 (.25 Unit)



Playable favorites for your parlays:

-Pedro Munhoz
-Joseph Duffy
-Gilbert Burns



Fights to avoid:

-Marco Beltran vs Reginaldo Vieira
-Vincente Luque vs Alvaro Herrera
-Felipe Arantes vs Jerrod Sanders

 

[NewYorkKnight]

The Complete Guide to UFC Fight Night 90
from Patrick Wyman - Bleacher Report



Vicente Luque (8-5-1; 1-1 UFC) vs. Alvaro Herrera (9-3; 1-0 UFC)

The Blackzilians' Luque takes on The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America 2 competitor Herrera to open the evening's festivities. The bout pits Luque's smooth, technical striking and grappling against Herrera's powerful but awkward striking and basic secondary skills.

Prediction: Luque submits Herrera in the second round.



Reginaldo Vieira (13-3; 1-0 UFC) vs. Marco Beltran (7-3; 2-0 UFC)

TUF: Brazil 4 winner Vieira returns to action against TUF: Latin America's Beltran in a decent scrap at 135 pounds. Vieira is a rote striker with some power, but does his best work as a wrestler and grappler and has the cardio to go deep into the fight. Beltran can do a bit of everything, but does his best work on the feet with forward-moving combinations.

Prediction: This is a relative softball for the TUF: Brazil winner. Vieira submits Beltran in the first round.



Gilbert Burns (10-1; 3-1 UFC) vs. Lukasz Sajewski (13-1; 0-1 UFC)

Brazil's Burns takes on Poland's Sajewski in a solid lightweight bout. Burns lost to Rashid Magomedov in his last outing, but he's still a blue-chip prospect with great physical tools, a legitimately world-class grappling game and strong striking and wrestling skills to boot. Sajewski is competent everywhere and making improvements from fight to fight.

Prediction: This is Burns' fight to lose. He might submit Sajewski, but it's more likely the Brazilian takes a decision.



Felipe Arantes (17-7-1, 2 N/C; 4-3-1 UFC) vs. Jarrod Sanders (15-2, 1 N/C; 1-1, 1 N/C UFC)

Brazil's Arantes takes on American wrestler Sanders. Arantes, who has alternated wins and losses in his UFC career, is a striker with potent kicks and a slick grappler with a nice array of sweeps and submissions. Sanders is a good athlete, but he's still basically a wrestler with some grappling and striking skills.

Prediction: Arantes is an abysmal defensive wrestler, and wrestling remains Sanders' best skill set. Either he'll control Arantes or walk his way into a submission, and the former seems more likely. Sanders takes a decision.



Pedro Munhoz (11-2, 1 N/C; 1-2, 1 N/C UFC) vs. Russell Doane (14-5; 2-2 UFC)

Brazil's Munhoz and Hawaii's Doane meet in a fantastic bantamweight scrap. Both are exceptionally talented, but their UFC records don't reflect their skill or potential.

Munhoz can do everything, with technical striking and wrestling skills, but he stands out most as a lethal grappler. Doane blends his skills together nicely and is particularly effective on the mat, while on the feet he's skilled but doesn't throw enough strikes.

Prediction: This should be fun, especially if it goes to the ground. Munhoz is better on the feet and a touch more technical on the mat. He takes a decision.



Anthony Birchak (12-3; 1-2 UFC) vs. Dileno Lopes (18-2; 0-1 UFC)

TUF: Brazil 4 bantamweight finalist Lopes takes on the American Birchak in a crackling matchup at 135 pounds. Birchak entered the UFC with some hype, but he has sandwiched losses to Ian Entwistle and top prospect Thomas Almeida around a lone win, albeit a crushing one, over Joe Soto. Lopes was once a top prospect himself, but fell short against Vieira last August.

Violence defines Birchak's game. The American is a top-shelf athlete with enormous strength, explosion and raw power, and his aggressive game forces his opponents to deal with their athletic disadvantages. At range Birchak throws heavy kicks and punches, but he does his best work in the clinch, with a heavy diet of knees, elbows and punches. Wrestling is another strong suit of his game.

Lopes' game relies on two things: counterpunching and guillotine chokes. He ranges between competent and excellent elsewhere and is a strong wrestler, but those two facets form the vast majority of his offense. On the feet, Lopes is reluctant to lead, but the moment his opponent commits the Brazilian drops a hard combination. On the mat, Lopes constantly hunts for his opponent's neck.

Prediction: This should be fun. Birchak will be happy to pressure, which means opportunities for Lopes to counter to his heart's content. The American is bigger at a thick 5'8" compared to Lopes' generous listing of 5'5", and the clinch should be the difference here. Birchak takes a fun, back-and-forth decision.



John Makdessi (13-5; 6-5 UFC) vs. Mehdi Baghdad (11-4; 0-1 UFC)

Canada's Makdessi takes on the Frenchman Baghdad in a fun matchup of lightweight strikers. Baghdad dropped his UFC debut to Chris Wade, while Makdessi fell short in a contentious decision against Yancy Medeiros last December.

Makdessi is a pure striker with a fun arsenal of front, side and spinning kicks along with a crisp jab. Baghdad is a slick striker himself with crushing kicks and a nasty clinch game.

Prediction: Baghdad's height and kicking arsenal could give Makdessi problems, but the Canadian is smoother and throws more volume. Makdessi takes a decision.



Mike Pyle (27-11-1; 10-6 UFC) vs. Alberto Mina (12-0; 2-0 UFC)

The veteran Pyle takes on Brazil's Mina in yet another entertaining matchup. Mina has won both his UFC outings, taking a split decision from Yoshihiro Akiyama last November, while Pyle snapped a two-fight losing streak in February.

Pyle can do it all with slick and crafty technical acumen. He's particularly adept in the clinch and with counterpunches. Mina is aggressive and prefers to strike, though he's at his best in the clinch and on the mat.

Prediction: If Pyle can keep the pace slow and force the fight into the clinch and onto the ground, he'll have a shot. It's more likely that Mina finds a finishing shot, and the pick is Mina by knockout in the first.



Alan Jouban (13-4; 4-2 UFC) vs. Belal Muhammad (9-0; 0-0 UFC)

The always-entertaining Jouban takes on Titan FC welterweight champion Muhammad as he makes his UFC debut. Jouban rebounded from a brutal knockout loss to Albert Tumenov by finishing Brendan O'Reilly in March. For his part, Muhammad has beaten good competition on the regional scene, including former World Series of Fighting champion Steve Carl in his last outing.

Muhammad is a smooth, composed fighter with real promise. Striking is his wheelhouse, and his boxing background shows in a diverse, consistent jab that he uses to measure and set his preferred range. His tight, technical footwork likewise shows polish beyond his years. Whether he decides to stick and move, pressure or stand in front of his opponent and counter, Muhammad is equally comfortable.

He's not the most powerful puncher, but he does have pop in his hands when he decides to sit down and throw a combination. Pace is the real strength of Muhammad's game, as he routinely throws 15 or 20 strikes in a minute once he finds his range.

Strong defensive wrestling keeps Muhammad standing, and he can hit the occasional takedown for variety when the mood strikes.

There's nothing particularly flashy about Muhammad's game, which explains why he wasn't considered to be a blue-chip prospect, but he's consistent, technically sound and improving from fight to fight.

Jouban is all action. The southpaw pushes forward behind a crushing left kick and a sharp right jab, and when he gets into the pocket unleashes devastating punching combinations. He's not the most technical in exchanges, but his raw power, durability and sheer willingness to engage make him a real threat at that range.

The southpaw's best skill set is his clinch. He excels at pinning his opponent against the fence and switching smoothly between positions, all the while ramming home hard knees to the body. Jouban's elbows are lethal, and he does a beautiful job of setting them up and combining them with his knees.

Only occasionally does Jouban look for takedowns, and he's competent if not outstanding at defending them. He has an active guard game from his back, but he can be controlled.


Prediction

It's somewhat surprising that the betting odds are that tight, but Muhammad is polished and experienced against UFC-caliber opposition. Moreover, his pace and technical acumen could give Jouban fits if this turns into a pure striking matchup. It's easy to foresee a scenario in which the debuting fighter picks Jouban apart with his jab and combinations on the feet.

The difference here should be the clinch. If Jouban can effectively pressure and get his hands on Muhammad, he should have a massive advantage in the tie-ups while keeping it relatively close at range. With that in mind, the pick is Jouban by entertaining, back-and-forth decision.




Joe Duffy (14-2; 2-1 UFC) vs. Mitch Clarke (11-3; 2-3 UFC)

Ireland's Duffy looks to rebound from his first UFC loss against Canada's Clarke. Prior to Nate Diaz's win over Conor McGregor in March, Duffy had been widely known as the last man to defeat the Irish superstar, and Duffy's two first-round finishes in the UFC made him a hot prospect. Dustin Poirier ended that streak, though, sending Duffy back to the drawing board.

Facing the Irishman will be Clarke, a five-fight UFC veteran who is the definite B-side in this matchup. Clarke lost a decision to Michael Chiesa in April 2015, which snapped a two-fight winning streak.

Duffy is dangerous in every phase. The Irishman spent several years as a professional boxer, and that shows in his lightning-quick jab, comfort with combination punching and silky-smooth footwork. He's most comfortable pressing forward behind that jab and then mixing in vicious sequences to the head and body. The occasional kick and stepping knee adds enough variety to keep his opponents guessing.

The strength of Duffy's game is his ability to adapt on the fly. He's an organic and intelligent striker who picks up on his opponent's cues and adjusts accordingly, spotting openings for particular strikes and working to set them up. The fact that he can find the fight-ending shot while still scoring enough to win rounds makes him an exceptional talent.

The rest of Duffy's game varies between serviceable and excellent. Poirier was able to repeatedly take him down and grind him out from top position, though that hadn't been a problem before. The Irishman had previously shown an active and dangerous guard along with strong takedown defense.

The Canadian is tough and well-rounded, though he lacks much in the way of athleticism or physical gifts. He has enough skills in every department to compete effectively and shows surprising strength to go along with his technical acumen.

Clarke is crafty on the feet. He likes to tap away with low kicks while circling to find advantageous angles, and then drops a punching combination when the opportunity presents itself. He's happy to counter as well.

The clinch is where Clarke shows off his combination of technical acumen and strength. He makes excellent use of head position to control even larger, stronger opponents while banking knees to the thigh and body, and he uses the fence to his advantage as well. He has a solid repertoire of clinch takedowns and shots, but defensive wrestling has been a problem.

Grappling is Clarke's strongest skill set. He excels at finding submissions in transition, namely from the front headlock, and getting to the back. Clarke has a bad habit of letting opponents grind him out from the top, though.


Prediction

This is Duffy's fight to lose. He's bigger, faster, hits harder and is generally the more dynamic and dangerous fighter. Unless Clarke can force him into a scramble-filled grappling match, the Canadian is in serious trouble, and even there Duffy is proficient in his own right. The Irishman finishes on the feet in the second round.



Roy Nelson (21-12; 8-8 UFC) vs. Derrick Lewis (15-4, 1 N/C; 6-2 UFC)

The Ultimate Fighter 10 winner Nelson takes on Texas' Lewis in a heavyweight slobberknocker. Nelson has been on a rough run of late, compiling a 2-5 record in the last three years. He rebounded with a snoozer of a win over Jared Rosholt in February. Lewis, on the other hand, is riding a hot streak. He has won three in a row, all by knockout, and finished Gabriel Gonzaga in April.

The winner will likely get a top-five opponent and a title shot won't be too far away.

Nelson's right hand remains his bread and butter, but he's made serious improvements to his technical game over the last several years. He probes with a jab, follows with a left hook and often throws in combination now. His footwork has also drastically improved. Nelson still throws himself off balance from time to time and relies too heavily on the right, but he's better than he used to be.

That right hand carries devastating power and can end any opponent's night in a heartbeat. On the downside, Nelson is slow and plodding, and while his punches are shockingly quick, his feet are not. More worrisome is the fact that he's an abysmal defensive fighter who is far, far too willing to eat shots. While his chin is still iron, Nelson can't take a shot like he used to, either.

That's more or less the extent of Nelson's game. He formerly relied on a suffocating and technically sound top game and a fondness for the crucifix, but the veteran doesn't have the wrestling skills to impose takedowns on elite opposition. It's not easy to get Nelson to the mat, though, and he's stout in the clinch as well.

Lewis' game relies on his size, physicality and power. He comes forward aggressively, launching himself into heavy punching combinations that either take his opponent's head off or carry him forward into the clinch. Either way, Lewis is happy. His shots carry crushing force and his athleticism means that he's on his opponent in a heartbeat.

In extended striking sequences, Lewis' shortcomings—a lack of options, some fundamental issues and defense—become clear. He rarely looks to stand at range for long, though, and he's making regular improvements.

Lewis isn't the most technical inside fighter, but his sheer size and strength make him a handful for opponents to deal with in tight. Short punches, grinding control and strong takedowns are a potent combination.

It's not hard to get Lewis to the mat, but he's surprisingly difficult to hold down. On top, Lewis is a monster. His ground strikes are crushingly powerful, his base is heavy and it's nearly impossible to escape once he establishes position.

More than any technical piece of his game, Lewis has great instincts for creating offense. He sneaks in punches and elbows in unexpected places and pours on the strikes when he senses his opponent is hurt.


Prediction

This is a close fight. Nelson is more technical on the feet and on the ground, but he's giving up a massive amount of size and raw strength to Lewis. In an extended and probably slow-paced striking bout, the edge goes to Nelson. In a dirty, scramble-filled war that transitions between striking, the clinch and grappling, the edge should go to Lewis.

The latter scenario seems a bit more likely. The pick is Lewis by knockout in the third round.



Rafael Dos Anjos (25-7; 14-5 UFC) vs. Eddie Alvarez (27-4; 2-1 UFC)

Lightweight champion Dos Anjos looks to make the second defense of his belt against former Bellator kingpin Alvarez in a crackling matchup of elite 155-pounders.

Dos Anjos seemed an unlikely champion when he demolished Anthony Pettis in March 2015, but he cemented himself as the stacked lightweight division's top dog by crushing old foe Donald Cerrone in only 66 seconds last December.

This title shot is effectively a lifetime achievement award for the well-traveled Alvarez, who has fought the best all over the world. He took razor-thin and controversial decisions from Gilbert Melendez and Pettis to get his chance at the belt, but this matchup has just as much to do with the fact that Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson weren't available.

Regardless of the background, this is a fun matchup of elite fighters in their primes with real stakes on the line.

The champion is the most accomplished pressure fighter in the UFC today. The southpaw is relentlessly aggressive, technically sound in every phase and dangerous enough to finish on the feet or on the ground.

The fence is a pressure fighter's ally. Everything Dos Anjos does is based around the idea of forcing his opponent backward using a combination of crisp, skillful footwork and looping strikes to cut off lateral movement. Dos Anjos' footwork forces the opponent backward while kicks, hooks and overhands catch him when he tries to circle away from the fence.

The Brazilian never gives his opponent a moment to breathe. Dos Anjos stays tight, dropping a steady stream of vicious kicks at all levels and head-body punching combinations. If his opponent tries to plant his feet and counter to dissuade Dos Anjos from pressuring, the champion is happy to hang in the pocket and exchange, where his crafty defense means that he eats few perfectly clean shots.

The fence allows Dos Anjos to exchange without fear and to blend his strikes with rugged, effective wrestling. In the middle of the cage, Dos Anjos is solid but not outstanding. Against the cage, with opponents covering up to avoid flurries of hard punches, it's a simple matter for the champion to duck under, grab a double-leg takedown and suck his opponent off the fence. He's truly excellent at this.

Alternatively, Dos Anjos is happy to dive forward into the clinch, where he fires off hard knees and punches before either exiting back to a punching combination or ducking under for another takedown.

Even on the ground, Dos Anjos uses the fence to his advantage. He excels at pinning his opponent's hips in place and then pounding away with a steady stream of hard punches and elbows on top. Passes are a strong suit, and while he's not much of a submission artist there are few more technical or dangerous top games in the division.

Dos Anjos is an above-average defensive wrestler, but he has struggled when faced with elite takedown artists in the past. This is one of the few less-than-elite facets of his game.

Alvarez relies on a stout combination of wrestling and especially boxing. The former Bellator champion has quick, powerful and educated hands, and they form the centerpiece of his game.

While he's no spring chicken at an experienced 32, Alvarez remains quick and athletic. He moves well on his feet, sticking and moving behind a crisp jab and darting right hand. At his best, he slides smoothly in and out of range on sharp angles, dropping vicious head-body combinations of two and four shots while picking his spots to sit down and exchange punches in the pocket. Hard kicks add another dimension to his offense.

At his worst, however, Alvarez spends too long waiting for his opponent at range, firing predictable single shots while throwing wild counters with his head motionless. Defense has never been Alvarez's strong suit, and if he's not moving and cutting angles, he's in trouble. In the pocket, Alvarez relies far too much on his toughness, power and hand speed rather than slick head movement or craft.

Wrestling is the other major dimension of Alvarez's game. He's an outstanding defender of takedowns, and while he's not the craftiest at setting up his shots, his raw strength allows him to bull his opponents into the fence and chain his attempts together.

On top, Alvarez is mostly a control artist, though he packs some power in his ground strikes and has a nice passing game. In transitions, he has a knack for getting to the back, though he also has a bad habit of giving up his own back if tired or hurt.


Prediction

The betting odds seem approximately correct. Alvarez has two paths to victory here: stick and move at range while staying away from the fence at all costs, and hit takedowns whenever possible. He has good footwork that should allow him to escape Dos Anjos' pressure at least part of the time, and the champion's takedown defense isn't impenetrable.

That's a tall order, though. Dos Anjos is relentless and technically sound with his pressure, not a brawling wild man, and his willingness to exchange is bad news for the hittable Alvarez. It's unlikely that Dos Anjos will find much success with his takedowns, but between striking and the clinch he should get the job done.

The pick is Dos Anjos by competitive 49-46 decision.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Fight Night 90 Prelim Predictions
from Kamikaze Overdrive



Mike Pyle (27-11-1) vs Alberto Mina (12-0-0)

In the headlining fight of the UFN 90 prelims, long-time UFC veteran Mike ‘Quicksand’ Pyle battles Alberto ‘Solider of God’ Mina in the Welterweight division. Pyle is coming off a stoppage victory over Sean Spencer, ending a 2-fight losing skid. Mina remained undefeated with a controversial victory over Yoshihiro Akiyama improving to 2-0 in the UFC.

At 77 inches, Mina will have an 3″ reach advantage over Pyle despite standing an identical 6′ tall. Mina is 7 years younger.

A BJJ Black belt, Mina has relied heavily on his grappling game for his success. Submissions have accounted for 6 of his wins, including a trio by armbar. He has also shown decent power in his hands knocking out 5 opponents including a 1st round TKO victory in his promotional debut. The Brazilian has gone outside of the opening round just 3-times.

Mina has landed just 2 of his 17 TDAs over his 2 UFC bouts.

Pyle, a 16-fight UFC veteran, earned his 7th career win via TKO when he finished Spencer. Of his last 6 wins, 5 have come by knockout. Pyle is capable of exchanging at distance, but does his best work at close range in the clinch. Look for him to land short punches, elbows, and knees with his opponent backed against the cage or change levels for a takedown.

Over his last 2 victories, Pyle compiled 131 total strikes including a UFC-personal best 75 against Spencer.

Mina has an impressive finishing rate, but his lack of experience in longer fights is evident in his poor cardio. He was slowing down late in the opening round of his debut before getting the knockout and he was clearly tired against Akiyama. His poor cardio also impacts his technique, as he begins to slow the quality of both his striking and grappling skills take a significant hit. Pyle has been finished 9-times, 5 by knockout. That being said, the majority of his losses have come against top-level competition. Pyle will need to endure the early onslaught and capitalize on Mina as he begins to slow down. Pyle has the skills to prevent Mina from dragging him to the mat and he will get the better of the exchanges while standing. ‘Quicksand’ will find success at distance against his less refined opponent, before overwhelming Mina with his hard-hitting clinch

my prediction is Mike Pyle to defeat Alberto Mina by TKO.



John Makdessi (12-5-0) vs Mehdi Baghdad (11-3-0)

In the Lightweight division, Canadian John ‘The Bull’ Makdessi returns to action against France’s Mehdi ‘The Sultan’ Baghdad. Makdessi has just a single win over his last 4 fights, most recently falling to Yancy Medeiros by split-decision. Baghdad debuted on short notice against Chris Wade and lost via opening round submission- ending his 7-fight winning streak.

Mehdi is 5 inches taller and will have a sizeable 7″ reach advantage.

Makdessi is a striker, holding black belts in both Karate and Taekwondo. He has recorded 9 wins by knockout, stopping 3 in the UFC. The Canadian implements a largely kicking based attack, utilizing a lot of spinning and front leg kicking techniques. He will also fire out a spearing left jab and hard left hook. John’s offense is almost entirely devoid of a grappling component- completing zero takedowns inside the Octagon.

‘The Bull’ has out-landed his opponent in 7 straight fights, including a pair of controversial decisions losses where he won the striking battle by a combined 175-120 total.

Coming from a Muay Thai background, Baghdad has a 100% finishing rate- knocking out his opponent in 8 of his 11 wins. Mehdi mixes up his strikes well and will sit down on his strikes allowing him to generate decent power as a result. Conversely, he tends to be a little too stationary when engaging and lacks consistency in his offensive output.

Baghdad defeated Artem Lobov via decision in his opening TUF 22 bout, before bowing out to Julian Erosa in the next round.

This fight will be primarily contested on the feet, but Baghdad has shown a recent inclination to his submission game with a trio of tap outs in his last 6 wins. Makdessi should be the more active striker and will consistently find a home for his power strikes against a foe willing to sit in the pocket and trade. Mehdi tends to throw wide strikes and the more straight forward offense of the Canadain will serve as a nice counter. Despite the reach advantage of Baghdad, look for him to routinely get tagged as he comes forward. Makdessi has had issues distancing himself in close fights, but look for his volume and power to be the difference makers here

my prediction is John Makdessi to defeat Mehdi Bagdad by decision.



Anthony Birchak (12-3-0) vs Dileno Lopes (19-2-0)

Coming off his first career loss by knockout Anthony Birchak squares off with Brazilian Dileno Lopes in the Bantamweight division. Birchak was KOed by Thomas Almeida, dropping his UFC record to a precarious 1-2- with his lone victory coming via knockout over Joe Soto. Lopes is also coming off a loss, dropping a decision to Reginaldo Vieira in his TUF tournament finals to end his 5-fight winning streak.

Birchak is 3 inches taller and will have a sizeable 4″ reach advantage. He is also the younger man by 4 years.

The American is an incredibly aggressive fighter, which can be both overwhelming for his opponent or open Birchak up to getting countered. He has finished all but 2 of his 12 wins, ending 6 in the opening round. Anthony has also been finished in all 3 of his losses- all in the opening round. He is incredibly aggressive, moving forward behind his punches to increase the impact. Birchak is a former NCAA Division 2 wrestler. On the mat, look for him to land heavy GnP, but his willingness to give up position for submission is concerning.

Birchak is a perfect 6-0 in fights that go beyond the opening round.

Lopes went for it early in the tournament finals, attempting multiple submissions and slugging it out with his foe. Unfortunately, he was unable to maintain his pace, slowed, and drop the decision. He has a finish heavy record, going the distance just twice in victory compared to 16 finishes- 12 by sub. Dileno has recorded 9 wins by his signature guillotine choke. He has some pop in his hands, but tends to be a little stiff and his output wanes in longer fights.

Lopes picked up a pair of tournament wins on route to the TUF Brazil 4 finals; subbing Bruno Silva in the quarter-finals and taking a decision over Matheus Nicolau in the semis.

Birchak used a tonne of forward pressure against Almeida and was having success landing punches and backing him up. He should implement a similar attack against Lopes, which will serve to dimish the Brazilian’s cardio if Anthony is unable to finish him early. The aggression of Anthony will be further augmented by his reach and height advantages. Lopes will struggle to counter Birchak simply because he won’t be able to reach him. Birchak needs to mind his neck if he elects to shoot on Lopes, but once on the mat his size advantage should pay dividends. Birchak’s aggression can put him at a defensive deficit, but against an undersized opponent it should prove too much for Lopes to deal with

my prediction is Anthony Birchak to defeat Dileno Lopes by TKO.



Russell Doane (14-5-0) vs Pedro Munhoz (11-2-0 1NC)

In the Bantamweight division, a pair of fighters looking to get back in the win column collide as former Tachi Palace Fights champ Russell Doane takes on former Resurrection Fighting Alliance champion Pedro ‘The Young Punisher’ Munhoz. Doane has lost back to back fights to Iuri Alcantara and Jerrod Sanders after starting his UFC run 2-0. Munhoz was 2-1 after a win over Sanders before the result was ruled a No Contest for a failed drug test- he dropped a split decision to Jimmie Rivera in his return.

Doane is the slightly taller fighter, but he will have a sizeable reach advantage at 6 inches. Doane has been on the shelf for a year after pulling out of his last fight with an injury.

Ring rust seemed to get the better of Munhoz in his return against Rivera, but he still had his moments. Pedro was unable to match the output of his opponent, but did hurt him during an exchange. He is a legit double threat, with dangerous submission skills and a capable striking offense. He is a BJJ Black belt with 6 wins by sub, 3 coming by guillotine- with a 4th getting washed out with the No Contest. On the feet, he throws hard kicks to all areas of the body and has some pop in his hands.

Munhoz made his UFC debut on short notice and dropped a decision against top-ranked Raphael Assuncao.

A BJJ Blue belt, Doane is a capable grappler. He has a 6-pack of sub wins including an impressive debut choke out of BJJ Black belt Leandro Issa. Takedowns have been a key aspect of his offense, landing 10 over his last 3 fights. Conversely, he has given up 9 takedowns during his UFC run and while he is a capable scrambler, his willingness to grapple with his opponents has got him in trouble. Before signing with the UFC, Doane was subbed by Michinori Tanaka because he continued to engage Tanaka on the mat and he had similar issues getting out-positioned in the Sanders loss.

Doane has been on the wrong end of the striking totals in each of his last 3 fights, failing to surpass 25 significant strikes mark in any of those bouts.

In Pedro’s 2 UFC losses, the keys to his opponent’s success have been volume striking and limiting the ground exchanges. Neither of which are strong aspects of Doane’s game. Munhoz is not an easy guy to take down and is still dangerous even from his back. Look for Pedro to find success with his own takedowns, threaten with submissions, or at the very least nullify Doane’s attempts to get the fight to the mat. If Doane is unable to put Munhoz down with regularity and hold the position, he will struggle to match the output or impact of the Brazilian during the vertical exchanges. Doane is simply too willing to engage on the mat at all costs where Pedro is most dangerous

my prediction is Pedro Munhoz to defeat Russell Doan by submission.



Felipe Arantes (17-7-1 2NC) vs Jerrod Sanders (15-3-0)

In 1 of 4 Bantamweight fights on the card, Felipe Arantes takes his second bout in the division when he fights Jerrod ‘J-Reazie’ Sanders. Arantes submitted Yves Jabouin in his divisional debut last August to improve to 4-3-1 inside the Octagon. Sanders earned his first UFC win over fellow under carder Russell Doane after going winless over his first pair of UFC showings.

Arantes formerly competed at Featherweight and Sanders debuted in the UFC at 155 pounds. Both men are 5’8″, but Felipe will have a slight 1″ reach advantage along with being 9 years younger than his foe.

Arantes spent the majority of the Jabouin fight on his back; giving up a pair of takedowns before snatching up Yves’s arm in the final minute of the round. He is a BJJ Brown belt with 5 submission wins, with his last win by tap out prior to Yves coming back in 2010. His striking has been at the forefront of his offense and he is 7-0 in fights ended by knockout. Felipe does a decent job of varying his attack, but his output numbers aren’t strong at 2.59 SLpM compared to 2.41 SApM.

Arantes is a dismal 5-5 in fights that go the distance and has been out-struck in his last 4 outings along with giving up 18 takedowns over 8 UFC bouts.

Sanders defeated Doane by avoiding the striking exchanges, getting the fight to the mat, and working his way to the superior position. He is a former NCAA Division 1 wrestler and BJJ Blue belt. He has 6 wins by submission, including 3 by D’Arce choke. His takedown game wasn’t overly impressive, taking desperation shots every time Russell attacked. If he was unable to complete the shot, he turtled up and waited until Doane made a mistake to gain either top position or back mount. In similar fashion, against Pedro Munhoz he attempted to hit a reactive TD after a striking exchange and got caught in a guillotine.

Sanders has been finished in both of his career losses, excluding the submission defeat against Munhoz that was overturned.

Arantes has had trouble defending his opponents’ takedowns, but he has shown himself to be pretty decent in a scramble and will attack off his back. The key to beating Sanders is to disengage whenever he attempts to grapple. Doane was having a lot of success with his striking, but once they hit the mat it was a different story. The way Sanders reacts to getting hit isn’t encouraging and if he is unable to score takedowns with consistency, he will be severely out-gunned on the feet. Arantes will force Jerrod to work hard on the ground, wear him down, and find more success avoiding the mat game- potentially scoring his own takedowns later in the fight. Arantes will either hurt Sanders with strikes either during the vertical exchanges or from top position

my prediction is Felipe Arantes to defeat Jarrod Sanders by TKO



Gilbert Burns (10-1-0) vs Lukasz Sajewski (13-1-0)

In the Lightweight division, Gilbert ‘Durinho’ Burns looks to rebound from his first career loss when he takes on promotional sophomore Lukasz ‘Wookie’ Sajewski. Sajewski is also coming off his first career defeat, dropping his UFC debut to Nick Hein. Burns fell to Russian prospect Rashid Magomedov via decision is his last fight after winning a trio of bouts inside the Octagon.

The Brazilian is 2 inches taller than his foe, but they have an identical 71″ reach. Sajewski is 4 years younger, but has been on the shelf for 13-months.

Sajewski’s struggled to match the output of his foe in his debut and dropped a lackluster decision. He is a gritty fighter with a pretty decent finishing rate. Lukasz has stopped his opponent in 9 of his 13 victories, 7 by submission- 4 by armbar. Against Hein, he attempted to use pressure to cut off the cage but attacked in straight lines and didn’t let his hands when he was in range. When attacking, he has a tendency to overextend and can put himself off balance as a result.

‘Wookie’ has only gone to the 3rd round twice, compared to 7 opening round finishes.

Known for his grappling skills, Burns’s last 2 wins both came by sub bringing his career total to 7 wins. Conversely, he struggled to employ his ground skills in his fights with Magomedov and Alex Oliveira- snatching victory from defeat in the final moments against Oliveira. He has landed 7 takedowns over 4 fights, but couldn’t keep Magomedov on the mat and got lit up on the feet.

Burns has serviceable striking, but its primary purpose is to help him close the distance. He has struggled when his opponent brings pressure and he can’t create separation or counter with a takedown.

Both men have sizeable submission numbers, but Sajewski would be better off trying to keep this fight standing. That being said, the predictable nature of his offense and tendency to over-extend on his strikes will create openings for Burns to time his forward push and change levels for a takedown. While Gilbert struggled with the dangerous repertoire of Magomedov, Lukas doesn’t pose the type of offense that will prevent the Brazilian from engaging and closing the distance. Whether Burns drags his opponent to the mat on his own or catches a reactive takedown, he will eventually put Sajewski on the floor and go to work

my prediction is Gilbert Burns to defeat Lukasz Sajewski by submission.



Marco Beltran (7-4-0) vs Reginaldo Vieira (14-3-0)

The second pairing on the prelims features another battle of TUF tournament competitors as Marco ‘Psycho’ Beltran from TUF Latin American meets TUF Brazil 4 winner Reginaldo Vieira in the Bantamweight division. Beltran has won back to back fights to start his UFC career, most recently defeating Guangyou Ning by decision. Vieira took a win on the scorecards over fellow UFN 90 competitor Dileno Lopes last August to win his season of the TUF tourney and extend his current streak to 3 straight wins.

Mexico’s Beltran is 1″ taller than Reginaldo, but he will have a sizeable 4″ reach advantage. Marco is also the younger man by 4 years.

Beltran’s most recent win was lackluster at best. He utilized his length, primarily in the form of kicks, to keep his opponent out of range. Marco employed good footwork, but the majority of his offense came in the form of single strikes and he benefited tremendously from the lack of output from his foe. ‘Psycho’ had finished all 5 of his pro victories, prior to his back to back decisions inside the Octagon. He has also been finished in all 3 of his losses, twice by sub. In his debut fight, he spent the majority of the action on the mat defending his foe’s submission attempts, but manage to hold top position and slightly out-land his foe.

Prior to entering the TUF house, Beltran was enduring a 3-fight losing streak.

Vieira has submitted his opponent in 9 of his 14 career wins compared to a trio of decision victories. He has also been finished in all 3 of his losses, dropping a pair of pre-UFC encounters with Rony Jason and Pedro Munhoz. During his tenure on the show, he picked up an opening round decision win followed by a submission of Bruno Korea in the semis. Reginaldo isn’t a technically gifted striker, but does throw with decent power and will mix up his offense between punches and kicks. He likes to close the distance behind his strikes, clinch, and look to put his foe on the mat. He has 6 wins by Guillotine, not including his last second sub of Korea.

Against Lopes, the pair traded guillotine attempts early, with neither man securing the win. Once Lopes began to slow down, Vieira outworked him on the feet and the mat.

This bout could very well be decided by distance management. Beltran’s reach has been a key component of his success, keeping his opponents out of range. Conversely, Vieira does his best work on the inside; landing big strikes and setting up his grappling attack. He has a deadly squeeze and will almost certainly target Marco’s neck once they engage in close. Marlon Vera had success attacking Beltran on the mat and once Ning got him to the floor, Marco had to be saved by a questionable ref stand up. That doesn’t bode well against a strong grappler. Vieira’s gas tank is a bit of a question mark, but his aggression on the feet and submission attack should keep Beltran on the defensive for the majority of the exchanges

my prediction is Reginaldo Vieira defeat Marco Beltran by submission.



Vicente Luque (8-5-1) vs Alvaro Herrera (9-3-0)

In the opening fight of the night, Brazil’s Vicente Luque takes on Mexico’s Alvaro Herrera. Herrera debuted with a 30 second knockout of Veron Ramos at UFN 78 for his fifth win over his last 6 fights. Luque is 1-1 in the UFC, rebounding from a tough debut loss to submit TUF 21 fan favourite Hayder Hassan in a rematch from their bout on the reality show.

Herrera is 1″ taller, but will give up an inch of reach to his opponent.

As a pro, Vicente has finished 4 opponents by sub and 3 more by knockout. His last 3 submission victories have all come by anaconda choke and he has ended 6 fights in the opening round. Against Hasan, Luque cut off the cage effectively, backing him up with low kicks until he was able to roll Hayder into the finishing choke. In his loss to Adam Graves, he struggled to remain vertical giving up 7 takedowns on just 10 attempts. He did have a slight edge in significant strikes landed.

Vicente represented the Blackzillians during his time on the Ultimate Fighter, submitting veteran Nathan Coy and then dropping a split decision to Hasan.

After a tentative start in his 30-second debut, Herrera landed a thunderous right uppercut followed by a second power strike from the right side to floor his former TUF teammate. He has finished all of his pro wins, including 5 knockouts- never going past the middle round. On the show, he scored some early ground control, but lost the position and struggled to gain much traction during the ensuring striking or grappling exchanges.

During his run on the second season of TUF Latin America, Herrera represented Team Escudero and failed to advance beyond the quarter-finals- losing by decision.

Herrera’s has been finished in all 3 of his defeats and a record full of short fights goes hand in hand with the apparent cardio issues he had in the second half of his TUF loss. His tendency to give up ground and allow his opponent to control the center of the cage will be ideal for Luque, who has shown himself at his best when he is setting the pace. Alvaro has some power, but he doesn’t set up his strikes well and he is fairly inconsistent with his output. Look for Luque to control the action, back Herrera up to the cage, and eventually drag the fight to the mat where he can start looking for chokes

my prediction is Vicente Luque to defeat Alvaro Herrera by submission.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez Pre-Fight Breakdown+Prediction - UFC Fight Night 90
from Real Men Report



For the past couple of weeks, the UFC audience was taken into ancient times. We remembered what not having an fight card twice a month felt like. To be honest, I kinda missed it. Building the hype up, truly analyzing some of the match-ups, discussing with your friends. It doesn't happen too often, and it makes next week even more special. 35 fights over three days. It's going to be insane. I decided to kick things off with my 'Fight Night 90' main event pre-fight breakdown. The UFC Lightweight Championship bout between current champion Rafael dos Anjos and former two-time Bellator Lightweight Champion Eddie Alvarez could easily be the best war the division has seen.

Rafael Dos Anjos is one of the scariest people to have ever lived. More importantly, he is one of the most well rounded mixed martial artists of all time. His stand up is absolutely brutal, he's a BJJ black belt, and his mental games are exhausting. After losing to Gleison Tibau in 2011, he was able to get to the next level. He suffered some major improvements and the results speak for themselves: he has won 10 out of his 11 last fights, and he's the Lightweight champion.

Now, the most relevant aspect in RDA's game is his pressure. It's insane. From bell to bell, he will get in your face and attempt to cut the ring. If he gets you to the cage, he has quite a few options to drop you. He may unload with ruthless combinations, go for a double leg, or indulge in the clinch to land a couple of big strikes. Said pressure tires you physically and mentally, and it has successfully worked on big names like Nate Diaz, Benson Henderson, Anthony Pettis, and Donald Cerrone. Thing is, none of them operate like Eddie Alvarez.

Eddie, The Silent Assassin, Alvarez is heavily underappreciated amongst the MMA fanbase. Honestly, if you exclusively watch the UFC product, you can probably make a solid case for your dissatisfaction. Since 2012, all of his victories have come via split decision. Regardless, Alvarez is a very dangerous man. A gritty wrestler with incredibly solid standup, he has been in some amazing wars. Time and time again, he has displayed his heart. This kid is tough as nails.

What stands out when it comes to Eddie is his movement. He's great at cutting angles and changing directions to land heavy offense. This also applies to his defense. His lateral movement and circling allows him to stay off the cage. Plus, he's been working with boxing trainer Mark Henry, who can usually come up with rather clever gameplans. If Alvarez is coming out on top, it's now. This is the year of the underdog (Bisping, Miocic, Tate).

How do I see the fight playing out? I sincerely believe Eddie could pull the upset, but RDA is the favorite for a number of reasons. Let's begin by talking about their similarities. After all, MMA is a game of inches. First off, both guys have a stupendous gas tanks. They can go 5 rounds while maintaining composure and discipline. Also, they are competitors to the bone. You will rarely see them backing out of a brawl. If it comes down to it, they will both bite their mouthguard and swing (which is part of the recipe to a phenomenal bout).

In my opinion, there are two keys to the fight. The first one is RDA's wrestling. He has previously shown holes in that aspect. Jason High was tossing him around (until he gassed), while Khabib Nurmagomedov effectively out-wrestled him. It's safe to assume the champ has been working on sharpening his tools since, but his last couple of opponents haven't really attempted to take the fight to the ground. Not saying Alvarez will, but if he finds success during the contest, it may give the current champion a lot of trouble.

Lastly, the crucial key will be Alvarez's freedom of movement. On paper, Eddie should have more success countering RDA's high pressure offense, but we don't know how their styles will clash until they're in the octagon. If Dos Anjos is able to utilize his vicious body kicks to stop Alvarez's circling and push him to the cage, he'll come out on top. If The Underground King manages to avoid RDA's attacks, his countering ability could earn him the title. My heart is saying Eddie, but my brain screams Dos Anjos. While Alvarez can be dropped, he's extremely hard to finish, so I'm predicting Dos Anjos by decision.




Prediction: Dos Anjos via Decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Diggin' Deep on the UFC Fight Night 90 prelims
from Dayne Fox - Bloody Elbow




Mike Pyle (27-11-1) vs. Alberto Mina (12-0), Welterweight

Everyone's favorite mullet-wearing 40-year old returns in his gatekeeper role against an undefeated prospect. Wait... is it accurate to call Mina a prospect when he is already 34?

Pyle has proven that you can continue to make strides as a fighter in the waning years of your career as he has belied his reputation as a grappler by developing a penchant for ending contests with his fists. As he approaches 41, it is near impossible to see him making any jumps in the standing. That doesn't mean that he can't pull out a few wins and win a bonus or two before he hangs up his gloves.

It doesn't feel right to call Mina a prospect when he started his professional career over 10 years ago. Nonetheless, an argument can made that is what he is as he has yet to establish a ceiling on just how high he can climb in the standings. The judo and BJJ expert has only logged two fights in over two years within the UFC. If he wants to make a serious run to the top like he believes that he can, he needs to start fighting more often.

Pyle opened up his career with two TKO wins in his first 21 victories as opposed to 16 submission wins. In the time since, he has registered 5 TKO victories in his last 6 W's. Utilizing a narrow and upright Muay Thai stance, Pyle struggles to avoid punches at a distance with kicks being his primary form of attack. Where he is at his best is against the fence or the clinch as he puts a lot of power into his punches and elbows while also being able to grind away. He's added a step-in knee recently as well to prevent opponents from rushing in or shooting on him. Pyle is also capable of landing a sneaky trip or throw in that range. Another quirk of his is to play possum in hope of drawing his opponent into a trap. If he goes to the ground he'll risk losing position in order to submit his opponent, making him one of the more entertaining ground fighters.

Mina is a Muay Thai practitioner himself who may have more natural power than Pyle. The problem is that he is also a much sloppier striker who leaves himself wide open to the counter. Basically, he's a brawler. His chin has allowed him to find success thus far as he has eaten some good shots, but chins eventually erode. Just ask Dan Henderson or Chuck Liddell. He's resorted to this more than anyone expected upon his UFC entry since his telegraphed shots have been easily stuffed and he hasn't integrated his judo efficiently. If he can get the fight to the ground, he's a world class grappler with smooth guard passes and a knack for the evaporating art of armbars and kimuras.

Worth noting is Pyle's propensity to start slow and Mina's to gas late in fights. Seven of Pyle's career losses came in the first round while Mina resorted to hoping Yoshihiro Akiyama would dive into his guard in the final round of his last appearance. Pyle is known as Quicksand for his ability to make in-fight adjustments to drag his opponents into deeper trouble, illustrated by his last two wins coming with less than a minute until the 15 minute time limit expired. The longer the fight goes, the better shape he'll be in.

Most people will probably be picking Pyle simply because he has the more recognizable name. When you only fight twice in two years with both appearances on Fight Pass as Mina has, few fans will recognize your name. Mina isn't a joke and could end up pulling off the upset, especially early. I don't think that will happen though. Pyle should be able to avoid Mina's power punches early before finding a rhythm and scoring a late finish.

Pyle via TKO of the third round



John Makdessi (13-5) vs. Mehdi Baghdad (11-4), Lightweight

Though this fight is under the radar, it is a serious dark horse for FOTN as it is likely these two vicious strikers will be fighting for their jobs.

Makdessi has been around the UFC for over a half-decade now and has scored some aesthetically impressive wins over that time. Remember his spinning backfist on Kyle Watson? Good times. He is now riding a two-fight losing streak at the hands of Donald Cerrone and Yancy Medeiros. Despite being a fun dude to watch and those losses coming to quality opponents, he probably can't afford a third loss in a row.

Baghdad is coming off of a quick loss to Chris Wade as an injury replacement for his UFC debut following his stint on TUF 22. Anyone else remember his memorable brawl with Artem Lobov to gain entry into the house? Oh yeah... no one watches that show anymore. Having trained with the likes of Dan Henderson and Lyoto Machida throughout his career, Baghdad is more traveled than his record would indicate. His UFC stint could come to a crashing end though with another loss as he did little to acquit himself in his loss to Wade.

Makdessi is an expert at angles, footwork, and distance management, skills that he picked up in his kickboxing career prior to his conversion to MMA. He is successfully able to navigate his opponents reach despite a short 68" reach to successfully establish a jab often followed by a hard right. He has a wide array of kicks as well with spinning and side kicks being the most prominent. Makdessi doesn't get enough credit as a wrestler since he only uses it to keep himself upright -€” he hasn't scored a single takedown in his UFC career -€” but he does a great job of keeping the fight standing which is right where he wants the fight to take place.

Some see Makdessi and Baghdad as being similar fighters which isn't quite true. Yes, there are similarities, but having similarities and being similar fighters are different things. Both prefer to stand and trade and have a lot of kicks in their arsenal, but Baghdad is a much more stationary fighter who is willing to mix in the occasional takedown. Not that his wrestling is great, but he can hit the occasional reactive double-leg. Baghdad has relied a lot on his strong chin and head movement to avoid damage which doesn't seem like a recipe for success against the likes of Makdessi. Look for him to utilize this clinch as much as possible as he has sharp elbows and a nice Thai plum in which to land knees.

The one thing that gives me pause to consider Baghdad scoring the upset is his massive 75"reach. Makdessi has struggled with rangy opponents in the past, dropping fights to Anthony Njokuani, Alan Patrick, and Donald Cerrone who are all longer opponents. Seven inches is a pretty significant disadvantage to overcome. Baghdad doesn't use his jab much other than to gauge distance, so perhaps I'm looking too deep into this.

Baghdad's physical advantages really do give him a great opportunity to upset Makdessi. It would be a different story if Makdessi were the type to drive Baghdad onto his back as quick as possible -€” much like Wade did -€” but Makdessi's style gives Baghdad a greater window of opportunity. Though I'm picking Makdessi as he has improved the depth of his striking in his time in the UFC, don't be surprised to see Baghdad find a way to put the lights out on the Canadian.

Makdessi via decision



Anthony Birchak (12-3) vs. Dileno Lopes (18-2), Bantamweight

Is it an overstatement to declare any time Birchak fights as must-see-TV? Whether it is or isn't, I have yet to be bored watching a fight that he has been in and Lopes is pretty damned entertaining too.

Due to the exciting nature of his fights, Birchak has developed a bit of a cult following in MMA fandom. Considering he only sports a 1-2 UFC record it should say something about how entertaining his fighting style is. That gives him a bit more leeway than it would other fighters with a similar record in terms of job security, but seeing if you have Leonard Garcia-level job security is never a wise strategy.

Lopes is coming off of a controversial loss in the finals of the TUF Brazil 4 tournament. Now he could be in a win-or-go-home situation similar to Birchak. Long a top prospect at flyweight, Lopes appears to have outgrown the division as he is staying at bantamweight after most thought he'd drop down to 125 once the tournament ended. He'd better hope his lack of size doesn't bring him down as it is very noticeable at 135.

A ball of energy in the cage, Birchak prefers circling around his opponent looking for an opening he likes before exploding in to attack. Sometimes he'll leap in there to land a single kick, but usually he's throwing a barrage of punches. Those punches have a nice bit of power behind them, just not necessarily technique. Owning a background in wrestling, he is willing to mix in the occasional single-leg if he feels he is taking too much damage on the feet, though he is more liable to reach for a Thai plum than look for the takedown. He has some vicious knees and cutting elbows from there. Simply put, he is a whirling dervish of violence.

Lopes pushes a very fast pace as well, but takes a much more measured approach in his striking. He will occasionally flash a burst of violence, though he is much more inclined to sit back and counter with simple 1-2 combinations. His kicks to the body and legs might be his best overall strike as he is able to put a lot of power behind those. Then again, he has finished a number of opponents with his fists recently. His signature move is his guillotine, usually obtained by latching onto his standing opponent and holding on with all that he has until they tap or pull their head out. It didn't work for him again Reginaldo Vieira in the tournament, but he went for it three times and came close to getting the tap every time.

We really haven't seen any grappling out of Birchak thus far outside of being heel hooked by Ian Entwistle and it's unlikely we'll see much out of him offensively in those terms, as he would rather put his fists in an opponent's face than search for a submission. He'll probably need to sharpen his defensive chops though as Lopes has a surprisingly powerful double-leg. Don't be surprised to see if he can time that as Birchak looks to move in for the kill. Though he can fall into bouts of inactivity from the top position, Lopes has a nose for getting his opponents back in the midst of a scramble.

I strongly leaned towards picking Lopes for the upset as he has a more complete game, a solid chin, and could very well end up cinching in that guillotine. I can't get past his lack of size though and believe he'll struggle to navigate Birchak's wild swings while getting his own in. It should be fun while it lasts, which probably won't be long.

Birchak via TKO of the first round



Russell Doane (14-5) vs. Pedro Munhoz (11-2, 1 NC), Bantamweight

Once upon a time, Doane and Munhoz were two of the brightest prospects in the bantamweight division. That was two years ago. Now they could be fighting to keep their jobs.

Doane seems to be the greater disappointment of the two due to an upset loss to Jerrod Sanders in his last appearance. No one doubts that he has the talent or toughness to burst into the rankings in short order. It's his fight IQ that has been questioned. Rapidly approaching 30, he isn't as young as many think he is either which means he'll need to make his move up the standings soon if he is ever going to make it.

Munhoz has taken a much stranger journey after battling the Nova Scotia Boxing Commission over his testosterone levels from a fight in October 2014. They weren't recorded above the legal limit, but they were higher than they had previously been in an earlier test which resulted in his victory over the aforementioned Sanders being overturned to a no contest. Upon his return he dropped a decision to Jimmie Rivera in one of 2015's most underrated fights. He too is quickly approaching 30.

Doane's reputation is that of a scrambler and submission specialist, but he is pretty well-rounded overall. He has shown a weakness to superior wrestlers, but that is the only major chink in his armor. He actually has some decent takedown capabilities himself and good ground strikes to create openings for his guard passing as he looks for submissions. Even if he doesn't finish the takedown, he's just happy creating a scramble as there are few out there who can beat him to position on a regular basis.

Ironically enough, Munhoz might be one of the few who can do just that as he is a hell of a scrambler himself. While not quite as quick as Doane, Munhoz is only a half-step slower at most while being exceptionally technical in his BJJ. He beautifully blends his wrestling with his grappling to effortlessly control while looking for appropriate openings to sink in a submission. His weakness is getting the fight to the ground as he telegraphs his shots since he struggles to set up his takedowns as it is a chore for him to get within striking distance without eating too much damage due to his short 64" reach. If he can navigate that issue, he's actually good at changing levels effectively.

The battle on the feet should the big X-factor as there is a good chance their grappling skills will cancel one another out. Doane sporadically puts together boxing combinations, but isn't very consistent in that regard as he'll often resort to just winging hard hooks looking for the kill shot. Munhoz is much more regular in putting together volume as he throws a steady stream of hard leg kicks when he can't get within punching range. When he is within range, he puts together slick punching combinations with occasional stopping power.

Some of the better matchmaking Sean Shelby has done, this should be a hell of a contest. There are many similarities between these two, though I'd say that Munhoz owns a slight advantage in every area except for power. That often enough turns out to be the great equalizer, but Munhoz's chin and other skills should be enough to get him the judge's nod in this case.

Munhoz via decision



Felipe Arantes (17-7-1, 2 NC) vs. Jerrod Sanders (15-2 1 NC), Bantamweight

Not a lot of intrigue involved in this match as neither appear to have potential beyond being a mid-tier gatekeeper. Filler would be the most appropriate word to use here. Alas, it is my job to let you know what to expect.

Arantes has the greater amount of potential between the two as he is younger at 28 compared to Sanders' age of 36. Perhaps more telling he is relatively new to the bantamweight division as this will be his sophomore effort after spending the earlier portion of his UFC career at featherweight. Perhaps he can actually make a run in his new home, but there are still far too many questions surrounding him to anticipate that.

Sanders' limited skill set and age make it hard to see him having much success outside of beating up the bottom dwellers of the division. He is coming off of a win in his last appearance, but he was disposed of pretty quickly in his first two UFC contests in a noncompetitive manner. The best way to put it is he can steal a win or two, but he is going to be the underdog in just about any fight he has in the UFC.

Arantes offense is centered around kicks as his punches consist of fairly wild hooks thrown with power but not much accuracy. The kicks are thrown with more control than his punches and he throws them to all areas of his opponent's anatomy. Though he isn't the most powerful striker, he hits hard enough that his power needs to be respected. Arantes falls into periods of inactivity that not only result in him not landing much volume, but also eating a lot of damage in the process as he'll fail to respond.

Fortunately for Arantes, Sanders isn't much of a standup threat. He's improved his boxing a bit and can at least boast a decent left hook at this point. The problem is that he automatically resorts back to his wrestling which he honed at Oklahoma State as an All-American as soon as he gets hit. He has a massive frame for a bantamweight with a powerful though not especially quick shot. He showed more athleticism than most thought he possessed previously by holding his own against Russell Doane in scrambling situations, taking his back numerous times.

This could spell trouble for Arantes as his biggest weakness has been avoiding the takedowns from his opposition. He's been able to stay competitive on the ground thanks to his active submissions off of his back which also help open up the possibility for sweeps from there. Sanders has struggled to maintain control on the ground when he goes for the finish which offers Arantes a glimmer of hope on the ground. Perhaps fighting smaller opponents at 135 will help Arantes in stuffing his opponent's takedowns, but it didn't seem to do much against Yves Jabouin.

This should be academic as Sanders is far too one-dimensional to find any sustained success in the modern version of the UFC. What gives me pause is he beat Russell Doane who I would favor ahead of Arantes. I'm still going with Arantes as Sanders has proven himself to be prone to being finished. I'm just not sure if it will be a submission or strikes.

Arantes via TKO of the second round



Gilbert Burns (10-1) vs. Lukasz Sajewski (13-1), Lightweight

Uber prospect Burns just suffered his first career setback and now the UFC is setting him up to get back on track by matching him up with a European whom they have no plans for.

We should have seen the signs that Burns wasn't ready for the big time when he struggled with a short notice Alex Oliveira in his last victory, before losing a one-sided decision to Rashid Magomedov. There is no reason to give up on him yet as these types of pitfalls are typical for a prospects development. He doesn't have too much tread on his tires so turning 30 later this month shouldn't be too much of a concern for him.

Sajewski has a lot of heart and toughness. What he doesn't have is a lot of the physical skills necessary to find success on the higher levels. That doesn't mean that he can't find a win or two in the UFC since being in the organization doesn't automatically mean you're fighting at the highest level anymore. He'll need to step up his game in a hurry as he's likely to be cut with a loss here.

Burns came into the UFC with a reputation as an exceptionally high level BJJ practitioner. While that isn't necessarily untrue, it is a bit unfair as he is more than that. He's received good training with the Blackzilians to turn him into a sound striker as he puts together simple boxing combinations and throws some impressive kicks as well. Despite those improvements, he tends to lose confidence in his striking once he has been pieced up a bit, beginning to fight tentatively which leads to him eating more damage.

The big problem with Sajewski is volume. Though he does a good job applying pressure, he spends too much time looking for the right opening and often throwing from too far from the outside for the punch to have any real chance of landing. Other times he simply telegraphs what he's going to do to give his opponent enough time to no longer be in the vicinity. He mixes in push and leg kicks a little here and there, but he could certainly do himself favors if he increased their output.

Sajewski's strength comes in the same area where Burns is at his best: grappling. He isn't nearly as smooth or technically sound as the former World BJJ champion is. Even if he were, Sajewski's wrestling is lacking which leaves questions as to how he would get the fight to the ground anyway. To his credit, he is dogged in his approach as he chains his attempts together to achieve some success here and there. Burns' takedown defense was shaky in his appearance against Magomedov, but most people haven't tried to get him to the ground as his positional control is outstanding in addition to his seamless guard passing and submissions.

To be blunt, I can't see how Sajewski wins this outside of a lucky punch. Even that seems incredulous as he lacks power. The key for Burns will be to avoid any mental breakdowns in order to put together a complete performance. If he can't do that he'll lose some of the shine off of his star even if he picks up a win. I think he does it here.

Burns via submission of the first round



Marco Beltran (7-3) vs. Reginaldo Vieira (13-3), Bantamweight

Coming off of his TUF Brazil 4 tournament victory, the UFC is offering Vieira a softball in Mexico's Beltran. Then again, Beltran has pulled off a couple of upsets already....

Beltran was the underdog in both of his previous UFC appearances and was able to walk out the winner both times, extending his stay when most expected him to be a one-and-done fighter. Granted that neither Marlon Vera nor Guangyou Ning had as much experience as Vieira, he is now facing the biggest challenge of his career by a wide margin.

Vieira isn't a youngster by any means at the age of 33. That means his window of finding UFC success is limited as the smaller weight classes tend to fall prey to the pitfalls of age sooner than the larger dudes. There isn't an exorbitant amount of tread on his tires for his experience level, so perhaps he can defy the odds as fellow TUF Brazil winner Leonardo Santos has done and find UFC success well into his mid-30's.

Beltran is a pretty solid athlete with a 69" reach which usually gives him an advantage over most of his opponents. Now if only he could find a way to consistently use the tools. He doesn't set up his strikes, often throwing kicks or punches easy to see coming. Adding a jab or utilizing feints would go a long way toward making him a more competent striker. He does put together good boxing combinations from time to time when pressuring his opponent which are his most effective strikes.

Beltran may actually throw more technical strikes than Vieira, he just doesn't throw nearly as many. Vieira's punches largely consist of looping hooks to the head with the occasional straight shot to the body. Often times he uses the hooks as a means to cover distance in hopes of shooting for a takedown or getting the clinch. Speaking of the clinch, that is where he is most comfortable from the standing position as he alternates knees with hard punches. He does tend to get wild and leave himself wide open for a counter in the process.

Fortunately for Vieira his wheelhouse is on the ground where you will find few who go after submissions with more aggression than he does. Guillotines (including the standing type) and armbars tend to be his preferred method. Beltran will mix in the occasional takedown and is solid in scrambles, but has a shallow overall grappling game. Vieira's wrestling isn't that great, but if he can find a way to get Beltran to the ground I don't see Beltran getting back up without spending significant time being controlled or submitted.

I feel as though Beltran is a lower level of competition than Vieira should be getting, but I suppose he deserves a chance against higher competition after picking up two wins against the lesser competitors of the division. Like Sajewski, Beltran hasn't shown enough power to make a flash KO a wise prediction. Vieira should score an easy victory here.

Vieira via submission of the second round



Vicente Luque (8-5-1) vs. Alvaro Herrera (9-3), Welterweight

Likely to end up as a trivia question as the bout to open up the weekend of UFC 200 rather than any major implications, Luque and Herrera should open things up right in terms of entertainment value at the very least.

While no one is comparing him to Kamaru Usman -€” the winner of the season -€” Luque is one of the better young talents to come out of TUF 21. Only 24, he still has plenty of time to continue to hone his abilities and become a mainstay on the UFC roster. Being an entertaining fighter sure doesn't hurt his staying power potential either.

Herrera is on a shorter leash than Luque. Despite having a better record, being roughly the same age, and having been in the sport about the same amount of time, he has faced considerably lower competition on the Mexican circuit. Translation: he still has a lot to prove. Luque stands a good chance of sticking around if he loses whereas Herrera is likely to be cut if he is the one to fall short.

Luque has shown a very well-rounded skill set with one major hole in his arsenal: his wrestling defense. Michael Graves took him down at will in their UFC debuts, painting a massive target for opponents to go after. Fortunately for Luque, Herrera doesn't have nearly the wrestling pedigree of Graves which should allow Luque to showcase his varied talents. He's at his best when he is able to establish a rhythm with his boxing, establishing his jab and following up with some pretty combinations with a good mix to the body and head. He displays occasional power, though the likelihood of him scoring a flash KO is significantly lower than seeing him wear out his opponent with sheer volume.

Herrera's biggest advantage will come in the power department as he wings hard hooks that can turn out his opponent's lights in a hurry. It isn't technically pretty, but he's proven its effectiveness when he was able to score a KO 30 seconds into his official UFC debut. The issue is that his gas tank runs shallow when he can't score an early KO and he starts to fight with his hands low with long periods of inactivity. Luque has shown a pretty good tank which is why Herrera will need to get him out of there in a hurry to find a high likelihood of victory.

Herrera isn't completely without wrestling as he has a powerful shot early in the fight. He just doesn't have the doggedness to maintain the approach over the course of 15 minutes as he tends to pretty much sit in top position before the referee stands up the fight due to inactivity. He can't expect to do that time and again as Luque has an active guard where he's willing to throw up submissions or sweep his opponent to their back. Though Luque isn't great at stopping takedowns, he's more than capable of scoring the occasional one for himself.

I really don't like Herrera's chances against a higher level of competition. He's never made it into the third round and doesn't appear to have tank to be effective that far into a fight. Luque is well coached and fantastic at nabbing transitional submissions. He'll either grab one or put the finishing touches on a worn out Herrera with his fists late in the fight.

Luque via TKO of the third round

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Main Card Parlay for UFC Fight Night 90
from MMA Odds Breaker



Welterweight bout: Alan Jouban (-125) vs Belal Muhammad (+105)

Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a striker vs striker match-up in the UFC’s welterweight division and I think there is a good chance we see some fireworks when these two square off. Following a first round knockout at the hands of Albert Tumenov, Jouban returned to the win column with a first round TKO of Australia’s Brendan O’Reilly and will now be aiming to make it two in a row against short-notice promotional newcomer Muhammad. The former Titan FC welterweight champion captured the title with a unanimous decision victory over WSOF veteran Steve Carl and parlayed it into a contract with the UFC. Replacing an injured Nordine Taleb on short notice during Ramadan, the Muslim fighter hopes to pick up his first UFC victory and stay undefeated as a professional mixed martial artist. Training out of Roufusport MMA in Milwaukee, WI, he should be prepared for his debut, even on short notice. I think he is a solid fighter at 170-pounds but would have a brighter future competing in the UFC’s 155-pound division, as I think welterweights in the UFC will prove to be too much for him; and I think that is likely to start with Jouban, who will have a size and strength advantage over Muhammad heading into this contest. They are both excellent strikers but I think Jouban lands a larger number of significant strikes and is more likely to finish the fight, despite being the fighter with the weaker chin of the two. I think Jouban’s Octagon experience will also benefit him in this contest, while I expect some first-time jitters from the promotional newcomer. I think Jouban should be a 2-to-1 betting favorite heading into this welterweight scrap, so I like him at his current near coin-flip offering price of -125.

Gabe’s Call: Jouban by T/KO (strikes, 2:01 round 1)



Lightweight bout: Joseph Duffy (-370) vs Mitch Clarke (+310)

Gabe’s Thoughts: I believe Duffy is the superior mixed martial artist heading into this 155-pound contest, and though I am a fan of Clarke’s and believe he is always a game opponent, I think he is biting more than he can chew here. That said, it is worth noting that he was in that position before against Al Iaquinta, and ever being dominated in the first round, he caught Iaquinta with a D’Arce choke in the second and put him to sleep, ultimately earning the biggest and most impressive victory of his professional mixed martial arts career. I see Duffy’s superior boxing being the difference in this match-up. I think he keeps this fight standing and outboxed Duffy either to a unanimous decision victory on the scorecards or a possible finish along the way. Even at his current heavily juiced asking price of -370, I think there’s value in Duffy, as I think he should be a 5-to-1 betting favorite heading into this contest. I think this match-up is stylistically tailor-made for him to return to the win column in impressive fashion, following his first Octagon defeat, which came via unanimous decision against Dustin Poirier at UFC 195 six months ago.

Gabe’s Call: Duffy by T/KO (punches, 0:51 round 1)



Gabe’s Recommended Parlay: Jouban (-125) and Duffy (-370) at +128 for 3.35u to win 4.3u

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Live Dogs for UFC Fight Night 90
from MMA Odds Breaker



Lightweight title bout: Rafael dos Anjos (-370) vs Eddie Alvarez (+310)

Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this 155-pound title fightis a lot closer than the betting odds currently indiciate. I think dos Anjos should be a -150 betting favorite heading into this bout, so at these odds, I think Alvarez holds a ton of value and is worth of a wager. I would not fault anybody for going bigger on this play than I am myself. I could really see this fight playing out so many different ways, several of those which include Alvarez getting his hand raised, so there’s no way I could justify taking dos Anjos at -370. I do believe this is a “dog or pass” situation and I see too much value in the dog to pass it up.

Gabe’s Call: Alvarez by Split Decision (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Alvarez (+310) 2.5u to win 7.75u



Lightweight bout: John Makdessi (-165) vs Mehdi Baghdad (+145)

Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a “striker vs striker” match-up in the UFC’s lightweight division. Both 155-pounders will be looking to get into the win column in this potential “loser goes home” scrap, with Makdessi coming off a split decision loss to Yancy Medeiros and Baghdad coming off a first round rear naked choke defeat against Chris Wade. I think Baghdad will land the more significant strikes in this contest, and while Makdessi may outland him in volume, I think the significant in strikes and damage will be the difference should the fight hits the judges’ scorecards for a decision. On top of that, I think Baghdad is the fighter more likely to secure a T/KO finish. I think he is the stronger fighter of the two, as well as the fighter with the better chin. He also has a grappling advantage, but I don’t expect this fight to hit the mat. I think he either catches Makdessi and puts him away or takes this on the judges’ scorecards.

Gabe’s Call: Baghdad by T/KO (punches, 4:11 round 1)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Baghdad (+145) 3.45u to win 5u

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC Fight Night 90 predictions
by Alexander K. Lee - The Score



Rafael dos Anjos (14-5 UFC, 25-7)
vs.
Eddie Alvarez (2-1 UFC, 27-4)

It's no stretch to say that Eddie Alvarez is the toughest title fight opponent for Rafael dos Anjos yet. Considering that list includes Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone, that tells you something about the tools Alvarez brings into this matchup.

Simply put, Alvarez is a tough out. If Dos Anjos is expecting to blow him out of the water as he did Cerrone and Benson Henderson, he could find himself in trouble. The pair of decision wins Alvarez eked out to earn this title shot are not indicative of his finishing potential.

These two are evenly matched in their smarts, patience, and even in the clinch, though Dos Anjos should have the slight edge there.

In the striking department, Alvarez could benefit from turning this fight into a slugfest. He has the chin for it, and it would be interesting to see if Dos Anjos resists falling for that trap.

As great as Dos Anjos has been, the thought that Alvarez hasn't yet completely revealed his hand in his brief UFC career leaves the door open for him to finally unleash his massive potential and upset Dos Anjos on Thursday.

THE PICK: Alvarez



Roy Nelson (8-8 UFC, 21-12)
vs.
Derrick Lewis (6-2 UFC, 15-4)

Derrick Lewis saw the scorecards a couple of times early in his career and he didn't like it. He hasn't gone to a decision in five years, and that trend should continue when he collides with ham-fisted heavyweight Roy "Big Country" Nelson.

It might take a few minutes for the sparks to fly, but once they do, someone is going to get cracked and put down hard. In his last fight against Gabriel Gonzaga, Lewis showed that he's a battering ram on his feet as well as a jackhammer on the ground.

"The Black Beast" is just a little bit quicker on the draw than Nelson at this stage of their careers, so look for him to become the second man to knock out Nelson inside the Octagon.

THE PICK: Lewis



Alan Jouban (4-2 UFC, 13-4)
vs.
Belal Muhammad (0-0 UFC, 9-0)

This fight is as dangerous as they come for Alan Jouban, a fighter with knockout power who could become overconfident against a short-notice opponent. Newcomer Belal Muhammad has the boxing background to deal with an aggressive Jouban.

If Muhammad comes in with the game plan of waiting for Jouban to make a mistake, he’ll eventually find an opening to land combinations, takedowns, and maybe even a finishing blow. Jouban is a solid welterweight, so Muhammad will have to be on top of his game if he wants to impress in his debut.

THE PICK: Muhammad



Joseph Duffy (2-1 UFC, 14-2)
vs.
Mitch Clarke (2-3 UFC, 11-3)

Mitch Clarke is a sneaky good lightweight with a subpar record that belies his true talents. He's a great grappler and extremely difficult to finish. The possibility is there for him to outwrestle Duffy to earn a decision or possibly score a submission.

However, Duffy enters the match having lost a prolonged and bloody battle with Dustin Poirier. Those kinds of performances tend to bring out the best in fighters in their next outing.

The unorthodox striking style of "Irish Joe" is also sure to give Clarke headaches, especially if Duffy is able to get off early. This will be a bounce-back performance for Duffy.

THE PICK: Duffy

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Predictions for UFC Fight Night 90
from The MMA Way



Mark's Picks

dos Anjos TKO Round 3
Lewis TKO Round 2
Jouban DEC
Duffy DEC
Pyle DEC
Makdessi DEC
Birchak DEC
Munhoz DEC
Arantes DEC
Burns DEC
Vieira DEC
Luque DEC


James Picks

dos Anjos TKO Round 3
Nelson TKO Round 2
Muhammad DEC
Duffy TKO Round 3
Pyle DEC
Makdessi DEC
Birchak DEC
Munhoz DEC
Sanders DEC
Burns SUB Round 1
Vieira SUB Round 2
Luque DEC

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Toe-to-Toe: UFC Fight Night 90 Preview and Predictions
from Combat Press


Combat Press writers Chris Huntemann and Zach Aittama seek to answer the above questions and more in this edition of Toe-to-Toe.


Eddie Alvarez, long thought to be the best lightweight not in the UFC, now gets his crack at becoming the best lightweight in the UFC. Will he succeed?

Aittama: Eddie Alvarez, UFC lightweight champion. Those are words I never thought I would hear when the Philly native signed with Bellator in 2009. It’s not that I thought he could never compete at the upper echelon of the lightweight division — Alvarez is one of the top lightweights to ever compete in MMA — but I truly never thought I would see the day Alvarez made his way to the UFC.

Alvarez impressed early and often in his career before making his way to the bigger shows of the time. After advancing to the finals of the Dream lightweight grand prix, he sustained an injury that led to the postponement of his fight with Shinya Aoki. Alvarez eventually lost to the submission specialist when Aoki wrapped up a heel hook in just over 90 seconds. The setback was just Alvarez’s second loss in 17 bouts. He immediately got back in the win column after taking home the inaugural Bellator lightweight tournament and subsequent marquee showdowns. Alvarez claimed his 21st career win against former Bellator featherweight champion Pat Curran before facing off with the undefeated Michael Chandler. Chandler locked up the rear-naked choke in the fourth round in a shocking upset after what was considered one of the best fights in 2011. Alvarez took the loss in stride, knocking out the aforementioned Aoki and Patricky Freire in his next two bouts.

Alvarez’s next fight came after signing with the UFC on an eight-fight deal. Unfortunately, the showdown happened in the courtroom and not the Octagon. Alvarez’s long-awaited UFC debut was put on hold when Bellator remained in control of Alvarez’s services. In a move that seemed to backfire for the Bjorn Rebney-run Bellator, Alvarez got his revenge on Chandler after another phenomenal championship bout in 2013. A scheduled third bout between the budding rivals never came to fruition when Rebney was let go, presumably to Mexico, and former Strikeforce head Scott Coker was brought in to run the promotion. Will Brooks, now a UFC fighter himself, stepped in to fight Chandler in Alvarez’s place, throwing a wrench in the plans of the promotion when he won the interim lightweight title. With the aura of the Chandler-Alvarez trilogy fading, Coker and the promotion gave Alvarez his release from the promotion in August 2014.

Alvarez hit a setback in his Octagon debut against former UFC title challenger Donald Cerrone. In his first contract with the promotion, Alvarez was scheduled to make his first appearance in the promotion in a lightweight title bout. That contract didn’t work out, though, so the best lightweight outside of the UFC had to fight his way to a title. The loss to Cerrone didn’t drop Alvarez too far back, however. He fought Strikeforce lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez in his next bout and took home the decision victory in Mexico after a close fight. Alvarez met former UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis next. Alvarez used his superior wrestling and grappling ability to control Pettis, keeping the dangerous striker out of his preferred comfort zone.

Now, here we are, nearly two years later, and Alvarez is fighting for the UFC lightweight title.

Rafael dos Anjos won’t be phased by the accolades, record and fighting style of Alvarez. The Kings MMA product has slowly built one of the most impressive runs in UFC lightweight history behind wins over Pettis, Cerrone (twice), Nate Diaz (twice) and Benson Henderson. Not only has dos Anjos continuously found himself in the win column, but he has dominated almost every fighter in his path. Alvarez will be another large obstacle to overcome.

The beauty of this fight is that it could seemingly take place in any aspect of the sport, or in every aspect. Both men are high-level grapplers with a knack for trading kicks and punches in the pocket. Alvarez has found himself in trouble in his past fights, getting dropped more times than could be counted with two hands (and maybe two feet), but he has shown time and time again that he can fight past any adversity thrown in front of him and come out victorious. I don’t know if the same can be said for dos Anjos. The Brazilian champion has run through his past few opponents, but the last time he was met with adversity, he lost. The undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov took a decision from dos Anjos in the middle of his impressive 11-fight run with only one loss.

Alvarez is a strong wrestler, but he doesn’t nearly have the technical aptitude of Nurmagomedov. Dos Anjos will have an edge on the mat as one of the top grapplers in the division and a longtime Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. Dos Anjos has shown incredible improvement under Rafael Cordeiro. His striking pressure made former champions crumble in under five minutes. However, Alvarez won’t take a backward step, whether he engages dos Anjos on the feet or the ground.

This is a moment the hardcore fans have been waiting for, no matter how the fight plays out. Alvarez has been a huge fan-favorite for a very long time. It feels good to see him finally getting his shot to become the best lightweight in the world. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Alvarez get his hand raised after a closely contested bout, but the safer bet is dos Anjos. He has the all of the tools to prey on the weaknesses of Alvarez, and I believe he does so in a convincing manner.


Huntemann: Geez, I hate having to follow my colleague’s responses. He always writes a friggin’ tome, every single time, and leaves me with nothing but the scraps. Sigh. I’ll do my very best to contribute to this discussion, but once again I’ve been beaten to basically everything I wanted to say.

Alvarez is knocking on the door of being the best lightweight in the UFC. He’s certainly improved over the course of his UFC career. When he debuted against Cerrone in 2014, it looked like Alvarez was a little overwhelmed by the bright lights of the big stage. That is perfectly understandable. The UFC is a huge step up from Bellator, both in competition and in the overall experience.

Alvarez went toe-to-toe with Melendez, and it was every bit as entertaining as you would expect out of a fight between two tough guys who just love throw down and scrap. Alvarez’s toughness was on full display in that contest, and he followed up with a dominating performance against Pettis earlier this year.

However, there are other contenders breathing down Alvarez’s neck to stake their claim as the best lightweight in the UFC. Though he’s battled injuries for the better part of the last two to three years, the aforementioned Nurmagomedov is viewed as an almost unbeatable lightweight when he’s at 100 percent. And there’s Tony Ferguson, who is on an absolute tear, having only lost once in the last four years and having won his last seven fights.

If Alvarez takes the title from dos Anjos, then yes, you can call him the best lightweight in the UFC. But his reign as champion and as the best lightweight in the UFC may not last very long when he sees who will still be waiting for him.



Roy Nelson and Derrick Lewis are two heavyweights with big power, but can either put together a more complete package to contend for the heavyweight belt in the future?

Huntemann: Anyone who pays attention to anything I say — which likely isn’t very many people, let’s just admit it — knows that I’m not the biggest Roy Nelson fan. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a solid fighter. But I never got what his appeal is with fans, beyond his appearance. Yeah, Nelson has great hands and can be counted on to deliver an entertaining performance. But facts are facts, and when he has squared off against the upper tier of the UFC’s heavyweight division, Nelson has come up short. His best wins are probably his knockout of Stefan Struve in 40 seconds or the knockout of a clearly past-his-prime Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira.

What I’m saying is, Lewis has more upside here and is more capable of becoming a contender at heavyweight. He’s gone 6-2 so far in the UFC, and every one of his fights, win or lose, has resulted in a knockout. He’s won three in a row, including a first-round knockout of Gabriel Gonzaga in his last fight.

Nelson will be a good test for Lewis. Nelson is the very definition of a gatekeeper. He’s not a contender himself, but he can help determine if Lewis is ready for the next step up the ladder in the UFC heavyweight division. I think he is.


Aittama: Nelson is a fighter who, despite his inconsistencies, has only lost to the upper echelon of the heavyweight division. Nelson put together his career-best performances what seems like years and years ago, but “Big Country” has had flashes in the proverbial pan. He’ll need to break out the eggs, the bacon and a little smash — I mean hash — if he expects to fry the expectations of “The Black Beast.”

Lewis is a rare commodity at heavyweight. He is a heavy-hitting big guy with finishing power, but that’s not what makes him a rare commodity. Power punching is at a premium in the UFC’s heaviest division. What makes Lewis’s run unique in modern heavyweight MMA is that he is on the better side of 35 years of age. Despite being already into his 30s, Lewis is one of the youngest heavyweights making his way up the rankings. He is sitting at 12th in the latest UFC rankings. Of the fighters sitting in front of him in the heavyweight ranks, he is the youngest fighter by almost two years. Only Stipe Miocic and Travis Browne, at the spry age of 33, are even close.

Lewis’s three-fight winning streak is also one more piece of the puzzle to what makes this fight so exciting. He is one of the few heavyweights moving up the ladder without taking significant setback losses on his journey through the rankings. Nelson returned to the win column in his most recent outing by out-striking Jared Rosholt in a less-than-thrilling affair. He won’t have to contend with a decorated wrestler in Lewis, but he will certainly have his chin tested by a man who has finished all six of his UFC wins.

Don’t count out Nelson’s ability to land his own right hand, but Lewis should have the tools to pull out the victory with a series of heavy shots that forces the referee to stop the bout.



Much was made when the UFC signed “Irish” Joe Duffy in 2014. After all, he was the last person before Nate Diaz to defeat Conor McGregor. There was even talk of Duffy eventually squaring off against McGregor once again under the UFC banner. However, Duffy was defeated by Dustin Poirier earlier this year, seemingly halting his momentum in the process. But is it still too early to write off “Irish” Joe? Or was there really anything there to write off to start with?

Aittama: This answer is pretty simple, so I’ll keep it short and to the point. Not only is Duffy a fighter that has already broken into the top 50 or so fighters in the deepest division in MMA, but he has yet to reach his full potential.

Duffy stepped away from the sport in 2011 to pursue a professional boxing career. He returned to MMA in 2014 with two wins inside the Cage Warriors cage before making his much-anticipated UFC debut in 2015. With two wins inside of the Octagon, Duffy earned a UFC Fight Pass headliner opposite Poirier in his home country of Ireland. Unfortunately, the fight was postponed when Duffy suffered a training injury at the Tristar gym in the week leading up to the fight.

The fight eventually came together as the featured UFC Fight Pass prelim on UFC 195. If not for the incredible “Fight of the Year” contender between Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit in the evening’s main event, Poirier and Duffy would have won “Fight of the Night” honors. Duffy didn’t quite have enough to topple over his first top-10 opponent. That setback doesn’t mean the fans should write off Duffy, and it certainly doesn’t mean Duffy was in any way overrated. I believe the outcome of the fight has more to do with the major improvements Poirier has made to his game since he was defeated by the aforementioned McGregor at UFC 178.

Duffy is a fighter who will continue to improve as he gains more experience in the Octagon. The loss will be beneficial for Duffy in the long run as he gets back in the cage with another strong lightweight. Mitch Clarke will attempt to put Duffy’s aspirations to bed in what should be a scrappy, gritty affair. The Canadian lightweight has shown improvements in his past UFC bouts after getting mixed results since joining the promotion in 2011. Clarke shouldn’t be written off either, as he showed in his third-round submission upset of top lightweight Al Iaquinta. With that said, you won’t find many people getting behind the underdog in this bout. Duffy gets it done and gets some of his detractors back on the hype train.


Huntemann: Do you remember when read-option quarterbacks were all the rage in the NFL a few years ago, thanks to players like Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson? Teams went searching high and low for quarterbacks who could run and throw and keep defenses guessing. Besides Wilson, not many of those players had a long run of success.

This is where I find similarities with Duffy. He got caught up in the wave of attention that has come down on Irish fighters, thanks to the success of McGregor. Now, many people think that Ireland is a breeding ground of MMA fighters that has yet to be tapped. I’m just not sure that’s the case. At least not yet.

Don’t get me wrong. Duffy is a talented fighter. You don’t make it to the UFC if you’re not, regardless of which country you hail from. But there was probably a reason Ireland wasn’t really seen as a hotbed of talent before McGregor came along. Are there talented fighters in Ireland? I have no doubt there are. But world-beaters? The jury is still very much out.

Duffy looked very impressive in winning his first two UFC fights against Jake Lindsey and Ivan Jorge, fighters with solid records. But once Duffy experienced a step up in competition against Poirier earlier this year, he came up on the short end in fairly convincing fashion. Duffy has the potential to be a good fighter — maybe even a champion — in the UFC, but let’s pump the brakes a little. He ain’t there yet.



Alan Jouban has been the measuring stick for the welterweight division since debuting in 2014. He is up against Belal Muhammad, another up-and-coming welterweight, on Thursday night. Can Jouban keep his place as the gatekeeper for the top half of the division, or will Muhammad build on his impressive Titan FC title win with a victory in his UFC debut?

Huntemann: Is it really fair to call Jouban a gatekeeper? In my view, a gatekeeper is a fighter who either experienced glory once upon a time, but is now on the downswing of his/her career, or a fighter who seems to hit a ceiling that he/she can’t quite break through. I’m not sure either of those descriptions fits Jouban.

“Brahma” has a solid 4-2 record in the UFC and is coming off a first-round knockout victory in just over two minutes in March. He is a fighter on the rise. His two losses came to the always dangerous Albert Tumenov and solid prospect Warlley Alves. However, Jouban will face a stiff test in Muhammad.

Muhammad’s TKO victory over savvy veteran Steve Carl in Titan FC opened a lot of eyes. Muhammad is definitely a rising prospect and will be a steep challenge for Jouban. I don’t expect either guy to give an inch. This fight is a definite sleeper.

Jouban toughs it out and emerges the victor and as someone to reckon with in the welterweight division.


Aittama: Yes, Jouban is a fighter still on the rise, in the sense that he has more strong performances in his future. However, he is a gatekeeper in the sense that he has defeated the fighters he was supposed to beat and lost to the top up-and-coming prospects in the welterweight division. It’s not a bad place to be for a skilled fighter. Yet, as a 34-year-old, he might be stuck here for awhile.

Jouban has put together an impressive record with four wins in the UFC. He isn’t done performing at a high level, but he is pretty close to being a finished product. Fighters can and have continued to add technical ability as they age, but many fighters with an athletic style tend to hit their peak and lose steam pretty quickly once their athletic gifts begin to subside.

I don’t believe that’s the case for Jouban yet, but Muhammad is going to test that theory on Thursday night. Muhammad impressed in 19 minutes of work against Bellator and World Series of Fighting veteran Carl to win the Titan FC welterweight title. His most recent performance wasn’t the only solid performance in his undefeated career. Muhammad’s diverse offensive attack and well-rounded game led him to victories over Bellator veterans A.J. Matthews, Garrett Gross and Quinton McCottrell.

My colleague and many others believe Jouban will leave the Octagon victorious on Thursday night. I don’t. Muhammad will bring the fight to Jouban quickly, and will certainly do everything in his power to put Jouban away in under three rounds. This fight should be one of the best of the night.




Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Aittama: The clear-cut sleeper fight is the bantamweight showdown between Anthony Birchak and Dileno Lopes. There are other solid fights on the undercard, including a match-up of bantamweights Russell Doane and Pedro Munhoz that should be particularly exciting. The best fight far and away, though, is the potential scrap between Birchak and Lopes, a man who throws heavy leather.

Birchak is a skilled offensive fighter with a knack for the MMA game on the feet and the ground. The same can be said for Lopes, who has a relentless pace to his game. Lopes lost in The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 4 finale to Reginaldo Vieira, but the judges could have mixed up the names when reading the scorecards. The only other defeat for Lopes in 21 fights was at the hands of former ONE Championship flyweight champion Adriano Moraes due to a nasty body kick after an absolute war.

This fight will be brutal, back-and-forth and everything we expect to see when top-level fighters meet in the center of the cage. Birchak will be hungry to put Lopes away with strikes after contending and failing against the ferocious Thomas Almeida. Between these two fighters, they have only gone the distance four times in a combined 32 wins. The numbers don’t lie. Expect a wild fight when these men collide in Las Vegas on Thursday night.


Huntemann: The fight between Jouban and Muhammad could steal the show. This is one you don’t want to miss.

Don’t let Jouban’s extremely pretty face fool you. The dude hits and hits hard. He has nine knockout wins in his career and is always looking to put opponents’ lights out.

Muhammad is undefeated, coming off a finish of a longtime MMA veteran. He grinds down his opponents.

Something has to give in this fight, and the results could be spectacular.



Pair this card with…

Huntemann: A notebook. Because, while there are plenty of familiar faces on this card (dos Anjos, Alvarez, Nelson, Lewis, Duffy, etc.), there are also plenty of fighters on the rise who are eager to make a name for themselves. You may want to keep a notebook handy to jot down the names of some of these fighters, so you can remember them for later. Who knows? You could even tell your grandchildren where you were the day you saw Łukasz Sajewski for the first time.

Aittama: UFC Fight Pass. If you don’t already have the UFC’s digital streaming service, you have already missed exciting cards from Singapore to Krakow, and much, much more. The service and it’s head, Eric Winter, are bringing even more stars and even more fights as the UFC ramps up for the summer. The $9.99 a month is a small price to pay for what should be an essential medium for fight fans around the world. If you haven’t signed up to watch the first male title fight on the streaming service this Thursday night, you will be sadly missing out.




Aittama’s Picks

dos Anjos
Lewis
Duffy
Muhammad
Makdessi
Birchak
Pyle
Luque
Burns
Vieira
Munhoz
Arantes



Huntemann’s Picks

dos Anjos
Lewis
Duffy
Jouban
Baghdad
Birchak
Pyle
Luque
Burns
Beltran
Doane
Sanders

 

[NewYorkKnight]

 

[NewYorkKnight]

MMA Junkie Staff Picks



Ben Fowlkes - 2016: 61-30 (67%)

Dos Anjos
Nelson
Jouban
Duffy


Steven Marrocco - 2016: 60-31 (66%)

Dos Anjos
Nelson
Jouban
Duffy


Brent Brookhouse - 2016: 59-32 (65%)

Alvarez
Lewis
Muhammad
Duffy


Dann Stupp - 2016: 58-33 (64%) - 2015 Champion

Dos Anjos
Lewis
Jouban
Duffy


John Morgan - 2016: 57-34 (63%)

Dos Anjos
Lewis
Jouban
Duffy


Matt Erickson - 2016: 57-34 (63%)

Alvarez
Lewis
Jouban
Duffy


Brian Garcia - 2016: 56-35 (62%)

Alvarez
Nelson
Jouban
Duffy


Mike Bohn - 2016: 55-36 (60%) - 2014 Champion

Alvarez
Nelson
Jouban
Duffy


George Garcia - 2016: 48-43 (53%)

Dos Anjos
Nelson
Jouban
Duffy


Fernanda Prates - 2016: 12-13 (48%)

Dos Anjos
Lewis
Jouban
Duffy


MMAjunkie readers’ consensus picks - 2016: 61-30 (67%)

Dos Anjos
Nelson
Jouban
Duffy

 

[NewYorkKnight]

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