UFC 92 - All fights handicapped with reasoning

[JakeT.]

Dan Evensen/Pat Barry

Who will win and how:

Pat Barry by knockout. He lacks size but Evensen has shown some issues with his chin and hasn't faired well against above average kickboxers. Barry is a former K-1 guy and although I don't think he'll be able to do a ton to awesome grapplers with good takedowns, Evensen hasn't shown the ability to use any sort of ground game or wrestling. Evensen is a kickboxer but not in the mold of Barry who will get the quick knockout and earn some bonus money for KO of the night.

How to bet this fight:

I'm going to lay off. -265 is too high of a price to pay on a guy making his UFC debut with a 3-0 MMA record. Evensen does have size and reach and although Barry should eventually get inside and get his KO, it's too much to lay.

 

[JakeT.]

Brad Blackburn/Ryo Chonan

Who will win and how:

This one is hard to pick but I like Chonan with a submission or a decision. Blackburn is a very nice striker but Chonan has shown a nice chin and some good gameplans. Chonan seems to be good at staying out of trouble for the most part and his ground game should be much better than Blackburn's.

How to bet this fight:

This one is right on the border of a play with Chonan at -160. Gonna lay off and if Chonan had a tick better submission game I would be all over it but I'm just not sold. -160 seems a little short but not enough to put money on.

 

[DennizdaMenace]

I am gonna fade ya ta fortune..you couldnt pick a winner if only one team played:lol:

 

[JakeT.]

Matt Hamill/Reese Andy

Who will win and how:

Both of these guys are wrestlers with good takedowns and it's hard to figure out who has the advantage with the wrestling. Hamill has a nice edge with boxing but Andy has shown a decent enough chin and good ground control when fighting guys who can strike. Ultimately, I think Hamill will win this fight with a TKO after he rocks Andy who will have a disadvantage in reach and height.

How to bet this fight:

I really want to bet Andy +330 but it's so tough since he's not a finisher. If he wins, it will be on the cards and I'm just not sure he is at a level of wrestling to take down a bigger dude and hold him there given Hamill's wrestling background. That is the only real way I see Andy taking this fight and it's possible but I'm going to once again lay off.

 

[JakeT.]

I am gonna fade ya ta fortune..you couldnt pick a winner if only one team played:lol:

Only if we are talking about NFL. MMA is how I win back all the money I lose at that damn sport. Best of luck to ya.

:toast:

 

[JakeT.]

Antoni Hardonk/Mike Wessel

Who will win and how:

Hardonk should be able to get a knockout here but also might win on the cards. Wessel is more powerful but Hardonk has a reach and better kickboxing and should be able to pick Wessel apart. Wessel will try and wrestle for the win but Hardonk is tough and his submission game is improving. Wessel is taking a big step up and Hardonk is just too much for him.

How to bet this fight:

Antoni Hardonk -365

I just can't see Wessel doing much here. Although there's a chance he lays and prays for 3 rounds, he's going to have trouble getting inside and Hardonk should be able to pick him apart in the standup game. I think this line is 50-100 cents off and like Hardonk here.

 

[JakeT.]

Dean Lister/Yushin Okami

Who will win and how:

Okami should be able to control this fight for 3 rounds and get the decision if he doesn't get sloppy. Lister doesn't have the standup to give Okami any problems and Lister's takedown defense hasn't impressed me all that much. Okami is a very cautious fighter who has excelled at avoiding submission attempts and although Lister has a chance to get a submission from the bottom with his world class jiu jitsu, I just don't see it happening against Okami. Okami is a VERY similar fighter to Ricardo Arona who won a unanimous decision over Lister.

How to bet this fight:

Okami at -420 is enticing but I really hate betting on favorites this high, especially when Lister has that submission game that could catch anyone. I'm gonna lay off but will likely use Okami in some parlays since he seems like a fairly safe choice.

 

[JakeT.]

Mike Massenzio/CB Dollaway

Who will win and how:

This fight is pretty hard to pick with both guys having wrestling backgrounds. Dollaway actually beat Massenzio in college but this is not wrestling and it's really hard to say who is more well-rounded at the MMA game. Dollaway has a small edge in wrestling and I'd give him a small edge in the standup as well with Massenzio having a small submission edge but it's hard to tell if he can do anything from his back. I'll say Dollaway by decision.

How to bet this fight:

Get the hell away from it. Dollaway has a small edge and is a -162 favorite currently which seems a tiny bit infalted but not off enough to bet.

 

[JakeT.]

Gonna have to do the rest in the morning. I am gonna get to a party. My ADHD won't allow me to just sit around and handicap right now.

 

[DennizdaMenace]

Only if we are talking about NFL. MMA is how I win back all the money I lose at that damn sport. Best of luck to ya.

:toast:

You know I`m just bustin chops homie..Actually some very nice "looking" write ups..Keep this up and in 2-3 years you may parellel the boxing write ups of the legendary Green Doberman..I really hope you cash them all except the Dollaway fight..Looking forward to the big three matches..Between this..3 nice college football bowls..NBA..NHL..Soccer and college hoops..Should be a fun day:aktion033

 

[DennizdaMenace]

Mike Massenzio..is my pick

 

[jonnyg4508]

For the main 3 fights I like.

Forrest
Nog
Silva

I think Nog is a sure thing. Whatever the line is I will bet it. Nog 3 round UD.

Forrest should win. The Rashad KO of Liddell is still in the back of my head, so I will stay away from this one. Forrest 5 round UD.

Silva. It is hard to beat a guy 3 times, but I think Silva will. He will be in nothing less than perfect shape. Hopfully his ager towards Jackson doesn't make him sloppy. Silva 2nd round KO.

 

[jonnyg4508]

And I don't know why the Okami fight isn't on the main card. Just dumb.

 

[TheBrainiac]

^^ cuz it will be boring as hell and even worse than CB vs Massenzio maybe ...
Lister gonna gas after like 2 minutes and Okami doesn't take risks , not what people ordering this PPV want to see for sure .

 

[jonnyg4508]

^^ cuz it will be boring as hell and even worse than CB vs Massenzio maybe ...
Lister gonna gas after like 2 minutes and Okami doesn't take risks , not what people ordering this PPV want to see for sure .

Maybe. But people ordering this PPV want to see the 3 main fights. If the 1st fight of the night is boring to them, they won't really care.

For real fans of MMA they want to see this Okami fight. Okami is a top 5 MW in the world.