i don't have a problem risking this kind of juice here because betting MMA as in any other sport is about betting where you see value in a line. I bet Kendall Grove +160 because i saw value. I pounded BJ Penn vs Sherk and Faber vs Pulver cause imo i saw value.
Yes Griffin could win this fight but does he win this fight more than 10 to 20% of the time? I would argue no way in hell. The line is set to where rampage is given roughly a 65% chance to win this fight. I would say that is way to low and thats why I am hammering this line. You cannot tell me that Diego Sanchez should have been -500 over Fiorvanti and Rampage should only be -255 over Forest. The reason this line isn't -350 or -400 where it should be is because Forest is extremely popular and public perception of him is putting this line here.
Yes Griffin could win this fight but does he win this fight more than 10 to 20% of the time? I would argue no way in hell. The line is set to where rampage is given roughly a 65% chance to win this fight. I would say that is way to low and thats why I am hammering this line. You cannot tell me that Diego Sanchez should have been -500 over Fiorvanti and Rampage should only be -255 over Forest. The reason this line isn't -350 or -400 where it should be is because Forest is extremely popular and public perception of him is putting this line here.
the main thing i was waiting for before i pounded this was whether rampage was going to be in shape and taking forest seriously. i have extensively read about both fighters training camp, watched interviews and listened to interviews and by all accounts Rampage is in amazing shape. I see a Rampage knockout probably in the second round but i could see this going to decision if forest tries to run away from rampage the whole fight which he did say was going to be his strategy on a preview i saw. he said he was going to "hit and run."
Damn bro.
I'm backing Page here too but only got a small position.
It takes Chute Boxe type violence to TKO Rampage, something Forrest doesn't have. Page is strong but Griffin is a huge LW. His best chance is to wear Page down with his size and take over in later rounds. Considering Rampage showed a lot of grit and determination in his fight against Hendo and went the distance, I think he's proven he can handle this too.
Forrest likes to stand and trade. This was fine when his opponent Stephan Bonnar but not so much when it was Jardine. Rampage should be able to catch Griffin eventually in these situations.
Good luck Pike.
I'm backing Page here too but only got a small position.
It takes Chute Boxe type violence to TKO Rampage, something Forrest doesn't have. Page is strong but Griffin is a huge LW. His best chance is to wear Page down with his size and take over in later rounds. Considering Rampage showed a lot of grit and determination in his fight against Hendo and went the distance, I think he's proven he can handle this too.
Forrest likes to stand and trade. This was fine when his opponent Stephan Bonnar but not so much when it was Jardine. Rampage should be able to catch Griffin eventually in these situations.
Good luck Pike.
