UFC 207 Betting Info / Predictions / Breakdowns (Friday Night Event)

[NewYorkKnight]

Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada
Friday December 30th

Main Card (PPV)

Amanda Nunes (c) vs. Ronda Rousey
Dominick Cruz (c) vs. Cody Garbrandt
T.J. Dillashaw vs. John Lineker
Louis Smolka vs. Ray Borg


Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Johny Hendricks vs. Neil Magny
Dong Hyun Kim vs. Tarec Saffiedine
Mike Pyle vs. Alex Garcia
Antônio Carlos Júnior vs. Marvin Vettori


Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Tim Means vs. Alex Oliveira
Brandon Thatch vs. Niko Price

 

[NewYorkKnight]

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Come fight night, you may only see one or two fighters more than 2-to-1 favorites

 

[NewYorkKnight]

 

[NewYorkKnight]

 

[NewYorkKnight]

 

[NewYorkKnight]

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 207 Predictions
from Justin Hartling - Odds Shark




Amanda Nunes vs Ronda Rousey

Nunes is one of the best finishers in MMA today, as 12 of her 13 victories have come via stoppage. Throughout the early part of her career, she got by on her physical gifts but has been gaining the technical skills to go along with it. The biggest leaps and bounds have come in the standup game, as she is learning how to harness her length and power thanks to her work at American Top Team.

Nunes’ wrestling skills are not exactly stellar offensively, but she is great at keeping the fight standing so she can utilize her natural power. If she can get into the clinch, she is powerful and will routinely use this power as a faux wrestling game by knocking her opponent to the ground with her strikes.

Top control is vital to Nunes on the ground, as any extra stress on her cardio is damning for the champion. If she can attain top position, she has brutal ground and pound that capitalizes on her power and her long reach relative to the division. The Brazilian has a black belt in BJJ, but rarely uses it from the top unless she can get hold of her opponent’s back.

There have been two big knocks on Nunes throughout her career: one is cardio and the other is fight IQ. To be quite frank, her cardio is bad. She gasses early and she has never been able to put forth much of an effort past the second round. Nunes has made some questionable decisions in the Octagon, but training at ATT and simply having more experience in the cage have helped to taper this issue.

MMA is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately sport. Rousey was its biggest star until her mystique-shattering loss to Holly Holm. Ever since, people have been quick to talk down Rousey. However, sometimes a loss is exactly what a fighter needs to get back on track (*cough* Conor McGregor *cough*).

Rousey is not a great technical marvel on her feet but her aggression and power have gotten her this far. This aggression is a double-edged sword, as she can charge in headlong without much regard for her own safety. She has gotten better working on the outside but we saw that she struggles if her opponent can keep her from getting in tight like Holm did.

Rousey’s striking game is all about getting in close to her opponent so she can work in the clinch and utilize her unmatched judo skills. Ronda’s takedown attempts and accuracy rank her near the top in the history of the women's bantamweight division. The variety of skills in the clinch to take a fight to the mat is impressive and she will not stop working until she takes her opponent down.

Rousey’s most famous technique is her armbar, which she has won nine of her 13 professional fights with. This is not by accident, as her jiu-jitsu coaches have built her ground game around her judo skills, which often sees her isolate an opponent’s arm due to her takedown techniques.

There is no doubt that Nunes is going to come out with fire, as her questionable cardio makes it important to end fights early. Rousey knows this and has publicly said she will need to outlast Nunes. Rousey has capitalized on this before, but I believe that Nunes is a more technical, more well-rounded opponent than Rousey has ever fought.

Prediction: Amanda Nunes (EVEN)



Dominick Cruz vs Cody Garbrandt

There is a legitimate argument to be made that Cruz is the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. No fighter in MMA today reaches his level of footwork and his ability to avoid getting hit. Since returning from a two-year injury layoff, Cruz has a striking defense of 75 percent, which means opponents only hit one of every four strikes they throw. His interesting movement in the standup game does generally revolve around controlling the center of the Octagon so he can freely move laterally and retreat after landing strikes. Though he has some pop in his hands, Cruz is more about volume than power punching.

With such a unique striking style, people often overlook that Cruz is one of the best wrestlers in the division as well. Generally speaking, he will use his wrestling offensively simply to add a dimension against his opponents to cause hesitation. More often, he uses his wrestling defensively so he can keep the fight standing.

There isn’t much to say against his skills, to be honest. The champion outworks almost every opponent he enters the Octagon with and seemingly little can be done to stop him from doing so.

Garbrandt is young but has experience well beyond his years. Aside from his perfect 10-0 pro-MMA record, ‘No Love’ was an all-state wrestling champion in high school and was 32-1 during an amateur boxing career. You can see the boxing influences in his striking game, as he is a headhunter with nearly every punch going toward his opponent’s face. Unlike most members of Team Alpha Male, he is a patient counterpuncher who uses his technical prowess and natural speed to hit opponents. The most important note about his striking is his power. He has the ability to knock out any opponent with either hand and may be the most powerful puncher at 135.

As mentioned above, Garbrandt is a skilled wrestler as well. The Ohio native defines himself as a “sprawl-and-brawler,” as he uses his wrestling skills defensively so he can stand and bang with opponents. In his five UFC bouts, not one opponent has been able to take Garbrandt to the mat.

Garbrandt has all the makings of a champion, but you do need to wonder how a 25-year-old with 10 pro fights will fare against one of the best P4P fighters on the planet. I’m sure Garbrandt had plenty of reps against a similar fighter in T.J. Dillashaw at TAM before Dillashaw left, but Cruz is another animal. I think Garbrandt likely tags Cruz a few times, which could be enough, but I think Cruz wears down his opponent like so many others.

Prediction: Dominick Cruz (-225)



T.J. Dillashaw vs John Lineker

Dillashaw is one of the best lighter-weight fighters on the planet. He has become one of the best strikers in the division since joining up with Duane Ludwig. Ludwig has combined Dillashaw’s aggression and volume with great footwork to create a striker whom very few can keep up with. Dillashaw has thrown more than 100 significant strikes in five of his past six fights with only Dominick Cruz outstriking him.

T.J. is also a great grappler, as he competed in wrestling at both a high school and university level. He has the ability to land takedowns if he needs to, but more often uses it defensively in order to properly utilize his striking skills

Lineker is a fist-throwing ball of energy inside the Octagon. There is some technical boxing in his game, but Lineker will generally want to brawl. ‘Hands of Stone’ looks to trap his opponent against the cage and just start tossing haymakers, which would be disastrous if his chin wasn’t made of iron. Lineker lands 5.3 significant strikes per minute but only lands at 38 percent, which means he is throwing almost 15 significant strikes per minute.

Though you would traditionally expect a brawler to be out of his element on the ground, Lineker has a purple belt in BJJ. Again, it’s not likely to look technically perfect, but Lineker has the skills to grab an opportunistic sub. He’s a solid wrestler but can get taken down by the better wrestlers at the weight.

Dillashaw has dominated all of his opponents not named “Dominick Cruz.” Lineker is far from on the same level as Cruz. Lineker can win this if he makes it dirty early, but the fight favors Dillashaw with every passing minute. Lineker is just unable to match the multiple techniques and strikes Dillashaw presents.

Prediction: T.J. Dillashaw (-260)



Louis Smolka vs Ray Borg

Smolka is a tall, lanky fighter who uses his size well for the flyweight division. ‘Da Last Samurai’ is an aggressive high-volume striker who lands more strikes per minute than any other 125’er. Smolka began training in karate at a young age and you can still see shades of that in his stance and kicks in the Octagon.

Wrestling isn’t exactly Smolka’s strong suit, but he is competent both offensively and defensively. His style on the mat is just as aggressive as on the feet, as perfectly encapsulated by his seven submission attempts against Ben Nguyen. If there is one thing that concerns me about Smolka, it’s his inconsistency. Occasionally, he will show up and try to get by on athleticism alone.

Borg is primarily a grappler who has a knack for getting his opponent’s back, with six of his nine career wins coming via submission. There’s no hiding it: Borg wants the fight to go to the mat so he can work his submission game.

In the standup, Borg is basically the definition of “meh.” He has little power and can sometimes try too hard to wind up on his strikes, especially leg kicks. He’s still young, but he hasn’t really adapted a striking style that sets up his grappling game. Instead, he will push forward and toss one harmless punch while shooting for a takedown.

Borg isn’t very active in the striking game and is only really in a good spot if he gets top control. Smolka dropped an upset loss via submission in his last fight, which means he likely spent some time trying to refine that aspect. Both fighters are young and still developing, but Smolka is just much further along.

Prediction: Louis Smolka (-115)

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 207 Predictions
from Steven Rondina - Bleacher Report




Dong Hyun Kim (21-3-1), Tarec Saffiedine (16-5)

Despite being largely forgotten about, Dong Hyun Kim and Tarec Saffiedine are two of the best fighters at 170 pounds.

Kim has been a fringe top-10 name for years now thanks to the successful conversion of his judo skills into a potent grinding game that has made victims of a number of formidable competitors, including Nate Diaz. Saffiedine, meanwhile, won Strikeforce’s welterweight title in the organization’s final bout with a brilliant display of technical striking and, even in a deep division, remains a unique commodity.

Unfortunately, while both men are excellent fighters, their careers have gone sideways through poorly timed losses and long injury layoffs. That makes this an important matchup for both fighter as they face off with a Top 10 spot on the line...but it's still a matchup with an all but certain outcome.

While Saffiedine is a formidable fighter in his own right, he has a well-established weakness to highly skilled grapplers, and that describes Kim to a T. Kim will keep the action along the cage, score takedowns and either use that to secure an easy decision or possibly do enough damage to earn the stoppage.

Prediction: Dong Hyun Kim defeats Tarec Saffiedine by unanimous decision.



TJ Dillashaw (13-3), John Lineker (29-7)

John Lineker’s UFC career has been a strange one. He had long been regarded as an upper-tier flyweight, but his consistent inability to make weight dashed his title hopes. In 2015, though, he left that brutal weight cut behind to join the bantamweight division. While he is undersized at 135 pounds, his diverse arsenal of punches and pure power have seen him break off four straight wins and establish himself as a Top 10 fighter as a result.

At UFC 207, he looks to crack into the title picture for the first time in his UFC career at the expense of former bantamweight champ TJ Dillashaw. That’s a tall order, though.

A former champion, Dillashaw took the bantamweight crown with one of the bloodiest coups in UFC history, beating Renan Barao in lopsided fashion at UFC 173. He would defend his throne twice before dropping a narrow split decision to Dominick Cruz, but despite that he is still regarded by many as the best fighter in the division due to his cardio, knockout power and nigh-bulletproof takedown defense.

The odds are stacked against Lineker here, but he does have a window to victory. Dillashaw has, in recent years, been something of a slow starter. In a three-round fight, that could open the door for Lineker to score a decision victory. That isn’t an especially probable outcome, though.

Prediction: TJ Dillashaw defeats John Lineker by unanimous decision.



Dominick Cruz (22-1), Cody Garbrandt (10-0)

Dominick Cruz vs. Cody Garbrandt is the ultimate showdown of polar opposites.

Cruz is a cerebral assassin in and out of the cage. His pre-fight banter is downright savage; he openly tells opponents their every weakness, brags about how he will exploit their deficiencies and laughs as they try in vain to return fire on the mic. Then, more importantly, he backs it up with his elusive style that flusters foes as they catch air on every swing.

Garbrandt is more, let’s say, meat and potatoes. He’ll call opponents names and jaw when they get face-to-face but offers nothing beyond the usual “MMA tough guy” shtick. In the cage, though, he has true one-hit-knockout power, which is complemented by his well-polished defensive wrestling.

The contrast of styles, alongside the contrast of personalities, makes this a tantalizing matchup, and the fact that both men remain somewhat unknown commodities only adds to that.

How far Garbrandt has advanced as a fighter is still unclear at this point, given that he has just 10 professional fights and few of them have lasted long. How Cruz feels physically is, unfortunately, a question that will haunt him for a long time after several long layoffs due to injury.

Cruz is the more established fighter and, as such, is the safer bet to win. Don’t be surprised if one of Garbrandt’s heavy punches slips through Cruz’s guard and turns the fight upside down, though.

Prediction: Dominick Cruz defeats Cody Garbrandt by unanimous decision.



Amanda Nunes (13-4), Ronda Rousey (12-1)

The UFC women’s bantamweight division has been defined by its parity. An endless stream of seemingly legitimate contenders have been upended by hot young upstarts time and again. Cat Zingano, Miesha Tate, Holly Holm and even the reigning champion Amanda Nunes have, at one time or another, shown glaring holes in their game and been soundly defeated.

The only fighter in the division to have a prolonged stretch of dominance is former champ Ronda Rousey.

Starting with her first victory over Tate, who was then the champion of Strikeforce, Rousey quickly established herself as the best woman in MMA alongside Cris “Cyborg” Justino. Her intense aura, camera-friendly appearance and utter savagery in the cage made her into MMA’s first bona fide A-list celebrity and turned her into something of a cult of personality among the mainstream populace.

That made her UFC 193 loss to Holly Holm a genuine shock. Even more shocking was her retreat from the public eye afterward. In less than 10 minutes, Rousey went from being a force of nature to being tragically human, and that makes her fight with Nunes a complete mystery.

Nunes, at her best, is a lightning bolt. She is powerful and destructive and disappears in an instant. While she has improved technically over the years, she doesn’t last long in fights, with her grappling skills often being the first thing to fade.

That would be a tailor-made matchup for the Rousey who defeated Alexis Davis, Cat Zingano and Bethe Correia in about one minute combined...but does that Rousey still exist? Or has she been replaced by the checked-out, emotionally uninvested Rousey who flailed her way to one of the most stunning losses in UFC history? It's tough to guess, but that’s what will decide this fight.

If Rousey, as the UFC is implying, returns angrier and hungrier than ever, it will likely lead to a fairly dominant win for her. If she doesn’t? Nunes could truck right through Rousey inside a round.

Despite her less-than-graceful response to the loss to Holm, Rousey has historically bounced back from adversity well. Her judo career, after all, culminated with her dusting herself off after a loss and claiming a bronze medal.

Because of that, the prediction here is...

Prediction: Ronda Rousey defeats Amanda Nunes by submission in Round 2.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 207 Predictions
from Mike Schultz - Sports Interaction




Amanda Nunes vs. Ronda Rousey

Records: Nunes 13-4-0 Rousey 12-1-0
Division: Bantamweight
UFC Odds: Nunes +105 Rousey -135

Prediction: Rousey by submission

Some say that getting knocked out by a powerful kick to the head was the end of Rousey’s career, as she slipped out of the spotlight afterwards for over a year. But Rousey has returned, looking to be in the best shape of her life, to try and retake the title. The reigning women’s bantamweight champion, Amanda Nunes has been looking forward to fighting Rousey for her entire career, and this will be her first title defense since she defeated Miesha Tate in July. Nunes is ranked No. 1 in the MMA women’s bantamweight rankings, and Rousey is ranked 2nd.

If the Ronda Rousey who beat Alexis Davis, Cat Zingano and Bethe Correia all in under a minute is still in there somewhere, she should be able to win this fight against Nunes, who is known to tire early.



Cody Garbrandt v Dominick Cruz

Records: Cruz 22-1-0 Garbrandt 10-0-0
Division: Bantamweight
UFC Odds: Garbrandt +175 Cruz -235

Prediction: Cruz by Decision

This will be a title fight and is the event’s co-headline. Bantamweight champ and No. 1-ranked Dominick Cruz will be here for his second straight title defense when he faces 7th ranked Cody Garbrandt in the Octagon. Cruz is an agile fighter with a powerful strike, and has already won two fights this year. Cruz may also have the stamina advantage here, and can win if the fight goes to the mat. Garbrandt can win if he does it quickly with his significant boxing and speed skill.



T.J. Dillashaw vs. John Lineker

Records: Dillashaw 14-3-0 Lineker 29-7-0
Division: Bantamweight
UFC Odds: Lineker +205 Dillashaw -280

Prediction: Dillashaw by Decision

Lineker is a great brawler with decent boxing skills but the odds are against him here because he’s outmatched by Dillashaw in almost every other way. His chance to win comes only if he does it fast and dirty, since T.J. has been known to be slower at the start of fights. That said, Dillashaw is considered one of the best fighters in his class in the world, and Lineker likely won’t be able to match him strike for strike.



Ray Borg v Louis Smolka

Records: Smolka 11-2-0 Borg 9-2-0
Division: Flyweight
UFC Odds: Borg -120 Smolka -110

Prediction: Smolka by decision

This fight was promoted to the main card after Jessica Andrade was not able to find a replacement fight. Andrade was supposed to fight Maryna Moroz but an inury forced Moroz out. Borg is the slight favorite here and can win if he can get the fight down to the mat for a submission. He’s not as talented a striker as Smilka however, and Borg has had problems with consistency.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 207 Picks and Predictions
from Kody Miller



Brandon Thatch -230 vs. Niko Price +180

Thatch (11-3-0) will come into this one as the heavy favorite over undefeated Niko Price (8-0-0). “Rukus” was initially scheduled to take on Sabah Homasi here, but Homasi was forced to withdraw due to undisclosed reasons.

This is a huge bout for Thatch’s future considering he has been beaten in each of his last three outings via submission against Gunnar Nelson, Benson Henderson and Siyar Bahadurazada.

Price is a relative unknown out of the Florida area, though, and this will be his first taste of the big stage. Considering Thatch’s UFC future may depend on this result, it’s safe to say he’ll come out guns blazing in this one.

Price is an interesting name to keep an eye on in the future, but the more experienced Thatch will do away with him here.

Pick: Thatch via TKO



Tim Means -115 vs. Alex Oliveira -115

Means (26-7-1) has won each of his last two fights over John Howard last December and Sabah Homasi back in August. He knocked out Howard and picked up a TKO against Homasi, who was forced to fill-in at the last minute.

Oliveira (16-3-1) will come into this bout in strong form, as he, too, has won two consecutive fights. “Cowboy” was beaten by Donald Cerrone in February, but picked up consecutive wins over James Moontasri and Will Brooks.

The two fighters come into this one incredibly evenly-matched, and it is essentially a pick’em. Oliveira was the subject of controversy after failing to make weight prior to his defeat of Brooks, which led to Means taunting him via Twitter.

Oliveira will have something to prove in this one, and I think he’ll shut Means up here.

Pick: Oliveira via submission



Alex Garcia -165 vs. Mike Pyle +135

Garcia (13-3-0) will be looking to rebound after suffering a TKO at the hands of Sean Strickland in his last fight.

Pyle (27-12-1), the 41 year old elder statesman of the circuit, has also had his fair share of trouble of late. Pyle is only 2-4 over the course of his last six fights in a stretch that includes a trio of knockouts. The most recent came against Alberto Mina back in July.

Pyle is a heavy underdog in this one, and with good reason. He certainly has the edge as far as experience goes, but his recent form does little to inspire much confidence in this spot.

I’m afraid Pyle may have to strongly consider his fighting future after another knockout here.

Pick: Garcia via knockout



Antonio Carlos Junior -140 vs. Marvin Vettori +110

This middleweight bout will pit Brazilian Antonio Carlos Junior (5-1-0) against Italian Marvin Vettori (11-2-0).

Carlos Junior has been rather inconsistent during his UFC tenure. Two of his recent defeats came via decision against Patrick Cummins in his light heavyweight debut fight and via TKO against Dan Kelly back in March. Back in 2014 he was named champion of “Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” season three after taking down Vitor Miranda in the title bout.

Vettori is a relative newcomer to the UFC circuit. He inked a deal to join UFC earlier this year after a successful run in the Italian Venator circuit previously. He debuted at UFC 202 in August and beat Alberto Uda with a guillotine choke in the first round of their fight.

Vettori is listed as an underdog, but that can likely be chalked up to his status as a relative unknown here in the States. His track record is impressive, though, and he should be able to handle the inconsistent Carlos Junior.

Pick: Vettori via submission



Dong Hyun Kim -135 vs. Tarec Saffiedine +105

Dong Hyun Kim is on this card as the replacement for Matt Brown, who was rescheduled in order to fight Donald Cerrone in UFC 206 in Toronto instead.

Kim (21-3-1) boasts an impressive overall record and comes into this fight having claimed victory in six of his last seven events overall. Currently ranked No. 10 in the division, Kim has yet to fight in 2016 with his last win coming via TKO over Dominic Waters last November.

Saffiedine (16-4-0) is the 13th-ranked fighter in the welterweight division and is only 2-2 since returning to the circuit back in ‘14. He last entered the octagon at UFC Fight Night 88 and lost a unanimous decision to Rick Story.

Kim figures to come into this one fresh, and I think Saffiedine will give him very little trouble here. It could be over early.

Pick: Kim via submission



Johny Hendricks -105 vs. Neil Magny -125

Here we have another fight that could go either way.

Hendricks (17-5-0) is in need of a resurgence after a recent string of subpar performances. He has dropped three of his four fights since beating Robbie Lawler to claim the welterweight belt in UFC 171. Lawler got his revenge on Hendricks at UFC 181, and Johny has lost his last two fights via TKO against Stephen Thompson and with a unanimous decision vs. Kelvin Gastelum.

He has endured some health concerns recently, as well, and had to have a fight at UFC 192 scrapped due to kidney stones and intestinal blockage.

Magny (18-5-0) was enjoying a hot streak before that came crashing to an end his last time out. Magny was easily beaten in a first round TKO against Lorenz Larkin at UFC 202, but had prevailed in 10 of his last 11 bouts before that defeat.

Both will be looking to get back on the winning side, but Hendricks figures to be the more desperate of the two to prove he isn’t washed up quite yet. Magny may be the more popular pick, but a gut feeling tells me this fight will go Johny’s way.

Pick: Hendricks via decision



Ray Borg -115 vs. Louis Smolka -115

The opener on the main card was supposed to feature Jessica Andrade, but the promotion was unable to find a replacement for Maryna Moroz, who was forced to withdraw due to injury.

Instead, we’ll get Ray Borg (9-2-0) taking on Louis Smolka (11-2-0), which had originally been scheduled on the undercard.

Borg, 23, has a good amount of UFC experience despite his young age. He has already been featured in five events, but had his three-match streak of victories come to an end in his most recent fight against Justin Scoggins at UFC Fight Night 82.

Borg had to pull out of consecutive events in July and September due to injury and illness, and this will be his first action since the aforementioned defeat in February.

Smolka also had a good run of form snapped recently when he was shockingly defeated via first round submission by Brandon Moreno at UFC Fight Night 96 in October. Sergio Pettis was originally scheduled to take on Smolka that night before being replaced by Moreno.

Smolka had built an impressive 11-1 record prior to that surprising loss, and this bout with Borg gives him a good chance to get back on the right path. Borg will make it tough, but Smolka is primed to remind us why he’s one of the most promising young athletes on the circuit.

Pick: Smolka via decision



TJ Dillashaw -260 vs. John Lineker +200

Dillashaw (13-3-0) had been hoping for a rematch with Dominick Cruz here, but he’ll have to settle for a fight with Lineker (29-7-0).

Cruz defeated Dillashaw for the bantamweight crown back in January. Dillashaw wasn’t down for long, though, as he bounced back with a unanimous decision victory over Raphael Assuncao back in July at UFC 200.

Dillashaw is best known for his shocking upset victory over Renan Barao at UFC 173 back in 2014. He won the fight via TKO in the fifth round in what has been described as one of the most unexpected and surprising results in the history of the sport.

He’ll come into this one as a heavy favorite over Lineker, who has racked up a 4-0 record in the bantamweight division of UFC. He has won six straight fights overall after a split decision vs. John Dodson in October.

Dillashaw is quite familiar with upsets, but you have to think he goes out there and gets the job done against Lineker in this spot.

Pick: Dillashaw via submission



Dominick Cruz -225 vs. Cody Garbrandt +175

There is plenty of history between these two. Cruz and Garbrandt have been going back-and-forth talking about each other relentlessly in the media leading up to this one. Cruz has been talking about Garbrandt’s concussion problems, but Garbrandt has responded by saying he thinks Cruz is just shy about his own insecurities.

Cruz (22-1-0) is certainly a veteran of the circuit and will come into this one riding a ridiculous 13-match winning streak. His last and only defeat came at the hands of Urijah Faber back at WEC 26 way back in 2007.

He most recently got his revenge for a second time with a unanimous decision victory over Faber at UFC 199 this past July.

Garbrandt, 25, has never faced a fighter of Cruz’s caliber at the UFC level but does come into this one undefeated at 10-0-0. He has picked up knockout wins in two of his three fights in 2016 and most recently earned a TKO win over Takeya Mizugaki at UFC 202.

Garbrandt will certainly come into this one motivated to show the world that he’s the real deal, but it’s hard to bet against the veteran Cruz on a stage like this. This will be a fascinating watch, but Cruz will run his win streak to 14.

Pick: Cruz via decision



Amanda Nunes +110 vs. Ronda Rousey -140

Finally, we’ve reached the main event. Ronda Rousey (12-1-0) makes her first appearance in the octagon since the aforementioned defeat to Holly Holm, and she’ll be eager to show that he’s still the best fighter on the planet.

In her way stands Nunes (13-4-0), who will defend the belt she won by beating Miesha Tate at UFC 207. She has also beaten big names like Sara McMann and Valentina Shevchenko in the past, so Rousey will have her work cut out for her if she has any hopes of reclaiming the crown.

It’s not fair to say that Rousey’s legacy hinges on this fight considering she has already earned her status as one of the most decorated fighters in the history of the sport.

A win here would cement her place at the top, though, and it’s hard to imagine her losing consecutive fights considering she has only lost once before at the UFC level.

Nunes won’t make things easy, but Rousey is the greatest ever for a reason.

Pick: Rousey via TKO

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 207 predictions: Fight Pass 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 1
from Patrick L. Stumberg - MMA Mania



170 lbs.: Alex Oliveira vs. Tim Means

Three consecutive victories paved the way for a tumultuous 2016 for Alex Oliveira (16-4-1), which kicked off with a loss to Donald Cerrone in the first-ever UFC main event for the Brazilian "Cowboy." He proceeded to dominate James Moontasri and upset Will Brooks, although he grievously missed weight in the latter.

He is three inches shorter than the 6’2" Tim Means (26-7).

Means has made the most of his second shot at UFC stardom, going 6-1 since a loss to Neil Magny in 2014. After missing out on a shot at Donald Cerrone because of United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA)-related issues, "Dirty Bird" returned in August to batter Sabah Homasi into submission at UFC 202.

Eighteen of his professional wins have come by knockout.

This is a phenomenal fight, one that should have the winner knocking on the door of the Top 15. While Means has the edge in the feet in terms of slickness, length and strike variety, I’m leaning toward Oliveira. The key here is the wrestling of "Cowboy" -- none of the six men Means smashed during his current run had any sort of takedown prowess. Oliveira is durable enough to survive on the feet and I’m not sure that Means -- who can slip into cruise control at times -- will throw enough volume to overcome the time he spends on his back.

Means is scary in the clinch and could certainly punish Oliveira if he gets too eager, but Oliveira’s brutal pace and ground control are just too much. He controls the fight on the mat to take the decision win.

Prediction: Oliveira via unanimous decision



170 lbs.: Brandon Thatch vs. Niko Price

Once touted as the future of the Welterweight division, three consecutive submission losses leave Brandon Thatch (11-4) fighting for his UFC life. His first main event turn saw him tap to Benson Henderson, after which "Rukus" was dropped and stopped by Gunnar Nelson and submitted by Siyar Bahadurzada (of all people).

All of his wins have come by first-round stoppage, eight of them knockouts.

Niko Price (8-0) opened his career with an armbar win, then proceeded to knockout his next six opponents. His last fight, in August, saw him go to the judges for the first time after six first-round finishes and one in the second. He steps in for Sabah Homasi in short notice.

Honestly, the Henderson and Nelson losses were understandable -- "Bendo" is a former champion and Nelson has really come into his own of late. Against Bahadurzada, though, Thatch just looked helpless. No part of his game worked. Indeed, his striking was powerless, his takedown defense woeful, and he did absolutely nothing to defend against the finishing arm-triangle.

This is a fight he both can and has to win. Though I’ve yet to find any recent footage of Price, he looks like the sort of slow, flat-footed bruiser who Thatch ought to beat to a pulp. Of course, the exact same could be said of Bahadurzada and Thatch still struggled.

I’m giving "Rukus" one more chance. If there’s anything left of the confident, aggressive bulldozer who once enthralled the fans, he smashes Price in one round.

Prediction: Thatch via first-round technical knockout

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 207
from Cage Rank



Rousey BY Submission ROUND 1

Cruz BY Decision

Dillashaw BY Decision

Hendricks BY Decision

Hyun Kim BY Decision

Pyle BY KO ROUND 2

Borg BY Submission ROUND 2

Means BY KO ROUND 2

Carlos Jr. BY Decision

Thatch BY KO ROUND 1

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 207
from Sean Sheehan - Severe MMA



Rousey by armbar

Cruz by decision

Lineker will be tough but TJ gets it done

Tarec via technique

Love this fight, 50-50, but Smolka

Magny
Garcia
ACJ
Thatch
Oliveira



BET OF THE WEEK

Rousey vs. Nunes to end via 1st round submission for either fighter at 21/10

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 207 Predictions
from Riley Kontek - Fansided



Amanda Nunes vs. Ronda Rousey

The main event sees the return of one of the biggest stars in MMA history, as former champion Ronda Rousey looks to return to her seat of glory when she takes on now-champion Amanda Nunes. There are a lot of questions about Rousey since her layoff following her knockout loss to Holly Holm. Is her head in the game or has she already checked out? Seeing how competitive she is, I think she will be ready. Don’t count out Nunes, though. She’s a good striker and can hang on the mat with any lady she takes to the cage with. I actually think this is a tough fight to call. If classic Ronda shows up, she should win a contentious bout. If she shows up with any doubt, Nunes will retain her title.

I will still go with Rousey here.



Dominick Cruz vs. Cody Garbrandt

The co-main event will see the bantamweight strap defended, as Dominick Cruz looks to continue his welcome-back tour in impressive fashion against hot top contender Cody Garbrandt. Garbrandt is a heavy-handed striker that has knocked out four of his five opponents in the UFC. His last two knockouts were his most impressive, as he blasted through Takeya Mizugaki and Thomas Almeida in devastating fashion. Cruz is easily the best bantamweight of our time who, without extended periods of injuries, may be the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. On the feet, if he can stick and move like he always does, he can stay out of the power range of Garbrandt. Garbrandt is a great bantamweight,

but nobody holds a candle to Cruz, who retains.



TJ Dillashaw vs. John Lineker

Bantamweight contenders will go it at in the next bout with a possible title shot on the line, as former champ TJ Dillashaw takes on the ultra-dangerous John Lineker. This is a matchup of speed vs. power. Dillashaw is the speed, as he has great footwork, movement and technique on the feet. He also has a big wrestling advantage. Lineker represents the power, as every strike he throws is with the intent of knocking his opponent unconscious. This fight reminds me of the fight between the Spanish Armada (Lineker) and the Royal British Navy (Dillashaw).

In that fight, the Brits were victorious, which signifies a win for Dillashaw in this bout.



Louis Smolka vs. Ray Borg

The flyweights will collide in the next bout, as Hawaiian Louis Smolka meets up with the underrated Ray Borg. Smolka is a striker who is coming off a major upset loss to Brandon Moreno. There, he was grounded and submitted, which gives the blueprint for Borg’s victory here. Borg is a great grappler and probably a better submission artist than Moreno, really giving us an insight into what will happen in this bout.

Borg grounds Smolka and eventually finishes him in an exciting affair.



Johny Hendricks vs. Neil Magny

Former welterweight champ Johny Hendricks is desperately trying to return to the top, but in his way at UFC 207 is Neil Magny, one of the most consistent performers in the division. Hendricks has not looked the same since losing his welterweight title, and I am not sure how many more fights he can cut down to 170 pounds. He has big power and good wrestling, something that should be a good combo against Magny — a technical striker with good quickness that could affect how Hendricks fights. After a very long winning streak, he just took a tough loss to Lorenz Larkin in his last fight. This is a tough one to call,

but I think Hendricks wins a close one and moves up to middleweight.



Dong Hyun Kim vs. Tarec Saffiedine

Top welterweights are set to go at it in the next fight, as South Korea’s Dong Hyun Kim looks to take out Belgian striker Tarec Saffiedine — a heavy striker, especially when it comes to his kicks. He likes to chop guys down from their legs up, affecting the movement of his opponents. That’s why Kim is going to have to close the distance quickly and make this fight ugly. If he can clinch and take Saffiedine down, he can easily take this fight.

That’s what happens, as Kim continues to march toward a potential title shot.



Mike Pyle vs. Alex Garcia

Welterweights will go at it next on the prelims, as powerhouse Alex Garcia looks to take out the scrappy, never-say-die veteran Mike Pyle. Garcia reminds me of a young Hector Lombard, though maybe not quite as polished. He has big time power and can knock anybody out, but has not found consistency in the UFC. Pyle is 41-years old, but is still a dangerous welterweight in the UFC. Though he has lost three of his last four, he consistently fights some of the best fighters in the UFC. He will want to avoid a striking affair with Garcia, as his chin has some mileage on it,

but if he can get Garcia down, he’s in good shape, especially if it wears on Garcia’s cardio.



Tim Means vs. Alex Oliveira

A welterweight slugfest is on deck in the next fight, as Tim Means and Alex Oliveira will look to duke things out on the feet. Both Means and Oliveira love to duke it out, as both are technical, powerful strikers. They are also very versed on the mat, which makes this a great strategical chess match. Both have a great resume in the UFC too, showing a mirrored effort from both men. This is a toss up,

but I think Means will edge Oliveira in a close one.



Antonio Carlos Jr. vs. Marvin Vettori

An international affair is set to take place next, as Brazil’s Antonio Carlos Jr. looks to sour the UFC tenure of Marvin Vettori. At just 23-years old, the Italian Vettori is one of the top middleweight prospects in the UFC. He choked out BJJ black belt Alberto Uda in his UFC debut, announcing his arrival to the company. While his ground game is great, he may want to strike with Carlos — a BJJ black belt in his own right who has had an interesting UFC career. He has not won two UFC bouts in a row and is just 3-2 (1 NC) under the UFC banner. He is coming off a win over Leonardo Guimaraes, though, who he choked out in the third round. This will be a tough battle,

but I think Carlos has the experience edge in competition, which could help him.



Brandon Thatch vs. Niko Price

Sabah Homasi was set to fight on this card, but he was pulled in favor of teammate and UFC newcomer Niko Price, who battles Brandon Thatch in an exciting preliminary bout. Thatch is a big, poweful striker that has fallen on tough times. After two impressive victories upon entry to the UFC, he has lost three straight, meaning his job is likely on the line. All three losses were via submission. As for Price, he is undefeated at 8-0 and has won most of his bouts via TKO.

He hasn’t fought the level of competition that Thatch has and I feel Thatch is going to light him up on the feet en route to a stoppage.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Toe-to-Toe: UFC 207 Preview and Predictions


Combat Press writers Dan Kuhl and Rob Tatum break down all of the action in this edition of Toe-to-Toe.



Ronda Rousey is back, but will it be the same? Rousey’s aura of invincibility was brought to a screeching halt when she was blasted by Holly Holm and dropped her women’s bantamweight championship belt to the former star boxer. Now, more than a year removed from the loss, Rousey returns to challenge Amanda Nunes for the belt. Will Rousey regain her lethal form, or has the time away and the distraction of Hollywood caused her to slip? Will Nunes cement herself as a member of the elite by defeating the formerly unbeatable Rousey?

Kuhl: At then end of the day, Rousey is still one of the greatest female fighters to grace the Octagon. She is at the highest level of judo, her submissions are damn near unstoppable, and her striking has improved immensely over the years. The “Rowdy” one will always be a danger as long as she wants to be, which is really the biggest question mark. People can talk about her movie career, her boyfriend, her supposed depression after her loss to Holm and her time out of the cage, but the thing that is the most concerning is when she came out and said she won’t be fighting much longer. And that happened before she had even been back in action. Unless it’s just a ploy, that’s not a great mentality going into a title fight.

Nunes, on the other hand, is blazing hot right now. She’s hungry, she wants to fight Rousey, and she has all the tools to pull off a win. She’s also in a position over Rousey that only Miesha Tate has been in — she’s the champ. Nunes is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a judo brown belt, and she’s got nine knockouts in 13 fights. This is no easy opponent for Rousey, and, compared to her previous UFC opponents, Nunes has a serious mental advantage.

Rousey, unlike most professional athletes, has had this sort of regression, where the more she won, the more stubborn, pouty and immature she seemed to have become. I wouldn’t stop short of using the term “diva.” Of course she reacted the way she did after her loss, but most athletes will pick themselves up, dust off and get right back to work. She did not do that. This week, she went so far as to block Nunes on Instagram, which is not exactly a symbol of maturity. I don’t bring this up as a judgement on Rousey, because none of us are perfect. It does, however, lead me to believe that she is not in a good place mentally. Frankly, Rousey’s biggest advantage is that she has an opportunity to get redemption, which she did not have in the Olympics.

Nunes is not in movies. The Brazilian is not in a high-profile relationship. She has not acted like a diva, and she has no plans to retire any time soon. She has blazed through three veterans and took a decision win over high-level kickboxer Valentina Shevchenko – the Russian’s only loss in the last six years. I’m not a psychiatrist by any means, but I have to give the champ the advantage in this one.

I have Nunes winning by knockout.


Tatum: I can’t really argue with anything my colleague has said about this fight. I share the same concerns regarding Rousey’s mental state. Her long layoff may have been a great opportunity for her to improve on her weaknesses, but at this point there is little evidence of that happening. It appears that Rousey has one foot out the door before she even steps into the cage with Nunes. Add in her refusal to do any media prior to the fight, and the assessment that she is still struggling mentally seems like a sound judgment.

That said, there’s also the possibility that Rousey has been heavily focused and just wants to eliminate all of the distractions. The former champion had a hellacious schedule while the promotion milked her for every dollar it could generate. And with the schedule, she deserves credit for helping change the perception of women’s MMA, even if she wasn’t the first one to do it. She no longer has the aura of invincibility to live up to now that Holm kicked her from the mountain top. The concern, however, is that she hasn’t changed camps or taken any drastic measures to correct the glaring flaws in her stand-up game that were exposed by Holm. Nunes has to be chomping at the bit to attack those same weaknesses.

I’ve been fortunate enough to watch both of these tremendous athletes compete firsthand on many occasions, but that makes this fight even more difficult to assess. I was there when Nunes was rag-dolled by Sarah D’Alelio for three rounds. This is the same D’Alelio that Rousey submitted in 25 seconds. Or how about Cat Zingano? Nunes fell via third-round TKO, whereas Rousey finished Zingano in 14 seconds. MMA math rarely holds up, but it’s hard to ignore the common opponents.

Nunes has grown leaps and bounds since changing to American Top Team, but she cannot get overly aggressive with someone with Rousey’s ground skills. If she employs a strategy like Zingano, she may be tapping before she lands her first punch. But if she’s patient, Nunes has the striking skills to embarrass Rousey all over again. I’ll echo Dan’s prediction and take Nunes by first-round knockout.



After first-round knockouts in his last three fights, Cody Garbrandt is stepping up to challenge Dominick Cruz for the men’s bantamweight title. Can Garbrandt shine, or is Cruz going to prove too much for the young challenger?

Tatum: On paper, this fight looks like a bit of a mismatch. Cruz has dominated the 135-pound division for the better part of a decade, whereas Garbrandt just hit the double-digit fight threshold. The experience discrepancy grows even larger when you dive into each fighter’s resume a little deeper. Cruz has gone the full 25 minutes on six occasions. Garbrandt has only seen the third round on two instances and only once has he gone the distance. But the great equalizer in this fight could be the 25-year-old’s devastating knockout power.

Everyone knows what they get with Cruz in the cage. His footwork and movement is unmatched by anyone in the division. It has caused fits for every opponent he’s faced, including Garbrandt’s mentor Urijah Faber and former teammate T.J. Dillashaw. The champion is able to get in and out of the pocket very quickly and his opponents struggle to put their hands on him. When he does get hit, Cruz mixes in timely takedowns to keep his challengers guessing. It’s a strategy that has paid off time and time again, and even with his three-year injury layoff, Cruz hasn’t missed a beat inside the cage.

Although the focus in this fight will be Garbrandt’s knockout power — seven of his nine knockout victories have come inside the first round — fans shouldn’t ignore his 32-1 record as an amateur boxer, nor the fact that he was a state-champion wrestler in Ohio. His boxing background could be a bigger factor in this fight than his power. With the exception of the aforementioned Dillashaw, the majority of Cruz’s opponents have been overmatched on the feet and haven’t been able to touch him with regularity. Garbrandt’s use of angles and counterstrikes could change that. Couple that with his underrated wrestling and it’s easy to see that Garbrandt earned the title shot for more than just his pre-fight trash talk.

As for whether Garbrandt can solve the Cruz puzzle, that’s another story. Even with his boxing prowess, natural power and the knowledge supplied by the multiple-time Cruz foe Faber, it’s just hard to envision Garbrandt being able to keep up with the pace of the champion. His best bet will be early in the fight if he can establish range and stun Cruz. That’s something that no one has been able to do to date. Over the course of five rounds, Cruz will simply outwork Garbrandt and cruise to yet another decision victory.


Kuhl: I completely agree. Garbrandt is a power-puncher, and, while, in recent interviews, he claims he can go five rounds with Cruz, he has only gone to decision once, it was only three rounds, and it was against Henry Briones, who is not exactly known for frustrating opponents well into deep waters. It is not likely that Garbrandt will finish the elusive Cruz in the first or second round, which means he will likely enter uncharted territory with one of the most frustrating fighters in the business. The champ also has the height and reach advantage.

Cruz takes this one the distance and leaves Garbrandt battered and broken down. The youngster has a bright future and is by no means a flash in the pan, but this is not a great match-up for him.



In addition to the bantamweight title fight, this card also features former titleholder T.J. Dillashaw against Brazil’s John Lineker in what most see as a No. 1 contender match-up. Will Dillashaw prove to be too savvy for the hard-hitting Lineker, or will Lineker score another highlight-reel finish?

Kuhl: My initial response to the first question is yes. For a former NCAA Division I wrestler, Dillashaw is, by far, one of the most technically proficient strikers in all of MMA. It also doesn’t hurt that four of his last five fights were title fights. He also has a three-inch height advantage, which is pretty rare for him.

My answer to the second question could also easily be yes. Lineker is a fantastic fighter. He has a ton of experience — 36 fights at only 26 years old — and he’s been in the UFC for four and a half years, but he has routinely missed weight, which is likely why we’re just seeing him in a contender fight now. It was a split decision win over former flyweight title challenger John Dodson that put him in this position, and he also poses an interesting problem for Dillashaw in that he has never been knocked out.

This fight is an obvious “Fight of the Night” candidate. Both of these guys are technical, hard-hitting fighters with a tight ground game. Both of them want a shot at the coveted UFC bantamweight title, which Dillashaw used to hold, but, as of now, nobody has ever taken from Dominick Cruz. That could change when Cruz faces a tough test in Dillashaw’s former teammate Garbrandt, but one of these guys is next in line.

This is a tough one to call, but I’m going to go with Dillashaw by decision. His technical striking will earn him the nod on the judges’ scorecards.


Tatum: Just thinking about this fight gets me excited, but also frustrated that Lineker was never able to get a handle on his weight while competing in the flyweight division. Whether it’s Dillashaw or the champion Cruz, the Brazilian is going to have a size and reach disadvantage. Even with his fan-friendly, brawling style, he’s going to have to overcome a lot to hold a belt at 135 pounds.

Dillashaw’s striking is far and away more technical than anything Lineker can offer. Working with Duane Ludwig, the former champion has developed fluid combinations and a knack for getting in and out of the pocket without getting hit. It wasn’t enough to allow him to top Cruz, but against the wild-swinging Lineker, it should prove to be the difference in the fight.

Lineker thrives on forward pressure and backing his opponents against the fence. That allows him to work the body and overwhelm with flurries. It narrowly worked against the aforementioned Dodson, but Dillashaw’s footwork is much better than the footwork of Dodson. Lineker needs Dillashaw to make a mistake and then hope to catch him with a heavy shot — ironically, the same thing Dodson did when he fought Dillashaw. I just don’t see it happening, though. Dillashaw wins by decision.



Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Kuhl: I love the match-up between Tim Means and Alex Oliveira. Both guys are riding two-fight winning streaks. Their last two losses came against Matt Brown and Donald Cerrone, respectively, and both of them are strikers who love to go to war. This is going to be a great fight between two guys who have been slowly but surely climbing the division, and both need a big win to stay relevant in a super-stacked welterweight division.


Tatum: As much fun as Mean and Oliveira will be, I’m a little surprised that my cohort passed over the flyweight match-up between Louis Smolka and Ray Borg.

This fight has “Fight of the Night” written all over it. You have two of the best scramblers in the division squaring off to kick off the pay-per-view, and they’re both hungry for a win after dropping their last outings. Smolka was stunned by Brandon Moreno and saw his four-fight winning streak come to a halt, while Borg fell on the scorecard to Justin Scoggins to halt his three-fight streak.

Expect a lightning-fast pace throughout in this one. Smolka is slightly more technical, but Borg might have the speed advantage. There will be lots of submission attempts and crazy reversals, but Smolka will eke it out on the scorecards.




Kuhl’s Picks

Nunes Nunes
Cruz
Dillashaw
Kim
Smolka
Magny
Carlos Junior
Garcia
Thatch
Means


Tatum’s Picks

Nunes
Cruz
Dillashaw
Kim
Smolka
Magny
Vettori
Garcia
Thatch
Means

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 207: Rousey to regain her throne in style
from betfair



Recommended Bets

Back Ronda Rousey to beat Amanda Nunes
Back Ronda Rousey to win in Round 2 (15/2) Round 3 (13/1)

 

[NewYorkKnight]

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Amanda Nunes vs. Ronda Rousey UFC 207: The Complete Breakdown
from Patrick Wyman - Bleacher Report



Amanda Nunes

Record: 13-4 (9 KO, 3 SUB, 1 DEC)

Height: 5'8"

Reach: 69 inches

Athleticism and explosiveness define Nunes' game. The champion is quick, powerful and dangerous in every phase and from every position, with the ability to finish her opponent at range, in the clinch and on the mat.

Nunes used to rely heavily on her physical gifts as a striker, but since moving to American Top Team in 2014, she has become much crisper and more technically sound on the feet. She's still a lethal puncher who occasionally gets a bit wild, but her fundamentals have drastically improved.

Footwork is a strength of Nunes' game, and she takes tight, crisp angles and pivots with every movement. This is partially why Nunes' punches seem so devastating: She has a knack for finding the angle that gives her fist an uninterrupted path to her opponent's chin, jaw or temple. Her tendency to move her punches around, under and through her opponent's guard accentuates this ability.

While she peppers her opponent with hard jabs and slashing kicks at distance, all of this makes Nunes especially dangerous in the pocket. She moves her head as she throws and isn't easy to hit in general, while her footwork allows her to throw, immediately step off to a new angle and then throw again as she keeps herself relatively safe in the process.

The clinch is a strong secondary area for Nunes. She owns a variety of slick trips and throws and can land vicious knees, punches and elbows in close quarters. It's hard to hold her in a tie-up if she doesn't want to be there and she has great instincts for framing or overhooking to create space and escape.

As dangerous as she is on the feet and in the clinch, Nunes is a monster from top position. She has a heavy base, great posture and passes smoothly into dominant positions. All of this makes her a bomber of a ground striker, and her punches and elbows from the top are the most devastating in the division. She can bust her opponent open and finish in just a few shots.

If that weren't enough, Nunes is also a slick scrambler. She has great instincts for jumping on an opponent's back and sliding in the rear-naked choke, especially after hurting her opponent with strikes.

There's a downside to this explosive, dangerous game, though, and it's cardio. Nunes is at heart a burst fighter, and while she can score a bit at range, she does her best work in terrifying flurries of offense, both on the feet and on the ground, when she senses an opening.

If not much is happening, she's content to throw five or so probing strikes in a minute, but if she smells blood, she'll throw 30 or more trying to get the finish. That drains her gas tank quickly, but it's equally connected to her greatest weakness and her greatest strength.




Ronda Rousey

Record: 12-1 (3 KO, 9 SUB)

Height: 5'7"

Reach: 68 inches

Rousey, a bronze medalist in judo at the 2008 Olympics, is a marvel of athleticism, physicality and skill in her area of specialty. The ease with which she tore through her first 12 professional opponents, none of whom lasted longer than 11 minutes, is a testament to her talent.

At her core, Rousey is an aggressive swarmer. She moves forward from the opening bell, pumping a consistent and heavy jab as she pushes her way into striking range. When she reaches the pocket, Rousey unloads with a hard right hand and left hook, both of which carry serious power.

Although she's a dangerous puncher and is happy to trade at close range, striking is just a bridge that carries Rousey into her wheelhouse, the clinch. The judoka owns the deep arsenal of trips and throws that you would expect from someone with her background, all of them executed with astounding technical skill, strength and especially timing.

Nasty takedowns are only a piece of what makes Rousey's clinch game so dangerous. She's also an accomplished inside striker, blending punches, elbows and knees into a seamless whole that both does tremendous damage and sets up her takedowns.

She's particularly dangerous against the fence, where she can use head pressure to pin her opponent in place, and she's so strong that she can control her opponent with just one collar tie while landing shots. When Rousey exits, she usually has a strike waiting for her opponent.

As soon as the fight hits the floor, Rousey starts looking for her trademark armbar. She has a variety of setups for her favorite submission, ranging from basic chains in the guard to lightning-fast entries in transitions and scrambles. She can finish it belly-down, from her back or even, as we saw against Cat Zingano, with a creative combination of her legs and armpit.

If that weren't enough, Rousey is also a devastating ground striker when she puts her mind to it, showing off strong posture and heavy hands.

That's the good side of Rousey's game, but as Holm made clear, there are also some serious downsides that perhaps we all should have caught earlier.

First, Rousey doesn't like getting hit. She doesn't cringe away after eating a shot, though, unlike some other damage-averse fighters. Instead, taking a punch seems to enrage her, as if she has to prove to herself that she's tough enough to keep coming. Unfortunately, getting hit seems to rob her of her judgment and her ability to stick to a plan.

That first flaw leads directly into her second. Despite her aggression and love of forward movement, Rousey isn't a skilled pressure fighter; her footwork is decent at best, and she's not good at using strikes to cut off her opponent's lateral movement. When she gets hit, she tends to ditch the few pressure tools she has in favor of maddened bull-rushing.

Finally, Rousey is a bad defensive fighter. Her aggression means she's practically always there to be hit, she never moves her head and she makes only limited use of parries and blocks. Especially after she eats a shot or two, she enters only on straight lines, so it doesn't take a genius to find her chin and plant a punch or kick on it. Surprisingly, she's not a strong defensive wrestler, either.


Prediction

This is a fascinating matchup, and more than anything it hinges on questions about Rousey's psychological state and how much she has been able to improve in the last year.

If Rousey shows up looking like the same fighter who seemed lost against the basic stick-and-move game plan Holm employed, Nunes is going to knock her block off. Holm is a relatively light puncher, and she still busted up Rousey's face and put her off her game. Nunes is a real one-punch knockout artist, and she wouldn't need all 38 strikes (per Fightmetric) that Holm landed before the head-kick finish last year.

With that said, Rousey still has paths to victory. Nunes is aggressive herself and has a bad habit of gassing, so it's easy to see her selling out for a finish early after rocking Rousey, getting tired and then conceding an easy takedown and armbar to a bloodied Rousey.

That's less likely than Rousey charging in, Nunes blasting her with counters and eventually catching her with a knockout shot.



Nunes knocks Rousey out late in the first round.

 

[NewYorkKnight]