UFC 205 - Betting Info / Predictions / Breakdowns

[NewYorkKnight]

Liz Carmouche +160
Katlyn Chookagian -185

Tim Boetsch +140
Rafael Natal -160

Jim Miller +150
Thiago Alves -170

Rashad Evans +205
Tim Kennedy -245

Michael Johnson +210
Khabib Nurmagomedov -290

Jeremy Stephens +290
Frankie Edgar -350

Raquel Pennington +160
Miesha Tate -185

Kelvin Gastelum +130
Donald Cerrone -150

Yoel Romero +150
Chris Weidman -170

Karolina Kowalkiewicz +325
Joanna Jedrzejczyk -400

Tyron Woodley +165
Stephen Thompson -190

Eddie Alvarez +135
Conor McGregor -155

 

[NewYorkKnight]

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz: The Complete Breakdown
from Patrick Wyman - Bleacher Report




Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Record: 12-0 (4 KO, 1 SUB, 7 DEC)

Height: 5'6"

Reach: 65"

Jedrzejczyk is one of the cleanest, most technically sound strikers in MMA. She's a veteran of 70 amateur and professional kickboxing matches and a former pupil of the great Ernesto Hoost, and that deep well of experience and time spent drilling with outstanding coaches shows in her perfect fundamentals, calm under pressure and adaptability.

The jab is the foundation of Jedrzejczyk's game. She fires it off early and often, using it to establish her range, set her rhythm and score points. Everything else the champion does builds on this single strike, which she moves between the head and the body with varied timing.

Once she has her opponent reacting to the jab, the full flower of Jedrzejczyk's striking game comes into the open. She can pepper her opponent with hard, forward-moving punch-kick combinations that utilize all three levels in a single sequence: The jab-cross-left hook to the liver-right low kick is a particular favorite.

She can also stick and move against a pressuring opponent, using the jab and a vicious front kick to the face or body to enforce distance and then picking her spots to sit down on a hard combination when her opponent overcommits.

When necessary, Jedrzejczyk can pressure, using her jab and kicks in conjunction with slick footwork to force her opponent toward the fence. Once there, the champion flurries like few in the sport, sticking together head-body sequences of up to 20 strikes at a time.

In each of these potential approaches, Jedrzejczyk's fundamentals shine through. The economy of motion in her strikes is exceptional, and there's no wasted energy at all. Her pivots and footwork are exceptional; she never moves an inch more or less than she should, and it's difficult to pin her against the fence. Counters are a specialty, and overaggressive opponents have to eat three or four shots just to land one.

Jedrzejczyk pushes one of the best paces in the sport. Three things contribute to this: her clean fundamentals, which mean that she's efficient with every technique; her command of range, which means she's always close enough to land strikes; and finally her combinations, because she's always throwing three or more strikes at a time.

It doesn't matter how good a striker a fighter might be if she can't stuff takedowns, and Jedrzejczyk has developed some of the best defensive wrestling skills in the sport. Her command of distance makes it hard to get a clean shot at her in the first place, and she knows how to respond when her opponent does grab ahold, using the cage well to help her scramble back to her feet.

What's even more impressive is how Jedrzejczyk punishes her opponents for trying to shoot on her. Every time she can create space in these transitions, the champion slashes away with elbows and knees. She has even added a few takedowns of her own as a complement to her defensive skills in recent fights.

If that weren't enough, Jedrzejczyk is also a monster of a clinch fighter who puts her long frame to good use on the inside. She's a master of elbows and knees and needs only a tiny bit of space to land something devastating.

There aren't many weaknesses to the champion's game. She hasn't shown much as a grappler, though she seems to be defensively sound from her back and throws with power whenever she gets on top. Defense in the pocket isn't her strongest suit, and she could stand to move her head a little more. These are minor concerns, though.



Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Record: 10-0 (1 KO, 2 SUB, 7 DEC)

Height: 5'3"

Reach: 65"

Kowalkiewicz is a tough, durable and hard-nosed fighter who has made consistent improvements in her brief MMA career. She's not a great athlete and doesn't hit particularly hard, but she has built a reliable, effective game based on constant movement and offensive output.

The weight of volume Kowalkiewicz puts on her opponents is what allows her to win. She circles and circles, picking her spots to dart into range with a few punches and a kick, and then she exits. As soon as she's back in open space, she starts circling again and repeats the process.

The sheer pace at which Kowalkiewicz does this is staggering: She routinely throws 25 or 30 strikes in a minute.

To keep her opponent at distance and out of the pocket, Kowalkiewicz flashes a consistent jab that gives her just enough room to pivot and move. It's rare to see her get caught against the fence, and in general she has a great sense of how to use the space of the cage to her advantage. She doesn't have the crisp, perfect footwork of Jedrzejczyk, but it's good enough, and she understands the big picture of ringcraft.

There are a couple of problems with this approach, though. The first is the utter lack of anything resembling power in Kowalkiewicz's punches when she's working this kind of high-volume, movement-based game. She never sets her feet under her, and this means she's throwing nothing but arm punches. It's clear this is the issue, because when her feet are actually under her, she has some pop.

The second is defense. Like many outside fighters, Kowalkiewicz depends on distance and angles to avoid her opponent's strikes. When she is in range, however, it's not at all hard to put leather on her. She's especially vulnerable to counterpunches as she enters with one of her combinations, as she rarely pulls her head off the center line as she throws and doesn't use much head movement in general.

The best facet of Kowalkiewicz's game is actually the clinch, not her outside striking. It's why she doesn't particularly mind overshooting when she darts into range; if she winds up in the clinch, she's happy to be there so long as she doesn't get stuck in punching distance.

While she's not large, Kowalkiewicz's technique in the clinch makes her a handful to deal with. She gets great leverage on her double-collar tie and gets her hips into her knee strikes. She needs only a tiny amount of space to land a slashing elbow. There's real power in her clinch strikes compared to her punches.

Once she has her hands on her opponent, Kowalkiewicz is a whirling dervish of offense and brings the same kind of pace she prefers at range.

Kowalkiewicz looks for the occasional trip in the clinch and knows what she's doing in terms of passes, control and strikes from top position, but that's only a minor part of her game. She has outstanding takedown defense, especially against the fence, and she is a competent defensive grappler.



Prediction

It's hard to imagine a worse matchup for Kowalkiewicz on every level, from the broad outlines of strategy to the specific manifestations of technique that will play out from exchange to exchange.

In the big picture, Jedrzejczyk can match or exceed Kowalkiewicz's pace, her best asset, while landing with substantially cleaner technique, more variety and more power. Moreover, the champion is every bit the clinch fighter Kowalkiewicz is and much more, with greater size and better leverage on the inside. Kowalkiewicz doesn't have the takedown game to threaten an outstanding defensive wrestler, either.

Things don't get any better when we break down the specifics. Jedrzejczyk is an outstanding counterpuncher, and Kowalkiewicz is vulnerable as she enters and exits with her combinations. The champion's jab will make it difficult for Kowalkiewicz to find the range she prefers when she circles.

Kowalkiewicz's path to victory revolves around frustrating the champion with her in-and-out game, and that seems unlikely.


Jedrzejczyk will slowly break her down with combinations and finish with a flurry of strikes in the fourth round.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 205 Cheat Sheet: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Donald Cerrone




Cerrone: 31-7 record (18-4 UFC); 18 wins is tied for third most in UFC history

Cerrone: 3-fight win streak since moving to welterweight

Gastelum: 12-2 record (7-2 UFC); 2-2 in past 4 fights

Gastelum: 66 percent significant strike defense, third highest among active UFC welterweights



Breakdown

Cerrone's professional MMA career hit the 10-year mark in 2016, and if you go back through the past decade, he has only lost to the very top of the lightweight division.

Gastelum is a difficult fight to handicap; he's definitely not a lightweight. The verdict is still somewhat out on whether he's even a welterweight. The 25-year-old is just a heavy body out there in this division. He's built like a tank but one that still moves very well.

Cerrone's best weapon was his body kick in his last fight against another bullish, strong welterweight in Rick Story. Minutes in, Cerrone had basically removed Story's will to fight. Those kicks to the body froze Story and turned him into a stationary target for one of the best finishing sequences of the year. There's a chance Cerrone could do something similar to Gastelum, although Gastelum mixes his range better, which will make it more challenging.


Prediction: Gastelum by second-round TKO.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 205 Predictions: Conor McGregor vs Eddie Alvarez
from Real Sport 101



Daniel Binnzy:

I'm going for a Conor win, TKO in the third round. I think he's going to have too much on the feet for Eddie, who himself is an accomplished striker. Having fought Diaz twice, Mcgregor will have worked hard on his takedown defence and will be aware of how good Eddie has been in recent fights from a wrestling standpoint.

If Eddie does execute his game plan as well as he did against Pettis and RDA, he may frustrate Conor but I think there may just be too much of a difference in terms of striking.



Arton Kukaj:

I think you're really underestimating Eddie's striking. He's not some up-and-coming fighter. The man's 28-4 and champion for a reason. He's got knockout power like Conor. McGregor is a tough SOB, but the lightweight division is stacked with killers.

I think wins this Eddie by unanimous decision. They're both going to be cautious of each other's power. If Conor does win, then kudos to him man, but I've got Eddie



Ricky Beschizza:

I've got Conor by TKO. I like Eddie a lot but Conor has this one in my eyes. I think he takes this by second round stoppage.



Ben Chopping:

I don't know a huge amount about Alvarez unfortunately. But I would guess that McGregor would employ similar tactics to what he did against Diaz, quite defensive but enforcing clinical striking as the key, along with draining leg kicks. With that being said, Eddie will edge it due to his natural size advantage.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Fight Pass 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 1
from Patrick L. Stumberg - MMA Mania



155 lbs.: Thiago Alves vs. Jim Miller

Ravaged by injuries, Thiago Alves (21-10) fought just once between 2012 and2015, winning a decision over Seth Baczynski. He returned in January and knocked out Jordan Mein before suffering a knockout loss of his own to Carlos Condit the following May.

This will be both his Lightweight debut and his first fight in more than 17 months.

Jim Miller (27-8) -- once on the brink of the Top 10 -- suffered a 1-4 stretch from the end of 2014 to the beginning of 2016, the sole win a split decision over Danny Castillo. He’s recently righted the ship somewhat with consecutive victories over Takanori Gomi and Joe Lauzon.

He has submitted 14 opponents as a professional.

If this fight took place about four or five years ago, I’d be all over it. As is, it’s more wince-worthy than drool-worthy. Alves is held together with duct tape and positive thinking at this point, while Miller’s only quality performance in his last seven fights came against the smoking ruin of "Fireball Kid."

That’s not even mentioning the fact that Alves -- whose adversarial relationship with the Welterweight limit is the stuff of legend -- is trying to cut another 15 pounds. Assuming everything works out for him, though, he has the stylistic edge. His wrestling is every bit as good as Miller’s and his overall striking technique outstrips his foe’s. If he can get his dried-out jerky slab of a body to the scale and then to the cage, he takes a competitive decision.


Prediction: Alves via unanimous decision



170 lbs.: Belal Muhammad vs. Vicente Luque

Belal Muhammad (10-1) -- fresh off a knockout of Steve Carl for the Titan FC title -- gave Alan Jouban all he could handle in his "Fight of the Night"-winning debut despite losing the decision. "Remember the Name" returned two months later to pound out Augusto Montaño in Hidalgo, Texas, and earn his first UFC victory.

He has knocked out four opponents overall and will give up an inch of height to Luque.

After losing to Hayder Hassan in the climactic fight of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 21 and to Michael Graves in his official Octagon debut, Vicente Luque (10-5-1) proved his mettle with three consecutive stoppage victories. Most recently, he obliterated Hector Urbina in 60 seconds with one of the year’s best one-punch knockouts.

He replaces Lyman Good, who ran afoul of USADA approximately two weeks before fight night.

Luque’s just 24 years old and looks like he could make a real dent in the division, but the style match up isn’t in his favor. Muhammad figures to have a slight edge on the feet and his sturdy counter-wrestling takes Luque’s submission prowess out of the equation. Muhammad also knows how to work the body and wear down opponents, which could pay great dividends considering Luque’s lack of prep time.

The Brazilian is dangerous enough to make Muhammad work for it, but expect the latter to take a clear decision as he takes over down the stretch.


Prediction: Muhammad via unanimous decision



135 lbs.: Liz Carmouche vs. Kaitlyn Chookagian

Liz Carmouche (10-5) -- who squared off with Ronda Rousey in the UFC’s first-ever women’s fight -- has gone even (2-2) since falling short in that bout. In her most recent fight, "Girl-Rilla" out-gritted Invicta standout Lauren Murphy to snap a two-fight losing streak.

This will be her first fight in 18 months.

Kaitlyn Chookagian (8-0) joined UFC with two CFFC belts around her waist and a 45-second knockout in her most recent effort. She kept up the momentum with a decision win over Lauren Murphy at UFC 191.

She is three inches taller than Carmouche at 5’9."

Carmouche’s major issue is that, while she possesses one of the division’s best top games, she’s very limited on the feet and doesn’t always set up her takedowns well when she can’t physically overpower her foes. Chookagian may have spent a significant chunk of her career at Flyweight, but she more than held her own against Murphy’s grappling and figures to have the striking edge.

If Carmouche was more consistently effective with her wrestling and wasn’t coming off such a long layoff, she’d have a great shot here. With said issues and Chookagian’s strong recent performance, though, I’m picking her to keep her undefeated record intact.


Prediction: Chookagian via unanimous decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 205 Primer: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Michael Johnson Head-to-Toe Breakdown
from Craig Amos - Bleacher Report


Striking
Johnson has put in some underwhelming striking performances. His tussles with Nate Diaz and Beneil Dariush come to mind. But he's also turned in some fantastic showings. His thrashing Joe Lauzon, his defeat of Edson Barboza and his knockout of Dustin Poirier serve as reminders of how dangerous he can be.
Though Johnson wields some power, it's his speed and volume that stand out. These skills enable him to throw with solid accuracy and to post good defensive metrics, but the number that stands out is his 3.94 strikes landed per minute.
Nurmagomedov, perhaps surprisingly, almost matches Johnson's gaudy output. The Russian lands 3.27 strikes per minute, according to FightMetric, and is considerably more accurate with his strikes. Of course, those numbers are inflated by all the time Nurmagomedov spends on top of grounded, untenable opponents.
Nurmagomedov is also a superior defensive striker to Johnson. Whereas he makes foes miss 69 percent of the time, Johnson makes his opponents whiff at 60 percent.
The edge goes to Johnson still, but not by an extensive margin.
Edge: Johnson


Grappling
Nurmagomedov is averaging 6.71 takedowns per 15 minutes of time in the Octagon, says FightMetric. If you're unfamiliar with standard rates, 6.71 is bordering on absurd. His 49 percent success rate is maybe not quite as ridiculous, but it's still impressive, especially since opponents know his takedowns are coming.
Johnson has a higher success rate, succeeding on 53 percent of his attempts. Of course, he doesn't match the volume of Nurmagomedov, but that's an impressive clip nonetheless.
Defensively, both fighters are stalwarts, foiling over 80 percent of incoming takedown attempts. Nurmagomedov has had to deal with some especially effective grapplers, but Johnson, too, has shown well against varying levels of competition.
The numbers paint a picture of two excellent grapplers, and that matches up with the eye test. But Nurmagomedov's versatility from the clinch, superior top-control and sheer unwavering pursuit of the takedown gives him a leg up. Johnson holds a grappling edge against most fighters, but his UFC 205 opponent is most certainly an exception.
Edge: Nurmagomedov


Submissions
There's no reason to be coy about this element of the fight. Nurmagomedov is the better submission fighter in every regard. He's more active in hunting the finish, more efficient in sinking in holds and defends better than Johnson does.
If one thing is working in Johnson's favor, it's that the gap has narrowed in recent years. Johnson still generally ignores submissions, but at least his once-porous defense has improved immensely. After being submitted five times in his first 15 fights, Johnson has been submitted just once in his last 12. Nurmagomedov, meanwhile, last submitted an opponent in 2012.
Despite Johnson's development, this remains the most one-sided area of the matchup and may well represent the most probable path to a finish for either fighter.
Edge: Nurmagomedov


X-Factors

Nurmagomedov's X-Factor: Getting into a groove
Nurmagomedov returned from a two-year layoff earlier in 2016. He won the fight against late-replacement signee Darrell Horcher at a catchweight, but not without struggling through some dicey moments. It was surprising to see Nurmagomedov in danger, especially against an unheralded counterpart.
Really for the first time, Nurmagomedov appeared vulnerable. We should credit Horcher somewhat, but we can't ignore that Nurmagomedov was coming from a pair of injuries and long absence from competition. He managed to gut out the win, but he'll need to put in a better showing against Johnson.
Nurmagomedov's health, confidence and comfort are variables we can only guess at right now, but the answers will go a long way towards determining the outcome of this fight.


Johnson's X-Factor: Be the good Michael Johnson
Maybe it's general to say Johnson must perform well, but it's also a relevant statement given his historical inconsistencies. Because while his knockout of Dustin Poirier is fresh in the minds of UFC fans, that victory is only one fight removed from two underwhelming defeats.
Before the aforementioned string of fights, Johnson defeated Tony Ferguson, Joe Lauzon and Edson Barboza, while losing to Reza Madadi, Paul Sass and Jonathan Brookins. The opponent barely seems to have a bearing on whether Johnson wins or loses.
If Johnson shows up and fights his best fight, an upset is a real possibility. If he suffers another off day, this will be a beating.


Prediction
This is a matchup in which the previously referenced X-factors will play a large role.
The version of Johnson that knocked out Dustin Poirier and outstruck Edson Barboza beats a tentative, uncomfortable Nurmagomedov.
If Johnson turns in one of the mulligan-worthy performances that spot his professional record, he doesn't stand a chance, regardless of how on-point Nurmagomedov is.
Of course, Nurmagomedov holds the trump card—performing at the top of his game. There's no version of Johnson, and perhaps no version of any lightweight fighter, who beats that man.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov def. Johnson, submission, Rd. 2

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 205 Fight Breakdown: Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
from MMA Odds Breaker



Joanna Jedrzejcyk (Record: 12-0, -410 Favorite, Power Ranking: A)

The UFC strawweight champion enters her fourth title defense with an unblemished professional record. She’s coming off her toughest test to date where she came from behind and dominated the championship rounds to a win over rival Claudia Gadelha.

The five-time IFMA world champion is without question the top striker in the strawweight division. Her Muay Thai accolades speak volumes to her ability on the feet. The first female European champion in UFC history, Jedrzejczyk lands strikes with a fantastic volume of over six significant strikes per minute in the Octagon. Perhaps even more impressive is that she only absorbs 2.32 significant strikes a minute for a difference of over four strikes per minute or nearly 100 strikes over a 25-minute contest compared to her opponents. Jedrzejczyk does a great job of putting pressure on her opponents and firing off combinations. Once she sees an opening, she fires five or six shots in combination. In a striking contest, she’s going to be very difficult to beat due to the volume with which she is able to throw. The champion has combined that striking arsenal with stout takedown defense. She’s defended 81 percent of takedowns attempted on her. Even in her last bout, Jedrzejczyk defended 9 of 13 takedowns against perhaps the top wrestler in the division. Joanna forces her opponents to compete with her in a stand-up contest and that’s a battle she hasn’t lost yet in her MMA career.



Karolina Kowalkiewicz (Record: 10-0, +330 Underdog, Power Ranking: B-)

The second-ranked strawweight in the world, Kowalkiewicz enters this matchup on a 10-fight winning streak having yet to lose in her professional career. She had previously been the KSW flyweight champion prior to making the jump to the UFC. In her last outing, she earned by far the biggest win of her career in out-striking fellow contender Rose Namajunas.

The Polish strawweight is very much a movement striker. She fights at a really quick pace and excels with a pick-and-pop strategy. She does very well to land with combinations and then move out of range. In the Octagon, she’s constantly moving working for an angle that gives her an advantage. Thus far in her UFC career, she’s landed at an excellent clip at 5.98 significant strikes per minute. On the flip side, she’s absorbed just 3.87 strikes per minute. In short, she lands with volume and is much tougher to hit. Her ground game is not too advanced, but she defends takedowns very well (90 percent takedown defense), and when taken down she does well to stall her opponent’s offense.



Matchup

A matchup of perhaps the two best strikers in the strawweight division sees the champion Jedrzejczyk defend her title against top contender Kowalkiewicz in an all-Polish clash. You can throw away the grappling in this matchup, as both fighters are focused in the stand-up game and will be keen to prove they are the best female striker in Poland. The offensive output is very similar for these two fighters, with the champ just above six strikes per minute, and the challenger at just under six. The key difference in this bout is defense. The champ has a 67 percent striking defense while her opponent is at 56 percent. Along those lines, Jedrzejczyk absorbs 1.5 less strikes per minute than Kowalkiewicz. In this kind of fight, I favor Jedrzejczyk. Her ability to avoid being hit should be the deciding factor in this fight. Both fighters will throw at a similar volume, but the champ is simply a lot better at avoiding her opponent’s strikes. Look for a fairly competitive fight on the feet, but at the end of each round, Jedrzejczyk should be ahead by landing more strikes. Both fighters are tough and durable. I expect this one to go the distance, with Jedrzejczyk keeping her belt by earning a unanimous-decision victory. The champion winning by decision is currently priced at -118 and worth a bet. Her last two title defenses have both gone the distance, and this one should as well.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 205 Cheat Sheet: Chris Weidman versus Yoel Romero



Weidman: 13-1 (9-1 UFC); first non-title fight since July 2012

Weidman: 56 percent takedown accuracy, second highest among active UFC middleweights

Romero: 11-1 (7-0 UFC); nine of 11 wins by knockout

Romero: 78 percent takedown defense, fifth highest among active UFC middleweights



Breakdown

One of hardest fights on the card to predict, and close betting odds support that.

Romero is a special athlete. His physical gifts stand out, even among the backdrop of his professional peers. His gas tank has always been something of a concern, but he manages that relatively well with extreme efficiency in his movement.

Weidman will pressure and should have success doing so, but his guard needs to be up at all times. He made his name against another fluid, dangerous southpaw by the name of Anderson Silva, but Romero presents other things to think about with the Olympic wrestling background. Weidman has more ways to win, but he'll always be one Romero left hand away from disaster.


Prediction: Weidman TKO, third round.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Toe-to-Toe: UFC 205 Preview and Predictions
from Combat Press



Combat Press writers Vince Carey and Bryan Henderson preview the historic event in this edition of Toe-to-Toe.



Conor McGregor is back, and this time he’s chasing after Eddie Alvarez’s lightweight title. Can the Irishman become a two-division champion?

Carey: For a long time, if I was asked if there was anyone on the UFC roster that could hold two belts simultaneously, my automatic answer was Jon Jones. In theory, such a thing should be nearly impossible to pull off since a fighter would normally have to clear out their entire division before getting a shot at a second belt. However, McGregor’s drawing power made clearing out the rest of the featherweight division an afterthought in favor of superfights. Now, he’s suddenly fighting for his second UFC title despite never defending his first. McGregor has the chance to pull off something incredible this weekend against Alvarez. Call it a gut feeling, but I think the Irishman will pull it off.

The funny thing about McGregor winning this weekend is that I’m not even sure if he’s the superior fighter. On the feet, this fight is close, with “Notorious” maybe holding a slight advantage. However, I’d take Alvarez in a grappling match all day. I like the Philadelphia native’s cardio to hold up better over the course of five rounds as well. It’s McGregor’s mental warfare and ability to draw opponents into his kind of fight that makes him such a difficult match-up, and those strengths will be twice as strong against a guy in Alvarez who wears his heart on his sleeve. Alvarez at his absolute best is a tough match-up for McGregor, but a wound-up Alvarez coming in hot and looking to make a statement is definitely a more manageable opponent.

If Alvarez is able to fight his fight and keep McGregor guessing by changing levels and mixing things up, then he should be able to take this fight. I’m just not sure he’s going to be able to stick to his game plan as well as he has in the past, especially when McGregor is bound to turn his trash talk and antics up to 100 now that it’s fight week.

This fight is incredibly tough to call. I won’t be surprised if Alvarez wins, but I’m taking McGregor by early TKO to become the first man to hold two UFC belts at the same time.


Henderson: Jones is certainly a logical pick. I’d have put Anderson Silva on that short list, too. I could probably name a few others as well, and McGregor would absolutely be one of them. As the longtime writer of the Out of Obscurity column, I’ve followed McGregor’s career as far back as his Cage Warriors days, when he defeated Dave Hill by submission to claim the British promotion’s featherweight strap and then turned around to capture the lightweight title with a complete destruction of Ivan Buchinger. Notably, he never defended either of those belts — he signed with the UFC before getting his chance to put even one of the belts on the line.

McGregor’s foray into the welterweight division has probably caused more skepticism about his abilities in the lower weight divisions. McGregor is a long fighter — despite checking in at the same height as Alvarez, he’ll enjoy roughly a five-inch reach advantage — who finally found his match at 170 pounds against a lanky fighter like Nate Diaz. Place the Irishman back in his more natural homes at lightweight and featherweight, and his size and range become far bigger advantages.

Alvarez is going to have to get inside against McGregor and take him down. It’s the smart strategy for the champ, but the question is whether he’ll take that approach. Alvarez isn’t afraid to stand toe-to-toe with anyone, and he might just want to prove he’s the better man on the feet in this fight. If that’s his approach, it all comes down to how he handles any early adversity. McGregor’s striking is an asset, and Alvarez has been known to get rocked on occasion in the early moments of fights. He’s usually found his way out of such situations, only truly succumbing to Michael Chandler in their first meeting. McGregor isn’t going to be nearly as forgiving as some of Alvarez’s previous opponents, though.

It’s pretty obvious where I’m going with all of this. Alvarez is a great fighter, and I, too, would not be surprised in the least if he does emerge with his championship belt. However, McGregor has the right mix of skills to expose Alvarez’s tendency to get rocked early and then turn up the volume where others have failed, therefore scoring the finish. While this fight is an extremely tough one to call, I think we’re going to see a new lightweight champ on Saturday night.



This card features three title fights — Eddie Alvarez and Conor McGregor for the lightweight strap, Tyron Woodley and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson for the welterweight crown, and Joanna Jędrzejczyk against Karolina Kowalkiewicz for the women’s strawweight title. Which champion has the best chance of holding onto their title? Which challenger is most likely to emerge from the event with a title belt?

Henderson: Well, the Alvarez and McGregor fight is the one that’s really too close to call, so that leaves us with the welterweight and women’s strawweight title affairs.

The champion with the best chance to hold onto his or her title? I’m saying it’s Woodley. Granted, the Mizzou Tiger wrestler and two-time NCAA Division I All-American has some holes in his game, but he’s also fighting a challenger who has what might be the most one-dimensional game of any current member of the UFC elite. Wonderboy is a striking phenom with black belts in multiple striking disciplines and seven finishes via some form of knockout. Woodley has demonstrated his own power on the feet, but his wrestling background will allow him to keep Thompson honest and potentially take the fight to the mat. Once on the ground, Woodley has the slick submission skills to keep his counterpart on the defensive or even finish him. With so many more routes to victory, it’s difficult to bet against Woodley retaining his belt.

On the other side of the coin, we have Jędrzejczyk, who has put on plenty of vicious beatings on her opponents but who has also lucked out in two extremely close fights with archrival Claudia Gadelha. Gadelha’s clinch work and wrestling overwhelmed the Polish champ early, before Gadelha ultimately faded, but the Brazilian challenger also dropped Jędrzejczyk with strikes in the first round. Jędrzejczyk’s current challenger, Kowalkiewicz, has a strong grappling and clinch attack of her own. Jędrzejczyk did defeat Kowalkiewicz back in their amateur days, but both fighters have largely improved since that time. While I expect Jędrzejczyk to retain her title, a Kowalkiewicz win would not be a shocker.


Carey: Well, I’ll agree with Mr. Henderson on one point: Alvarez and McGregor is too close to call. As for the rest of his opinions, I’m walking into UFC 205 with pretty much the exact opposite in mind.

My colleague mentioned Woodley’s wrestling as his key to victory this weekend. While he’s 100 percent correct in that assessment, I don’t see things going down in quite the same way. Woodley has some amazing NCAA credentials and has proven to be a great grappler in the cage, but Thompson has been proving himself against this kind of competition for his last few fights. Johny Hendricks and Jake Ellenberger both boasted collegiate wrestling experience, and Rory MacDonald has proven to be one of the division’s most capable wrestlers as well. Yet, Wonderboy kept them all at bay and was able to pretty much walk through these three men. This is what I see him doing to Woodley on Saturday, too.

As for the women’s title fight, after seeing her battle back and put on a clinic for the last few rounds against Gadelha, I’m officially entering “I’ll believe it when I see it” territory when it comes to the idea of a Jędrzejczyk loss. In pretty much every way possible, Gadelha is a bad match-up for the champ with the Brazilian’s pressure and size presenting a nightmare for a range-based fighter like Jędrzejczyk. Yet, Jędrzejczyk knew she just had to weather the storm. Once she did, she came out like a true champion and put a hurting on the Brazilian to get the decision. It’s going to take a phenomenal wrestler with an insane gas tank to beat this champion, and Kowalkiewicz just doesn’t fit the bill. It should be an easy night’s work for Jędrzejczyk.



UFC 205 is a historic event, marking the promotion’s first trip to the state of New York since professional MMA was legalized. What will be the one thing people talk about from this event when they reflect back on it in the years to come?

Carey: It’s really tough to answer this question before the actual card takes place. If McGregor wins, this card is just as likely to be known as the card where the Irishman became the first man to hold two belts simultaneously as it is to be known as the first card in New York. Don’t get me wrong, this is a huge deal for the sport and the card definitely deserves the treatment it’s getting. However, after another 10 or 20 events at MSG, fight fans are going to take NYC for granted. On the other hand, if McGregor wins, then he’s the first guy in the over 20-year history of the UFC to be able to claim such a feat. It might be 20 more years before someone does it again. A victory for McGregor absolutely makes him the story of the night.

However, there’s a legitimate 50/50 chance that Alvarez holds onto his belt this weekend. If he does, this card will probably be remembered just for how damn good it is from top to bottom. Since UFC 200 didn’t quite make it to fight night intact, this weekend will mark the first time in over 15 years that the promotion will have three titles defended on the same night, and the rest of the card is about as good as it gets. After how good UFC 200 was on paper, I would have said it was impossible for the UFC to beat it in 2016. Yet, the company has proven me wrong with this card. If the action delivers, this could go down as one of the all-time great nights of fights in history.


Henderson: My colleague nailed it in the second part of his response. Initially, this might be known as the first NYC card from the UFC following MMA’s legalization in the state. Or, it might be known as the night McGregor cemented his legendary status with the promotion. However, in the long term, this might be remembered as possibly the best card the UFC has ever constructed. I did cringe at my colleague’s assumption that it remains intact all the way to fight night. If it doesn’t, I’m blaming you for jinxing it, Mr. Carey.

In all seriousness, though, we’re looking at an event lineup that features relevant bouts all the way to the evening’s leadoff hitters, Liz Carmouche and Katlyn Chookagian. When was the last time you could turn on a UFC event and say that you genuinely cared about each and every fight? UFC 200 was the only other one that came close, and even it didn’t seem to pack this much intrigue into one night.



This card is stacked with former champions, with Chris Weidman, Miesha Tate, Frankie Edgar and Rashad Evans all set to compete. Which one of these former titleholders has the best night and, more importantly, which one has the best chance at using the big stage to springboard themselves back into the title mix?

Henderson: Edgar will have the best night, but Tate will have the biggest springboard, assuming she wins.

Let’s remember that Edgar’s last fight was an interim title showdown against José Aldo in which Edgar performed admirably. Before the Aldo fight, the former UFC lightweight champion had scored a series of featherweight victories against top contenders Chad Mendes and Cub Swanson and top-tier fighters Urijah Faber, B.J. Penn and Charles Oliveira. That’s not too shabby of a winning streak bracketed by losses to Aldo. Now, he’s fighting Jeremy Stephens.

The power puncher Stephens is a much improved fighter who outworked Renan Barão recently, but this is still a guy who loses to the likes of the aforementioned Swanson and Oliveira. Edgar’s volume-based attack should allow him to score points in each round. He just needs to focus on head movement and footwork while not allowing Stephens to land any haymakers. Barão couldn’t adapt to the strategy Stephens employed, but Edgar should be able to do so without breaking much of a sweat.

Edgar is a perennial contender who will get another title shot as long as he keeps winning his non-title fights, but Tate will get back to the top in quicker fashion. Why? Well, the women’s bantamweight division has been a game of musical chairs at the top. Amanda Nunes beat Tate, who beat Holly Holm, who beat Ronda Rousey, who beat Tate. Now, Rousey is challenging Nunes to complete the circle of MMA life. If Rousey wins and chooses to continue to compete, then Tate might have a difficult time getting back into a title shot. Rousey vs. Tate is a pretty tired match-up, despite any new circumstances the UFC could spin into the equation. Yet, those new circumstances could lead to another showdown (after a somewhat easier sell of Rousey vs. Holm II, of course). If Nunes wins, then Tate, along with Holm, could have renewed hopes at a quick turnaround to another championship affair.


Carey: I’m completely on board with my colleague’s choice of Tate to jump right back into the thick of the title picture. “Cupcake” is a ridiculously good fighter and is marketable in a division where star power seems to matter just as much as any current winning streak. It’s easy to see her using a win on the big stage to put herself back in the mix. The pick for which one of these fighters is going to be most impressive is more difficult, but I’ll mix it up a bit and take a shot in the dark by picking Evans to turn some heads in his middleweight debut.

After suffering multiple knee injuries and having to sit out for over two years, Evans made his return to competition last fall. The results haven’t been what the former light heavyweight champion had hoped for, however. After dropping his return bout to Ryan Bader in October 2015, Evans suffered an even more high-profile defeat in his next outing when he was knocked out in under two minutes by Glover Teixeira in one of the worst performances of “Suga’s” career. Now looking to reinvent himself at 185 pounds, Evans will turn in a throwback performance on Saturday.

Evans may be heading into this bout against Tim Kennedy as the underdog, but I’m not convinced Kennedy is going to perform at his best while fighting for the first time in over two years following a hiatus of his own. Ring rust is very real, as Evans found this out first hand when he made his return last year. Kennedy has a good chance of running into some of it this weekend. This is a massive card and fighting someone like Evans on free TV is a tremendous opportunity even for a proven fighter like Kennedy. The former Army Ranger could either suffer an adrenaline dump or just run out of gas after not fighting for a few years.

The 37-year-old Kennedy has only been finished once in his 15-year career and in over 20 fights, but Evans adds a second knockout loss to that resume this weekend.



Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Carey: I’m going to let you guys in on a little secret… There is no sleeper fight on this card, just a whole bunch of good ones that everyone has ranked differently in their heads. So while I know you’re not sleeping on it, I will say that I’m extremely excited to watch Jim Miller and Thiago Alves go to war in the main event of the Fight Pass prelims. Alves is beautifully violent. Miller loves to get into a bloodbath. It’s going to be awesome.


Henderson: My colleague is correct in implying that this is a truly stacked card. By virtue of its depth, the only reasonable choice for a sleeper would be one of the earliest fights of the night. My fellow writer opted for Alves and Miller, but I’ll go for Liz Carmouche and Katlyn Chookagian.

The 32-year-old Carmouche has been in the cage with former champs Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate. She has defeated Invicta champ Lauren Murphy and topped rising strawweight star Jessica Andrade in a bantamweight encounter. She beat Kaitlin Young and Valentina Shevchenko, and she’s been defeated by the likes of Marloes Coenen and Sarah Kaufman. In other words, Carmouche is a seasoned veteran and a tough test for any up-and-comer.

Chookagian is that up-and-comer. The New Jersey-based fighter entered the UFC with an unblemished mark through seven fights and worked her way to a decision nod over the aforementioned Murphy to claim victory in her Octagon debut. Chookagian is a strong fighter with a bright future, but she has to get through Carmouche to keep moving forward. If she emerges with the win in this one, Chookagian could be well on her way to bringing some fresh blood to the list of 135-pound female contenders.





Carey’s Picks

McGregor
Thompson
Jędrzejczyk
Weidman
Cerrone
Tate
Edgar
Nurmagomedov
Muhammad
Alves
Natal
Chookagian



Henderson’s Picks

McGregor
Woodley
Jędrzejczyk
Romero
Gastelum
Tate
Edgar
Nurmagomedov
Muhammad
Alves
Natal
Chookagian

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 205 Alvarez vs McGregor Cheat Sheet
from Damon Martin - UFC.com




SPLIT DECISION

These are the fights that are just too close to call, but a few minor differences between favorite and underdog could lead one fighter to victory and the other to defeat.


Conor McGregor (-155 favorite) vs. Eddie Alvarez (+135 underdog)

Conor McGregor has certainly proven himself as one of the best fighters on the entire UFC roster, but it's still a little surprising that he's walking into this main event as a favorite over lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez. To this point in his UFC career, McGregor still hasn't fought at 155 pounds, but the oddsmakers believe he's still favored to walk out of New York with a second title wrapped around his waist.

McGregor certainly has some advantages he'll look to exploit against Alvarez. Despite holding a title at 145 pounds, McGregor will be the bigger man walking into the Octagon against Alvarez, with a significant five-inch reach advantage on the feet. That's a huge piece of the puzzle for McGregor, who likes to use his long jab and straight punches to set up the left hand that has finished more than a few of his past opponents. If McGregor can keep Alvarez at the end of his punches for the majority of this fight, it's going to be a bad night at the office for the current champ.

As for Alvarez, pressure is going to be his best friend against someone like McGregor. Alvarez is a powerhouse offensively but he doesn't land with the same accuracy or volume as McGregor, so he has to use a variety of strikes to get the job one. Alvarez works incredibly well in the clinch and if he can pin McGregor against the cage and unload with big, heavy combinations without letting the Irishman escape, that could be a key to his victory in the end. One other component in Alvarez's favor is his incredible toughness and durability. He's been finished by strikes previously but not without first engaging in an absolute war.

There are still questions about McGregor's durability, especially in the later rounds, as witnessed in his last fight with Nate Diaz, where he faded in the fifth and nearly got finished.

Still, the fact is if McGregor can use his pinpoint accuracy and volume to hurt Alvarez early and he doesn't get overzealous with his strikes assuming he hurts the lightweight champion, he could find the right combination to finish the fight and walk out with the featherweight title on one shoulder and the lightweight title on the other.


Prediction: Conor McGregor by TKO, Round 3



Stephen Thompson (-200 favorite) vs. Tyron Woodley (+170 underdog)

Tyron Woodley knows that he earned the welterweight title with a first round knockout over Robbie Lawler, but his toughest test might come this weekend when he faces off with Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson. If this matchup happened a few years ago, it would be fought in the classic "striker versus grappler" format with Thompson as a much better fighter on the feet while Woodley possesses some of the best takedowns in the entire sport.

These days, Woodley packs a serious punch - possibly some of the most devastating power on the entire UFC roster - while Thompson has vastly improved his ground game and takedown defense.

Woodley has to know that he needs a fast start to try and overwhelm Thompson while he still has a few butterflies bouncing around his stomach as part of his first title fight in the UFC. Woodley comes charging out of the gate in nearly all of his fights and if he can put the pressure on Thompson early, there's a chance this one doesn't make it out of the first round. With each minute ticking away, however, the odds start to shift more and more into Thompson's favor.

Of course, Thompson has to be aware that Woodley's wrestling is world class and he could look to ground the prolific striker right away and keep him buried on the mat for the first round or two just to prove a point. That being said, Thompson has defended over 81 percent of takedowns attempted against him and he's a marvel on the feet when it comes to movement and avoiding damage. Add to that, Thompson will have a slight height and reach advantage and he's a master of keeping his opponents away without ever letting them get close enough to land with any significant damage.

Look for Thompson to weather an early storm before picking Woodley apart with surgical precision as the second round fades into the third. Once Thompson has Woodley hurt, he will absolutely go for the kill and New York could be treated to a new welterweight champion being crowned.


Prediction: Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson by TKO, Round 3



Chris Weidman (-165 favorite) vs. Yoel Romero (+145 underdog)

Former middleweight champion Chris Weidman will look to make his hometown proud while also trying to earn another shot at the belt when he faces Olympic silver medalist Yoel Romero at UFC 205.

Weidman has proven time and time again that he's an elite 185-pound fighter with incredible wrestling, powerful boxing and a ton of durability that will carry him late into the fight if necessary. Of course, Weidman is shifting to a three-round fight for the first time since 2012 due to his run as champion so there's no doubt he'll be ready for all 15 minutes in this one. Weidman will enjoy a height and reach advantage over Romero and he's definitely the more technically sound fighter, but that still doesn't mean he's guaranteed a victory.

Romero is one of the most explosive and powerful fighters in the middleweight division and he also just so happens to be a world-class wrestler to boot. It's not a guarantee that these two won't grapple, but it's more likely that with both coming from a wrestling background, Weidman and Romero will probably negate each other on the ground and instead turn this into a striking war.

More than anything, Weidman needs to be careful of Romero's creativity and incredible arsenal of strikes. Romero could be standing flat-footed one minute and then launching into a flying knee the next. Don't be surprised if Romero somehow manages to lose two rounds and still comes out to land a jaw dropping knockout in the final five minutes. That being said, Weidman knows how important this moment is to his career, especially after battling for so long to get MMA legalized in New York. He's left nothing to chance and with the addition of boxing coach Mark Henry to his team, Weidman has the skills to pepper and punish Romero for all three rounds until he earns the victory.


Prediction: Chris Weidman by unanimous decision



KNOCKOUT PICKS

These are the fights that appear to be a little more one-sided, but remember that this is MMA, where anything can - and usually does - happen.


Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-370 favorite) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+310 underdog)

Years before they were in the UFC, Joanna Jedrzejczyk defeated Karolina Kowalkiewicz in an amateur fight in Poland, but now they meet again with much, much higher stakes. Since arriving in the UFC, Kowalkiewicz has proven to be a very tough competitor who only seems to get better as the fight wears on. She lands with great volume and accuracy and only gets stronger with each passing minute.

Unfortunately, all the things Kowalkiewicz seems to do well, Jedrzejczyk does better.

The current strawweight champion has been nothing short of unstoppable since arriving in the promotion and it's hard to imagine she loses her title at UFC 205 either. Jedrzejczyk is an incredibly accurate striker with 48 percent of her shots landing, and she throws with insane volume, hitting more than six significant strikes per minute. Add to that, Jedrzejczyk has 67 percent defense - a whopping 10 points higher than her opponent - so not only is she devastating with her offense, but the champion is nearly impossible to hit in return.

In the end, Jedrzejczyk is just the better overall fighter, and her ability to pour on the punishment round after round after round will eventually force Kowalkiewicz into making a mistake and that will ultimately lead to the end of the fight.


Prediction: Joanna Jedrzejczyk by TKO, Round 4



Frankie Edgar (-335 favorite) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+275 underdog)

Frankie Edgar will look to bounce back from a disappointing loss to Jose Aldo while facing off with arguably one of the hardest hitting fighters in the featherweight division, as Jeremy Stephens tries to get the biggest win of his career at 145 pounds.

Stephens has plenty of power to stop this fight on the feet, and with 16 career finishes by knockout or TKO, there's no doubt that he could find a shot that would put Frankie Edgar away.

Still, Edgar has the kind of technical prowess that could give Stephens fits in this matchup. Edgar is not only quick on his feet, with very sound boxing that includes a stiff jab and lightning quick combinations, he also possesses the ultimate equalizer that could give Stephens nightmares by the time the horn sounds for the end of the first round. Edgar has some of the best wrestling at 145 pounds and it probably won't take long for him to find an opening to get inside, grab on to Stephens' legs and plant him on the mat.

From there, it's all Edgar as he'll punish Stephens on the mat and there's a good chance he'll do this long enough to either get a TKO finish or just bludgeon him until 15 minutes have expired.


Prediction: Frankie Edgar by unanimous decision




UPSET SPECIAL

Raquel Pennington (+160 underdog) vs. Miesha Tate (-185 favorite)

Make no mistake about this one - Miesha Tate can absolutely dominate this fight from start to finish because she's just that good. Tate has shown massive improvements in her striking, where she's not only landing with accuracy these days, but she has knockout power as well. Of course, Tate always had a world-class ground game that combines her wealth of wrestling knowledge with a nasty submission arsenal that's nearly unmatched in the women's bantamweight division.

Still, Raquel Pennington has proven time and time again that she can't be counted out of any fight. Pennington never seems to win pretty, but the ability to drag her opponents down into the mud and make things ugly is just the way she likes it. Don't forget, Pennington took former champion Holly Holm to a very close split decision in her UFC debut and she avenged her only other loss in the UFC when she choked out Jessica Andrade three fights ago.

Pennington is a durable, tough as nails competitor who doesn't excel in any one area, but instead harnesses the ability to hang with anybody on the feet or on the ground and rarely gets overwhelmed by anybody. All those factors add up to Pennington giving Tate an impossibly tough fight and, when it's over, the judges could opt for a decision in her favor. It would certainly be a huge upset, but Pennington has the ability to pull it off and that's why she's worth the risk for fantasy points in a card that features almost exclusively ultra close matchups.


Prediction: Raquel Pennington by split decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Fight Pass Parlay for UFC 205
from MMA Odds Breaker



Lightweight bout: Thiago “Pitbull” Alves (-160) vs Jim Miller (+140)

Gabe’s Thoughts: Alves is finally set to make his debut in the UFC’s lightweight division after competing his entire UFC career at welterweight. I think this is a good matchup for him and see him getting his hand raised in his lightweight debut. He has a big advantage on the feet, and I think he will find success in defending Miller’s takedown attempts and keeping the fight there. On the feet, I think the Brazilian stands a very good chance of stopping the New Jersey native with strikes, but should he fail to find the fight-ending finish, I think he will have done enough to convincingly earn a unanimous decision win on the judges’ scorecards following three rounds of action.


Gabe’s Call: Alves by T/KO (body-kick and punches, 2:13 round 1)



Middleweight bout: Rafael “Sapo” Natal (-155) vs Tim Boetsch (+135)

Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a rare “winner vs. loser” matchup in the UFC’s middleweight division, with Boetsch coming off a second-round TKO win over the recently deceased Josh Samman, and Natal suffering a unanimous-decision loss to Robert Whitaker in his last fight. Natal will have the home advantage, as New York City is his adopted hometown. I believe he is the superior striker heading into this contest and see him keeping this fight at range and out-striking Boetsch. I think he has a decent chance of finishing the fight, but I believe a victory on the judges’ scorecards after three rounds of action is more likely. On top of having the edge in striking, I would also give him the edge in grappling. He has solid wrestling and while Boetsch’s wrestling is better, Natal’s superior Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu makes the difference.


Gabe’s Call: “Sapo” by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)



Gabe’s Recommended Parlay: Alves (-160) and Natal (-155) at +167 for 3.5u to win 5.85u

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 205 Play: Miesha Tate (-185) vs Raquel Pennington (+160)
from MMA Odds Breaker



Miesha “Cupcake” Tate (18-6 MMA, 5-3 UFC)

is coming off a first-round submission loss to Amanda Nunes at UFC 200, where she lost her UFC Women’s Bantamweight title. She will be looking to get back into the win column by defeating a fighter she has previously coached in Pennington. Tate is a talented wrestler who works solid takedowns, as her former nickname “Takedown” would suggest. She owns two ‘Female Fighter of the Year’ awards and two ‘Submission of the Year’ awards. Tate is a talented submission artist who has earned seven of her 18 professional mixed martial arts victories by way of tapout. To compliment her excellent offensive submission game is her solid submission defense. However, her takedown defense is not as good, although she has made improvements in the department. “Cupcake” is not a world beater on the feet either, though she has made improvements in that department as well. Tate has a nice jab and likes to follow it with an uppercut, but she also likes to lead with her uppercut. On the feet, she favors body shots and throws some decent kicks too, including a switch kick and a front kick. She also likes to employ her knees and elbows, especially when up against the cage. In addition, “Cupcake” has made improvements in the cardio department, and it’s now safe to say that she is a well-conditioned athlete. I believe she will have enough in the tank for a full 15 minutes of action against Pennington, should the fight reach the judges’ scorecards for a decision.



Raquel “Rocky” Pennington (8-5 MMA, 5-2 UFC)

is coming off a unanimous-decision win over Elizabeth Phillips at UFC 202 just over two months ago and currently enjoys a three-fight winning streak heading into this contest, where she will look to make it four straight by defeating her former coach on The Ultimate Fighter reality television series. The 28-year-old has solid wrestling skills. She is very strong and good at taking her opponents down once she gets ahold of them, though she is not always quite as effective at keeping them down there and doing damage. Pennington fights well on her feet, as she possesses real power in her hands. Her boxing is good and improving. She is also generally a well-conditioned fighter, so I expect her to have her gas tank prepared for a full three rounds of action, if necessary.


Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this is a close fight, and I believe Pennington has the tools to defeat Tate. Contrary to the betting line, I think Pennington should be a slight -130 betting favorite heading into this contest, so I favor her for a value play at her current offering underdog price of +160.


Gabe’s Call: Pennington by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)


Gabe’s Recommended Play: Rocky (+160) 2u to win 3.2u

 

[NewYorkKnight]

The Big Breakdown: Eddie Alvarez vs. Conor McGregor
from Sean Sheehan - Severe MMA



History

For Alvarez the road to UFC gold was paved all around the world over a thirteen year period as a professional. Fights in Japan, Russia and Costa Rica were a trademark of his early career before he settled in Bellator in 2009. There, he became a two time champion and cemented his place as a top lightweight over five up-and-down years of success inside the cage mixed with contract disputes outside of it. When he was finally released and subsequently added to the UFC roster Alvarez started badly – losing to Donald Cerrone in his Octagon debut – before going on a three fight winning streak to claim the title against Rafael Dos Anjos in July.

McGregor on the other hand, had a much more normal path to the UFC for a top prospect. After two losses in his first six fights the Dubliner hit his stride around 2011 as he went on a run of eight consecutive finishes which ended in him getting signed by the UFC as a two-weight Cage Warriors champion. It was around then that McGregor’s road stopped being normal. In just over a year he was 3-0 inside the Octagon, had come through a torn ACL and was already an arena-packing, headlining act. Wins over Dennis Siver and Dustin Poirier followed soon after before victories over Chad Mendes and Jose Aldo saw him pick up the interim and unified featherweight straps respectively. Now at lightweight – after a loss and a win at welterweight against Nate Diaz – McGregor is attempting to become the first ever concurrent two-weight UFC champion.



Fighting Style

To do that he’ll have to get through one of the toughest fighters in MMA today. In those years as the self-proclaimed ‘Underground King’ Alvarez developed a hard-nosed game that is difficult for anyone to deal with. He mixes pressure grappling with an opportunistic, back-foot striking style while also having the ability to get going in a war if he is dragged there.

Once a fighter who was willing to accept that battle, Alvarez is now more nuanced as an MMA practitioner. More and more over the years the clinch has become part of his game. Especially against certain styles of opponents. He uses it out on its own regularly but most of his cage grappling comes from big double leg takedown attempts which are well defended.

Once he has you against the fence he immediately goes to work and grinds you into oblivion. While all the time mixing it up, when he has to, with knees and nasty dirty boxing. Alvarez likes to get the takedown against the cage also but he’s not inclined to lose heart in any way if he can’t.

When it breaks from there, Alvarez is difficult to deal with in other areas too. Firstly, his blast double as previously mentioned is a good weapon which allows him to showcase an effective top game. And although he takes more shots than he would probably like it’s also never easy taking part in a fist fight with Eddie Alvarez. The left hook and counter right hand are always the big ending shots but that’s not all he has. In fact, when he throws them alone it’s often detrimental to his game. When at his best, Alvarez will throw vicious kicks to set out his stall and ratchet titanic combinations when his opponent gives him a hint of an opening. Like we saw against Rafael Dos Anjos, a hint is all he needs.

With 17 of his 20 wins coming by knockout, the same could undoubtedly be said about Conor McGregor. Like Alvarez though, McGregor’s game has vastly changed down through the years. So much so that it’s hard to know what to expect from him now.

And although I used the word changed for McGregor’s game, that might be giving the wrong impression a little bit. What has happened, rather than a complete change, is the addition of extra armory. When he signed for the UFC McGregor was a very well-tutored fighter with plenty of skills in his pocket but he didn’t really need to use them all because of the blue screen his left hand could inflict on an opponent’s CPU.

But after his ACL surgery McGregor became more of a cerebral fighter having taken time to study the game at arm’s length. He went from someone who had most success countering to someone with unbelievable cage-cutting ability and pressure striking. Then, oddly enough, that was followed by a 13 second KO of one of the best fighters of all time with a counter left hook. That showed he is willing to fight with all of his new tricks while still being able to reach back into his older repertoire when needs be. That is something he will probably need to do again this time after the Diaz bouts at welterweight forced him – well, the second time anyway – to take a more tactile, precise approach using his hands for the most part.

So when looking at McGregor’s game you have to be prepared for anything. He could counter and knock you out cold. He could back you against the fence and tee off at will while dazzling you will his brilliant kicks, long jab and straight left. He could meet you in the pocket and trade hands. Or he could do all of the above. You just never know. Even against Max Holloway and Ivan Buchinger in his last lightweight fight McGregor threw in takedowns for good measure. Although he’s more concerned with those on defense than offense this time around.



Tactical Analysis

Although Alvarez is a very competent and confident striker you would have to think – especially after seeing his fight with Anthony Pettis – that he will want to grapple with McGregor. As detailed above, the clinch – like against Pettis – will be a huge weapon for Alvarez early. And not only will he use it in an attempt to dominate the location of the fight, he’ll also see it as an opportunity to tire out McGregor who is seen by many – rightly or wrongly – as someone whose gas tank can run out early if taken to the right places.

If the clinch does come about it will be bad for McGregor and you would have to give Alvarez the advantage. But that doesn’t mean it’ll be a cakewalk. In the past, McGregor has shown he is no mug with his back against the cage. He is very good at stopping takedowns from there, can often get the underhook he needs to escape and even has a knockout with elbows from the clinch against Steve O’Keefe back in his Cage Warriors days. Alvarez though, is probably the best he has ever faced at that aspect of the game. He will want to get his head on McGregor’s chin and keep it there for as long as he can. The battle will be huge there and could be a major factor in this one.

Then, if you look at how McGregor would want the fight to play out, you’re looking at a completely different scenario. Despite the fact that he’s pretty hard to chain down into a set game, one thing is always a constant for McGregor and that’s him testing chins early.

Logically you would think that McGregor’s game here would be one of careful pressure. Push Alvarez onto the back-foot while being cognizant of his blast double leg and his big counter shots. Use footwork to get him backed against the cage and whip in hard kicks and long punches to keep him there. If he gets into that position Alvarez will have two ways out. 1. With his hands, head and heart. 2. On a stretcher. If the past is anything to go by, option 1 is more likely when it comes to Alvarez but option 2 is hard to avoid when it comes to McGregor.

If that position does occur – where McGregor is pressuring and Alvarez is trying to escape – we have one of two of the most fight-altering positions where this fight can go. [With the second being Alvarez clinching McGregor against the fence.] On one side you have the danger of McGregor’s attack coupled with his swift countering. While on the other side you have a man who just won the lightweight championship of the world with a ferocious counter shot from that position.

That is beyond exciting just to think about.



Prediction

What’s a little less exciting here is giving my pick. Always, when two of the best fighters in the world meet, it’s a tough job to pick a winner. But personally I only see this one going one way – and that’s to McGregor. And my reasoning for it is simple. In fact, I can boil it down to one word. Speed.

There are two ways Eddie Alvarez can win this fight and they are by clinching and, separately, countering off the cage.

To clinch McGregor he’ll first have to stop him coming forward. Then he’ll have to stop him going sideways. Then he’ll have to push him backwards. Now if he had better footwork and was faster he could do that consistently – but I don’t think he has. And even if he does get that clinch, he’ll need to do it over and over again with extreme dominance for five rounds because finishing McGregor from there is going to be very hard.

That leaves him striking off the cage with big shots to get the finish, or at least to get range back, as his option. That, again, is a huge factor considering his skillset and previous success. But to do that he will need to not only time McGregor perfectly, but also beat him for speed. I’d call that possible, but not probable against a rapid striker with excellent technique.

If Alvarez can do neither of those things either regularly, or with a fight ending impact, this is McGregor’s fight for the taking.

For me, McGregor’s ability to cut off the cage will be how he tees up the winning of this fight. Set the pace, get Alvarez backing up, use his speed, kick hard and land the right-left over and over.

Alvarez will be by no means an easy out – and if he can get through the storm early his chances will improve when McGregor naturally slows. But due to the sheer force behind McGregor’s shots – coupled with his accuracy and Alvarez’s tendency to get hit – it’s hard to see this one going the distance.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 205 predictions: FOX Sports 1 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 2
from Patrick L. Stumberg - MMA Mania




145 lbs.: Frankie Edgar (20-5-1) vs. Jeremy Stephens (25-12)

"The Answer" bounced back from his loss to Jose Aldo by scoring five consecutive wins, including a one-punch knockout of Chad Mendes. This set up an interim title bout with the aforementioned Aldo, who jabbed and countered his way to a unanimous decision at UFC 200. At 5’6", he is three inches shorter than Stephens.

A knockout loss to Yves Edwards, the first such defeat of Stephens’ career, sent him down to featherweight, where he’s gone 5-3. In his last fight, he upset former bantamweight champion Renan Barao in a Fight of the Night-winning performance at Fight Night 88. He has knocked out sixteen opponents overall.

Stephens is in an odd spot where he still clearly hits crazy hard, but hasn’t knocked anyone out with punches since starching Marcus Davis in 2011. The only two stoppages he’s picked up since came via head kick and flying knee, neither of which is likely to land on Edgar.

Without assurance that what few punches he lands on Edgar will be killshots, it’s hard to pick him.

Edgar is almost going to out-land and out-wrestle Stephens and his composure under fire precludes the sort of wild exchanges "Lil’ Heathen" used to pull ahead against Barao. Edgar picks him apart with his customary in-and-out stylings for the decision.


Prediction: Edgar by unanimous decision



155 lbs.: Khabib Nurmagomedov (23-0) vs. Michael Johnson (17-10)

Nurmagomedov opened his 2014 campaign with a career-best win over Rafael Dos Anjos, only to suffer repeated injuries that derailed his momentum. He returned two years later against late replacement Darrell Horcher, whom he destroyed en route to a second-round TKO. He’s 7-0 overall in the UFC, including three stoppages.

"The Menace" saw his unexpected rise through the lightweight ranks hampered by a questionable loss to Beneil Dariush, followed by a much-less-questionable loss to Nate Diaz afterwards. In September, he righted the ship with a brutal knockout of Dustin Poirier in the main event of UFC Fight Night 94. He’s knocked out eight opponents overall.

While his hands have drawn the most attention, Johnson’s takedown defense has been the key to his resurgence. He went from being manhandled by Myles Jury and Reza Madadi to turning aside the likes of Gleison Tibau and Beneil Dariush.

That said, it’s hard to forget that he was an absolute dead fish off of his back last we saw, getting hammered into the dirt every time someone put him there. Nurmagomedov is very, very good at putting people there.

I’m simply not convinced that Johnson can stay on his feet for any length of time. Khabib does the Khabib thing, tossing Johnson around before ultimately pounding him out late.


Prediction: Nurmagomedov by third-round TKO



185 lbs.: Tim Boetsch (19-10) vs. Rafael Natal (21-7-1)

"The Barbarian" stepped into the cage against Josh Samman on the heels of three consecutive losses, all by stoppage and two by knockout. As he is wont to do, Boetsch delivered with his back against the wall and pounded Samman out late in the second round. He’s knocked out nine opponents overall.

"Sapo" came back from his decision loss to Ed Herman with four straight wins, including an upset of Uriah Hall at UFC 187. He then took on the rising Robert Whittaker at UFC 197 and dropped a decision to the Aussie striker. He’s submitted eight opponents and knocked out another four.

We all love Tim Boetsch, but before the Samman fight, he’d lost six of his previous eight and really didn’t deserve the win against C.B. Dollaway in that stretch. Natal, meanwhile, has chugged along with four wins in his last five and has the cardio and kicking prowess to stay away from Boetsch’s sledgehammers.

Boetsch can win with consistent takedowns and ground-and-pound, but Natal’s counter-wrestling is solid and his jiu-jitsu experience could give "The Barbarian" pause.

At the very least, I’ll be rooting for Boetsch with all the rest of you while Natal picks him apart with leg kicks on his way to a decision win.


Prediction: Natal by unanimous decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 205 Cheat Sheet: Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz




Jedrzejczyk: 12-0 record (6-0 UFC); fourth defense of UFC women's strawweight title

Jedrzejczyk: Outlanded opponents 575-195 in significant strikes in UFC title fights

Kowalkiewicz: 10-0 record (3-0 UFC); past five wins have come by decision

Kowalkiewicz: +95 significant strike defense in UFC fights



Breakdown

Declaring a champion "unbeatable" in this sport is very, very foolish -- but I'm gonna do it anyway. Jedrzejczyk is currently unbeatable at 115 pounds.

Kowalkiewicz deserves all the credit in the world for upsetting Namajunas in June. But that fight seemed to further illustrate the gap between Jedrzejczyk and her opposition -- not suggest Kowalkiewicz had closed it.

Jedrzejczyk continues to drop less-than subtle hints that she might look to take this fight to the ground. She has repeatedly mentioned fans seeing a "new Joanna" in this bout. The fact remains that "old Joanna" should be more than enough to record her fourth defense. Kowalkiewicz can be very, very efficient with her knees in the clinch, which could zap the energy of a Jedrzejczyk (who cuts a good amount of weight to fight at 115), but Jedrzejczyk's offensive firepower still wins out.


Prediction: Jedrzejczyk by decision.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 205 Betting: The Notorious to put on a show to remember at The Garden
from betfair



It's been a long time coming but finally, this Saturday night, Mixed Martial Arts makes it's long awaited debut in New York, where Madison Square Garden will play host to one of the most stacked UFC cards in recent history.

The "fastest growing sport in the world" has long been forced to elude the Big Apple due to it being illegal up until late this year, but what better way to announce itself than by having the biggest draw in the industry and a card featuring no fewer than three championship bouts.

That's right folks, Conor McGregor is back, and he's seeking to do what no man has successfully completed in the UFC before, become a two weight world champion while holding both belts simultaneously.

His opponent? Newly crowned Lightweight champion, Eddie Alvarez, who shocked many with his first round KO of Rafael Dos Anjos last time out. What we have here is a Lightweight title fight, where should McGregor win, he will own both the lightweight belt, and the featherweight belt (something he actually achieved in his pre-UFC career at UK-based MMA promotion Cage Warriors).

I've been studying this fight from the moment it was announced and it really should be a crowd pleaser for a number of reasons. In McGregor, we have a technically sound, elusive striker, who possesses deadly knockout power as shown in various highlight reel finishes from his stint in the Featherweight division.

Although his power may not seem to be as effective in this higher weight division, a lot of credit should be owed to Nate Diaz, who happens to have one of the best chins in MMA, therefore it would be foolish to underestimate Conor's power solely based on his lightweight debut.

On the other side of the octagon we have a totally contrasting fighter in Alvarez. He's very much a jack of all trades, but in my opinion, a master in no one area. He has decent hands, solid wrestling, and he certainly isn't a fish on the ground (he is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu). He often likes to hold his opponents on the fence and really wear them down with his constant pressure and dirty boxing.

On paper this should be quite a difficult match up for McGregor, because in theory Alvarez could make this fight ugly and really grind out a decision. However, the one loophole I have that I simply can't get away from is that Alvarez is extremely hittable, and if you study tape on his last three, five, or even his early Bellator fights, he gets rocked. A lot.


Granted, he always seem to recover very quickly, but you have to think that sooner or later it is going to take its toll. This, along with the fact that The Notorious looks to have the mental edge going into fight week, is why I'm backing McGregor to win via KO/TKO in Round 2 (which is available at a generous 7/1 on the Sportsbook).

I'm going to give Alvarez the benefit of the doubt and assume he gets through the first round, but I feel as they go into the second round and both fighters loosen up, McGregor will find his range and clip him resulting in lights out for Alvarez. Sound the alarms, ladies and gentlemen, we may be looking at a new two-weight world champion.



Recommended Bet

Back Conor McGregor to win via KO/TKO in Round 2 at 7/1

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson: The Complete Breakdown at UFC 205
from Patrick Wyman - Bleacher Report



Tyron Woodley

Record: 16-3 (6 KO, 5 SUB, 5 DEC)

Height: 5'9"

Reach: 74"

Woodley is a marvel of athleticism, speed and power. The two-time All-American wrestler from the University of Missouri has built his game around his physical gifts, and the result is an efficient, stripped-down approach to fighting.

The right hand is Woodley's bread and butter, and everything he does on his feet is designed to enable him to land it.

He probes with his lead hand, rarely throwing an actual jab and usually pumping it to measure the distance. This also serves to accustom Woodley's opponent to a particular speed and rhythm. When he explodes forward into a fully committed right hand, the speed and power are shocking and unexpected.

A potent right kick serves a few different purposes for Woodley. He's adept at moving it between the legs, body and head, and he uses it in crafty ways to manipulate his opponent's hand positioning. If the opponent responds to a hard body kick by dropping his hand, Woodley shoots an overhand or straight right into the gap. Woodley also likes to move from kicks to punches, firing off a hard right immediately after a kick.

Nobody will confuse him with Anderson Silva or Conor McGregor in terms of depth of skill, but Woodley is a decent counterpuncher with excellent timing and speed. In terms of his overall development as a fighter, he'd be well-served to keep working on this facet of his game, because he has real gifts.

It's easy to look at Woodley and see nothing but the right hand and the power and speed with which he delivers it, but his craft shouldn't be underestimated.

Woodley hasn't forgotten his roots as a wrestler. The former All-American is a grinder of a clinch fighter who uses his squat, powerful frame to pin his opponent in the fence with a mixture of raw strength and excellent technique. While not particularly dangerous on the inside, Woodley isn't easy to escape and excels at wearing his opponent down.

He's not an active takedown artist, but Woodley hasn't forgotten how to shoot a beautiful, explosive and well-timed double. His chains against the fence, moving from singles to doubles to trips, are technical and finished with authority. Defensively, he's almost impossible to take down unless he's exhausted.

With that said, Woodley has some real drawbacks. The first is ringcraft. While the specifics of Woodley's footwork aren't bad—he takes short steps and has a knack for finding angles—he tends to lose track of the big picture of where he is in the cage. It's not hard to back him up to the fence, and he doesn't show much urgency in getting back to open space.

The second major issue with Woodley's game is pace. Every shot he throws can finish the fight, but that's exactly the problem: It takes a tremendous amount of energy to explode the way he does, which makes it difficult for him to score enough points to win rounds if he can't get the finish.

Moreover, he seems to slow badly even over the course of a three-round fight, and we have yet to see him go for 25 minutes.




Stephen Thompson

Record: 13-1 (7 KO, 1 SUB, 5 DEC)

Height: 6'0"

Reach: 75"

Thompson has spent his entire life competing in karate, kickboxing and now MMA, and he has built his unique approach to fighting on the basis of that exceptional depth of experience.

Creating and managing distance is the cornerstone of Thompson's game. Already tall for the division at 6'0", Thompson fights even longer than his height would suggest by consistently switching stances and taking a wide base that keeps his head far away from his opponent.

An array of kicks and a busy lead hand keep his opponent outside. Thompson moves seamlessly between side, front and round kicks that are deceptive and difficult to predict, and if his opponent focuses too much on the kicks, he places a hard, consistent jab in his face. That lead hand is constantly probing and measuring, and it helps to set the kind of bouncy rhythm that makes Thompson so hard to figure out.

Precise, technical footwork and efficient movement likewise help to maintain distance. Thompson rarely moves in straight lines and constantly cuts angles with pivots and sidesteps to avoid being pinned against the fence or forced into a range with which he isn't comfortable.

It's hard to overstate how good Thompson's command of the range is. He has an otherworldly sense for where he is relative to his opponent, how much time that amount of space gives him to react and what his various options are.

Once he has established his preferred range, Thompson goes to work. Having space to play gives Thompson two basic options: blitzing forward with combinations or timing vicious counterpunches as his opponent is forced to lunge in to cover the distance.

A blitzing Thompson is effective, stringing together sequences of straight punches behind which he hides sneaky head kicks. His use of angles on these blitzes is impressive, cutting a bewildering array of approaches on lines relative to the plane of his opponent's body.

Thompson is much more dangerous as a counterpuncher, though. His command of angles here is even more important, as it allows him to land strikes that opponents can't see coming.

The karate master has a particular knack for landing from the inside angle, the same punch that McGregor has popularized. Standing in the opposite stance to his opponent when he tries to charge in, Thompson steps diagonally back and to the outside and pivots as he throws the straight left hand. This allows it to land perpendicular to the plane of his opponent's body, where it lands with the greatest possible force.

Strikes like this are the best piece of Thompson's game, and he has a deep well of options available when opponents try to pressure him. If he's feeling especially confident, he's willing to exchange punches in the pocket, something that's rare with most karate-based fighters.

In addition to all of his technical skill, Thompson pushes an outstanding pace. He never forces the finish and is happy to pepper his opponent with enough strikes to score and win rounds.

None of that striking wizardry would matter if Thompson couldn't keep the fight standing. Years of training with Chris Weidman and other elite wrestlers have given him exceptional technical skills as a defensive wrestler, and his command of distance and angles makes it difficult to get a clean shot at his hips in the first place. He can hit the occasional takedown of his own for the sake of variety as well.

It's difficult to hold Thompson in the clinch if he doesn't want to be there, and his long frame gives him surprising leverage on the inside. He's scrappy in the clinch, too, and throws hard knees and punches on the exits.

There are some weaknesses to Thompson's game, though. Defense isn't his strongest suit. Thompson relies heavily on distance and angles to avoid his opponent's strikes, and he's rarely there to be hit. When he is forced into range, though, Thompson isn't hard to hit. He doesn't have great head movement and sometimes backs away with his chin in the air.

In practical terms, this means that an opponent who succeeds in pinning Thompson in boxing range or against the fence can do real damage. This is easier said than done, obviously.

That's about all we've seen in terms of potential problems with Thompson's game at this point.



Prediction

This is a tough matchup for Woodley in his first title defense: a crisp, active striker who controls the distance, works at a quick pace and is difficult to hold in the clinch or on the ground.

Woodley does have a path to victory. Thompson can be hit, especially early in the fight as he's still trying to gauge the range and his opponent's speed and timing, and few fighters are better equipped to exploit that brief period of adjustment than someone as fast and powerful as Woodley.

For the same reason, it's not especially hard to grab ahold of Thompson early in the fight, and Woodley will look to grind on him in the clinch and with takedowns.

The longer the fight goes, however, the better things look for Thompson. He works at a drastically quicker pace, targets the legs and the body to wear his opponent down, and sets such a long range that Woodley will have to expend even more energy than normal just to cover the gap.

Add to that the fact that Woodley isn't particularly skilled at ringcraft, and it's likely that the champion will be spending most of the fight where Thompson wants it, in the middle of the cage.

The most likely outcome, then, involves Thompson eating a few scary shots early and having to work through Woodley's takedown attempts and grinding against the fence before breaking out into open space and steadily upping the volume as Woodley slows. Eventually, Woodley will run into a big series of counters.



The pick is Thompson by knockout in the third round.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Predictions for UFC 205
from The MMA Way



Mark's Picks

McGregor TKO Round 2
Thompson TKO Round 2
Jedrzejczyk TKO Round 3
Romero DEC
Cerrone DEC
Pennington DEC
Stephens TKO Round 2
Nurmagomedov DEC
Boetsch DEC
Miller DEC
Luque DEC
Carmouche DEC



James' Picks

McGregor TKO Round 2
Thompson TKO Round 3
Jedrzejczyk DEC
Weidman DEC
Cerrone DEC
Tate DEC
Edgar DEC
Nurmagomedov SUB Round 2
Boetsch TKO Round 3
Miller DEC
Muhammad DEC
Chookagian TKO Round 3