UFC 199 Preliminary Predictions
from Kamikaze Overdrive
145lbs- #12 Brian Ortega (10-0-0) vs Clay Guida (32-13-0)
Headlining the Undercard is a Featherweight bout featuring former Lightweight contender Clay ‘The Carpenter’ Guida taking on undefeated Brian ‘T-City’ Ortega. Guida is coming off a submission loss to Thiago Tavares and has alternated wins and losses over his last 7 bouts. Oretga’s debut win was ruled a No Contest after he failed his drug test, he has since scored a TKO win over Thiago Tavares and a submission victory over Diego Brandao.
Guida is 10 years older than Ortega and has a sizeable experience advantage with 37 more pro bouts. Ortega is 1″ taller, but will give up 1″ of reach.
At this point in his career, the book on Guida is pretty straight forward. He relies heavily on his takedowns, grinding top game, and cardio to win fights. His striking is centered around closing the distance to set up his shot and he utilizes a lot of movement to frustrate his opponent into making mistakes. Earlier in his career, he was an incredibly durable fighter with sound submission defense- that isn’t the case anymore. Clay’s last 3 losses have all come inside the distance and he has been submitted 9 times over his career. Of those 9 subs, 7 came via some form of choke. Guida’s aggressive style has given way to a much more conservative and equally as frustrating approach. He has found success grinding out top position wins against sound grapplers, like Hatsu Hioki. Conversely, against Tavares, Guida got tapped almost immediately after shooting for his first takedown attempt.
Guida landed 20 takedowns over his last 5 wins, compared to only 3 in his last 5 defeats.
Ortega has impressed in his UFC run, stopping a pair of talented UFC vets in his last 2 fights- both in the 3rd round. ‘T-City’ is a BJJ Black belt, with 5 wins by submission, 4 by decision, and his only knockout win coming against the aforementioned Tavares. Ortega has given up 8 takedowns in his 2 UFC wins which has played a big role in his success. Ortega has a very aggressive guard, attacking with submissions and looking for counters as soon as he hits the mat. Against Tavares, he attempted an arm triangle almost immediately after the Brazilian shot. He offered a similar attack against Brandao, showcasing the dexterity in his hips. Look for Brian to use strikes, especially elbows, off his back to create space to attack with subs. The Brandao finish came in the third round when Ortega attacked his neck while standing and then rolled to a triangle once Brandao attempted to finish.
Ortega has improved his striking significantly. He doesn’t have big power, but he throws a nice left jab/ straight right combo and will mix in kicks, spinning attacks, and other higher risk maneuvers.
This fight will most likely play out in 1 of 2 scenarios. Either Guida scores his takedowns and grinds his way to a decision or Ortega catches him in a submission. There is a 3rd possible scenario that could be a combination of the 2; with Guida landing takedowns, but Ortega outworking him off his back with strikes and sub attempts to earn an unconventional decision win. When Clay shoots for takedowns he usually leaves his neck exposed as he drives forward- Tavares capitalized on this opening. If Clay doesn’t score on his initial shot, he will continue driving forward, but in doing so his head/neck are left defenseless. Ortega only needs 1 opportunity to make it count. Ortega’s striking is improving which will keep Clay from getting comfortable on the feet and once he shoots Ortega will go to work
my prediction is Brian Ortega to defeat Clay Guida by submission.
155lbs- #10 Beneil Dariush (12-2-0) vs James Vick (9-0-0)
In a fight that has been totally overhauled due to injuries, Beneil Dariush takes on James Vick, replacing a fight that was originally scheduled to be contested between Evan Dunham and Leonardo Silva. Dariush is coming off of a loss to Michael Chiesa just a few weeks ago, it ended his 5-fight winning streak. Vick is still undefeated after a dominant decision win at UFC 197- he is 5-0 inside the Octagon.
Vick has had roughly 5-weeks to prep for the bout, and Dariush got the call 4-weeks from fight night. Vick is 5 inches taller and will have a 4″ reach advantage. Dariush is the younger man by 2 years.
Dariush is a BJJ Black belt with 6 wins by sub, but he is coming off his first career submission defeat. Beneil doesn’t have overwhelming takedown numbers with just 1.83 TDs at a 34% completion rate. Conversely, Vick has defended 60% of his opponents’ TDAs, but he has struggled at times to remain vertical. Over his 5-fight UFC run, he has given up 10 completions, including 4 in his last bout. His long limbs make him difficult to control on the mat and he is an adept scrambler when it comes to working his way back to a vertical base. Vick has 4 wins by submission, including back to back guillotines. If Dariush does take him down, he has a suffocating top game and while he will work for a submission he doesn’t do so at the expense of his positional control. Chiesa was able to tap him out after scoring a takedown and jumping to back mount as Beneil attempted to get back to his feet.
Both me have shown sizeable improvements in their striking attacks. Vick demoed a slick boxing game, where he paired his punches together effectively, attacked from different angles and broke his opponent down with his constant ; Beneil continues to show a strong a kicking game. Against Daron Cruickshank he blasted him to the body with several big kicks and he was busting up Chiesa’s lead leg with hard low kicks. Dariush landed several hard rights, working his boxing in combination with his kicks. Vick does have the edge in striking output and is coming off of an impressive 94 strike performance. He stands a little tall when engaging which makes him vulnerable to over-hand strikes and a potential takedown.
Dariush simply failed to recognize the severity of the position he was in against Chiesa until it was too late. Stepping in on short notice for this fight represents his willingness to make amends for his mistake. Vick gives up too many takedowns and against a grappler the caliber of Dariush he can’t afford to rely on his ability to get back to his feet every time. Dariush should have no problem closing the distance and utilizing his low stature to get in on the hips of Vick and take him to the mat. Once on the ground, Darisuh will control the action and prevent him from returning to a vertical base with his heavy top game. When they are on the feet, look for Dariush to attack Vick’s legs, which will serve to take away his movement as the fight advances. Vick’s forward pressure will be stunted by Dariush’s abilty to change levels for takedown attempts. Postional control will be the difference in this fight and Dariush will have the edge in that category
my prediciton is Beneil Darisuh to defeat James Vick by decision
115lbs- #6 Jessica Penne (12-4-0) vs Jessica Andrade (13-5-0)
In the Women’s Strawweight division, recent title challenger Jessica Penne returns to action to take on divisional debutante Jessica Andrade. Penne is coming off her title fight loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, that followed a split decision win over Randa Markos in her UFC debut. Andrade dropped her rematch with Raquel Pennington, but had won 4 of 6 inside the Octagon prior to the defeat.
Despite Andrade cutting down 2 division, Penne is 4 inches taller and will have a 5″ reach advantage. Penne is returning after nearly a year out of action and is 8 years older than her opponent.
On the feet, Andrade is an absolute berserker. She likes to come forward with high volume and heavy leathered barrages consisting mainly of hooks. She will target both the chin and body of her opponent. Pennington found some success utilizing shorter combinations to counter the forward pressure, which is something that Penne should look to employ. Penne tends to be much more calculated with her striking, picking her spots, and attacking with single strikes. She is badly out-gunned by the Brazilian in the volume category, by an average of 2.76 SLpM. The loss to Joanna certainly skews the striking stats, but even against Markos, Penne landed just 39 strikes compared to 55 for the Canadian. Additionally, Penne appeared to struggle at times with the pressure and volume of Markos, covering up and waiting for the onslaught to subside.
On the mat, Penne is a BJJ Black belt with 7 of her 12 wins coming by sub- 4 by RNC. Against Markos, she landed 4 takedowns, but went 0 for 11 in her title fight loss. She is technically sound on the floor, capable of sweeps and scrambling to a superior position. Similar to her stand-up, Andrade is very aggressive on the ground. Look for her to use a single leg slam to power her opponent to the floor, usually shooting after forcing the action up against cage. She does have a tendency to sit a little low her in foe’s guard which can create openings for potential submission attacks. Andrade has been subbed twice and was TKOed on the mat by Liz Carmouche. Her signature submission is the guillotine which has accounted for 5 of her victories.
Penne is coming off of a title fight loss, which isn’t easy- especially considering how one-sided the fight was. The layoff could also create issues early against a fast-starting opponent. Andrade is making her divisional debut and cutting down 20 pounds to do so. If the weight cut goes well, look for Andrade to be a force at 115 pounds. She is a very physical fighter, who hits hard and looks to overwhelm her opponents with her strength and power- that should be easier against smaller opposition. It was clear that battling with larger opponents took its toll on the Brazilian and wore her out. Additionally, making 115 pounds should help to clean-up some of her conditioning issues. Look for Andrade to find success exchanging with Penne, landing the harder shots and doing so more frequently. She will also find success putting her American counterpart on the mat and keeping her there
my prediction is Jessica Andrade to defeat Jessica Penne by decision.
145lbs- Cole Miller (21-9-0 1NC) vs Alex Caceres (11-8-0 1NC)
In the Featherweight division, 18-UFC fight veteran Cole ‘Magrinho’ Miller takes on Alex ‘Bruce Leeroy’ Caceres in a bout that was originally scheduled to take place between BJ Penn and Dennis Siver. Miller is coming off of a No Contest against Jim Alers- he has won 2 of his last 3 fights. Caceres ended his 3-fight losing skid with a dominant decision win over Masio Fullen.
Miller is 3 inches taller and will have a slight 1″ reach advantage. Caceres, is the younger man by 4 years. Both Miller and Caceres have fought at different weight classes inside the Octagon; Miller last fought at 155 pounds back in 2011 and ‘Bruce Leeroy competed at 135 pounds just over 1 year ago.
Both fighters are talented grapplers; Miller a BJJ Black belt with a perfect 15-0 record in fights ended by submission. Caceres has 5 submission wins, including a pair inside the Octagon. Conversely, ‘Bruce Leeroy’ has struggled when he isn’t able to overwhelm his foe on the mat. He has been subbed 5-times, including 3 losses via RNC in the UFC. Miller has a 4-pack of rear-naked choke wins. Neither man has overwhelming takedown numbers, relying heavily on their adversary to initiate the ground exchanges. Once on the mat, they are both capable scramblers and possess active guards where they will look to work to a superior position.
If their respective grappling games nullify each other, Caceres holds a slight edge in striking volume, while Miller gets the nod in power. Caceres will throw a variety of strikes, mixing in some unorthodox techniques. Miller has been working to improve his distance control, pumping out his jab and utilizing a long straight right hand. While he has just 3 pro wins by knockout, ‘Magrinho’ dropped Sam Sicilia and Ross Pearson prior to tying up the submission.
Caceres has had just over a week to prep for this fight, which doesn’t bode well for him if it turns into a grueling affair. Look for Miller to land the more impactful strikes on the feet and force Caceres into risky takedown attempts. Once the grappling exchanges are initiated, Cole will work himself to the superior position and start chaining submission attempts together. If Miller can’t gain the finish in the opening 2 rounds, he does have a tendency to slow down, but he should be ahead on the scorecards at that point
my prediction is Cole Miller to defeat Alex Caceres by submission.
170lbs- Sean Strickland (17-1-0) vs Tom Breese (10-0-0)
Headlining the Fight Pass preliminary card will be a battle between Welterweight prospects, as Sean ‘Tarzan’ Strickland takes on England’s Tom ‘The Octopus’ Breese. Strickland is 4-1 in the UFC and has won back to back fights over Alex Garcia and Igor Araujo since losing his Welterweight debut. Breese has yet to taste defeat, including a 3-0 start to his Octagon run- he is coming off of the first decision win of his career.
At 6’3″, Breese is 2 inches taller than Strickland, but the American will have a 3″ reach advantage.
‘Tarzan has stopped 8 opponents by knockout, including his third round finish of Alex Garcia. A BJJ Brown belt, he has 4 submission wins- all by RNC. Of his 12 finishes, 9 have come in the opening round. Over his last 2 outings, Strickland has shown a noteworthy uptick in his offensive output with 155 significant strikes landed compared to just 112 in his first 3 UFC fights. He will switch stances and throws a stiff jab, that he dropped Garcia with prior to finishing him. Sean augments his boxing with front and low kicks. At times, his passivity and tall stance can lead to him getting cracked with some big shots, but he has a strong chin. On the mat, Strickland is active with both his top position strikes and guard passing/ submission game. He had a lot of success on the floor against Araujo, and busted up Garcia with hard punches and elbows.
Strickland is good in a scramble and if he gets put on his back, he does a good job of shutting down his opponent’s top game.
Prior to the Keita Nakamura decision, Breese had finished all 9 of his wins- 6 in the first round. He has 6 submission wins on his record, 4 by RNC. He has very fast hands, firing out a strong right jab and sharp straight left. He hurt Pendred with a counter left and put him down with a had front kick to the body. He does a decent job of cutting off the cage and stalking his opponent. He can also be effective from the clinch, delivering hard knees to the body. His grappling can be both a key aspect of his offense or an area of vulnerability. Nakamura had a lot of success taking him down, landing a trio of completions. Breese used a leg lock to threaten and eventually counter to top position, but he exposed his back when doing so. From top position he will unload with hard elbows and solid GNP.
Tom is a Tri-Star product, training alongside Rory MacDonald and Strickland’s most recent opponent; Alex Garcia. There should be some level of familiarity for Breese, considering his camp has prepped for Strickland before.
Both men are multi-faceted and capable of competing on the feet and on the ground. Strickland’s striking output has been on the rise, but he needs to avoid sitting back and allowing his foe to engage first. For Breese, in one of his final pre-UFC bouts he had issues with giving up takedowns. Nakamura was able to expose his TDD as well, but failed to hold the superior position. Look for Strickland to keep the fight close on the feet and then land key takedowns which will both score points and slow down the Brit’s offense. Strickland likes to work from half guard, to better control his opponent and he has a very quick back take if Breese gives up the position
my prediction is Sean Strickland to defeat Tom Breese by submission.
205lbs- Jonathan Wilson (7-0-0) vs Luiz Henrique da Silva (10-0-0)
In the Light Heavyweight division, Jonathan ‘Johnny Bravo’ Wilson makes his second UFC appearance, taking on fellow undefeated fighter Luis Henrique ‘Frankenstein’ Da Silva of Brazil. Wilson stopped Chris Dempsey in just 50 seconds in his debut, his only fight of 2015 after a perfect 4-0 run in 2014. Da Silva scored a TKO win over UFC veteran Ildemar Alcantara in his final pre-UFC bout earlier this year to build on his 4-0 record in 2015.
At 6’3″, Da Silva is 1″ taller than Wilson and 2 years younger.
Both men have impressive finishing rates. Wilson has won by knockout in 6 of his 7 victories compared to just a single decision win. He has finished 5 opponents in the first round, including 4 before the 2-minute mark. Prior to the Dempsey fight, ‘Johnny Bravo’ fought 4-times under the Gladiator Challenge banner against opponents with a combined record of 5-11. He also went 7-0 as an amateur fighter, knocking out 6 of his 7 foes. ‘Frankenstein’ has 10 wins by knockout and a single submission victory which came due to strikes. Da Silva has ended 8 fights in the opening round and never fought past round 2. His win over Alcantara is easily the biggest victory of his career. Prior to the stoppage of Ildemar, his last 4 adversaries have a combined record of 15-13, with 10 wins attributed to just 1 fighter.
Prior to stopping Alcantara, Da Silva was getting boxed up on the feet and taken down at will. He eventually landed a fight changing right hand and scored the stoppage shortly afterward, but he was clearly losing the fight. His cardio also looked less than impressive as he was breathing heavy early in the action. Wilson didn’t get to showcase much in his debut win. He moved fairly well for a big man, and dropped Dempsey with a clean left hand through his guard.
Despite being on the wrong end of the majority of the action against Alcantara, Da Silva showed that he can take a decent shot. Wilson will certainly test that. Wilson should be the more athletic fighter and will have the speed advantage. He tends to throw a lot of single strikes, but pack significant power when he do so. He hasn’t showcased a lot of his wrestling, but with the ease at which Alcantara took Da Silva down, Wilson should be able to do so as well. Once on top, the American can generate a lot of power. Both fighters are you and developing, but Wilson appears to have more upside
my prediction is Jonathan Wilson to defeat Luis Henrique Da Silva by TKO.
185lbs- Elvis Mutapcic (15-4-0) vs Kevin Casey (9-4-0 2NC)
In the Middleweight division, Elvis ‘The King’ Mutapcic takes on fellow royalty ‘King’ Kevin Casey. Casey is coming off of a loss to Rafael Natal, his first official defeat over his last 7-fights. Mutapcic made his promotional debut on short notice at Light Heavyweight and dropped a decision to Francimar Barosso, he had won 2 in a row and is 7-2 over his last 9 fights.
Mutapcic is 1″ taller, but Casey will have a 5″ reach advantage. Elvis is the younger man by 5 years.
On the feet, Mutapcic is a capable striker. He cuts decent angles and mixes up his offense nicely. Against Barroso, he struggled to land strikes with consistency. He has 5 wins by knockout. Casey is far from a technical wizard on the feet, throwing mainly power strikes with the purpose of setting up his clinch and takedown entries. Casey did drop Bubba Bush during an exchange prior to scoring the TKO stoppage on the mat. For Mutapcic to win this fight, he will need to be the more active striker. Mixing up his offense and moving his feet to avoid Casey getting in on his hips.
A BJJ Black belt, Casey has a trio of wins by submission, along with a couple of decision and TKO victories on the mat. He has excellent top control, smothering his opponent and breaking them down with short strikes. His guard passing is sound and he will jump on a submission attempt should he be given the opportunity. ‘King’ Kevin also has a capable guard. He nearly caught Josh Samman with a triangle and was able to counter and put Alcantara on his back despite the Brazilian holding full mount early in that fight. Mutapcic gave up just a single takedown in his debut loss, but he has struggled at time with his opponent’s wrestling. Jesse Taylor had a lot of success grinding him out on the mat at WSOF 7. Once Barosso took him down, Elvis offered very little from his guard. He has 7 wins by sub, but 2 came via strikes.
This bout will almost certainly be won by the fighter that can dictate where the action takes place. Casey will want the majority of the fight to transpire on the mat, while Mutapcic will be focussed on remaining vertical. Elvis’s counter wrestling is a major point of concern. If Casey can establish his takedowns, it will serve to both score points when on the mat and create hesitation in Mutapcic when he does have the chance to strike. Elvis isn’t a high volume striker and is at a deficit in the reach category, so he is going to struggle to keep Casey from pushing forward. Additionally, he doesn’t offer the type of pressure and volume that will test the questionable endurance of Kevin and slow him down in the later rounds. Casey will find success closing the gap and getting in on the hips of Mutapcic. Once on the mat, Casey’s heavy top game will keep Elvis stuck on his back for prolonged durations of the fight. The biggest concern is that Casey will slow down in the second half, leading to a potential stoppage
my prediction is Kevin Casey to defeat Elvis Mutapcic by decision
155lbs- Polo Reyes (6-3-0) vs Dong Hyun Kim (13-7-3)
The opening fight of the night takes place in the Lightweight division as a pair of promotional sophomores meet when Mexico’s Polo ‘El Toro’ Reyes takes on ‘Maestro’ Dong Hyun Kim. Polo defeated fellow TUF Latin American 2 semi-finalist Cesar Arzamendia at UFN 78 in his UFC debut. Kim stepped in on very short notice to face Dominique Steele at Welterweight and suffered just his second loss over his last 9 fights.
Kim is returning to a more appropriate 155 pounds for this bout. He is 4 years younger than his foe, but he has a sizeable experience advantage with 23 pro bouts to just 7 for ‘El Toro’. Both men are 5’11” and Reyes will have a slight 1″ reach advantage.
During his time on the reality show, Reyes scored a 2nd round TKO victory in the elimination portion of the tournament before getting knocked out in the semi-finals. As a pro, he has 4 wins by knockout and 1 by submission. He stopped Arzamendia for just his 2nd opening round finish. Both of his losses came via submission. Kim has a slightly more diversified record- winning 6-times by KO/TKO, along with 5 submission wins and a 2-4 record on the scorecards. He has been submitted twice and Steele was the first to knock him out. ‘Maestro’ has 8 opening round wins.
Both men are willing to stand in the pocket and trade. Reyes does a good job of sitting down on his punches and letting his hands go. At the same time, he pays almost no attention to defense, allowing his opponent to land at will. This resulted in his knockout loss on the show and a couple of other occasions where he was hurt. Kim took a similar approach against Steele, trading heavy leather against the much bigger man. While it was a big slam that was his undoing, Kim showed a decent chin when getting blasted with some big shots. If this degenerates into a slugfest, it could go either way. The difference maker should be the grappling of Kim. He has a pretty decent clinch game, where he will look for bodylock/trip takedowns. Prior to getting the finish in his debut, Reyes was taken down multiple times and struggled to offer much resistance. Look for Kim to jam Reyes’s forward pressure with his clinch attack and routinely drag him to the floor where he will break him down with strikes and/or set up a submission
my prediction is Dong Hyun Kim to defeat Polo Reyes by submission.
