UFC 198 Picks
from Lootmeister
Fabricio Werdum, (-165), 20-5-1 (6 KOs, 10 Submissions) vs. Stipe Miocic, (+145), 14-2 (10 KOs, 1 Submission)
UFC Heavyweight Champion Fabricio Werdum will defend his title against challenger Stipe Miocic in the main event of UFC 198. It is Werdum's first defense after beating Cain Velasquez for the belt in June of last year with a 3rd-round submission win. The Los Angeles-based Brazilian standout returns home to defend his belt and should have his hands full with one of the division's most-interesting X-factors in the 33-year old Miocic.
Werdum, 38, underwent a long voyage to get to this spot. Years of fighting the best and training with the biggest names in the sport has finally led to him getting to the top. He has not lost since 2011 and has 6 straight wins, also beating names like Travis Browne, Mark Hunt, Roy Nelson along the way. In a career that dates back to 2002 he has also beaten Gabriel Gonzaga, Alistair Overeem and Fedor Emilianenko, He has the credentials and at 38, has really managed to put it all together.
When fighting Werdum, Miocic will be taking on one of the sport's true fighters. Werdum has been doing this his whole life, achieving an instinctive understanding of fighting. One would be hard-pressed to find a more-natural fighting product in the heavyweight division than the educated Werdum. He carries a lot of pain, experience, skill, and ability into the octagon. And in a fight, he can do it all. In recent years, we've seen his immensely-effective ground game punctuated by a higher aptitude to strike on his feet, even TKO'ing noted striker Mark Hunt with strikes in a recent win. At an age when a lot of fighters find their overall effectiveness waning, Werdum has managed to make it all come together. He's as good as he's ever been.
Raised by Croatian immigrants in Ohio, Miocic has a nice fighting pedigree himself. A good athlete coming up, Miocic excelled at baseball, boxing, and wrestling. He won a golden gloves title, while also competing in Division I wrestling at Cleveland State. A firefighter, Miocic got into professional MMA in his late-20's, turning pro in 2010. After 6 wins, he was brought into the UFC, where he has since racked up an 8-2 record. After 3 wins in the UFC, a TKO loss to Stefan Struve slowed his progress. He rebounded with three nice wins, getting a big fight with Junior dos Santos, which he lost by decision in the Fight of the Night.
Since losing to JDS in December 2014, Miocic has scored a pair of TKOs over Andrei Arlovski and Mark Hunt and it's fair to say that Miocic is coming together and peaking as a fighter. Those last two fights underline Miocic's potential and ability to win. And he is extremely tough. He packs a lot of power in his fists and has a proper fighter's disposition. Make no mistake—Miocic is a tough night's work for anyone in the heavyweight division.
If forced to take a stand, one could say that Miocic is a good fighter in an all-around way, while lacking that one special dimension that you'd like to see with a prospective heavyweight champion. He's good. He's solid. But does he have the element of being special that can take him from contender to champion? Can he defeat a master of fighting in Werdum and do it on the road in his opponent's home country? Miocic is a hard-working and serious fighter who is utterly committed to his MMA career. He's a man with abundant skills, power, and the requisite hunger to be champion and you can never rule out a man with all those attributes. I'm just in the mind of going with the admittedly simplistic approach that at the end of the day, Werdum is simply the better fighter.
Loot's Pick to Win the Match: I'm betting on Fabricio Werdum at -165
Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza, (-335), 22-4 (2 KOs, 16 Submissions) vs. Vitor Belfort, (+275), 25-11 (18 KOs, 3 Submissions)
A pair of Brazilian standouts do battle in their home country in the co-main event, with Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza taking on Vitor Belfort in a middleweight 3-rounder. Both took different paths to success, with Souza, 36, using his perfect BJJ skills to get to this point, with 16 submissions in 22 wins. Belfort, 38, took a different approach—blasting his way to the top with 18 knockouts in 25 wins. Their different approaches should combine to make for an appealing bout that will be of great interest to the fans in Brazil.
Jacare parlayed his BJJ brilliance into an MMA career, turning pro in 2003. He beat Alexander Shlemenko in his 3rd fight, eventually going on a nice win streak in Japan's Dream promotion. After that, he joined Strikeforce, winning 7 of 8, with wins over the likes of Tim Kennedy and current UFC champion Robbie Lawler. His only loss in that stretch came to current UFC middleweight champ Luke Rockhold. He joined the UFC in 2013. Five straight wins later, including a rematch win against top contender Gegard Mousasi, he lost a decision to Yoel Romero, a loss that stood despite Romero testing positive out of competition.
Jacare may never have scaled to the heights that Belfort has, but he appears to be more in his prime. Belfort, however, lent some credence to his career in his last fight with a KO over Dan Henderson. He holds a 2013 KO over Rockhold, but a lot of people were dubious of Belfort's prospects moving forward after he was denied the right to continue using testosterone-replacement therapy. He dropped to 185 and looked a bit de-poofed in a TKO loss to then-champ Chris Weidman in May of 2015. And a win over the ancient Henderson doesn't necessarily mean he's back to his normal self. But with Belfort, we're still dealing with one of the sport's most-feared strikers and it doesn't look that's gone away yet.
Based on career trajectory, one can understand Jacare being such a favorite. It's been 8 years since Jacare has been stopped by strikes. And at the end of the day, he's likely the more complete MMA practitioner, in addition to being the fresher fighter. But when picking an underdog, you'd prefer to do so with one who has one compelling trait and Vitor still has that power. At +275, I think there's enough good value on Belfort to warrant an underdog pick.
Loot's Prediction to Win the Fight: I'm betting on Vitor Belfort at +275
