UFC 196, Bellator 151, RFA, Titan

[CowboyT]

Lots of mma this week.

Latifi -200 2 to win 1
Nunes -140 2.8 to win 2
Miller -170 1.7 to win 1

I lean Tate, but I'm hoping to get a better line than +300 this week.
It'll also be interesting to see prop lines on Diaz-Mac (CM by TKO, CM -3.5, etc)
196 looks like a decision heavy card (I see 8 or 9 out of 12, personally)

 

[CowboyT]

Anderson-Lawlor goes to decision -180 1.8 to win 1
Skelly -150 1.5 to win 1
Taleb by decision +250 1 to win 2.5

 

[CowboyT]

Yamauchi -150 3 to win 2 (Bellator)

 

[graciefan]

I agree with Tate....way different matchup than Ronda!.....Tate will make this fight ugly and gets more dangerous as the fight goes on!.....just for fun i have a parlay...

Tate/Diaz .....40 to win 590

 

[CowboyT]

She's a much better striker, even though she's hittable. The problem with Ronda is that she makes no effort to shoot on the legs. A failed double (sprawled on) usually ends in a clinch with at least one underhook - throw! But according to Edmond, they don't work wrestling, or kicks, or judo clinch set-ups off boxing! WTF! Tate has also been tested in brutal fights (Cat comes to mind). I think Holly may win, but -350 is a bit much IMO.

 

[graciefan]

I agree!.....looking forward to see how it plays out! Tate like you said has no problem taking a shot or two coming in, thats the dirty style she thrives in!!.....dirtier the better for her! a little like Diego Sanchez, just a little!.....

 

[fade2win]

miller beats Sanchez imo- Diego is too much of a family man / bible thumper now- killer instinct all gone

 

[CowboyT]

miller beats Sanchez imo- Diego is too much of a family man / bible thumper now- killer instinct all gone

Agreed. When was the last time Diego should've actually won a fight? He should've lost Pearson, Gomi and Kampmann, so Paulo Thiago in 2010? The only thing that scares me is that Jim Miller does gas in 3rd rounds and Diego pushes a pace. But Diego's game of biting on the mouthpiece and throwing predictable haymakers for 15 minutes while getting sliced across the face every fight feels like we're watching a fighter from 2008. If he hadn't won tuf 1, he would've been cut several times by now.

 

[yinunleaded]

Agreed. When was the last time Diego should've actually won a fight? He should've lost Pearson, Gomi and Kampmann, so Paulo Thiago in 2010? The only thing that scares me is that Jim Miller does gas in 3rd rounds and Diego pushes a pace. But Diego's game of biting on the mouthpiece and throwing predictable haymakers for 15 minutes while getting sliced across the face every fight feels like we're watching a fighter from 2008. If he hadn't won tuf 1, he would've been cut several times by now.

Agreed, I think Miller is one of the better bets on the card.

 

[CowboyT]

Belly:
Not Kakai by decision -105 2.1 to win 2
Yamauchi -150 3 to win 2
Gonzalez +110 1 to win 1.1
Caldwell-Warren No decision +130 2 to win 2.6

Titan:
Gutierrez-Vinson U1.5 1.9 to win 1
Healy-Corbbrey U2.5 1 to win 1
Nobre-Elliot U3.5 1 to win 1.3
Siler-Harrison U3.5 1 to win 1.8
Simon-Dos Santos U2.5 1 to win 1.2

This is gonna be ugly. Good luck this weekend.

 

[MattyMatt]

Good luck and enjoy the fights tonight. I can't get a line for the fight I want to bet the most tonight in Belly. that may be a good thing...lol

Like the Titan bets. Hope Corbbrey can get this to the ground and get a major upset by way of sub. If not, he probably gets KO'd, so like your wager. Think Kakai is really good, so hope he gets the quick KO/sub for ya...

 

[CowboyT]

Not Kakai by decision -105 2.1 to win 2 +2 +2
Yamauchi -150 3 to win 2 -3 -1
Gonzalez +110 1 to win 1.1 +1.1 +.1
Caldwell-Warren No decision +130 2 to win 2.6 +2.6 +2.7
Gutierrez-Vinson U1.5 1.9 to win 1 -1.9 +.8
Healy-Corbbrey U2.5 1 to win 1 -1 -.2
Nobre-Elliot U3.5 1 to win 1.3 -1 -1.2
Siler-Harrison U3.5 1 to win 1.8 -1 -2.2
Simon-Dos Santos U2.5 1 to win 1.2 +1.2 -1

 

[CowboyT]

Fights to go distance:
O5.5 +115 2 to win 2.3
O6.5 +270 1 to win 2.7
O7.5 +720 .3 to win 2.2
O8.5 +2355 .2 to win 4.7
O9.5 +9825 .1 to win 9.8

come on, decisions!

 

[CowboyT]

Fights to go distance:
O5.5 +115 2 to win 2.3
O6.5 +270 1 to win 2.7
O7.5 +720 .3 to win 2.2
O8.5 +2355 .2 to win 4.7
O9.5 +9825 .1 to win 9.8

Ishihara +160 1 to win 1.6
Ishihara +3.5 -165 1.7 to win 1.7
Saggo -3.5 -155 1.6 to win 1
Saggo wins in rd 1 +300 .5 to win 1.5
Miller -170 1.7 to win 1
Miller by decision +130 1 to win 1.3
Skelly -150 1.5 to win 1
Skelly -3.5 +150 1 to win 1.5
Miranda-Guimaraes O2.5 +100 1 to win 1
Taleb by decision +250 1 to win 2.5
Silva in Round 1 +190 2 to win 3.8 (this is a strange way to bet this fight, but whatever)
Thatch-Bahazurdada starts round 2 -140 1.4 to win 1
Nunes -140 2.8 to win 2 (still like this one, but I got a shit line - didn't think ppl were this high on Shev)
Anderson-Lawlor goes to decision -180 1.8 to win 1
Lawlor +3.5 -160 1.6 to win 1
Latifi -200 2 to win 1 (again, I got a shit line)
Latifi by TKO/KO +115 1 to win 1.2
Tate +250 1 to win 2.5
Tate +5.5 +155 1 to win 1.5
Diaz-Conor start 2 -175 1.8 to win 1
McGregor wins in rd 2 +350 1 to win 3.5
McGregor wins in rd 3 +530 .5 to win 2.6

Good luck

 

[CowboyT]

O5.5 +115 2 to win 2.3 -2 -2
O6.5 +270 1 to win 2.7 -2 -3
O7.5 +720 .3 to win 2.2 -.3 -3.3
O8.5 +2355 .2 to win 4.7 -.2 -3.5
O9.5 +9825 .1 to win 9.8 -.1 -3.6 (ouch)
Ishihara +160 1 to win 1.6 +1.6 -2
Ishihara +3.5 -165 1.7 to win 1 +1 -1
Saggo -3.5 -155 1.6 to win 1 +1 0
Saggo wins in rd 1 +300 .5 to win 1.5 +1.5 1.5
Miller -170 1.7 to win 1 -1.7 -.2
Miller by decision +130 1 to win 1.3 -1 -1.2
Skelly -150 1.5 to win 1 -1.5 -2.7
Skelly -3.5 +150 1 to win 1.5 -1.5 -4.2
Miranda-Guimaraes O2.5 +100 1 to win 1 -1 -5.2
Taleb by decision +250 1 to win 2.5 -1 -6.2
Silva in Round 1 +190 2 to win 3.8 -2 -8.2
Thatch-Bahazurdada starts round 2 -140 1.4 to win 1 +1 -7.2
Nunes -140 2.8 to win 2 +2 -5.2
Anderson-Lawlor goes to decision -180 1.8 to win 1 +1 -4.2
Lawlor +3.5 -160 1.6 to win 1 +1 -3.2
Latifi -200 2 to win 1 (again, I got a shit line) +1 -2.2
Latifi by TKO/KO +115 1 to win 1.2 -1 -3.2
Tate +250 1 to win 2.5 +2.5 -.7
Tate +5.5 +155 1 to win 1.5 +1.5 +.8
Diaz-Conor start 2 -175 1.8 to win 1 +1 1.8
McGregor wins in rd 2 +350 1 to win 3.5 -1 +.8
McGregor wins in rd 3 +530 .5 to win 2.6 -.5 +.3

What a crazy night. I anticipated the fight with Tate, but not with Conor. At all.