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You have no idea. He talked his way into this fight, hasn't even fought at this weight class before. I dunno how he did it but it worked. He'll probably get killed but it's pretty amazing he talked himself into a title shot at a weight class he has never fought at before coming off a KO loss.
End is near for JJ
The UFC is carrying him as long as they can. Money maker for them. The only fighter he fought was the dragon that was in prime shape with no damage. The others were old, finished, & undersized. He would never make it against top HW's. Jones knows this so he takes on others that he and Dana know will result in a W. Vitor should have broken his arm and won, but for some odd reason he didn't. Back in the day fighters took on all sizes with no regard to the outcome, they just did it. Henderson had the balls to fight in different classes, Jones doesn't. He fights much smaller fighters, which make him look like "the guy." This will work it self out in the next 12-18 months and mark my words, JJ will lose 2-3 in a row if he steps up to HW, that's if they feed him top HW fighters. All marketing today, man I wish they could go back to the early 90's....
The UFC is carrying him as long as they can. Money maker for them. The only fighter he fought was the dragon that was in prime shape with no damage. The others were old, finished, & undersized. He would never make it against top HW's. Jones knows this so he takes on others that he and Dana know will result in a W. Vitor should have broken his arm and won, but for some odd reason he didn't. Back in the day fighters took on all sizes with no regard to the outcome, they just did it. Henderson had the balls to fight in different classes, Jones doesn't. He fights much smaller fighters, which make him look like "the guy." This will work it self out in the next 12-18 months and mark my words, JJ will lose 2-3 in a row if he steps up to HW, that's if they feed him top HW fighters. All marketing today, man I wish they could go back to the early 90's....
Absolutely LOVE Alan Belcher this weekend. He should be able to attack Bis, take him down, and his jitz is nasty...Also LOVE Sara McMann. She is the real deal, and IMO needs to be given the shot to fight Rousey, as she has the best shit of any girl I've seen of beating her, and I believe she would bc of the far superior wrestler she is. After all, they are the only 2 Olympians, so lets get it on!!
Comparing fighters from back then, to how things and fighters are today is like comparing Jordan and other old school players to todays NBA. Rule and style changes make it hard for strong arguments to either side. But Gracie will always been #1 in my books. The no weight class and multiple b2b fights in a night always impressed me
I GOT TO SUPPORT JON JONES SINCE HES OUR HOMETOWN FIGHTER. MAN THAT WHOLE FAMILY IS ALL GOOD IN SPORTSTIOGA DOWNS AND ALL THE LOCAL BARS WILL BE PACKED TO WATCH HIM FIGHT
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Betting Jones vs. Sonnen
Finding value in the main event, Nelson-Kongo and all UFC 159 bouts
By John Candido | FightMetric
ESPN INSIDER
In what will be more of a spectacle than a legitimate title fight at UFC 159 on Saturday night, light heavyweight champion Jon Jones takes on Chael Sonnen, who moves up in weight class as a gigantic underdog against Jones.
While the main event probably won't be close, the majority of the other fights on the card promise to be more compelling matchups, as Michael Bisping takes on Alan Belcher and Roy Nelson takes on Cheick Kongo.
Here's a breakdown of the statistics and odds surrounding the fights to see where betting value lies in UFC 159.
<CENTER>Jon Jones (minus-900) versus Chael Sonnen (plus-600)
</CENTER>
It's customary for Jones to be valued as a big favorite, and the trend won't stop against Sonnen, as most fans see this fight as more of a publicity stunt related to the TUF franchise than a true title match. And while minus-900 may have been a bit too much against some of Jones' previous opponents, those odds may be exactly right against the seriously overmatched Sonnen.
The biggest disparity, as with most Jones fights, will be the champion's gigantic reach advantage -- a whopping 11-inch edge over Sonnen. While most fighters make use of their reach advantage to outstrike opponents, Jones has most impressively used the edge to keep opponents from landing takedown attempts. Remarkably, he has maintained a 100 percent takedown defense against some of the top competition in the division, having never been put on his back in 12 UFC fights.
Jones' strength bodes particularly poorly for the wrestler Sonnen, whose main strength is his unparalleled ability to take opponents down. Landing a very high 3.94 takedowns per 15 minutes at an efficient 60 percent rate, Sonnen is usually able to impose his will on opponents by getting them to the ground and maintaining a dominant position. While it wouldn't be surprising if Sonnen was the first to get Jones to the ground, it also wouldn't be surprising if he wasn't able to take him down -- let alone keep him there.
This leaves us with the question of how Sonnen will fare standing if this is his only option against Jones. Not only does Jones possess a reach advantage in terms of striking, but he also lands more strikes per minute (3.92) than Sonnen (3.24), while landing strikes at a higher percentage (52 percent for Jones versus 44 percent for Sonnen). And with both fighters holding very similar defensive striking abilities, Sonnen will likely find himself at a disadvantage on his feet in the event that his double-leg takedown isn't effective.
Given that Jones has the tools to counter Sonnen's best shot -- and will outdo him standing -- consider a very large minus-900 favorite a reasonable price for the nearly sure thing.
Insider's value pick: <OFFER>Stay away</OFFER>
<CENTER>Roy Nelson (minus-230) versus Cheick Kongo (plus-190)
</CENTER>
While fan favorite Nelson is best known for his unique physique and giant knockout power, the one thing he isn't known for is his technical efficiency. Preferring to brawl rather than use technique, Nelson routinely gets the best of opponents by putting them out of their comfort zone. Against more technically sound fighters, however, Nelson has had a much harder time imposing his brutish style. And upon examining the stats, it appears that Kongo just happens to be that type of fighter.
What will come in handy most for Kongo is his nine-inch reach advantage over Nelson, which he will likely use to keep Nelson at a distance and off balance. Kongo isn't just all reach, though, as he possesses some of the best technical striking skills in the heavyweight division, landing 3.53 strikes per minute at a rate of 58 percent. With Nelson only landing 2.45 strikes per minute at a much lower efficiency of 38 percent, Kongo should be able to get the best of Nelson while remaining outside of the pocket.
In addition, Nelson tends to take a large amount of damage in seeking the spectacular knockout, with an extremely high 4.81 strikes absorbed per minute. Though he has never been knocked out in his career -- taking this damage due to an amazing chin -- Kongo does have what it takes to win this fight by a decision if it indeed makes it all three rounds. And with Kongo only absorbing 1.44 strikes per minute, it should be easy for him to make Nelson look bad to the judges as long as he can avoid getting caught by Nelson's power.
What also makes this scenario likely is that Kongo has been definitively knocked out only once in his 17-fight UFC career. And while it's true that this one knockout came at the hands of another big power puncher in Mark Hunt, the plus-190 odds that you'll get for Kongo as the underdog more than make it worth the chance that he'll last three rounds against the technically inferior Nelson, getting the best of "Big Country" on the scorecards.
Insider's value pick: Kongo
<CENTER>[h=3]Phil Davis (minus-330) versus Vinny Magalhaes (plus-270)[/h]</CENTER>
After bursting onto the scene of the light heavyweight division as one of the most exciting prospects since Jones, Davis seems to have hit a wall, thanks to a nationally televised loss to Rashad Evans and a somewhat underwhelming victory against Wagner Prado. However, against submission specialist Magalhaes, Davis should have what it takes to return to his previously dominant form, as his style matches up favorably against a fellow one-dimensional fighter.
Davis' most notable skill is his wrestling, with which he is able to get opponents to the ground at a rate of 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes. In addition, Davis has proved very difficult to take down, possessing a very high 73 percent takedown defense, with nearly all of them coming at the hands of Evans. Against Magalhaes, who has a pedestrian 1.91 takedowns per 15 minutes rate, Davis shouldn't find himself in any danger of ending up on his back. On the other hand, with Magalhaes possessing a takedown defense of only 50 percent, Davis is almost guaranteed to be able to get Magalhaes to the ground if he so chooses. However, he might find himself in a more favorable position standing, as he has proved to be very dangerous on the ground, gaining eight of his 10 victories by submission.
But if Davis does decide to keep the fight standing, "Mr. Wonderful" possesses a gigantic edge in his terrific ability to avoid taking strikes, with an unrivaled 0.94 strikes absorbed per minute, the best mark in the UFC. Against Magalhaes, who has a much larger 2.85 strikes absorbed per minute rate, Davis should be able to get the best of Magalhaes on his feet as well. Davis has never been submitted in his career and possesses an advantage in nearly every area of this fight, so consider him to be more than a sure thing against Magalhaes as only a minus-330 favorite.
Insider's value pick: Davis
<CENTER>[h=3]James Head (minus-170) versus Nick Catone (plus-150)[/h]</CENTER>
Neither Head nor Catone has looked very good lately, with both fighters recently suffering stoppage losses in their previous fights. And though Head is getting cast as the favorite in this fight, Catone is really the one with a significant advantage on Saturday night. You won't see it in the odds, as it happens to be well hidden in the stats.
Catone's biggest strength is his wrestling ability, which he utilizes to take opponents down 3.47 times per 15 minutes. However, it would appear that Head has an answer to Catone's wrestling ability, as he currently holds a 70 percent takedown defense. But this statistic is a complete misrepresentation, as it was almost entirely amassed in one fight, in Head's win against Brian Ebersole.
Though it might seem impressive that Head was able to successfully defend 14 of 15 attempts by the notable wrestler Ebersole, it should be noted that Ebersole had taken the fight on short notice. And for anyone who watched the fight, Ebersole's lack of conditioning and ability were obvious. If you consider the fact that Head possessed a very subpar takedown defense of only 25 percent before that fight, you can see why these padded stats fall heavily in favor of Catone.
And with Catone possessing a better striking defense than Head (2.13 strikes absorbed per minute for Catone, versus 3.23 for Head), Catone also should be able to safely hold his own standing, avoiding the possibility of a knockout. With the underdog Catone getting a terrific plus-150 on account of Head's significantly misleading stat line, consider him to be a terrific upset bet for the UFC 159 undercard.
Insider's value pick: Catone
Finding value in the main event, Nelson-Kongo and all UFC 159 bouts
By John Candido | FightMetric
ESPN INSIDER
In what will be more of a spectacle than a legitimate title fight at UFC 159 on Saturday night, light heavyweight champion Jon Jones takes on Chael Sonnen, who moves up in weight class as a gigantic underdog against Jones.
While the main event probably won't be close, the majority of the other fights on the card promise to be more compelling matchups, as Michael Bisping takes on Alan Belcher and Roy Nelson takes on Cheick Kongo.
Here's a breakdown of the statistics and odds surrounding the fights to see where betting value lies in UFC 159.
<CENTER>Jon Jones (minus-900) versus Chael Sonnen (plus-600)
</CENTER>
It's customary for Jones to be valued as a big favorite, and the trend won't stop against Sonnen, as most fans see this fight as more of a publicity stunt related to the TUF franchise than a true title match. And while minus-900 may have been a bit too much against some of Jones' previous opponents, those odds may be exactly right against the seriously overmatched Sonnen.
The biggest disparity, as with most Jones fights, will be the champion's gigantic reach advantage -- a whopping 11-inch edge over Sonnen. While most fighters make use of their reach advantage to outstrike opponents, Jones has most impressively used the edge to keep opponents from landing takedown attempts. Remarkably, he has maintained a 100 percent takedown defense against some of the top competition in the division, having never been put on his back in 12 UFC fights.
Jones' strength bodes particularly poorly for the wrestler Sonnen, whose main strength is his unparalleled ability to take opponents down. Landing a very high 3.94 takedowns per 15 minutes at an efficient 60 percent rate, Sonnen is usually able to impose his will on opponents by getting them to the ground and maintaining a dominant position. While it wouldn't be surprising if Sonnen was the first to get Jones to the ground, it also wouldn't be surprising if he wasn't able to take him down -- let alone keep him there.
This leaves us with the question of how Sonnen will fare standing if this is his only option against Jones. Not only does Jones possess a reach advantage in terms of striking, but he also lands more strikes per minute (3.92) than Sonnen (3.24), while landing strikes at a higher percentage (52 percent for Jones versus 44 percent for Sonnen). And with both fighters holding very similar defensive striking abilities, Sonnen will likely find himself at a disadvantage on his feet in the event that his double-leg takedown isn't effective.
Given that Jones has the tools to counter Sonnen's best shot -- and will outdo him standing -- consider a very large minus-900 favorite a reasonable price for the nearly sure thing.
Insider's value pick: <OFFER>Stay away</OFFER>
<CENTER>Roy Nelson (minus-230) versus Cheick Kongo (plus-190)
</CENTER>
While fan favorite Nelson is best known for his unique physique and giant knockout power, the one thing he isn't known for is his technical efficiency. Preferring to brawl rather than use technique, Nelson routinely gets the best of opponents by putting them out of their comfort zone. Against more technically sound fighters, however, Nelson has had a much harder time imposing his brutish style. And upon examining the stats, it appears that Kongo just happens to be that type of fighter.
What will come in handy most for Kongo is his nine-inch reach advantage over Nelson, which he will likely use to keep Nelson at a distance and off balance. Kongo isn't just all reach, though, as he possesses some of the best technical striking skills in the heavyweight division, landing 3.53 strikes per minute at a rate of 58 percent. With Nelson only landing 2.45 strikes per minute at a much lower efficiency of 38 percent, Kongo should be able to get the best of Nelson while remaining outside of the pocket.
In addition, Nelson tends to take a large amount of damage in seeking the spectacular knockout, with an extremely high 4.81 strikes absorbed per minute. Though he has never been knocked out in his career -- taking this damage due to an amazing chin -- Kongo does have what it takes to win this fight by a decision if it indeed makes it all three rounds. And with Kongo only absorbing 1.44 strikes per minute, it should be easy for him to make Nelson look bad to the judges as long as he can avoid getting caught by Nelson's power.
What also makes this scenario likely is that Kongo has been definitively knocked out only once in his 17-fight UFC career. And while it's true that this one knockout came at the hands of another big power puncher in Mark Hunt, the plus-190 odds that you'll get for Kongo as the underdog more than make it worth the chance that he'll last three rounds against the technically inferior Nelson, getting the best of "Big Country" on the scorecards.
Insider's value pick: Kongo
<CENTER>[h=3]Phil Davis (minus-330) versus Vinny Magalhaes (plus-270)[/h]</CENTER>
After bursting onto the scene of the light heavyweight division as one of the most exciting prospects since Jones, Davis seems to have hit a wall, thanks to a nationally televised loss to Rashad Evans and a somewhat underwhelming victory against Wagner Prado. However, against submission specialist Magalhaes, Davis should have what it takes to return to his previously dominant form, as his style matches up favorably against a fellow one-dimensional fighter.
Davis' most notable skill is his wrestling, with which he is able to get opponents to the ground at a rate of 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes. In addition, Davis has proved very difficult to take down, possessing a very high 73 percent takedown defense, with nearly all of them coming at the hands of Evans. Against Magalhaes, who has a pedestrian 1.91 takedowns per 15 minutes rate, Davis shouldn't find himself in any danger of ending up on his back. On the other hand, with Magalhaes possessing a takedown defense of only 50 percent, Davis is almost guaranteed to be able to get Magalhaes to the ground if he so chooses. However, he might find himself in a more favorable position standing, as he has proved to be very dangerous on the ground, gaining eight of his 10 victories by submission.
But if Davis does decide to keep the fight standing, "Mr. Wonderful" possesses a gigantic edge in his terrific ability to avoid taking strikes, with an unrivaled 0.94 strikes absorbed per minute, the best mark in the UFC. Against Magalhaes, who has a much larger 2.85 strikes absorbed per minute rate, Davis should be able to get the best of Magalhaes on his feet as well. Davis has never been submitted in his career and possesses an advantage in nearly every area of this fight, so consider him to be more than a sure thing against Magalhaes as only a minus-330 favorite.
Insider's value pick: Davis
<CENTER>[h=3]James Head (minus-170) versus Nick Catone (plus-150)[/h]</CENTER>
Neither Head nor Catone has looked very good lately, with both fighters recently suffering stoppage losses in their previous fights. And though Head is getting cast as the favorite in this fight, Catone is really the one with a significant advantage on Saturday night. You won't see it in the odds, as it happens to be well hidden in the stats.
Catone's biggest strength is his wrestling ability, which he utilizes to take opponents down 3.47 times per 15 minutes. However, it would appear that Head has an answer to Catone's wrestling ability, as he currently holds a 70 percent takedown defense. But this statistic is a complete misrepresentation, as it was almost entirely amassed in one fight, in Head's win against Brian Ebersole.
Though it might seem impressive that Head was able to successfully defend 14 of 15 attempts by the notable wrestler Ebersole, it should be noted that Ebersole had taken the fight on short notice. And for anyone who watched the fight, Ebersole's lack of conditioning and ability were obvious. If you consider the fact that Head possessed a very subpar takedown defense of only 25 percent before that fight, you can see why these padded stats fall heavily in favor of Catone.
And with Catone possessing a better striking defense than Head (2.13 strikes absorbed per minute for Catone, versus 3.23 for Head), Catone also should be able to safely hold his own standing, avoiding the possibility of a knockout. With the underdog Catone getting a terrific plus-150 on account of Head's significantly misleading stat line, consider him to be a terrific upset bet for the UFC 159 undercard.
Insider's value pick: Catone
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