UFC 100 Preview and Picks – Lesnar Still The Next Best Thing

Betonline · Jul 8, 2009

UFC 100 Betting – Lesnar Still The Next Best Thing<o

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The UFC 100 odds are posted in almost every sportsbook and one thing is pretty clear: Lesnar is the betting favorite across the board. Lesnar is a -250 favorite, which indicates that not many people are giving Mir a chance.

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>The UFC fight card is chalk-full of good fights including George St. Pierre-Thiago Alves, Dan Henderson-Michael Bisping and many other intriguing fighters. But clearly, the main event will be the two heavyweights.
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>A lot of sports predictions are similar siding with the sportsbook odds makers and are picking Lesnar.

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>When you do the math, it’s hard not to like him.

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>This fight will be the long-awaited rematch and many handicappers should just watch the tape of the first fight to get an idea of how this fight should go.

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>Lesnar, who was a raw, inexperienced MMA fighter when he first met Mir in the octagon, still dominated the fight for the most part. But when the fight got to the ground, Lesnar was al little careless and Mir, who is a submission expert, took advantage of Lesnar’s rookie mistake.

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>The experience factor is a big deal and I’m betting management agrees. Mir was Lesnar’s second MMA fight ever and he dominated and nearly won. Now that Lesnar has improved his MMA skills, this fight could be very one-sided.

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>Lesnar is an expert wrestler but now he’s worked on his ground defense. After watching how he lost his first fight, he is going to be very wary of Mir trying to pull another rabbit out of his hat again in this fight. The good news is this time he will be far more prepared for it.

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>On their feet, Lesnar has the clear edge once again. While Mir has worked on his boxing, his power isn’t anything close to what Lesnar’s punches pack and it probably won’t benefit Mir very much to try to win this fight standing.

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>These fighters are very close in skill but the reality is that Lesnar has the edges in almost every category except for submissions.

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>While Mir was more of a finished product in the first fight, Lesnar, who nearly won the first time around, has grown significantly since their first bout.

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>At UFC 100, he’ll put his new skills on display and mix it with the same blueprint that helped him get on top in the first fight. Look for a Lesnar win at UFC 100.

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WELTERWEIGHT<o></o>

Jon Fitch (22-3) vs Paulo Thiago (11-0)

Betting favorite: Fitch -400
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Why Fitch could win: Fitch will win if he continues to be Jon Fitch, essentially. He’s one of the top welterweights in the world and would likely be champ for a while if GSP wasn’t so far ahead of the field. He’s a world-class wrestler with underrated striking and great toughness. He’s unlikely to get dropped against Thiago the way Josh Koscheck did, as he hasn’t been knocked out in seven years.
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Why Thiago could win: He’ll win if he’s a better fighter than most sports predictions experts think. Koscheck didn’t exactly have a glass jaw, so maybe Thiago hits really hard? Also, he could grind out a submission on the ground if Fitch leaves himself open.
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Outlook: Personally, I don’t think Thiago deserves this fight yet. Why not Martin Kampmann? Fitch should dominate, but maybe Thiago pulls a Demian Maia and proves that he was simply a very well-kept secret. Gambling software picks Fitch to win, though.
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Daily sports pick: Fitch -400
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LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT<o></o>

Stephan Bonnar (14-5) vs Mark Coleman (15-9)

Betting favorite: Bonnar -300
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Why Bonnar could win: Bonnar takes this fight if he keeps it standing. We know even a big guy like Coleman can’t hurt Bonnar, who’s never really been knocked out. A sledgehammer wouldn’t stand a chance against Bonnar’s ridiculous chin. Bonnar is faster and a better natural puncher, so he should score points standing up against the Hammer.
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Why Coleman could win: Coleman is still a fantastic wrestler, even at his age, so he may have a chance if he can take Bonnar down and mount him to set up the ground-and-pound.
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Outlook: Even if Bonnar ends up on the ground, he’s a solid Jiu-Jitsu fighter, so he could submit Coleman. I’m not sure if Bonnar will finish him, but I still like the American Psycho to win.
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Daily sports pick: Bonnar -300
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MIDDLWEIGHT<o></o>

Yoshihiro Akiyama (12-1) vs Alan Belcher (14-5)

Betting favorite: Akiyama -300
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Why Akiyama could win: He can win in a number different ways if his scouting report, which rates him as the No. 10 middleweight in the world, is correct. He gets lots of submissions via armbar but has also shown knockout ability. By the sounds of it, he has a versatile arsenal and can feel out what works best against Belcher.
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Why Belcher could win: Well, I suppose he could surprise if Akiyama is a bust (which some fighters have been once they crossed the pond). Think of Alan Belcher as a solid UFC stepping stone. He’s not a bad fighter but he’ll never really beat anyone noteworthy. He’s brought in to battle up-and-comers and make them work hard, and that’s what he’ll do against Akiyama.
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Daily sports pick: Akiyama

UFC 100 Preview and Picks – Lesnar Still The Next Best Thing

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