Uefa cup finals have traditionally been high bookings affairs, and this one should be no exception. I ve been doing some research on my initial hunch of a high booking game and here are the booking from the past 10 years or so of uefa cup finals.
10 points for a yellow card, 25 for a red one.
Maximum points per player 35.
2002-2003
5 yellow cards
2 red cards.
(100 points.)
2001-2002
Yellow cards: Rzasa (23), Paauwe (46), van Persie (64), De Haan (85);
Amoroso (49), Dede (53), Rosicky (66)
Red card: Kohler (31)
(95 points)
2000-2001
Sent off: Magno Mocelin 99, Antonio Karmona 116 (both for 2nd yellow
card)
(70 points.)
1999-2000
booked: Bülent, Popescu, Okan, Capone, Hasan / Vieira, Keown, Adams
(80 points)
1998-1999
booked: Asprilla / Blondeau
(20 points.)
1997-1998
booked: Fresi, Zanetti, Ronaldo / Jugovic, Almeyda
sent off: West (82) - Almeyda (89)
(100 points)
1996-1997
booked: Galante
(10 points)
1995-1996
booked: Witschge, Croci, Dugarry, Tholot / Helmer, Frey, Babbel
(70 points)
1994-1995
booked: Apolloni, Pin, Zola, Sensini / Deschamps, Tacchinardi.
(60 points.)
It doesn't take a molecular biologist to realise what a large influence uefa cup finals have on the total bookings. I am looking here in particular at a certain over bet, the over 45 points, with the points per card as indicated above. Gamebookers have set this number at 2.0 odds (and an obligatory single bet). If one takes a look at the past 10 finals, only 2 out of these have gone under 45 points, and almost all the rest have gone vastly over that number.
At first glance gamebookers' number seems way off, but there is a mediating factor here, the referee. Pierlugi Collina, is not a bookings ref for sure. He averages something like 3.something yellow cards per game, he is not card shy, but he is no where close to some of the bookings afficionados uefa refs. But is that enough to compromise the chances of the over, set at 2.0 (bet365 at 2.1), so much when 8/10 of the past finals have gone whooping over? I wouldn't think so, especially when we are dealing here with too tough, defense minded teams both having a tendency for bookings.
All things considered this one looks like a fair bet. But some folk at BETFAIR are offering the EQUAL to 45 points OR over at 2.26. And there's a definate edge to that. I am on it, and i suggest that you are too.
Enjoy.
bol. Jack.
10 points for a yellow card, 25 for a red one.
Maximum points per player 35.
2002-2003
5 yellow cards
2 red cards.
(100 points.)
2001-2002
Yellow cards: Rzasa (23), Paauwe (46), van Persie (64), De Haan (85);
Amoroso (49), Dede (53), Rosicky (66)
Red card: Kohler (31)
(95 points)
2000-2001
Sent off: Magno Mocelin 99, Antonio Karmona 116 (both for 2nd yellow
card)
(70 points.)
1999-2000
booked: Bülent, Popescu, Okan, Capone, Hasan / Vieira, Keown, Adams
(80 points)
1998-1999
booked: Asprilla / Blondeau
(20 points.)
1997-1998
booked: Fresi, Zanetti, Ronaldo / Jugovic, Almeyda
sent off: West (82) - Almeyda (89)
(100 points)
1996-1997
booked: Galante
(10 points)
1995-1996
booked: Witschge, Croci, Dugarry, Tholot / Helmer, Frey, Babbel
(70 points)
1994-1995
booked: Apolloni, Pin, Zola, Sensini / Deschamps, Tacchinardi.
(60 points.)
It doesn't take a molecular biologist to realise what a large influence uefa cup finals have on the total bookings. I am looking here in particular at a certain over bet, the over 45 points, with the points per card as indicated above. Gamebookers have set this number at 2.0 odds (and an obligatory single bet). If one takes a look at the past 10 finals, only 2 out of these have gone under 45 points, and almost all the rest have gone vastly over that number.
At first glance gamebookers' number seems way off, but there is a mediating factor here, the referee. Pierlugi Collina, is not a bookings ref for sure. He averages something like 3.something yellow cards per game, he is not card shy, but he is no where close to some of the bookings afficionados uefa refs. But is that enough to compromise the chances of the over, set at 2.0 (bet365 at 2.1), so much when 8/10 of the past finals have gone whooping over? I wouldn't think so, especially when we are dealing here with too tough, defense minded teams both having a tendency for bookings.
All things considered this one looks like a fair bet. But some folk at BETFAIR are offering the EQUAL to 45 points OR over at 2.26. And there's a definate edge to that. I am on it, and i suggest that you are too.
Enjoy.
bol. Jack.
