Ucf vs Temple thoughts?

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Ucf is a 21.5 pt dog in this one going up against a very good defensive temple squad. I feel like this game is going to be a blowout.

The only common opponent between the two is Tulane. Tulane beat UCF 45-31 I believe, while temple crushed Tulane 49-10. UCF has looked terrible in nearly every game this season, and is 0-6.

I'm not a fan of betting favorites when laying more than 20, but this one feels like a blowout. Any thoughts on this game or any others?
 

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Haven't seen UCF play much at all, aside from a few minutes of their opening night loss to FIU. Temple D-Line was disrupting Tulane all day long last week. I do not know how Tulane's O-Line matches up vs. UCF though. That result for UCF vs. Tulane is eye opening though, especially after seeing how mediocre Tulane is. They were down 28 twice, and scored two late TD's to make the score look a little closer. It was a blowout all the way. Tulane was also 4 for 14 on 3rd downs. UCF could only muster -35 rushing yards...lol. That's negative 1.6 per carry! I know sacks off of that though, in college, right? Then they follow that pathetic game up with another stinker at home vs. UCONN. They did manage to get 60 rushing yards. Hard to believe they actually led South Carolina in the 2H!! Although, that might be just as telling as to how poor South Carolina is this season.

Seems like a lot of points, but it's only 5.5 more than Temple gave Tulane last week. UCF might have a better QB, but he's a freshman and apparently is not very mobile, nor does he have the help around him (yet?) in order to succeed. He's going to have to have a really solid day for them to keep up with Temple. Another issue is the UCF is 121st in 3rd down conversions this year (26 for 84), and I'm sure with their lack of running game, that's partly due to having some longer 3rd down yardage to get. So probably see our fair share of short drives, meaning their D is going to be on the field more, so even if their D is a solid unit, they are likely going to get worn down. And sure enough UCF is ranked 111th (that is out of 127) in TOP, and Temple is ranked 5th, so that should tell you something there too.

That's a lot of points though, obviously. I was against Temple last week, stupidly. I hate just jumping on a team a week after I was beat by them, as sometimes I think I am putting too much stock in one game. This one is on my radar though.
 

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UCF is allowing 2.5 sacks per game, and Temple is averaging 3 sacks per game. Another stat where the teams are on opposite sides of the spectrum, in Temple's favor.

I don't want to just regurgitate stats and scores to back up a pick, it can be misleading, and despite Temple's success, they are still Temple and as I said, that is a lot of points, and they could be open to allowing a backdoor cover.

Still, these are all very telling numbers in my opinion. Would love to hear from someone that's seen UCF play a few times.
 
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The Tulane win over UCF was a bit skewed. Tulane had a +4 TO margin in that game. However, I think Uconns defense is pretty damn good, and gives a decent gauge how UCF will fare against Temples defense. Point is,I don't see UCF scoring more than 13. Can Temple put up 35+ ? Probably.
 
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UCF is a young team and lead the NCAA this season with "players that have started for their 1st time". Their qb (who is decent) has been hurt all year. They lost all of their skilled wr's from last season to graduation and the draft. Their defense is ok but the offense has been terrible. Coach O'Leary just stepped down a few days ago from interim AD and their fanbase wants him to step down as coach asap (with all do respect). I havent watched them much this season due to 1) work 2) their crappy play.

A bunch of my fellow alum friends are ticked off and have been betting against ucf to make some coin. I havent spoken to them this week about the big spread but something tells me that their laying off this game
 

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