From a earlier post I made a month ago.
Boston Bruins
Wager the under on totals of 5.5 or against the Western Conference.
Two strong angles should be noted regarding the Bruins propensity to go under the number.
1) Last year they went 21-41 when the total was set at 5.5.
2) The Bruins recorded a 1-8-1 O/U mark versus the Western Conference last year.
In the ten games they played versus the west only once did the two teams combine to score more than 5 goals. That lone game was early in the season, at Los Angeles, and had Manny Fernandez against Jonathan Bernier in nets. Seven goals were scored in the third period alone and the 8-6 Bruins final went a long way in skewing Boston’s season ending 5.1 goals per game average.
It should be also noted that the Bruins were only 1 of 4 Eastern Conference teams to have a winning record against the west.<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->
Fade Calgary In October
October is not Calgary’s month. Since the lockout the Flames have started their seasons in the following manner.
2005-06.….Calgary won just 4 of their first 13 games.
2006-07.…..Calgary won just 3 of their first 12.
2007-08.…..Calgary won just 6 of their first 17.
13 wins and 29 loses. After that they post winning records and have made the playoffs every year.
I can’t explain entirely why this dichotomy exists but a good beginning would be to look at Miikka Kiprusoff’s splits. He is a notorious slow starter. His lifetime October GAA is 2.98 and includes a .893 save percentage. More than one half goal worse than any other month during the season.
Kiprusoff has another disturbing trend. His numbers have steadily declined since he led Calgary into the 2004 Stanley Cup final. After he was traded to Calgary, (in November 2003), he posted a 1.69 GAA and .933 save percentage for the Flames in the '03-'04 season.
In 2005-06 his numbers rose to 2.07, .923.
I suppose we can excuse that jump to the new rules of the post lockout NHL. But what excuse can we give him for the next two years?
When the league averages for scoring began to steady, (and eventually decline), Kipprusoff’s continued to climb.
2006-07.……..2.46 GAA…… .917 save percentage
2007-08.…….2.69 GAA……. .906 save percentge
His GAA has risen exactly one full goal since 2003.
Kiprusoff and the Flames have another long standing trend. They win at home and struggle on the road. Since the lockout Calgary has won 81 of their 123 home games. At the Saddledome Kiprusoff has a lifetime record of 92-31-3-15, (W-L-T-OTL). He has 18 shutouts in those games, a 1.94 GAA, and .927 save percentage. On the road his lifetime GAA grows to 2.77.
How does this home/road split translate into Calgary’s futile Octobers?
I mentioned earlier the Flames had a 13-29 record to start the last three seasons. The home/road breakdown amounts to, 9-12 at home and 5-17 on the road. Clearly profitable numbers either way considering the juice you’d have to lay fading them on the road or the plus price you’d get by betting against them at home.
Boston Bruins
Wager the under on totals of 5.5 or against the Western Conference.
Two strong angles should be noted regarding the Bruins propensity to go under the number.
1) Last year they went 21-41 when the total was set at 5.5.
2) The Bruins recorded a 1-8-1 O/U mark versus the Western Conference last year.
In the ten games they played versus the west only once did the two teams combine to score more than 5 goals. That lone game was early in the season, at Los Angeles, and had Manny Fernandez against Jonathan Bernier in nets. Seven goals were scored in the third period alone and the 8-6 Bruins final went a long way in skewing Boston’s season ending 5.1 goals per game average.
It should be also noted that the Bruins were only 1 of 4 Eastern Conference teams to have a winning record against the west.<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->
Fade Calgary In October
October is not Calgary’s month. Since the lockout the Flames have started their seasons in the following manner.
2005-06.….Calgary won just 4 of their first 13 games.
2006-07.…..Calgary won just 3 of their first 12.
2007-08.…..Calgary won just 6 of their first 17.
13 wins and 29 loses. After that they post winning records and have made the playoffs every year.
I can’t explain entirely why this dichotomy exists but a good beginning would be to look at Miikka Kiprusoff’s splits. He is a notorious slow starter. His lifetime October GAA is 2.98 and includes a .893 save percentage. More than one half goal worse than any other month during the season.
Kiprusoff has another disturbing trend. His numbers have steadily declined since he led Calgary into the 2004 Stanley Cup final. After he was traded to Calgary, (in November 2003), he posted a 1.69 GAA and .933 save percentage for the Flames in the '03-'04 season.
In 2005-06 his numbers rose to 2.07, .923.
I suppose we can excuse that jump to the new rules of the post lockout NHL. But what excuse can we give him for the next two years?
When the league averages for scoring began to steady, (and eventually decline), Kipprusoff’s continued to climb.
2006-07.……..2.46 GAA…… .917 save percentage
2007-08.…….2.69 GAA……. .906 save percentge
His GAA has risen exactly one full goal since 2003.
Kiprusoff and the Flames have another long standing trend. They win at home and struggle on the road. Since the lockout Calgary has won 81 of their 123 home games. At the Saddledome Kiprusoff has a lifetime record of 92-31-3-15, (W-L-T-OTL). He has 18 shutouts in those games, a 1.94 GAA, and .927 save percentage. On the road his lifetime GAA grows to 2.77.
How does this home/road split translate into Calgary’s futile Octobers?
I mentioned earlier the Flames had a 13-29 record to start the last three seasons. The home/road breakdown amounts to, 9-12 at home and 5-17 on the road. Clearly profitable numbers either way considering the juice you’d have to lay fading them on the road or the plus price you’d get by betting against them at home.
