Turnout Numbers

BetIt · Nov 10, 2008

ion
Results

</td> <td width="70" align="right">

2008 Unofficial Voting-Eligible Population Turnout Rate

</td> <td width="70" align="right">

Initial Turnout Estimate

</td> <td width="70" align="right">

2008 Voting-Eligible Population

</td> <td width="90" align="right">

2004 VEP Turnout Rate

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

2008 Minus 2004
Turnout

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">United States</td> <td width="50">
</td> <td align="right">

61.2%

</td> <td align="right">130,395,000</td> <td align="right">213,005,467</td> <td align="right">

60.1%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

1.1%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Alabama</td> <td width="50">

Certified

</td> <td align="right">

61.8%

</td> <td align="right">2,100,000</td> <td align="right">3,395,726</td> <td align="right">

57.2%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

4.6%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Alaska</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

62.4%

</td> <td align="right">300,000</td> <td align="right">480,513</td> <td align="right">

69.1%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-6.7%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Arizona</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

56.1%

</td> <td align="right">2,300,000</td> <td align="right">4,101,763</td> <td align="right">

54.1%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

2.0%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Arkansas</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

56.5%

</td> <td align="right">1,150,000</td> <td align="right">2,036,397</td> <td align="right">

53.6%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

2.9%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">California
</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

61.5%

</td> <td align="right">13,600,000</td> <td align="right">22,099,354</td> <td align="right">

58.8%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

2.7%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Colorado</td> <td width="50">

Certified

</td> <td align="right">

66.5%

</td> <td align="right">2,300,000</td> <td align="right">3,457,766</td> <td align="right">

66.7%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-0.2%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Connecticut</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

67.1%

</td> <td align="right">1,650,000</td> <td align="right">2,459,219</td> <td align="right">

65.0%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

2.1%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Delaware</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

66.3%

</td> <td align="right">415,000</td> <td align="right">626,035</td> <td align="right">

64.2%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

2.1%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">District of Columbia</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

57.3%

</td> <td align="right">250,000</td> <td align="right">436,259</td> <td align="right">

54.3%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

3.0%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Florida</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

67.2%

</td> <td align="right">8,400,000</td> <td align="right">12,504,810</td> <td align="right">

64.4%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

2.8%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Georgia</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

62.3%

</td> <td align="right">4,000,000</td> <td align="right">6,418,723</td> <td align="right">

56.2%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

6.1%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Hawaii</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

51.4%

</td> <td align="right">460,000</td> <td align="right">895,769</td> <td align="right">

48.2%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

3.2%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Idaho</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

63.2%

</td> <td align="right">660,000</td> <td align="right">1,043,770</td> <td align="right">

63.2%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

0.0%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Illinois</td> <td width="50">

Certified

</td> <td align="right">

61.3%

</td> <td align="right">5,400,000</td> <td align="right">8,807,459</td> <td align="right">

61.5%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-0.2%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="19">Indiana</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

59.2%

</td> <td align="right">2,750,000</td> <td align="right">4,643,061</td> <td align="right">

54.8%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

4.4%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Iowa</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

69.2%

</td> <td align="right">1,525,000</td> <td align="right">2,203,564</td> <td align="right">

69.9%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-0.7%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Kansas</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

61.3%

</td> <td align="right">1,210,000</td> <td align="right">1,973,350</td> <td align="right">

61.6%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-0.3%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Kentucky</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

57.7%

</td> <td align="right">1,830,000</td> <td align="right">3,173,618</td> <td align="right">

58.7%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-1.0%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Louisiana</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

63.4%

</td> <td align="right">1,960,000</td> <td align="right">3,091,474</td> <td align="right">

61.1%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

2.3%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Maine</td> <td width="50">

Certified

</td> <td align="right">

73.0%

</td> <td align="right">750,000</td> <td align="right">1,027,729</td> <td align="right">

73.8%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-0.8%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Maryland</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

67.0%

</td> <td align="right">2,600,000</td> <td align="right">3,879,558</td> <td align="right">

62.9%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

4.1%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Massachusetts</td> <td width="50">

Certified

</td> <td align="right">

66.2%

</td> <td align="right">3,060,000</td> <td align="right">4,621,954</td> <td align="right">

64.2%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

2.0%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Michigan</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

70.0%

</td> <td align="right">5,100,000</td> <td align="right">7,285,960</td> <td align="right">

66.6%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

3.4%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Minnesota</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

77.9%

</td> <td align="right">2,915,000</td> <td align="right">3,741,514</td> <td align="right">

78.4%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-0.5%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Mississippi</td> <td width="50">

Certified

</td> <td align="right">

57.9%

</td> <td align="right">1,220,000</td> <td align="right">2,105,464</td> <td align="right">

55.7%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

2.2%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Missouri</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

68.0%

</td> <td align="right">2,925,000</td> <td align="right">4,302,302</td> <td align="right">

65.3%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

2.7%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Montana</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

67.2%

</td> <td align="right">500,000</td> <td align="right">743,893</td> <td align="right">

64.4%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

2.8%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Nebraska</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

62.4%

</td> <td align="right">800,000</td> <td align="right">1,281,226</td> <td align="right">

62.9%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-0.5%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Nevada</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

59.4%

</td> <td align="right">1,000,000</td> <td align="right">1,682,325</td> <td align="right">

55.3%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

4.1%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">New Hampshire</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

71.9%

</td> <td align="right">720,000</td> <td align="right">1,001,941</td> <td align="right">

70.9%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

1.0%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">New Jersey</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

63.0%

</td> <td align="right">3,700,000</td> <td align="right">5,871,606</td> <td align="right">

63.8%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-0.8%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">New Mexico</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

58.9%

</td> <td align="right">820,000</td> <td align="right">1,391,968</td> <td align="right">

59.0%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-0.1%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">New York</td> <td width="50">

Certified

</td> <td align="right">

57.5%

</td> <td align="right">7,500,000</td> <td align="right">13,032,905</td> <td align="right">

58.0%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-0.5%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">North Carolina</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

66.4%

</td> <td align="right">4,350,000</td> <td align="right">6,553,452</td> <td align="right">

57.8%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

8.6%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">North Dakota</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

65.5%

</td> <td align="right">320,000</td> <td align="right">488,761</td> <td align="right">

64.8%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

0.7%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Ohio</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

63.4%

</td> <td align="right">5,400,000</td> <td align="right">8,522,809</td> <td align="right">

66.8%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-3.4%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Oklahoma</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

56.7%

</td> <td align="right">1,470,000</td> <td align="right">2,592,904</td> <td align="right">

58.3%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-1.6%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Oregon</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

66.4%

</td> <td align="right">1,800,000</td> <td align="right">2,711,171</td> <td align="right">

72.0%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-5.6%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Pennsylvania</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

62.4%

</td> <td align="right">5,850,000</td> <td align="right">9,376,750</td> <td align="right">

62.6%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-0.2%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Rhode Island</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

62.1%

</td> <td align="right">470,000</td> <td align="right">757,226</td> <td align="right">

58.5%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

3.6%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">South Carolina</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

58.8%

</td> <td align="right">1,930,000</td> <td align="right">3,279,996</td> <td align="right">

53.0%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

5.8%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">South Dakota</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

64.2%

</td> <td align="right">385,000</td> <td align="right">599,333</td> <td align="right">

68.2%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-4.0%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Tennessee</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

57.7%

</td> <td align="right">2,630,000</td> <td align="right">4,561,286</td> <td align="right">

56.3%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

1.4%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Texas
</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

54.6%

</td> <td align="right">8,100,000</td> <td align="right">14,830,142</td> <td align="right">

53.7%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

0.9%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Utah</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

50.8%

</td> <td align="right">900,000</td> <td align="right">1,771,753</td> <td align="right">

58.9%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-8.1%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Vermont</td> <td width="50">

Certified

</td> <td align="right">

63.5%

</td> <td align="right">310,000</td> <td align="right">488,171</td> <td align="right">

66.3%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-2.8%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Virginia</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

67.4%

</td> <td align="right">3,720,000</td> <td align="right">5,508,834</td> <td align="right">

60.6%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

6.8%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Washington</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

64.9%

</td> <td align="right">2,950,000</td> <td align="right">4,544,125</td> <td align="right">

66.9%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-2.0%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">West Virginia</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

50.3%

</td> <td align="right">710,000</td> <td align="right">1,410,817</td> <td align="right">

54.1%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-3.8%

</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffe8ce" height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Wisconsin</td> <td width="50">

Certified

</td> <td align="right">

72.2%

</td> <td align="right">2,970,000</td> <td align="right">4,115,502</td> <td align="right">

74.8%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

-2.6%

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="125" height="17">Wyoming</td> <td width="50">

Unofficial

</td> <td align="right">

66.6%

</td> <td align="right">260,000</td> <td align="right">390,516</td> <td align="right">

65.7%

</td> <td width="80" align="right">

0.9%

</td></tr></tbody></table>

D2bets · Nov 10, 2008

Looks like turnout not quite what it was cracked up to be. I take this to mean that it really probably wasn't young people or new voters or minorities that won it for Obama.

Why do Minnesotans so up so much more than anybody else?

steaktartar · Nov 10, 2008

D2bets said:
Looks like turnout not quite what it was cracked up to be. I take this to mean that it really probably wasn't young people or new voters or minorities that won it for Obama.

Why do Minnesotans so up so much more than anybody else?

it was a frustrated white middle class that was somewhat undecided that won obama the election by the margin he did

BetIt · Nov 10, 2008

D2bets said:
Looks like turnout not quite what it was cracked up to be. I take this to mean that it really probably wasn't young people or new voters or minorities that won it for Obama.

Why do Minnesotans so up so much more than anybody else?

Young had a national uptick of 2% and A.A about 1%

You need to look at individual states though to get a better idea. New battlegrounds saw highest turnout increase...old ones that weren't anymore...biggest decrease.

What's most evident is the dominance of young voters in 2008 vs 2004

BetIt · Nov 10, 2008

Ripped off a blog

Mapping the Youth Vote Impact

by Mike Connery, Sat Nov 08, 2008 at 11:58:35 AM EST
CIRCLE has updated their youth turnout numbers. You'll remember that these estimates are based on exit polls and the overall vote count. As absentee and early voting ballots get counted, the totals rise, changing the turnout numbers. CIRCLE now estimates that:

23 million young voters cast a ballot on Tuesday, an increase of 3.4 million over 2004.
Youth turnout will likely top off at 52 - 53%. That would rival the 1992 turnout, and fall just short of the all time record of 55.4% set in 1972.
Young voters accounted for 60% of the overall turnout increase. That for the whole electorate.
CIRCLE still estimates that young voters made up 18% of the total electorate.

The big story still remains Obama's staggering 66 - 32% margin among youth, and I want to explore that a little more in pictures. Here's a look an historical look at the youth vote margin, long-term and short-term:

We've made huge gains among youth in recent years, but it's amazing seeing the 24 year swing of young voters away from the Republicans after Reagan's all-time high in 1984.
CIRCLE had one final observation about the 2008 youth vote - as in 2004, turnout was higher in states that were highly targeted by the campaigns (and I would add independent organizations):

CIRCLE estimated comparative turnout in states that were heavily campaigned by both candidates (CO, FL, IA, IN, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA and WI), and all other states for youth and all ages combined. According to CIRCLE's estimation using aggregated counts of votes from each of these states, youth turnout in the heavily campaigned states was especially strong at 59%, compared with 47% for all other states combined. Using the same method, overall turnout in these heavily campaigned states was also high at 69%, compared with 56% for all other states combined. Based on these statistics, it can be inferred that young voters responded to various campaigning efforts in these states by casting their ballots at much higher rates than young people in other states.

The numbers will continue to move a little as all the votes come in, but the big question mark that remains about youth impact on the election is down ballot. Did Obama have coattails, and did his 66 - 32% margin translate into votes for other candidates? Or was there significant drop off? That's going to take some time to figure out, but it's an important question - with implications for how campaigns, the party and independent youth orgs conduct their work. I'll post when we know more.

barman · Nov 10, 2008

That map is pretty cool since it gives the younger generation a clear view of where NOT to live and build their futures.

Willie99 · Nov 10, 2008

good thing kids grow up :103631605

hey, what do you think the EC looks like if just AAs voted? or just the media? or Hollywood?

LOL

cutacrossshorty · Nov 10, 2008

Are these turnout numbers calculated based on how many votes counted or how many votes were cast? If they are based on those that were counted, it wouldn't include everyone that went to the polls and their ballot spoiled either by some malfunction or voter error. The numbers may or may not also include those that had to vote by "provisional" ballot. It was expected that there would be more provisional ballots cast in this election cycle than in 2004 and in 2004 there were over 3 million provisional ballots handed out.

There are some evil fuckers who don't want votes to count and they've devised several pitfalls to keep the numbers down.

barman · Nov 10, 2008

SheBar's vote became "provisional" when she went to insert her ballot into the scanner and it jammed.

The officials pulled it out and rather than give her a fresh ballot, they placed hers into what they deemed "the box for provisional ballots"

pubguy · Nov 10, 2008

What would that map look like if it was only property owners? or small biz owners under 20 employees?

barman · Nov 10, 2008

pubguy said:
What would that map look like if it was only property owners? or small biz owners under 20 employees?

My 2500 sq ft would be Blue under the latter grouping...heh

BetIt · Nov 10, 2008

The photo unavailable there shows what the youth map looked like in 2004. There is a ton more red on the map in 2004.

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