Turn Time: Monday's Handicapping Discussion

[GreenThumbRacing]

How many of you have heard of this? Or used this as a handicapping tool?


In the Brohamer/Sartin methodology, a race is divided into three segments called“internal fractions” as shown below.


Internal Race Fractions
Fraction #1:Fraction #2:Fraction #3:

Sprints
gate to 2 furlongs
2 furlongs to 4 furlongs4 furlongs to finish

Routes
gate to 4 furlongs
4 furlongs to 6 furlongs6 furlongs to finish


The basis for virtually all Brohamer handicapping concepts is the feet-per-secondvelocity of each horse for each fraction. The calculation for this is to divide the lengthof the fraction in feet by the horse’s time for the fraction in seconds. Here is theexample for a six furlong race that we have been using in this series of articles. TheTurn-Time for this horse is 57.14 feet-per-second.


Fraction
Furlongs
Feet
Horse’s TimesFraction TimeFeet-Per-Second

#1 #2 #32 2 2
1,320 1,320
22.2 45.3 70.522.2 23.1 25.2
59.46 57.14
▲


Turn-Time
The “Turn-Time” for this horse in this race was 57.14 feet-per-second.


1,32052.38



Standing alone, the first and third fractions are not good indicators of a horse’s formor overall ability. Late running, non-contending, deep closers may well have the best3rd fraction figures, but no chance of finishing in-the-money. Early running non-contending horses may well have the top first fraction figures, but start losing groundduring the second fraction with nothing left to finish well. The first fraction is alsomore of a positional issue. Just about any horse can run fast for that short distance.These “one fraction wonders” are generally not good plays. The middle fraction,however, is a different story. It is sometimes referred to as the “hidden fraction”because it is not readily apparent to the public. It is also called the Turn-Time fractionbecause, in most races, it is run around the closing turn coming into the stretch run.
Pause: Turn-Time in ALL-Ways Software
We are going to pause a little bit at this point so we can look briefly at how Turn-Timeis presented in ALL-Ways Software. Even if you are not an ALL-Ways Softwarehandicapper, this brief pause will be helpful when, a little further down, we look at howbest to use Turn-Time in our handicapping
ALL-Ways software shows Turn-Time figures in two ways:

1. The Brohamer feet-per-second figures for all three fractions are shown on theALL-Ways “Brohamer Plus Handicapping Report”. This includes the secondfraction, which is the Turn-Time figure.
   
2. ALL-Ways Software also includes the velocity based Hall Pace and Speed Ratings.This includes the Hall Call One figure (the first fraction), the Hall Turn-Timefigure (the second fraction) and the Hall Final Fraction figure (the third fraction).These Hall Ratings are also presented on the ALL-Ways Brohamer PlusHandicapping Report. Note: The Hall Speed Ratings and the Hall Compound PaceRatings are also shown on the same report.
   

About the Hall Pace and Speed Figures
The Hall figures are also feet-per-second velocity based and go a step further thanconventional ratings. Specifically, the Hall figures use a ”Conservation of Energy” concept tonormalize how each horse’s past performance pace and speed figures would have been hadthe horse run the race at the same track, the exact distance and the surface of today’s race.The Hall figures are particularly powerful for determining how a horse is likely to perform if itis changing distance in today’s race. The Hall Ratings are also based on the same scale as theALL-Ways and BRIS Race Ratings. This makes it easy to determine how a horse’s pace andspeed figures compare to the pace and speed figure par times for today’s race.



Brohamer Turn-Time (2nd Fraction) may be something like 57.14 feet-per-second. The corresponding Hall Turn-Time figure may be something like 114. A horsewith a Hall Turn-Time rating of 114 has demonstrated its ability to run to the Turn-Time Par for Race Ratings of 114 and below. Please refer to ALL-Ways Newsletter #16for a complete description of Hall pace and speed figures.
Using Turn-Time in Our Handicapping
A Word of Caution
Turn-Time is NOT a good stand-alone handicapping factor. The highest Turn-Timefigure in a race may well belong to a deep closer that has no hope of finishing in-the-money. So, when handicapping a race, Turn-Time should always be considered alongwith other pace figures and/or other handicapping information as we discuss below.
Turn-Time: Evaluating Form
Quoting Tom Brohamer: “The ability to handle the turn in an efficient manner is acharacteristic of a fit horse.”
There are three things to look for to evaluate a horse’s form:

1. 1) Look for recent improvement in Turn-Time coupled with the running of a goodrace, which we define as an in-the-money finish or within 2 lengths of thewinner in sprints or within 3 lengths of the winner in routes.
   
2. 2) Look for recent improvement in Turn-Time coupled with an improved firstfraction rating (Brohamer First Fraction or Hall Call One).
   
3. 3) Look for recent improvement in Turn-Time coupled with an improved Early Pace(EP) rating. Early Pace is always measured from the gate to the 2nd call (4furlongs in sprints and 6 furlongs in routes). The Brohamer EP and Hall EP ratingsare all measured at the 2nd Call.
   

On the other side of the ledger, unless there is a valid excuse, downgrade horses withdeclining Turn-Time. A horse whose current form indicates an inability to maintain orimprove its position around the turn is a poor candidate to run a good race.
Turn-Time is a dependable indicator of form at all class levels. It is particularlypowerful and may well be the very best indicator of form at lower level tracks.

Turn-Time: Evaluating Ability


We will start this subject with a general “truth” about pace. Horses with a good pacefigure in only one of the three fractions are poor candidates to do well in the race. Youshould look for horses that have good figures in at least two of the three fractions. Farmore often than not, the two good pace fractions are contiguous. So, the realcontenders in a race will generally exhibit one of the two situations shown below.


First Fraction
Horse A GoodHorse B OK

Second FractionTurn-Time
GoodGood

Third Fraction
OKGood


Horse “A” is typical of a solid front running horse with an “E” or “EP” running style thatis capable of sustaining its pace through the turn. Here is another Tom Brohamerquote: “I know of no better bet in racing than a solid front running type capable ofdominating his rivals in the second fraction.”
Horse “B” above is typical for a solid late running horse with a “P” or “S” running style.It does not wait for the final fraction to make its move.
Another word of caution here: Be careful if you have to replace the “OK” with “bad” inthe third fraction for Horse A or the first fraction for Horse B. Horses with good firstand second fractions are good candidates to finish in-the-money provided they do nottypically “crater” in the final fraction. Horses with good second and third fractions aregood candidates to finish in-the-money provided they are within reasonable touch ofthe leaders at the end of the second fraction. This requires an “OK” first fraction.
There are two ways to identify “good” figures:

•  First, since pace is all about match-ups between horses in a race, “good” cansimply mean the horse has pace figures in the top 2 to 4 figures for all horses inthe race. Of course, you also do not want a significant unfavorable gapdisadvantage in the figures between the horse and the horses with higherfigures.
  
•  The second way to define “good”, and our personal choice, is to compare the Hallfigures to the Race Rating to see if the horse has demonstrated its’ ability to runto Par.
  
  
  
  
  Turn-Time: Handling Race Situations
  Let’s start with an example. Here are the Hall figures for three horses in a recent raceat Belmont. The race had a 114.8 ALL-Ways Race Rating.
  
  
  Horse AHorse BHorse C
  
  First Fraction
  112113106
  
  Second FractionTurn-Time
  114112110
  
  Third Fraction
  116111121
  
  
  Hall Pace Figures
  
  
  Note: These three horses were tied with the highest speed figure.
  One Hall pace rating point represents about 1/2 length. We can combine the first andsecond fractions to project the positions of the horses at the 2nd Call. Horse “A” willhave a short lead on Horse “B” at the 2nd Call (226 – 225 = 1, about 1/2 length).Horse “A” will have a big lead on Horse “C” (226 – 216 = 10, about 5 lengths). And,notice how Horse “A” is picking up momentum in the turn while Horse “B” is losingmomentum. Horse “C” is too far off the pace and waits too long to make its run. Horse“C” would need a better Turn-Time to catch Horse “A”. As expected, Horse “A” wonthis race and paid $9.30 for the win.
  Multiple Early Runners: With multiple early pacesetters (“E” and “EP” horses), use Turn-Time to determine which of the early runners will be able to hold or improve theirposition in the turn and which will be losing their momentum against the other pacesetters. Those that lose momentum in the turn will most likely not figure in the race.Turn-Time is a particularly powerful tool for separating two closely matched horseswith “E” running styles. Here is another “truth”: An early runner that will face a lot ofpace pressure had better have a solid Turn-Time rating or it will be eliminated beforeentering the stretch.
  Lone Pacesetter: When evaluating a lone pacesetter, the question is simply whether thehorse will hold its’ advantage going into the stretch with a good Turn-Timeperformance or will it be giving up the advantage it gained in the first fraction. If it isgiving it up its early pace advantage, the horse can safely be eliminated. Statedanother way: A horse with a solid Early Pace advantage at the 2nd Call (the end of thesecond fraction) should be downgraded if it has a substandard Turn-Time. This isbecause its high EP rating came primarily from a strong first fraction followed by apoor second fraction. It has no momentum entering the stretch.
  
  
  
  

Late Runners: Turn-Time is very useful for evaluating late runners as well. This worksparticularly well for turf races and long routes. Turn-Time will show you which of theselate runners start there move in the turn and have good momentum for the stretchdrive. If these runners are in touch with the field at the 2nd Call (end of the secondfraction), they are solid candidates for an in-the-money finish.
Turn-Time: Some Spot Plays.

•  Look for horses that have good first Fraction and Turn-Time figures and poorthird fraction figures that are getting Lasix for the first time in today’s race.
  
•  Look for horses that had a good first fraction, poor Turn-Time and a good thirdfraction in their last race. These are the kinds of pace figures that are typical of“V” pattern horses. These are horses that did well early in the race, backed off inthe turn and came on strong again in the final fraction. These “V” pattern horsesare a favorite angle play of a lot of horseplayers.
  
•  A horse taking a significant class rise today and that has a Turn-Time at orabove Par should be competitive. It can probably handle the class rise. If thehorse has a below Par Turn-Time, you can generally expect it to have trouble atthe higher class level.
  
•  Turn-Time is a good handicapping factor to evaluate whether a horse coming offits maiden win in its last race will be competitive in today’s race. Again, if thehorse’s Turn-Time is at or above Par, it will probable be competitive today.
  Summary
  Turn-Time, when used with other pace and/or other handicapping information is avery useful tool for assessing a horse’s current form, for identifying its capabilities andfor evaluating its likely performance in today’s race. Perhaps most important, addingTurn-Time to your handicapping arsenal will help in finding higher paying horses thatthe public misses. That is the power of the “hidden fraction”.
  
  
  
  
  Pace Handicapping with Brohamer FiguresThe Wrap-Up
  Part 1: “Velocity Based Pace Figures”: Part 1 explains how to calculate each horse’s averagefeet-per-second velocity for each of the 3 Internal Fractions of a race and how to use thesevalues to calculate the Brohamer Compound Pace Ratings as shown below. Part 1 also explainshow to use these Brohamer pace figures in your handicapping.
  
  
  Internal Race Fractions
  Fraction #1:
  Fraction #2:Fraction #3:
  
  Sprints
  gate to 2 furlongs
  2 furlongs to 4 furlongs4 furlongs to finish
  
  Routes
  gate to 4 furlongs
  4 furlongs to 6 furlongs6 furlongs to finish
  
  
  ∙ Early Pace (EP) Pace Rating = Second Call distance/Second Call time
  ∙ Sustained Pace (SP) Rating = (EP + 3rd fraction)/2
  ∙ Average Pace (AP) Rating for sprints = (1st fraction + 2nd fraction + 3rd fraction)/3∙ Average Pace (AP) Rating for routes = (EP+ SP)/2
  ∙ Factor X (FX) Rating for sprints only = (1st fraction + 3rd fraction)/2
  Part 2: “Brohamer Track Decision Model”: Part 2 introduces a unique way to look at the pacedemands (“Pace Bias”) for each type of race run at a track that is based on the Brohamerconcepts of Early Pace (EP), Average Pace (AP) and Sustained Pace (SP). The bias is shown in the“Track Decision Model”. Part 2 then explains how to determine how well a horse’s Brohamer EP,AP and SP rankings line up with these pace demands. Here is an example of a Decision Model:
  Track Decision Models for One-Mile Dirt Routes at Calder Race Course
  Part 3: “Percent Early” Energy Distribution: Part 3 Introduces the innovative Sartin Methodologyconcept of determining a horse’s preferred “Energy Distribution” pattern and evaluating howthe pattern matches the energy distribution demands for each race type run at the track. Thisis referred to in ALL-Ways Software as “%Early. Here is the %Early formula:
  Total Energy = EP + Third Fraction%Early = EP / Total Energy
  The %Early Zone at Calder Race Course for One-Mile Dirt Routes
  
  
  
  
  

  Track	EP	AP	SP	FX	Total
  Win Model	4	3	2	n/a	9
  Place Model	4	4	5	n/a	13

  	Low %Early	Median %Early	High %Early
  Win Horses	50.9%	52.0%	52.9%
  Place Horses	51.4%	52.3%	53.3%

  
  
  
  Part 4: “Turn-Time”: The fourth and final part of this series of articles covering the innovativeand powerful Brohamer and Sartin pace handicapping methodologies explores the “power ofthe hidden fraction”, which is the 2nd Fraction in a race and referred to as “Turn-Time”.
  Sample Brohamer Figures for a Six Furlong Race
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  Fraction
  
  
  #1
  
  
  #2
  
  
  #3
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  Furlongs
  
  
  2
  
  
  2
  
  
  2
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  Feet
  
  
  1,320
  
  
  1,320
  
  
  1,320
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  Horse’s Times
  
  
  22.2
  
  
  45.3
  
  
  70.5
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  Fraction Time
  
  
  22.2
  
  
  23.1
  
  
  25.2
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  Feet-Per-Second
  
  
  59.46
  
  
  57.14
  
  
  52.38
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  ▲Turn-Time
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  Early Pace (EP)58.28
  
  Average Pace (AP) Sustained Pace (SP)56.33 55.33
  Early Pace (EP) = 2640/45.3 = 58.28Total Energy = 58.28 + 52.38 = 110.66%Early =58.28/110.66 = 52.67%
  Turn-Time = 57.14 feet-per-second
  
  Factor X (FX)55.92
  
  
  
  Using ALL-Ways Software to Handicap with the Brohamer/Sartin Concepts
  We are grateful indeed to both Howard Sartin and to Tom Brohamer for giving FrandsenPublishing their permission to include their innovative pace methodology in ALL-WaysHandicapping Software. The first big advantage of this for ALL-Ways handicappers is that theydo not have to make any of the calculations. ALL-Ways Software automatically makes all theBrohamer pace figure calculations for every horse and maintains the required pace biasmodels, both the “Track Decision Model” and the “%Early Energy Distribution Model”, for everytype of race run at the track. And, all of this is presented in a simple summary format on theALL-Ways “Brohamer Plus” handicapping report. The “Brohamer Plus Report” also includes thevelocity based Hall pace and speed figures mentioned earlier in this article. The information isalso included as parts of other standard ALL-Ways handicapping reports, including the “Pace-Line Report”, the “Search Report”, the “All Pace Report” and the “Spot Play/Final ProcessReport”.
  
  
  
  
  

 

[Lt1]

Just remember that turn time is not a stand alone factor but it does give an overview of what starting to happen to the front runners, pressers, and closers. Keep these numbers in the back of your mind when capping.
dist %of race run at the 2nd call.
6f 66.6
6.5f 62.o
7.0f 57.0
8.0f 75.0
8.5f 71.0
9.0f 66.0
Handicappers need to know how far behind at the 2nd call a horse can be & still win

 

[redhook206]

I'm currently reading "Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century" by Steve Davidowitz. Solid read so far!

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

I'm currently reading "Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century" by Steve Davidowitz. Solid read so far!

Very good book

 

[Prof_Factor]

This would be a good topic in your forum.

When the Sartin Methodology first came out (ions ago), I bought the book, read it cover to cover, went to a seminar on the subject. Never understood the reason for the ft/sec conversion. IMHO, they left a lot to be desired. Never gave it another look after trying it. Maybe they've evolved over the years. I don't know. The Hall part wasn't included.

I don't use anybody's system but do use inner fractions, adjusted by track variants and turn configurations.
My pace numbers remain in time formats.

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Prof once I get back I'll be fine tuning our forum...then we will make it one of the best of course with your input & Lt1

 

[Backstretch]

The problem with pace handicapping is that everything is based on faulty information to begin with..using figures based on a chart callers estimate as to where horses were at any given point in a race is a guess-timate at best. Now that a lot of tracks have trackus and horses are timed electronically one would think that chalk would be winning much more than they are.

 

[Lt1]

Backstretch I've have been using Sartin since 1990. Your worry about chart caller errors etc was addressed by simply applying what info you have available. I don't worry about it at all since the Sartin program I use works just fine for me. Pace indeed does make the race s well as knowing what runing styles are winning at the tracks one plays at each distance.

 

[Backstretch]

Well, what I was getting at was the problem of splitting hairs when using rough estimates to begin with..

 

[Lt1]

Whatever one uses is fine if it works for them. Speed ratings were all the rage at one time but believe it or not the DRF sr + tv were better then Beyer sr even though they now are based on 3yr best times. Doc Sartin had pointed that back in the early 90s wen DRF sr were based on track records and Sport Stats a Vegas info group challenged that and conducted their own study which indeed revealed that Docs statement was in fact true.

 

[Backstretch]

Backstretch I've have been using Sartin since 1990. Your worry about chart caller errors etc was addressed by simply applying what info you have available. I don't worry about it at all since the Sartin program I use works just fine for me. Pace indeed does make the race s well as knowing what runing styles are winning at the tracks one plays at each distance.

This I agree with...I was into pace and was making my own track variants back in the fifties before DRF had a variant...the problem I could never resolve concerning pace was threefold...#1 is that pace may be determined by the class of horses...#2 is that it may be determined by the track condition and #3 it may be determined by jockey strategy...I found I was always getting lost in the weeds so over the years I gravitated away from all figures for the most part so long as the horse in question is in the ball park..the question I like answered more than any other is, who's going to run good today?

 

[Lt1]

That's the 64 thousand dollar question. The best pace capper I knew was the late Jim The Hat Bradshaw. He could predict the pace of the race at all calls within 1/5 of a second almost every race and the proceed to match each horse against each other. The mainstream guys used to call it voodoo.