turbozed's UFC 86 Underdog plays

[turbozed]

Just making it official:

Marcus Aurelio (+275) v. Tyson Griffin

If Aurelio comes out with the same intensity as he has recently, he has a great chance of catching Griffin. At these odds, it's tough to pass up.

2 units on Maximums


Gleison Tibau (+170) v. Joe Stevenson

Tibau is a huge LW and Stevenson just came off a devastating loss. Tibau's takedowns are damn good and he has a good chance of controlling this fight.

1 unit on Tibau

Denis Siver (+175) v. Melvin Guillard

Siver is a tough cookie and will spend a lot of the time on his back early on. He's got the grit to weather the storm and sink in a submission of some sort against the sub-prone Guillard later on. Guillard's got talent but one wonders where his focus and mind is at.

0.5 units on Siver


Good luck everyone.

Posted plays: 1-1 +1.7

 

[Uno]

personally i am not much of a believer in Griffin... never been impressed so i like that one... i expect Stevenson to take care of business tonight. that guy has monster potential and who cares that he lost to BJ for crying out loud if anything that gets you some value here.

and i don't want any piece of Guillard either for or against. He just has too much potential and upside... with time he should destroy guys like Siver.

for a dog i like Forrest by decision at +600 and better. If he wins it will be because Rampage gasses after 2 as he has been known to do.

 

[Rambo]

for a dog i like Forrest by decision at +600 and better. If he wins it will be because Rampage gasses after 2 as he has been known to do.

where are you finding forrest at +600?

 

[Uno]

forrest by decision prop.

 

[turbozed]

It's at BetUS. I have tiny amounts at Forrest rd 4 (+2000) and rd 5 (+2500) on the same prop....just in case

 

[Rambo]

oh i use sportsbook.com. they dont seem to have prob bets for ufc.

 

[Uno]

i played it at bodog... you should both stop playing where you are playing... horrible books.

http://therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=596198

 

[turbozed]

I just made an account at BetUS to bet Florian at -130. They had this fight a week or so before everyone else.

I realize they are rated poorly at SBR and I warn people myself. Thanks for doing the same but I don't expect any problems as long as I don't have too much in there.

 

[Rambo]

I just made an account at BetUS to bet Florian at -130. They had this fight a week or so before everyone else.

I realize they are rated poorly at SBR and I warn people myself. Thanks for doing the same but I don't expect any problems as long as I don't have too much in there.

hey turbo, i dont see the prob bets over at betus. do you have to be logged into to view em? all i can find is the current odds on the fight.

 

[sphincter]

haven`t posted around here in a very long time....

i think,balls to the wall,that griffin will be a little to strong for aurelio....but,i also took aurelio at +280.....i just think theres some value there....and griffin`s been in some close fights that he maybe shouldn`t have gotten decisions in.....not expecting a win here,but it behooves a "long in the tooth" aurelio to "put up" in this one...



also took cole miller small...just never bought into the gurgel hype...i almost kinda wish that gurgel would win convincingly so that the ufc,who apparently loves him,would stick him in with a legit,experienced contender(say,clay guida)....and if they`re fooling themselves about gurgel,we could make some jack on a favorable line(maybe guida anywhere from -200 on down)...that line may be a bit of fantasy on my part...

i`m also gonna play almeida small...hate to go against the hot hand...the guy with momentum...that and almeida`s inactivity make this a sketchy,hard to rationalize play...more of a gut based on styles....

all small...just some fun plays to have a little action going...

see some "real" possibilities on the horizon for the cards on the 19th...

g.l.,fellas...

 

[turbozed]

hey turbo, i dont see the prob bets over at betus. do you have to be logged into to view em? all i can find is the current odds on the fight.

They're only available in the new "Sportsbook 2.0" on the front sportsbook page.

 

[turbozed]

haven`t posted around here in a very long time....

i think,balls to the wall,that griffin will be a little to strong for aurelio....but,i also took aurelio at +280.....i just think theres some value there....and griffin`s been in some close fights that he maybe shouldn`t have gotten decisions in.....not expecting a win here,but it behooves a "long in the tooth" aurelio to "put up" in this one...



also took cole miller small...just never bought into the gurgel hype...i almost kinda wish that gurgel would win convincingly so that the ufc,who apparently loves him,would stick him in with a legit,experienced contender(say,clay guida)....and if they`re fooling themselves about gurgel,we could make some jack on a favorable line(maybe guida anywhere from -200 on down)...that line may be a bit of fantasy on my part...

i`m also gonna play almeida small...hate to go against the hot hand...the guy with momentum...that and almeida`s inactivity make this a sketchy,hard to rationalize play...more of a gut based on styles....

all small...just some fun plays to have a little action going...

see some "real" possibilities on the horizon for the cards on the 19th...

g.l.,fellas...

Thanks for weighing in here. I also think Griffin has a slight advantage here, but it's more coinflip than +280 so I will take the +280.

I feel the exact same way about Almeida. I really want to pick him here but I think one fight against a guy like Yundt doesn't tell us anything.

And yes, -200 guida would be a bit of fantasy considering the public's distaste for Gurgel and love for Guida. We won't ever see any value in a fight like that.

 

[sphincter]

off topic...apologize in advance for fouling your ufc thread....but,on tonights holt/tores rematch,i have a strange feeling that somebody may be taking a nap...

a bit of a tough call...but,both were badly buzzed in the first go round....and both can punch...

holt inside at +229...torres at an incredible(imo)+404......

don`t have to take a very big risk with those odds...

i`m not having an epiphany over anything this weekend so i`m just having some fun...

i do feel like i caught a bargain with tony thompson at +500 and change next weekend...

no need to respond if you aren`t a boxing afficionado...i scouted the other threads to see who sounded cogent on the fight game....

you seem like the guy....thats a compliment...

g.l. tonight....

 

[sphincter]

holt by 1st round k.o.......with the help of a nice lil` headbutt.....

but,i`ll take it.....

:>Grin>

 

[turbozed]

0-3 -3.5 units

worst event i've ever had. time to lick my wounds and start over.

 

[Mr_Mark]

man i did bad too turbozed

not a good day of betting for ol mark