Virginia -7, Virginia -4 first half - Two bets on this team tonight. Cavaliers have been struggling bad as of late on the road and I think that may have this line a little deflated. I like a couple things about this game. First, lets go over some numbers. Virginia is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country with a very slow style of pace. They sit at 72nd in the country for ppg with 72.9 but that is because they average 19 seconds with the ball every offensive possession. Due to this though, they are 8th in the country in fg% at 49.7 and 15th in the country shooting the 3 at 40.4%. They are also very sound from the ft line at 75% which I really like. On the defensive side Virginia is 6th in the country at ppg allowed only allowing 61.4. They are 148th in fg% allowed and 255th in defending the 3 but they are 1st in the nation in defensive rebounding.
Wake Forest comes in with a defense that ranks 317th in country allowing 79.1 ppg, 228th in fg% allowed and 165th defending the 3. They are also 210th in defensive rebounding. Offensively WF sits at 144th in the nation in ppg scoring 75.3. They are 192nd in fg%, and 270th shooting the 3 and shoot ft's very poorly at 66.9% coming in at 262nd. They are 62nd in rebounding offensively.
Lets discuss a couple things that stand out to me. The only reason that Virginias defensive fg% and 3% are so bad is because of the style of defense they play. They play a "pack line" defense where they all favor the middle of the court and take away penetrations. They are one of slowest playing teams in the country like I said and are capable of forcing the other team to use the entire shot clock many times. They take away the "easy" shots in the key and force teams to beat them with low percentage outside shots the entire game. This is the only reason that those numbers are higher because they give up more open 3 looks or force more outside shots. This also allows Virginia to be the best in the nation rebounding the ball on defense because they have the lane packed after a shot goes up. They play slow and focus on what they do and don't create many turnovers. This could be a problem for a couple reasons for WF. First, they are very poor shooters from 3 at 270th like I said. Second, they get a lot of their production from inside with Devin Thomas. If he doesn't get it the first time he is also very good at rebounding on offense and getting put backs, which tonight against a team that takes away the key and out rebounds everyone because of it could spell trouble for the Deacons. If they are able to maintain Thomas and force WF to shoot their norm from outside this game could be a blowout. Third, WF is not a very fast paced team themselves and when they try to go up tempo their young point guards tend to turn the ball over and make bad decisions, which won't fair well either way for them if they are turning it over or if they are forced to play slow and into Virginias style. Last, Virginia knows they have been starting slow on the road and need to come out of the gates with better play early in the game. They have lost 3 road games in a row and tonight is a good opportunity for them to get back on track I feel. WF has lost four in a row as well and 6 or the last 7 so they are having their own struggles. They are in a the midst of a brutal schedule where they are on their third ranked team in a one week span. The game being postponed from last night was nice and gave UV a night to rest. Last year, when UV came to town, the lineups were very similar minus the guards for WF but UV didn't have Parrentes either and UV blew them out 70-34. The road woes stop tonight!
Good luck guys!
Wake Forest comes in with a defense that ranks 317th in country allowing 79.1 ppg, 228th in fg% allowed and 165th defending the 3. They are also 210th in defensive rebounding. Offensively WF sits at 144th in the nation in ppg scoring 75.3. They are 192nd in fg%, and 270th shooting the 3 and shoot ft's very poorly at 66.9% coming in at 262nd. They are 62nd in rebounding offensively.
Lets discuss a couple things that stand out to me. The only reason that Virginias defensive fg% and 3% are so bad is because of the style of defense they play. They play a "pack line" defense where they all favor the middle of the court and take away penetrations. They are one of slowest playing teams in the country like I said and are capable of forcing the other team to use the entire shot clock many times. They take away the "easy" shots in the key and force teams to beat them with low percentage outside shots the entire game. This is the only reason that those numbers are higher because they give up more open 3 looks or force more outside shots. This also allows Virginia to be the best in the nation rebounding the ball on defense because they have the lane packed after a shot goes up. They play slow and focus on what they do and don't create many turnovers. This could be a problem for a couple reasons for WF. First, they are very poor shooters from 3 at 270th like I said. Second, they get a lot of their production from inside with Devin Thomas. If he doesn't get it the first time he is also very good at rebounding on offense and getting put backs, which tonight against a team that takes away the key and out rebounds everyone because of it could spell trouble for the Deacons. If they are able to maintain Thomas and force WF to shoot their norm from outside this game could be a blowout. Third, WF is not a very fast paced team themselves and when they try to go up tempo their young point guards tend to turn the ball over and make bad decisions, which won't fair well either way for them if they are turning it over or if they are forced to play slow and into Virginias style. Last, Virginia knows they have been starting slow on the road and need to come out of the gates with better play early in the game. They have lost 3 road games in a row and tonight is a good opportunity for them to get back on track I feel. WF has lost four in a row as well and 6 or the last 7 so they are having their own struggles. They are in a the midst of a brutal schedule where they are on their third ranked team in a one week span. The game being postponed from last night was nice and gave UV a night to rest. Last year, when UV came to town, the lineups were very similar minus the guards for WF but UV didn't have Parrentes either and UV blew them out 70-34. The road woes stop tonight!
Good luck guys!
