Split yesterday. Dream Weaver got the best of 85% of the people in this world. Here are some leans...
Reds +140:
Simply put this game would be a value play. You got two rookies, one with 2 games here and 1 with 3 games.. Reds are 2-1 when Bailey pitches, Philly is 2-0 when Kendrick pitches. Bailey I think is the better pitching prospect of the two, I am sure most would agree but he is on the shitter team. I just find it hard to believe that Bailey would be a doggie to Kendrick at home if you took off .30 or .40 he would be +110/+100.
Bailey: 2-0(2-1) 4.00era, 18ip, 14h, 7k, 11bb, 1.39whip, .355obp
Kendrick: 1-0 (2-0) 4.50era, 12ip, 11h, 5k, 3bb, 1.17whip, .300obp
Now the drawbacks here is that Bailey from what I understand is a fly ball pitcher, from the looks of it he has also struggled with his control.. These are two things that can get you into trouble real fast...He is yet to give up a HR yet but that can change easily in Philly's little park. His GB:FB ratio is 1.14 overall. Kendrick has a 1.58 GB:FB ratio and a better overall whip and obp. Bullpen wise, these two are close to a wash. Philly is a little better at home than Reds on the road.
Rockies +130:
This is like a Rockies are due to win kind of though. They are 16-5 in their last 21 as an underdog.. Pitching wise if you want to give the Cubs the advantage, its very slight. Rodrigo might have found a home in the NL just as Lilly has where he is away from the AL East and can have an easier time pitching. Rockies are 7-1 when Lopez pitches and the Cubs just 6-9 when Lilly starts. Lilly has pitched very well his L3.
Lopez this yr: 4-0, 2.93era, 8g, 46ip, 50h, 8bb, 25k, 1.26whip, .310obp
Lopez L3: 2-0, 2.89era, 18.2ip, 21h, 3bb, 8k, 1.29whip, .308obp
Lilly L3: 1-0, 3.45era, 15.2ip, 12h, 2bb, 15k, 0.89whip, .250obp
Lilly Home: 3-3, 2.95era, 55ip, 44h, 9bb, 44k, .96whip, .256obp
Are the Rockies going to wake up or keep sliding? This is now a collision of streaks, Rockies L4-Cubs W4.. Cubs hitting RHP pretty good as of late and the Rockies struggle a little more with LHP than they do w/ RHP. Still even after today, the Cubs are a below average home team and their bullpen is worse than the Rockies.
off to bed, a lot of this could change in the morning.
Other leans = Cards/Mets Over 9, Dodgers -105, Yankees/Orioles U9, Jays -105, Royals +159, WSux/Drays U9 -105
Reds +140:
Simply put this game would be a value play. You got two rookies, one with 2 games here and 1 with 3 games.. Reds are 2-1 when Bailey pitches, Philly is 2-0 when Kendrick pitches. Bailey I think is the better pitching prospect of the two, I am sure most would agree but he is on the shitter team. I just find it hard to believe that Bailey would be a doggie to Kendrick at home if you took off .30 or .40 he would be +110/+100.
Bailey: 2-0(2-1) 4.00era, 18ip, 14h, 7k, 11bb, 1.39whip, .355obp
Kendrick: 1-0 (2-0) 4.50era, 12ip, 11h, 5k, 3bb, 1.17whip, .300obp
Now the drawbacks here is that Bailey from what I understand is a fly ball pitcher, from the looks of it he has also struggled with his control.. These are two things that can get you into trouble real fast...He is yet to give up a HR yet but that can change easily in Philly's little park. His GB:FB ratio is 1.14 overall. Kendrick has a 1.58 GB:FB ratio and a better overall whip and obp. Bullpen wise, these two are close to a wash. Philly is a little better at home than Reds on the road.
Rockies +130:
This is like a Rockies are due to win kind of though. They are 16-5 in their last 21 as an underdog.. Pitching wise if you want to give the Cubs the advantage, its very slight. Rodrigo might have found a home in the NL just as Lilly has where he is away from the AL East and can have an easier time pitching. Rockies are 7-1 when Lopez pitches and the Cubs just 6-9 when Lilly starts. Lilly has pitched very well his L3.
Lopez this yr: 4-0, 2.93era, 8g, 46ip, 50h, 8bb, 25k, 1.26whip, .310obp
Lopez L3: 2-0, 2.89era, 18.2ip, 21h, 3bb, 8k, 1.29whip, .308obp
Lilly L3: 1-0, 3.45era, 15.2ip, 12h, 2bb, 15k, 0.89whip, .250obp
Lilly Home: 3-3, 2.95era, 55ip, 44h, 9bb, 44k, .96whip, .256obp
Are the Rockies going to wake up or keep sliding? This is now a collision of streaks, Rockies L4-Cubs W4.. Cubs hitting RHP pretty good as of late and the Rockies struggle a little more with LHP than they do w/ RHP. Still even after today, the Cubs are a below average home team and their bullpen is worse than the Rockies.
off to bed, a lot of this could change in the morning.
Other leans = Cards/Mets Over 9, Dodgers -105, Yankees/Orioles U9, Jays -105, Royals +159, WSux/Drays U9 -105