Miller locks
7:05 pm est nba
orlando magic vs. Toronto raptors
pick: Toronto raptors -11.5 (-108)
risk: 11 units
8:05 pm est nba
brooklyn nets vs. Philadelphia 76ers
pick: Philadelphia 76ers -8 (-105)
risk: 11 units
10:30 pm est nba
oklahoma city thunder vs. Portland trail blazers
pick: Portland trail blazers -3 (-108)
risk: 11 units
7:05 pm est nba
orlando magic vs. Toronto raptors
pick: Toronto raptors -11.5 (-108)
risk: 11 units
8:05 pm est nba
brooklyn nets vs. Philadelphia 76ers
pick: Philadelphia 76ers -8 (-105)
risk: 11 units
10:30 pm est nba
oklahoma city thunder vs. Portland trail blazers
pick: Portland trail blazers -3 (-108)
risk: 11 units
DR. CHUCK BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (505) Orlando Magic at (506) Toronto Raptors
Date/Time: Apr 23 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: 1H Total Under 105.0 (-115)
View Analysis
Analysis 106, 90, 93, 100. These are the 4 first half totals so far in this series...almost exclusively with a Vegas 1H half total right in the 106 to 107 range. I understand it's a tough cap to set that line and if it was set at a more appropriate for this series in the 99 to 100 range the danger of liability would be much too high on the Over. Under plays in general will be a contrarian side as public bets are very rarely going to be on an Under, especially a first half total. If a bet is coming in from Joe money it will be on the Over as they want to see exciting up and down scoring...ipso fscto, built in value...which is why this was merely 105.5 at open. Orlando was at the bottom of the league with regard to pace...especially on the road with just 100 possessions per game (Toronto at 104 middle of the pack)...and in this series both have trended downward to 96 possessions each. Neither team generated any kind of extra possessions on offense of note in the regular season...and in this series the advantage is all for the Raptors...via TOs and offensive boards they have a 4-0 edge on offensive extra chances...I feel this aides our cause with the home team who is also looking to close out the series. Both teams imposing their defensive will on the opponent in this series has also caused each team's effective possession ratio to drop by several points...Magic down from 96ish to sub-90 while Toronto was near the league bottom at 95ish and has dropped from there....I am not saying this will be an ugly slog of a game...but if the series has taught us anything it should be first to 100 takes this contest. This game also features the league's 3rd best defensive efficiency rating for the home Raptors and the league's 5th best defensive efficiency rating on the road for the Magic. Finally, for the total we chose here...avoiding the full game in a closeout which can devolve into an ugly (almost unnecessary) foul/FT fest at the end...Orlando is the NBA's top team at avoiding committing fouls while ALSO being the NBA's top team at not creating foul opportunities on their offensive possessions. Bonus spots in the 1st and 2nd quarters should be hard to come by...and Toronto has turned the Magic in this series into the worst offensive team (if expanded out to the league) with regard to turnovers...up to 18% of possessions. These 2 should feel each other out and be in the 40s at the end of the 1st quarter and hopefully with minimal scoring with the clock stopped...there simply won't be enough time or desire to change how this series has played out thus far...and a number within a point of what they've hung the first 4 game of the series is AMAZING VALUE!
Game: (505) Orlando Magic at (506) Toronto Raptors
Date/Time: Apr 23 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: 1H Total Under 105.0 (-115)
View Analysis
Analysis 106, 90, 93, 100. These are the 4 first half totals so far in this series...almost exclusively with a Vegas 1H half total right in the 106 to 107 range. I understand it's a tough cap to set that line and if it was set at a more appropriate for this series in the 99 to 100 range the danger of liability would be much too high on the Over. Under plays in general will be a contrarian side as public bets are very rarely going to be on an Under, especially a first half total. If a bet is coming in from Joe money it will be on the Over as they want to see exciting up and down scoring...ipso fscto, built in value...which is why this was merely 105.5 at open. Orlando was at the bottom of the league with regard to pace...especially on the road with just 100 possessions per game (Toronto at 104 middle of the pack)...and in this series both have trended downward to 96 possessions each. Neither team generated any kind of extra possessions on offense of note in the regular season...and in this series the advantage is all for the Raptors...via TOs and offensive boards they have a 4-0 edge on offensive extra chances...I feel this aides our cause with the home team who is also looking to close out the series. Both teams imposing their defensive will on the opponent in this series has also caused each team's effective possession ratio to drop by several points...Magic down from 96ish to sub-90 while Toronto was near the league bottom at 95ish and has dropped from there....I am not saying this will be an ugly slog of a game...but if the series has taught us anything it should be first to 100 takes this contest. This game also features the league's 3rd best defensive efficiency rating for the home Raptors and the league's 5th best defensive efficiency rating on the road for the Magic. Finally, for the total we chose here...avoiding the full game in a closeout which can devolve into an ugly (almost unnecessary) foul/FT fest at the end...Orlando is the NBA's top team at avoiding committing fouls while ALSO being the NBA's top team at not creating foul opportunities on their offensive possessions. Bonus spots in the 1st and 2nd quarters should be hard to come by...and Toronto has turned the Magic in this series into the worst offensive team (if expanded out to the league) with regard to turnovers...up to 18% of possessions. These 2 should feel each other out and be in the 40s at the end of the 1st quarter and hopefully with minimal scoring with the clock stopped...there simply won't be enough time or desire to change how this series has played out thus far...and a number within a point of what they've hung the first 4 game of the series is AMAZING VALUE!
MLB(Bob Balfe)
8:40 PM EST
Rotation #911-912
Nationals -135 over Rockies
Corbin/Hoffman
Colorado is not a good team when facing left handed pitching and on top of that will be starting Jeff Hoffman who is not part of their regular rotation. Hoffman is 0-2 this year with a 14.00 ERA in Triple A Ball. What do you think his numbers are going to be like at the pro level? Washington should bust this game wide open and have it in the bag before the 5[SUP]th[/SUP] inning. Take the Nationals.
8:40 PM EST
Rotation #911-912
Nationals -135 over Rockies
Corbin/Hoffman
Colorado is not a good team when facing left handed pitching and on top of that will be starting Jeff Hoffman who is not part of their regular rotation. Hoffman is 0-2 this year with a 14.00 ERA in Triple A Ball. What do you think his numbers are going to be like at the pro level? Washington should bust this game wide open and have it in the bag before the 5[SUP]th[/SUP] inning. Take the Nationals.
