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Tuesday Service Play Thread 11/05/2019
- Thread starter BuzzKill
- Start date
Miller locks
7:00 pm est ncaab
western illinois vs. Indiana
pick: Western illinois +21 (-112)
risk: 11 units
8:00 pm est ncaab
old dominion vs. Northern iowa
pick: Northern iowa -4.5 (-113)
risk: 11 units
8:00 pm est ncaab
north dakota st vs. Kansas state
pick: North dakota st +11.5 (-109)
risk: 11 units
8:30 pm est ncaab
georgia tech vs. Nc state
pick: Georgia tech +7.5 (-108)
risk: 11 units
9:05 pm est nba
miami heat vs. Denver nuggets
pick: Denver nuggets -4.5 (-108)
risk: 11 units
7:00 pm est ncaab
western illinois vs. Indiana
pick: Western illinois +21 (-112)
risk: 11 units
8:00 pm est ncaab
old dominion vs. Northern iowa
pick: Northern iowa -4.5 (-113)
risk: 11 units
8:00 pm est ncaab
north dakota st vs. Kansas state
pick: North dakota st +11.5 (-109)
risk: 11 units
8:30 pm est ncaab
georgia tech vs. Nc state
pick: Georgia tech +7.5 (-108)
risk: 11 units
9:05 pm est nba
miami heat vs. Denver nuggets
pick: Denver nuggets -4.5 (-108)
risk: 11 units
Bob Balfe
NCAA Basketball
7:00 PM EST
Rotation #687-688
Kansas -2 over Duke
Duke enters another season highly ranked and with a new stud freshman class. I am not sure this current class can live up to what Williamson, Reddish and Barrett did last year, but time will tell. The Blue Devils forwards on this seasons roster are just not as good. For Duke standards this is a pretty experienced team considering last year they threw freshman right into the fire and their talent was off the charts. Bill Self does not have as many one and done players like Coach K has. You can argue about both approaches, but I think it would be better for the game to see Juniors and Seniors playing in March opposed to young guys with NBA Money on the line. The Jayhawks have experience on the roster at the guard position and should just out early against a new rotation of Duke players. Both teams will have growing pains and both teams will be right in the conversation in Mid-March. Kansas has a little bit more proven firepower. Duke doesn’t have the three point shooting that can expose this shaky defense. Take the Jayhawks.
NCAA Basketball
7:00 PM EST
Rotation #687-688
Kansas -2 over Duke
Duke enters another season highly ranked and with a new stud freshman class. I am not sure this current class can live up to what Williamson, Reddish and Barrett did last year, but time will tell. The Blue Devils forwards on this seasons roster are just not as good. For Duke standards this is a pretty experienced team considering last year they threw freshman right into the fire and their talent was off the charts. Bill Self does not have as many one and done players like Coach K has. You can argue about both approaches, but I think it would be better for the game to see Juniors and Seniors playing in March opposed to young guys with NBA Money on the line. The Jayhawks have experience on the roster at the guard position and should just out early against a new rotation of Duke players. Both teams will have growing pains and both teams will be right in the conversation in Mid-March. Kansas has a little bit more proven firepower. Duke doesn’t have the three point shooting that can expose this shaky defense. Take the Jayhawks.
RALPH MICHAELS
BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (621) George Washington at (622) Towson
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 7:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: George Washington 6.0 (-107)
View Analysis
#621 4* George Washington +6 Towson 7 PM
Two teams that finished last season even and I have George Washington as the better team to start this year. GW returns 7 of their top 9 scorers including 3 starters (compared to 2 for Towson) and gets back a 27-game starter from 2017-18 who only played the first 7 games LY before getting injured. I like new HC Christian who took a Siena team that was picked for last finished second in the NEC LY.
Game: (643) San Antonio Roadrunners at (644) Oklahoma
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 8:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: San Antonio Roadrunners 13.5 (-108)
View Analysis
The remaining 4 plays for a total of 5 will be posted by 1 PM ET/ 10 AM PT
#643 3% UTSA + 13.5 Oklahoma 8 PM -
Going into Oklahoma is tough but UTSA has the guards to do it. The Sooners are a young team as they have only one senior, who avg’d 11 PPG and he is out with a one-game suspension. UTSA has both guards back as returning starters and both made the All-CUSA team and are the highest scoring backcourt duo in the country. UTSA coach Steve Henson played for Kruger at Kansas St and was an assistant under him from 2011-2016 so I don’t see an embarrassing blowout in the offing,
Game: (631) UT Rio Grande Valley at (632) South Dakota State
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 8:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: UT Rio Grande Valley 5.0 (-110)
View Analysis
#631 4* UT Rio Grande Valley (UTRGV) +5 South Dakota St 8 PM
The WAC can play basketball and this RGV squad has gone from 10 to 15 to 20 wins LY under HC Hill including going 8-7 SU on the road and 11-2 ATS as an AD. The Vaqueros play a pressing D and were 4th in the NCAA in turnovers forced per game. Javon Levi is the glue and he was a finalist or defensive player of the year. South Dakota St lost 3x Summit League POY in Mike Daum, lost their HC to UNLV and returns only 1 starter and 30% of minutes played.
Game: (647) North Dakota St at (648) Kansas State
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 8:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: North Dakota St 12.0 (-110)
View Analysis
#647 3* North Dakota St +12 Kansas St 8 PM
Losing players like Brown, Stokes, and Wade is tough on a program and even tougher on KSt who was third last in recruiting in the conference. The Wildcats are also missing some depth with one back-up suspended and two injured meaning frosh will see plenty of time. North Dakota St only returned 2 starters last season yet won the conference tourney giving this year’s 5 returners confidence. The Bison got valuable experience playing at New Mexico St, at Iowa St, at #1 Gonzaga and against Duke in March Madness.
Game: (683) Utah U at (684) Nevada
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 10:30 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 149.5 (-110)
View Analysis
#683/#684 3* UNDER 149.5 Utah Nevada 10:30 PM
Scoring WILL be down moving the 3-point line back from 20’ 9” to 22’ 1 ¾” but I’m not going to have many totals until we get a clear pace projection. In this game, we have a Nevada team that lost all 5 starters and I think the line is too high because of HC Alford, Yes, Afford ran fast-paced offenses at UCLA but he had Ball at PG. Utah will slow the pace and are clearly the better team here.
BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (621) George Washington at (622) Towson
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 7:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: George Washington 6.0 (-107)
View Analysis
#621 4* George Washington +6 Towson 7 PM
Two teams that finished last season even and I have George Washington as the better team to start this year. GW returns 7 of their top 9 scorers including 3 starters (compared to 2 for Towson) and gets back a 27-game starter from 2017-18 who only played the first 7 games LY before getting injured. I like new HC Christian who took a Siena team that was picked for last finished second in the NEC LY.
Game: (643) San Antonio Roadrunners at (644) Oklahoma
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 8:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: San Antonio Roadrunners 13.5 (-108)
View Analysis
The remaining 4 plays for a total of 5 will be posted by 1 PM ET/ 10 AM PT
#643 3% UTSA + 13.5 Oklahoma 8 PM -
Going into Oklahoma is tough but UTSA has the guards to do it. The Sooners are a young team as they have only one senior, who avg’d 11 PPG and he is out with a one-game suspension. UTSA has both guards back as returning starters and both made the All-CUSA team and are the highest scoring backcourt duo in the country. UTSA coach Steve Henson played for Kruger at Kansas St and was an assistant under him from 2011-2016 so I don’t see an embarrassing blowout in the offing,
Game: (631) UT Rio Grande Valley at (632) South Dakota State
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 8:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: UT Rio Grande Valley 5.0 (-110)
View Analysis
#631 4* UT Rio Grande Valley (UTRGV) +5 South Dakota St 8 PM
The WAC can play basketball and this RGV squad has gone from 10 to 15 to 20 wins LY under HC Hill including going 8-7 SU on the road and 11-2 ATS as an AD. The Vaqueros play a pressing D and were 4th in the NCAA in turnovers forced per game. Javon Levi is the glue and he was a finalist or defensive player of the year. South Dakota St lost 3x Summit League POY in Mike Daum, lost their HC to UNLV and returns only 1 starter and 30% of minutes played.
Game: (647) North Dakota St at (648) Kansas State
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 8:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: North Dakota St 12.0 (-110)
View Analysis
#647 3* North Dakota St +12 Kansas St 8 PM
Losing players like Brown, Stokes, and Wade is tough on a program and even tougher on KSt who was third last in recruiting in the conference. The Wildcats are also missing some depth with one back-up suspended and two injured meaning frosh will see plenty of time. North Dakota St only returned 2 starters last season yet won the conference tourney giving this year’s 5 returners confidence. The Bison got valuable experience playing at New Mexico St, at Iowa St, at #1 Gonzaga and against Duke in March Madness.
Game: (683) Utah U at (684) Nevada
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 10:30 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 149.5 (-110)
View Analysis
#683/#684 3* UNDER 149.5 Utah Nevada 10:30 PM
Scoring WILL be down moving the 3-point line back from 20’ 9” to 22’ 1 ¾” but I’m not going to have many totals until we get a clear pace projection. In this game, we have a Nevada team that lost all 5 starters and I think the line is too high because of HC Alford, Yes, Afford ran fast-paced offenses at UCLA but he had Ball at PG. Utah will slow the pace and are clearly the better team here.
DR. CHUCK
HOCKEY PLAYS
Game: (9) Boston Bruins at (10) Montreal Canadiens
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 7:35 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 6.0 (-104)
View Analysis
17-10 last 27 and 10 of last 11 hitting this trend based upon the Bruins on no rest and travel tonight. Both goalies that Boston can send out there are incredibly +EV and we don't mind backing Rask or Halak. We should get Carey Price on the Habs end and this makes the play a full 4% as he is a boon over Kinkaid.
Game: (13) Colorado Avalanche at (14) Dallas Stars
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 8:35 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 5.5 (-115)
View Analysis
Grubauer v. Bishop
A little of the luster has come off the crazy hot start and the Stars have turned it around from the wicked rough start early in October. The Stars have Bishop going and period at home they are 7-1 to the Under and the Avs on the road just 3 times this season intra-conference are 2-1 Under...and Grubauer is still worth backing with a solid number like 5.5...as this game screams out 2-1 or 3-1...and I would lean toward the Stars...but ceiling here certainly in my esimation is 3-2
Game: (19) St. Louis Blues at (20) Vancouver Canucks
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 10:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: St. Louis Blues +110
View Analysis
The champs as a dog with Binnington tonight facing Markstrom?? Over compensation for the poor early start? The Blues have won 4 in a row and 6 of 7 overall...and are in no different spot travel wise as both were away winners last time out. St. Louis is hot and there is no sense at not jumping at them as a dog period!
HOCKEY PLAYS
Game: (9) Boston Bruins at (10) Montreal Canadiens
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 7:35 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 6.0 (-104)
View Analysis
17-10 last 27 and 10 of last 11 hitting this trend based upon the Bruins on no rest and travel tonight. Both goalies that Boston can send out there are incredibly +EV and we don't mind backing Rask or Halak. We should get Carey Price on the Habs end and this makes the play a full 4% as he is a boon over Kinkaid.
Game: (13) Colorado Avalanche at (14) Dallas Stars
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 8:35 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 5.5 (-115)
View Analysis
Grubauer v. Bishop
A little of the luster has come off the crazy hot start and the Stars have turned it around from the wicked rough start early in October. The Stars have Bishop going and period at home they are 7-1 to the Under and the Avs on the road just 3 times this season intra-conference are 2-1 Under...and Grubauer is still worth backing with a solid number like 5.5...as this game screams out 2-1 or 3-1...and I would lean toward the Stars...but ceiling here certainly in my esimation is 3-2
Game: (19) St. Louis Blues at (20) Vancouver Canucks
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 10:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: St. Louis Blues +110
View Analysis
The champs as a dog with Binnington tonight facing Markstrom?? Over compensation for the poor early start? The Blues have won 4 in a row and 6 of 7 overall...and are in no different spot travel wise as both were away winners last time out. St. Louis is hot and there is no sense at not jumping at them as a dog period!
ANDREW MCINNIS
BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (551) Miami Heat at (552) Denver Nuggets
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 9:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Miami Heat 4.5 (-108)
Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets - Miami +4.5 (4%)
What a surprise the Miami heat have been this season, I really have to give it up to coach Erik Spolestra and to Pat Riley for drafting some great under the radar players the last few years. The Nuggets look pathetic to start the season. This team will only go as far as Jokic takes them and something seems wrong with him. I dont know if hes out of shape or just doesnt want to be aggressive, either way they look TERRIBLE on the offensive side of the ball as they average 103 PPG to Miami's 115. I love this Matchup for the Heat. Miami, who plays at the fastest pace in the league will be going against the slowest pace in the league vs the Nuggets. I watched the Nuggets last three games and they look LOST on offense, this is going to be tough for them as Miami is not a very forgiving defense themselves, allowing 107 PPG which is good for 12th in the league. I am very impressed with rookie Tyler Herro and this deep Miami bench. Comparing both teams starts to the season, it would be extremely ballsy backing Denver here, take the +4.5 points with Miami, theyll get the win here.
BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (551) Miami Heat at (552) Denver Nuggets
Date/Time: Nov 5 2019 9:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Miami Heat 4.5 (-108)
Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets - Miami +4.5 (4%)
What a surprise the Miami heat have been this season, I really have to give it up to coach Erik Spolestra and to Pat Riley for drafting some great under the radar players the last few years. The Nuggets look pathetic to start the season. This team will only go as far as Jokic takes them and something seems wrong with him. I dont know if hes out of shape or just doesnt want to be aggressive, either way they look TERRIBLE on the offensive side of the ball as they average 103 PPG to Miami's 115. I love this Matchup for the Heat. Miami, who plays at the fastest pace in the league will be going against the slowest pace in the league vs the Nuggets. I watched the Nuggets last three games and they look LOST on offense, this is going to be tough for them as Miami is not a very forgiving defense themselves, allowing 107 PPG which is good for 12th in the league. I am very impressed with rookie Tyler Herro and this deep Miami bench. Comparing both teams starts to the season, it would be extremely ballsy backing Denver here, take the +4.5 points with Miami, theyll get the win here.
