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Tuesday Service Play Thread 07/20/2021
- Thread starter BuzzKill
- Start date
YOUCAPPER
NBA Finals Best Bet from SM’s Top NBA Capper
Game: (511) Phoenix Suns at (512) Milwaukee Bucks
Date/Time: Jul 20 2021 9:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -5.0 (-110)
The Bucks are heading home into game 6 with momentum on their side.
They have won 17 of their last 18 games at home including nine of those wins in these playoffs. Why is that important? Since the 2010 playoffs, in the NBA Finals, teams that win the game cover the spread at a 95% clip (57-3-2) according to the SDQL NBA database.
The Suns are not doing a great job moving the ball this series. In each of the first three rounds of these playoffs, the Suns were sporting an assist to turnover ratio over 2.5, against the Bucks that ratio is down to under 2. In the first two games of this series where the Suns won, Booker had 6 assists each. In the following three losses, Booker had 2, 2, and 3 assists respectively. Though Booker has been scoring in bunches, the Bucks defensive scheme has turned him into a single-minded offensive player. You can see how that has affected the Suns offense as a whole, especially visible in games three and four of the series.
I think the Bucks close this out with a strong defensive showing.
Line Parameter: I’d take Bucks up to -6.
NBA Finals Best Bet from SM’s Top NBA Capper
Game: (511) Phoenix Suns at (512) Milwaukee Bucks
Date/Time: Jul 20 2021 9:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -5.0 (-110)
The Bucks are heading home into game 6 with momentum on their side.
They have won 17 of their last 18 games at home including nine of those wins in these playoffs. Why is that important? Since the 2010 playoffs, in the NBA Finals, teams that win the game cover the spread at a 95% clip (57-3-2) according to the SDQL NBA database.
The Suns are not doing a great job moving the ball this series. In each of the first three rounds of these playoffs, the Suns were sporting an assist to turnover ratio over 2.5, against the Bucks that ratio is down to under 2. In the first two games of this series where the Suns won, Booker had 6 assists each. In the following three losses, Booker had 2, 2, and 3 assists respectively. Though Booker has been scoring in bunches, the Bucks defensive scheme has turned him into a single-minded offensive player. You can see how that has affected the Suns offense as a whole, especially visible in games three and four of the series.
I think the Bucks close this out with a strong defensive showing.
Line Parameter: I’d take Bucks up to -6.
