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Im a degenerate who loves football action. Ive had a very nice last 2 weeks so giving some back on this shitfest only seems fair. Anybody local to these teams have a beat on this game? Any insight would be appreciated. Im seeing arky -4.5 @5dimes
 

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To close to call... both teams have had 10 days to prepare. Take away the home field advantage and Vegas sees Arkansas state as almost a touchdown.... Based upon strength of schedule id say that's about right up to this point. I don't trust Arkansas state tho in all honesty to hold a lead and I don't have enough info on south Alabama to make a play..... I'll play the over at 60 tho, because I think both offenses have had Time to prepare and gameplan. Tuesday night games will have to put up points or people will change the channel lol.... That's why I'm playing the over hahaha
 

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From what I read, dual-threat Fredi Knighten is back this game. He was a pre-season 1st team QB in Sun Belt. He had some big games last year.
South Alabama received a bunch of UAB transfers in the off-season. Most notably, Cody Clements, their starting QB...
 

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I'm betting on Arkansas State. With Knighten back at QB and the running game with Michael Gordon (racking up 221 yards last week and 3 TD's against Idaho) South Alabama won't be able to keep up.
 

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I personally played Ark. St. -3.5...I said the hell with the hook. I think Knighten provides a spark for this offense. I think S. Ala. Opened as a favorite and then Ark. was favored by 6 and now it dropped to 3.5. I am sort of confused about all of that but I guess it had to do with Knighten's return.

South Alabama's signature win is against SDSU. But in that game they had 3 big play TDs and struggled with sustained drives. They relied on big plays against Gardner Webb also.
Ark. St. might be a little underrated and certainly unknown. They have been playing with a freshman QB. 3 of their 5 opponents are Big Five (USC, Mizzu, Toledo). The other two were an FCS team which they didn't play down to the level of competition(they handled their business) and Idaho. Now, at first glance the Idaho game might look kind of bad (they gave up 35 to Idaho?). However, Idaho scored on an INT return and 2 garbage TDs in the 4th quarter when the game was 49-21.
Pre-season Ark. St. was slightly below App. St. and Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt, with some people saying they were better. South Alabama was an unknown due to all the transfers, however they we slotted in the third.

For me, those reasons are good enough to lay some pipe to Ark. St. at 3.5. (hoping their pass D holds up is my main concern as nothing is a lock).
 

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Disregard
 
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Trends:
Arkansas State is:

  • 7-0 ATS with rest against conference opponent.
  • 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
South Alabama is:

  • 3-10 ATS last 13 overall.
  • 1-7 ATS last 8 home games.
  • 0-5 ATS last 5 as a favorite.
 

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I personally played Ark. St. -3.5...I said the hell with the hook. I think Knighten provides a spark for this offense. I think S. Ala. Opened as a favorite and then Ark. was favored by 6 and now it dropped to 3.5. I am sort of confused about all of that but I guess it had to do with Knighten's return.

South Alabama's signature win is against SDSU. But in that game they had 3 big play TDs and struggled with sustained drives. They relied on big plays against Gardner Webb also.
Ark. St. might be a little underrated and certainly unknown. They have been playing with a freshman QB. 3 of their 5 opponents are Big Five (USC, Mizzu, Toledo). The other two were an FCS team which they didn't play down to the level of competition(they handled their business) and Idaho. Now, at first glance the Idaho game might look kind of bad (they gave up 35 to Idaho?). However, Idaho scored on an INT return and 2 garbage TDs in the 4th quarter when the game was 49-21.
Pre-season Ark. St. was slightly below App. St. and Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt, with some people saying they were better. South Alabama was an unknown due to all the transfers, however they we slotted in the third.

For me, those reasons are good enough to lay some pipe to Ark. St. at 3.5. (hoping their pass D holds up is my main concern as nothing is a lock).

HBGPhillyPhan thank you, I really enjoy reading your posts and handycapping style, non of that trend bullshit , 100% what have these team done latly and what do they bring to the table tonight
 

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HBGPhillyPhan thank you, I really enjoy reading your posts and handycapping style, non of that trend bullshit , 100% what have these team done latly and what do they bring to the table tonight

Thanks smart....I try not to make plays on trends alone. I try and get a current sense of the team and understand why a team won or lost a particular game. "Surface stats" such as win/loss records, total yards, etc can be deceiving.
 

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Thanks smart....I try not to make plays on trends alone. I try and get a current sense of the team and understand why a team won or lost a particular game. "Surface stats" such as win/loss records, total yards, etc can be deceiving.
exactly how i make my picks
 

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I didnt like that Knee they took with 60 seconds to go on the 30.. makes the game look fishy
 

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My bets paid off on this one.

Arkansas State 49
South Alabama 31 Final

Winning :toast:
 

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31-20 S. Alabama with 12 to go in the 4th.

If you had Arkansas St., feel lucky. i had live on S. Alabama at +7.5 and still couldn't cover.
 

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31-20 S. Alabama with 12 to go in the 4th.

If you had Arkansas St., feel lucky. i had live on S. Alabama at +7.5 and still couldn't cover.

Certainly do feel lucky, however even if you take away the 2 garbage defensive TDs, Ark. St. covered -3.5.
I have been on the other side enough times to be counting my blessings though.
 

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Just the way it goes.. I had a feeling SA would play somewhat decent, I just never imagined that they would be up 11 in the 4th and have a complete meltdown like that lol.. Well done Ark St backers. :103631605
 

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Certainly do feel lucky, however even if you take away the 2 garbage defensive TDs, Ark. St. covered -3.5.
I have been on the other side enough times to be counting my blessings though.

Well yeah however being down four in the 4th is much different in how you finish the game than being down 18.

Turning point? The ejection for targeting. S. Alabama with full momentum and lost it all on that play.
 

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