I personally played Ark. St. -3.5...I said the hell with the hook. I think Knighten provides a spark for this offense. I think S. Ala. Opened as a favorite and then Ark. was favored by 6 and now it dropped to 3.5. I am sort of confused about all of that but I guess it had to do with Knighten's return.
South Alabama's signature win is against SDSU. But in that game they had 3 big play TDs and struggled with sustained drives. They relied on big plays against Gardner Webb also.
Ark. St. might be a little underrated and certainly unknown. They have been playing with a freshman QB. 3 of their 5 opponents are Big Five (USC, Mizzu, Toledo). The other two were an FCS team which they didn't play down to the level of competition(they handled their business) and Idaho. Now, at first glance the Idaho game might look kind of bad (they gave up 35 to Idaho?). However, Idaho scored on an INT return and 2 garbage TDs in the 4th quarter when the game was 49-21.
Pre-season Ark. St. was slightly below App. St. and Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt, with some people saying they were better. South Alabama was an unknown due to all the transfers, however they we slotted in the third.
For me, those reasons are good enough to lay some pipe to Ark. St. at 3.5. (hoping their pass D holds up is my main concern as nothing is a lock).