First I would like to bring up the fact that the bosox beat anaheim in this same pitching matchup earlier in the year WITHOUT manny in the lineup...
Anaheim swept the first two game series (@anaheim) and then the two teams split the second series at anaheim (4 games)
Now the two teams meet at boston and BOTH teams have lost only 2 out of their last 14 games (SOX having won their last 6 - 4 vs detroit, 2 of 3 at toronto, 3 of 3 at Chicago and Toronto and 1 of 3 vs chicago. ANAHEIM winning 2 of 3 vs minny, sweeping AT the yanks and vs KC, and taking 2 of 3 at Tampa) guerrero is .250 vs schilling and other than that these guys really havent seen him much.
Schilling has done great over his last 3 winning all 3 giving up a total of 4 runs in those 3 outings (2 at chicago and one vs chicago). He gave up 6 runs vs tampa 4 starts ago which was one game after his complete game 2 run win at tampa. Not bad over his last 5 games. 4 wins and one loss vs toronto chicago and tampa. When schilling faced anaheim he went 8 innings and gave up only one run, a homer to molina in the 3rd. By the time he came out to pitch in the bottom of the 7th his team had a 6 run lead as a result of an ortiz 3 run homer in the 6th, and in the 7th a kalper homer, an ortiz single driving in damon, and a nomar triple driving in Ortiz.
Lackey was removed from the game of course yet gave up 5 of those 6 runs. Over the last few games lackey has not looked particularly good giving up 5, 4, 3, 4, and 7 going back from his last start. However, his record tells a different story in that he is 2-1 over his last 5 and 6-2 over his last 10. I dont know why he allowed so many runs vs tampa KC detroit and minny ovewr his last 5 starts. He hasnt seen much of the redsox but in a nutshell - damon has not done well against him (.125 in 16AB), mintk and varitek have done ok at .300/.333 in 12-10AB, and manny roberts and ortiz have done well against him .444, .375, and .417 lifetime.
So now with all that out of the way - I'm gonna backtrack a little. Ive just basically made the case for the red sox to win the game but thats not the direction I'm going to take this...
What I see here reading through the lines is 2 relatively even teams, both on good streaks, and both with a good chance to win night in and night out. The sox have the pitching edge in terms of the starters and how they match up vs the opposing team - but the angels have a more balanced lineup
--->
The sox who have manny (.316) and ortiz (.301) consistently above .300, with Damon (.305) and varitek (.306) hovering for now above that mark and ONLY Millar (.292) and mueller (.289), anywhere near that area...
Anaheim in contrast boasts currently 4 players pretty consistently above .300 (erstad .316, Guerrero .329, Anderson .311, Guillen .304) with many more close behind than the sox (eckstien .290, glaus .296, figgins .294, and molina .287) - amazingly EIGHT players at or right around the .300 mark! - and their 'worst' is batting .271 (kennedy)!!!
To round out the lineup for the sox there is bellhorn roberts and cabrera who together average .261, and dont forget the rest of the "platoon" kapler (.271), mccarty (.246), guttierez (.236), and mintkewicz (.245).
Yes I know that team average doesnt 'factor out' the worst pitchers but the thing that it DOES do is - it gives you a stat that can be used to talk in for the most part - apples to apples terminology - with the variables on any given night being how strong or weak the pitching is, and how well the hitters live up to, or fall below or above their usual level of performance.
What boils down to a value play between two very similar teams with in my opinion offsetting and equalizing characteristics.
So now that all the words have been said I'll throw out the pick as if it isnt obvious already:
Anaheim +175 (bodog)
Anaheim swept the first two game series (@anaheim) and then the two teams split the second series at anaheim (4 games)
Now the two teams meet at boston and BOTH teams have lost only 2 out of their last 14 games (SOX having won their last 6 - 4 vs detroit, 2 of 3 at toronto, 3 of 3 at Chicago and Toronto and 1 of 3 vs chicago. ANAHEIM winning 2 of 3 vs minny, sweeping AT the yanks and vs KC, and taking 2 of 3 at Tampa) guerrero is .250 vs schilling and other than that these guys really havent seen him much.
Schilling has done great over his last 3 winning all 3 giving up a total of 4 runs in those 3 outings (2 at chicago and one vs chicago). He gave up 6 runs vs tampa 4 starts ago which was one game after his complete game 2 run win at tampa. Not bad over his last 5 games. 4 wins and one loss vs toronto chicago and tampa. When schilling faced anaheim he went 8 innings and gave up only one run, a homer to molina in the 3rd. By the time he came out to pitch in the bottom of the 7th his team had a 6 run lead as a result of an ortiz 3 run homer in the 6th, and in the 7th a kalper homer, an ortiz single driving in damon, and a nomar triple driving in Ortiz.
Lackey was removed from the game of course yet gave up 5 of those 6 runs. Over the last few games lackey has not looked particularly good giving up 5, 4, 3, 4, and 7 going back from his last start. However, his record tells a different story in that he is 2-1 over his last 5 and 6-2 over his last 10. I dont know why he allowed so many runs vs tampa KC detroit and minny ovewr his last 5 starts. He hasnt seen much of the redsox but in a nutshell - damon has not done well against him (.125 in 16AB), mintk and varitek have done ok at .300/.333 in 12-10AB, and manny roberts and ortiz have done well against him .444, .375, and .417 lifetime.
So now with all that out of the way - I'm gonna backtrack a little. Ive just basically made the case for the red sox to win the game but thats not the direction I'm going to take this...
What I see here reading through the lines is 2 relatively even teams, both on good streaks, and both with a good chance to win night in and night out. The sox have the pitching edge in terms of the starters and how they match up vs the opposing team - but the angels have a more balanced lineup
--->
The sox who have manny (.316) and ortiz (.301) consistently above .300, with Damon (.305) and varitek (.306) hovering for now above that mark and ONLY Millar (.292) and mueller (.289), anywhere near that area...
Anaheim in contrast boasts currently 4 players pretty consistently above .300 (erstad .316, Guerrero .329, Anderson .311, Guillen .304) with many more close behind than the sox (eckstien .290, glaus .296, figgins .294, and molina .287) - amazingly EIGHT players at or right around the .300 mark! - and their 'worst' is batting .271 (kennedy)!!!
To round out the lineup for the sox there is bellhorn roberts and cabrera who together average .261, and dont forget the rest of the "platoon" kapler (.271), mccarty (.246), guttierez (.236), and mintkewicz (.245).
Yes I know that team average doesnt 'factor out' the worst pitchers but the thing that it DOES do is - it gives you a stat that can be used to talk in for the most part - apples to apples terminology - with the variables on any given night being how strong or weak the pitching is, and how well the hitters live up to, or fall below or above their usual level of performance.
What boils down to a value play between two very similar teams with in my opinion offsetting and equalizing characteristics.
So now that all the words have been said I'll throw out the pick as if it isnt obvious already:
Anaheim +175 (bodog)
