Tuesday NCAA

[PirateAlew]

7-5 Monday/919-725YTD

Some better games again tonight at least. Let's see how we do.

Kansas State -2-120
Ball State ML-105
Central Michigan-3-115
Iowa ML-118
TCU-4
Miami (FL)+4
Colorado State ML-130

South Carolina+14
Miami Ohio+8
Marquette+2
Illinois-2-115
Utah State -13

UNLV/Fresno Over 141
Miami/NC State Over 153

Top plays: Kansas State, Ball St, Cent. Michigan, Iowa, TCU, Miami FL, Colorado State

GL to all.

 

[exploited17]

Usually good spot for same season at home revenge is pretty good, no?
Villanova?
Important game for them. Lost last 2 at home?
I know Marquette the better team but home court.
GL today

 

[PirateAlew]

Usually good spot for same season at home revenge is pretty good, no?
Villanova?
Important game for them. Lost last 2 at home?
I know Marquette the better team but home court.
GL today

yes i did look at that with a few of these, Iowa/Indy too but had to go with the team better by about 10 points. last Nova/Marq game Nova shot their eyes out from 3 just to stay close and within 10 points last game, i doubt they do it again to stay close. They hit 14 three pointers that game while Marquette shot 58.7% last game and had a 60-18 advantage in the paint. Nova enters this game on a 4 game losing skid and I don't see this correcting tonight especially as Nova shoots 42.4% from the field, which is ranked 293rd in NCAA, and 32.5% from 3 which is 240th. While Marq isn't a great 3 point shooting team, it is one of the best inside-the-arc FG shooting teams, ranking 12th. This will be the big difference tonight.
Late January/early February the better-classed teams typically start to separate themselves from the rest of the conference, while the struggling teams esp those on skids, typically continue their downward spiral. That's my hope tonight.

 

[PirateAlew]

left off a play and my quick analysis of VCU:

VCU+5-115 (Top play)

VCU is on a nice 5 game winning streak, while St bonnie has lost 2 of last 3 and 3 of last 5, only scoring 60 pts or fewer 2 of last 3 games. They wont be able to find the offense tonight against a solid defensive squad i believe. Good revenge spot for their first game they lost by 11 in a game the rams struggled in their 3 point defense allowing st bonnie to hit 12 of 22 from 3. Doubt it happens again tonight against a VCU defense holding teams to 66.8 ppts,ranking them 27th in US in opponents FG's and 3 poiinters made per game, 73rd in defensive efficiency and 98th in offensive efficiency against a ST. B team that has struggled to hit 70 points last few games.

 

[stoopid]

Just out of curiosity since u play so many games, do u wager 50, 100, 200 a game or more. U bet ur top games more? If I missed a thread explaining all this I apologize. Most of the time I see most of ur top plays and my plays align so keep up the good work and keep crushing it.

 

[PirateAlew]

Just out of curiosity since u play so many games, do u wager 50, 100, 200 a game or more. U bet ur top games more? If I missed a thread explaining all this I apologize. Most of the time I see most of ur top plays and my plays align so keep up the good work and keep crushing it.

it varies each night and the individual game but typically i'll bet top plays 3-6 units (World series and a few other instances as high as 10u), with first listed at top being more usually, the regular plays i wager .5u-2.9 units typically, with totals being usually half of what i bet sides, unless it is a top play. Hope that helps and glad you are killing it!

Writeup of the SC Pick:
This tenny team is really good but this is prob SC's best team in decades. this +14 is way too high and prob factoring and weighing the recency of their matchups more heavily, with their last 4 matchups resulting in Ten. blowouts, all over 20 points, with last 2 reaching 40 and 43 and the next being a 34 point blowout. This is a much diff SC team than years past, this team can score as evidenced by averagingh 118.3 points per 100 possessions. They now own 3 straight victories, with the only loss being a 5 point close loss, while owning 2 straight road victories including blowing out Arkansas. SC is also good defensively ranking them 28th in points allowed, allowing a measly 64.5 points, while scoring an average 73.2 points scored per game. SC is ranked 54th while Tenn is 4th. This spread is too high.

 

[poppers]

Good Luck PirateAlew!!

 

[indiana]

P. Alew....solid looking card today buddy....
BOL with all your action....
on many with you......indy

 

[PirateAlew]

thanks Pop and Indy, you too!

UNLV-8

South Carolina/Tennessee Over 136 (Top play)
Illinois State/Murray State Over 133

 

[smallmouth_bass]

Thanks for the explanations, Pirate. It helps so much to see/read/hear the why people are picking games. I truly appreciate you putting the extra time in when in all honesty you don't have to. It helps so much for beginners like me.

 

[smallmouth_bass]

Hey Pirate. I posted this to Rum also. I broke down the Kansas State game. You and many others love Kansas St tonight. In my research I found that Oklahoma has a significant offensive edge. Oklahoma is also better defensively. The rebounding is about as equal as you can get, the turnover/assist ratio highly favors Oklahoma, and Oklahoma is by far the better shooting team.

I know both teams are coming off losses and Kansas ST is a very tough place to play, but is that it? Does it simply come down to home field advantage? I can't figure out why so many people love Kansas State tonight? Can you please help me understand or help me see what I'm missing? I want to learn to be a better capper and i feel like I'm missing something. What makes this a favorite play of so many people???

Thanks!!!!

 

[PirateAlew]

Hey Pirate. I posted this to Rum also. I broke down the Kansas State game. You and many others love Kansas St tonight. In my research I found that Oklahoma has a significant offensive edge. Oklahoma is also better defensively. The rebounding is about as equal as you can get, the turnover/assist ratio highly favors Oklahoma, and Oklahoma is by far the better shooting team.

I know both teams are coming off losses and Kansas ST is a very tough place to play, but is that it? Does it simply come down to home field advantage? I can't figure out why so many people love Kansas State tonight? Can you please help me understand or help me see what I'm missing? I want to learn to be a better capper and i feel like I'm missing something. What makes this a favorite play of so many people???

Thanks!!!!

Sure. Oklahoma's record and stats are very misleading. They benefit from a very week non-conference schedule, which helped them climb the rnaking, but this conference is a much different animal than the other teams they faced. While they are ranked 23rd , the are 9th in Big 12. They just low 2 straight at home and now have to travel to a tough environment in K State. K state is tough at home, having beaten #9 Baylor while OK has only covered 2 of their last 6 games agains weaker teams in Cincy and WVU. Defensively, K State is very good with the 22nd most efficient D which will shut down an Oklahoma team without scorers that light it up. No one on their roster averages over 15 points per game .
Good Luck

 

[Joe$$Moneyline]

Your thoughts
Miss st
Air Force

 

[PirateAlew]

Your thoughts
Miss st
Air Force

Yes, With Miss state I cant get past their road woes. Give me the home team Ole Piss who has won 12 straight at home.
I'm also taking Wyoming, who is better than the worst team in the conference, Air Force.

Ole Piss ML-112
Wyoming+4

 

[smallmouth_bass]

Sure. Oklahoma's record and stats are very misleading. They benefit from a very week non-conference schedule, which helped them climb the rnaking, but this conference is a much different animal than the other teams they faced. While they are ranked 23rd , the are 9th in Big 12. They just low 2 straight at home and now have to travel to a tough environment in K State. K state is tough at home, having beaten #9 Baylor while OK has only covered 2 of their last 6 games agains weaker teams in Cincy and WVU. Defensively, K State is very good with the 22nd most efficient D which will shut down an Oklahoma team without scorers that light it up. No one on their roster averages over 15 points per game .
Good Luck

That's interesting. So you look at inner conference games instead of just the totality of one's total season stats. You also mentioned Efficient D... where do you go to find this? One51 rum mentioned a site called Team Rankings. Also, is efficient D more important than overall defense? How do you so all of this? You are a heavy volume bettor, yet you seem to know all the stats/figures for each game. How in the world do you find the time for all your sports? Do you have a program? I'm cranking in the hours and I still don't know as much as you...and you do more games!!!

 

[LSUpete]

Yes, With Miss state I cant get past their road woes. Give me the home team Ole Piss who has won 12 straight at home.
I'm also taking Wyoming, who is better than the worst team in the conference, Air Force.

Ole Piss ML-112
Wyoming+4

I agree with your point about MSU's away performances, but this game (while it IS away) is only a short distance away. And, there is certainly nothing intimidating about Ole Miss' gym. I would recommend Miss. State + 2.

 

[Mofome2]

Sure. Oklahoma's record and stats are very misleading. They benefit from a very week non-conference schedule, which helped them climb the rnaking, but this conference is a much different animal than the other teams they faced. While they are ranked 23rd , the are 9th in Big 12. They just low 2 straight at home and now have to travel to a tough environment in K State. K state is tough at home, having beaten #9 Baylor while OK has only covered 2 of their last 6 games agains weaker teams in Cincy and WVU. Defensively, K State is very good with the 22nd most efficient D which will shut down an Oklahoma team without scorers that light it up. No one on their roster averages over 15 points per game .
Good Luck

With that being said thoughts on the total? After saying no oke over roster averages over 15 wanted to see what you thought pf total. Thxs and good luck

 

[PirateAlew]

With that being said thoughts on the total? After saying no oke over roster averages over 15 wanted to see what you thought pf total. Thxs and good luck

I do expect it to be an intense defensive game, as the under also has hit 3 of the last 5 times these 2 have played, and Miss state has gone under 6 of 11 times on the road. I see this as an under game

 

[PirateAlew]

Murray State-7
North Carolina-4-120 (First Half)
Wyoming/Air Force Over 137

 

[PirateAlew]

Murray State is a top play above.

Marquette above is also a top play.