Tuesday MAC Fun

Heatwave · Nov 22, 2016

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1060668&page=3

All plays in posting forum. Career year this year, still pinching myself that it isn't a dream.

Tonight:

MIAMI -7 -115 Over Ball State

I focus almost solely on statistics, namely more recent statistics, when handicapping. So, Miami, a balanced offensive team faces Ball State, also a balanced offensive team. So, when looking at schedule adjusted defensive stats from the last 4 games, I show Miami ranked 34th, and Ball State ranked 103rd. This is significant. It makes sense too, as Miami started the year 0-6 and has rattled off 5 straight wins. The offenses are similarly ranked (BSU 76th, Miami 70th). Now, throw the intangibles in. Miami needs the win to become bowl eligible. Ball State only has 4 wins, and is more than likely not going anywhere after this game, so huge motivation edge here. Also, Miami, with a win and an Ohio slip up, wins their side of the MAC and goes to their death at Western Michigan. Anyway, a lot of things leaning their way today, and I would take them for 1 unit. Get on it early, this stuff is not new news and by game time this may be near double digits.

Good luck.

HW

Cantpickem · Nov 22, 2016

Just a thought ... Ball st being not eligible for a bowl may just try out players that have been sitting on the bench for most of the year.

blackchina · Nov 22, 2016

They probably still want to play spoiler

Heatwave · Nov 22, 2016

No doubt that you could get a more than expected Ball State squad (wanting to play spoiler), or you could get a Ball State tryout game. This is why I handicap with stats, as these non-statistical things are hard to predict. All I really know is that Miami is better team over last 4 games than Ball State, and that Miami has motivation. Motivation is factored in the line for sure, but in many cases it is undervalued. I think that the combination of statistical edge plus motivation equals more than a 7 point win.