There has been like 6 pitchers who have gone on 3 days rest in recent times. None of them have made it past 6 innings. In fact only one pitcher pitched 6, two pitched five, and others never got past third inning. Kershaw pitched 120 pitches on Friday. I can't see him with Cards approaches at plate going past 5. Throw in fact that he likely hasn't seen a shrink as Cards are totally in his head, I expect Dodgers bullpen to have to pitch a minimum of three innings. Like I mentioned above, Miller will pitch well. I think Kershaw has a better chance of implosion than going past 6 innings. Cards could easily make this a laugher and young Dodgers could easily lose it today. Showing signs already with Kemp and others complaining of umps, dirty play of Cards, etc. Sounds like nothing but excuses. Cards are the play here.
Sound like the best play is the over 6.5. Dodgers bullpen has been rocked lately and Kershaw doesn't have a good record against the Cards or in the playoffs for that matter. Miller, although he pitched well down the stretch, isn't a shut down pitcher. He probably gives up 3+ runs and the Dodgers bullpen alone will give up 3 IMO.
Still too much juice for me. I agree with whoever said that if you're betting Dodgers, bet the updated series. Whoever wins game 4 wins the series imo. Greinke at home game 5 would be too much. That being said, you may want to take cards at +150. Even with Kershaw, there's so much value. Bats are live in STL.
you mean the 1 game he's done it ? versus the lowly batting Braves last season, and at home? Braves had the worst strikeout % of any team in MLB last year. St. Louis has the best strikeout % in MLB this year.
And that he gave up 2 unearned runs in those 6 innings? Gonzalez threw a ball away and then Kershaw had a wild pitch to advance runners to 2nd and 3rd no outs.
Here's two stats for you.
Kershaw has a 3.46 ERA in 14 regular-season starts against the Cardinals, his highest for any team against whom he's made at least 10 starts.
Recent history (since 2000) of starters making October starts on only three days' rest is checkered at best. The 54 in the pool combined for a 4.80 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.
I like the RL here for the value but I believe the play is on the over. As much as I want to see my Birds close this out and not head back west Shelby scares me. First postseason start, going against Kershaw (albeit on short rest but still...it's Kershaw). I'm a Homer so it's obvious where my money will be played. But I'd tread lightly in Shelbyville. He's sure to give up at least 3 runs. Hope I'm wrong, but just trying to be realistic.
