Tuesday Bets O The Day 5/5

[OccamsRazor]

PLAYOFFS 2008/2009
YTD 10-7 (58.8%)
SIDES 1-6 (14%)
TOTALS 9-1 (90%)

The Nuggets forced 20 turnovers in Game 1, outshot the Mavericks 36-13 from the foul line, outhustled them 29-4 on fastbreak points and outmuscled them 58-30 in the paint. Denver D is for real. 1st game score does not reflect the true dominance Denver has over Dallas.

Denver-6' (<)<


Clev/Atl OVER 179 (<)<

Public knows you bet UNDER in playoffs.

Linemaker knows the public knows, so he has to account for the Under public bias in the playoffs, a little too much here though.

 

[kingking]

or thanks very much for sharing this. am on that OVER for sure. thanks for the writeups and BOL on your plays. all free all the time the peoples capper

 

[Piranha]

May have to take a look at your total play but cannot follow you on your side play hno: based on your record.......GL!!

 

[OccamsRazor]

May have to take a look at your total play but cannot follow you on your side play hno: based on your record.......GL!!

Fair enough.

I post em, you bet em, if you like em.

 

[HonestRob]

May have to take a look at your total play but cannot follow you on your side play hno: based on your record.......GL!!

I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic about his record and I'm just missing it but judging someone on their record over such a small sample is not good gambling. Winning gambling is about the longrun. Anyone can go on a hot streak or a cold streak. The end of the year record is much more valuable info. If you agree with the reasoning for a pick then that is the one you should go with not just because someone who picked 5 games in a row right says too. Also, the winning pick isn't always the right one. For example, you can pick huge longshots all day and every now and then one might hit and you'll feel like a genius but all your profit will be eaten up by all the other times the fave won like they were supposed too.

 

[amado21]

occa i i think that this is goin to be boston orlando kind of game , so be carefull with this bet , my atlanta get blowup and that means atlanta my not score more than 65 points , just my two cents .good luck@)

 

[dangots0uL]

Occams, this is by GOY play...... going more money than I have never done b4..... (Denver -6.5)... same line of thinking as you. Hope you get to 2-6 on sides ><

 

[OccamsRazor]

Occams, this is by GOY play...... going more money than I have never gone b4..... (Denver -6.5)... same line of thinking as you. Hope you get to 2-6 on sides ><

Good Luck, Dang, dont know if I agree with going more money than ever b4. Hope you left some money aside, you would'nt want to tap out


"I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic about his record and I'm just missing it but judging someone on their record over such a small sample is not good gambling. Winning gambling is about the longrun. Anyone can go on a hot streak or a cold streak". Honest Rob

Your're right Rob the fact that my Sides and Totals record are almost diametrically opposed says all about small samples. I always tell people bet the my reasoning, not my pick.

I post em, you bet em, (if you agree with the reason)if you like em.

These are 2 bets in a marathon to June. They can both win, both lose or go 1-1. Pace yourself.

 

[dangots0uL]

yeahh i guess a little bit of both. i'm usually on the same side with you.. a few in mind boston last night, philly... and few others i cant remember.... just hoping theres no jinx..... of course im not stupid enough to realized the math behind all this and "jinxes" and "luck" doesn't exist in the long run

I just really feel this one won't be close... Denver is what? 5-1,6-0 ATS this year? I personally feel this game rests in Dirk's hands... Whether its close or whether its not.... I've seen enough from Kenyon + Nene to know that this team is legit. Billups is too smart to slack off cause their up 1-0 and he won't let his team slack off either. ANd honestly, to me Carmelo, Birdman + JR smith is all icing on the cake... Seals the deal... thats a sick asss lineup Denver's got.. with a GREAT and EXPERIENCED leader playing top-of-the-line team defense (A lot harder than it seems) I dont see anything but a blow out...

And honestly, lets look at the flip side. I see J-Kid going another 1-6 playing sloppy bbal and never finding his grove. And honestly, thats just the start... once your PG isn't in its groove thats HUGE.

People are horribly overestimating a shitty maverick team with an 18-23 record on the road. and 0-4 in their season matchup against the nuggets... and honestly when its time to step it up to the next level (playoffs), we can look at history to see how this maverick team does in such situations.

 

[msmith2179]

Not getting any help from Atlanta tonight for the over.

 

[amado21]

Man atlanta where to tired to make points, they sucks

 

[AsianGodofGambler]

watching this game made wanna puke a few times during the 4th quarter

 

[OccamsRazor]

1-1 bitter sweet. Won my second Side, Sweet! but lost my second Total Bitter, bummer.

As an UNDER bettor I love the 4th qtr when everything slows to a crawl. I found myself on the other Side tonight when I bet an OVER. Going in to the 4th, I thought "oh no, this is going to slow down." sure enough it did, damn, Oh well.

Denver dominated gain. Good call Dang, thought of you at the begining of the 4th Qtr when Denver went on that run. I could hear you from here. "YEAH BABY! I KNEW IT! I KNEW!"

back at em next time