TUESDAY BET O THE DAY

[OccamsRazor]

RECORD YTD 57-38 (.600)
SIDES 36-26 (.580)
TOTALS 21-12 (.636)

Memphis/Hawks rocketed over the total in the first Qtr and never looked back yesterday. A loss here.

Lakers at Home. What can you say except that they are consistent in their defensive play. New Orleans comes in without their two top scorers and brings in a better than average defense, one spot removed from the top ten. These two are the 26th and 27th worse 3point% shooting teams in the NBA. B.Davis 2nd in league NBA in 3pointers made and 3rd in league in FG attempts per 48 minutes will be sorely missed

UNDER 189'

 

[tatehill2000]

Im with you agian,,, Lets CASH tonight,,,,,

tater

 

[SportSavant]

nice early grab, unfortunately you are not the only one with this opinion as the game is now 186.5 & hte value is lost

 

[OccamsRazor]

Big move down form 189' to 186. Bad sign here as it indicates I'm on the side that the majority of the money coming in likes. Whether its sharp money or public money is unknown unless you are standing behind the counter taking the bets.

Its been my experience here that being on the steam side is a losing proposition for me.Tread accordingly.

 

[DonMarco]

Occam, the public can NOT move the line 3.5 points overnight. Never ever. The sharpies can. Injury reports can too. G/L buddy.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Good point DonM thanks for your obs.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Down to 185. Same line movement happened in the last Laker game here vs Utah, a winner. Hopefully history repeats.

 

[SportSavant]

how low can she go, before I bet the over

 

[Anonymous1]

did many of you watch the Utah game OR won with the under...phil had the bench crowd in by end of 1st q and into 2nd q... and throughout the game with greater playing time than recent games...until he had to rescue the game as the tie hit in the 4th...if this type of substitution pattern happens tonite then i think you guys are alright...however should phil put out the posse leaving kobe, shaq, mail, and gary (if he can remain cordial to the refs) it could be the wrong side to be on...not bashing the LAL bench...they just have no ability or consistent scoring...i hope you guys cash...gl

 

[OccamsRazor]

Cheapseats I did watch the game and saw something different. When Jackson pulled the starters the DEFENSE left with them and UTAH went on an offensive tear in the fourth ending with 29 points after scoring 20-18-17 in the previous 3. Phil put them back in and order was restored. So you're sort of damn if you do and damn if you don't, the starting 5 bring defense as well as offense. I just hope NEW O scores 80 and Lakers 95-100.

 

[Anonymous1]

OR...you are right...i saw what you did...the bench did cave-in defensively...and i agree the starting 5 are a FORCE on D...just think phil will continue to play bench as much as possible here in season-end to hopefully get a few quality minutes from them come playoff time...

 

[TheSnake]

Hornets pushing the scoring. Looks like Vegas will clean up on this gm.

 

[TheSnake]

then again I was burnt betting the over in the hornets games a couple of times. They are known to put up a 16 or 18 point quarter.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Another loss after a torrid first Qtr. I posted that the line going down, (It went down 4.5 points from the 189.5) was a bad sign and it turned out to be. Years of doing this and I can tell you, (at least in the games I bet) that when the line moves the way that I have bet (UNDER line goes lower, OVER line goes higher, Favorite, fav gets bigger, Dog, dog gets smaller) it's a bad sign. Steam is what they call it. Steam losses more often than it wins here by a large ptc. Keep track of Steam on your own. Some of you probably already keep track of it a probably benefit by fading the shit out of steam moves. Have my hands full Capping these games so I don't have any grasp on money moves. Just the simple observation above. Would like to hear from some of you on your experiences with line moves.

 

[GLJJNOVA]

I watch line moves carefully, noting opening and closing lines. Generally, I don't find moves of 1-2 points to be very significant. Anything 3 or above does signal red flags. I like to make my plays as late as possible. The downside of this method is that I don't always get the best value. But I'm always aware of where the steam is.

Gary

 

[ShinySuitMan]

OR,

I just like to say first of all I enjoy reading your posts and you provide good insight into why you are playing your selections. Sorry to see your last couple plays have not won. This is the NBA it's not easy! All of us have to roll with the punches.

I watch lines closely and one thing I have noticed lately is line moves of 3 points or more in the past week or so have not hit high percentage of times. These moves a few of those times I am sure may have been the books moving the line on air. Maybe steam I am not 100% sure.
Classic example of this I believe was the Phi@ Bos game few nights ago. Boston was -7/-6.5 overnight and moved to -4 sometime in the morning before the game, even though the public consensus was all over Bos? Naturally I thought maybe Iverson will play or maybe Pierce was injured but this was never the case and Boston took Philly to the cleaners! Why the line move? Wiseguys? Nothing really wise about it.

I like to also make my plays as late as possible which I find to be better then earlier because of a number of factors(value). But on totals sometimes i miss value because of this as the lines on totals have been moving wildly lately from overnight to morning. Most of the time i pass on that intended play and even look to go the other way (depending on how much the line has moved).

Another thing on lines lately on totals. Books have been hanging some real bait lines lately. Sucking in the public to play the line, almost making it look so easy on purpose. Smart. You have to tread carefully. it's been a real grind lately in NBA! Can't wait for playoffs and bases is here so thats great! Just my opinion, good luck with your future plays OR.

[This message was edited by Shiny Suit Man on March 31, 2004 at 03:17 PM.]

 

[Anonymous1]

shiny...not sure i understand how you lose value on totals...if you follow the line moves are you not gaining a perspective, regardless of how you view the game...either you are a public distruster...and bet opposite...or you follow the steam thing...wiseguys thing..or whatever...my point is simply if you remain consistent on how you view a line move...or no move...then it seems to me it adds value because you have more info to apply to your side of the equation....

 

[dolphin]

I would second Cheap Seats' comments.

Specifically, on the Celtic/76er game. CRIS opened at 8...most of the real money came in at +6, with another wave at +5. For awhile it seemed that one of those players' status might change, but the reality is that 3 or 4 was probably the fair number. Phily shot MISERABLY in the first half...23%, I think, and I recall 2 of 7 FTs. This was only minimally due to good 'D' from the Celtics. Phily dominated the glass for a long time, although their second and third offensive tries were largely unsuccessful. A 19 pt. halftime deficit could just as easily been a tie score. Resulting it to fit your argument is something we all need to be careful of...

 

[ShinySuitMan]

Thanks for comments guys. I will post later with some better examples for you. Boston example is not really a good example your right. Sorry.

Just seen something interesting someone noticed in another forum. A whole lot of totals today were changed by books by 2/3 pts towards the under at the same time. This happened at not just one book, but numerous books. Back later