Tuesday Bet O The Day 5/18

[OccamsRazor]

PLAYOFFS 2008/2009
YTD 16-12 (57%)
SIDES 5-8 (38%)
TOTALS 11-4 (73%)

Lost with Celts last time out.

LK/DEN UNDER 214' (<)<

Although both will be facing the best offense either of them have seen this far into the playoffs, both have learned their lessons,"We got this far due to DEFENSE."

 

[the1yankee]

like it gl

 

[OccamsRazor]

From VegasInsider:


Karl said he, too, has a feeling the Nuggets' fortunes are about to change.

``Over the last two years, I think we tried to play their game. We tried to outscore them,'' Karl said. ``They were a better offensive team than we were. I think the difference right now is we've tried to become more of a balanced team, a defensive team, a physical team.

``It seems like those teams do have more success against the Lakers than the teams that try to outscore them.''

 

[OccamsRazor]

"We got this far due to DEFENSE."

Round 1 First game 7/1 OV/UN

Round 2 First game 0/4 OV/UN

The better defensive teams survived Round 1.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Most on the board starting to go with the UNDER, not a good sign.

Biggest hurdle facing UNDER bettors is the freethrow made category. Denver is #1 in the league while Lakers are #10.

Freethrows are free points without clock and the number 1 killer of UNDERS.

Last time out, these 2 hooked up for 62 Freethrows out of 75 attempts 82% and a resulting 218 total. Thats a hell of a lot of attempts.

We don't want to see a freethrowathon break out tonight.

 

[OccamsRazor]

These 2 averaged 195 points head to head in regular season. Average line was 211. The UNDER was 3-1.

Line today is 215, 4 points higher than the regular season 211 and 20 points higher than what these 2 averaged during the regular season.

This is a situation where statistically UNDER bettors can take advantage of the public OVER bias and the linemakers need to account for that bias. The Total is off on the OVER by at least 10 points. If the man puts out anything lower than 210 he will get Sided with OVER money. The majority of bettors instinctively bet OVER regardless. As it stands he put out a 214' and it still got bet up.

But remember this is just another bet in this series, use proper money management, if it goes OVER we'll have to see why and make the proper adjustments.

Denver tends to leave its offense at home. GL

 

[chewbakarox]

OR - As always, love the logic behind your plays. I was leaning under too, and you just solidified it for me. Let's cash.

 

[OccamsRazor]

41 point third solidified the UNDER. 17 blocks between the 2 and Denver uncharacteristically missing freethrows helped.

Congrats to those on the UNDER.

:toast:

 

[dangots0uL]

right on as usual OR.