Tuesday Bet O The Day 5/12

[OccamsRazor]

PLAYOFFS 2008/2009
YTD 13-10 (56.5%)
SIDES 3-6 (25%)
TOTALS 10-4 (71%)

Split 2 Totals on SUNDAY. 1-1 last time out.


LA/HOUST 3 game series now. You will see a double digit spread when one opponent has overwhelming superiority over another, (See Clev/Atlanta)that is not the case in the LA/Hst series.

HOUSTON +12 (<)<

Wanted to get this up early, think the line gets to 11' before 12'. (I'm usually wrong when it comes to line movement, though)

 

[OccamsRazor]

Line holding steady at 12. 7am pacific.

From sportsnetwork:

El Segundo, CA (Sports Network) - Los Angeles Lakers forward Lamar Odom has been diagnosed with a bruised lower back following a CT scan and MRI exam on Monday and is questionable for Game 5 of their Western Conference semifinal series with Houston.

Odom got airborne on a drive to the hoop and made contact with the Rockets' Shane Battier before landing hard on the floor during Sunday's Game 4 loss to Houston. He lay on the floor writhing in pain before getting up under his own power with 6:01 remaining in the third quarter but did not return.

The 10-year NBA pro is averaging 13.7 points, 10 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.7 blocks in 34.2 minutes through nine games in the playoffs, including five starts.

In 78 regular season games (32 starts) this season, the Rhode Island product posted averages of 11.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.3 blocks over 29.7 minutes per game.

LA and Houston are knotted at two games apiece in this best-of-seven series with Game 5 set for Tuesday in Los Angeles.

 

[OccamsRazor]

LAKERS 1-2 ATS laying DD at home in playoffs.

Houston second time all season receiving DDs. Received +10 in Boston and covered.

 

[dangots0uL]

I remember houston got +9 against the lakers earlier this season... played well until the 4th and that was all she wrote.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Adding:

The last 2 years, World Champs have shown up everytime they've needed to, Wait someones' at the door...

Boston-2 (<)<

 

[diop]

surprised your on boston.. large % of public is on them.. thought u dont like betting where public goes

 

[OccamsRazor]

1-1

Some post game thoughts:

You learn more from your losers than yo do from your winners.
My worst loss of the season, 40 fucking points and you know what, a huge error in judgement on my part. You'll always be getting the better of it, if you just take the more motivated team.(Lakers) The biggest motivator is embarrassment. If a team is embarrassed (Lakers) look at them to come out on fire the next game. Right up there as a motivation factor is if one of your main players is missing (See Houston last game). Now I got tunnel vision and my decision was made basically on the 12 points that Houston was getting, I thought it was too much. But if I would have considered motivation, I would have said 12 is nothing Lakers are gonna blow Houston away, they got embarrassed last game. Sure enough.

Now Houston just got embarrassed whats going to happen next game? Its either Houston or a pass for me.



Boston the more motivated (3 game series, first game at home, whose more motivated?) and experienced team showed championship form.

Come on guys give them some credit, I see people saying Boston is lucky, lucky? I say they're battle tested and fit for duty.

With 8:43 left in the game Boston is down by 14, (17 if you laid 2 and want to win money not tie) 17 points and what the does Boston do? You thought Easter was over? Well apparently not cause Boston rises again! How many times is that? They played something like 97 overtime games, some with quadruple OTs thrown in and these guys just keep coming back. Amazing.

ope:

diop, i don t like being in with the public. but i dont know. I capp my games by myself make my picks and then i post em. Its then that i say "Oh shit I bet with the public.
I don't let public/sharp affect my decision. I dont even consider it.

 

[diop]

lol true true..sometimes the public is right too.. i was actually on orlando today and lakers.. and won both because i teased orlando to +7 so we both had good days..

tmw im definatley going to take the nuggets.. i think they hav an easy win at home, and like u say the more motivated team is a better choice

gl occam

 

[crazyivan]

I think DAL is nice price dog. They are undervalued.

 

[ryangenero]

lol true true..sometimes the public is right too.. i was actually on orlando today and lakers.. and won both because i teased orlando to +7 so we both had good days..

tmw im definatley going to take the nuggets.. i think they hav an easy win at home, and like u say the more motivated team is a better choice

gl occam

public side wins plenty, if it didnt no one would ever bet, they key is to find the right side and not BLINDLY follow public or trends