MLB Betting Picks & Tips
Atlanta at Washington (-175); Total: 8.5
So, I might be insane. I probably am. But, I cannot stop fading Gio Gonzalez. It hasn’t worked yet and maybe it isn’t going to, but the numbers are so heavily in our favor regarding this that I can’t stop and won’t stop. One of these times, I’m going to look smart. Of course, I’ve told myself that for the last 10 years. Still waiting for that time.
Gio Gonzalez has a 2.50 ERA with a 3.89 FIP and a 4.28 xFIP. He has a .248 BABIP against and an 85 percent LOB%. My guess is that he’ll get absolutely rocked by the Cubs in the NLDS and that’s where his regression will show up, a la the Texas Rangers last season, but I’m still going to play on this. As far as qualified pitchers and LOB% go, Clayton Kershaw is #1, but conventional wisdom doesn’t apply to him. Gio Gonzalez is second at 85 percent. Robbie Ray is third at 84.9 percent. Max Scherzer is fourth at 83.6 percent. Lance Lynn is luckboxing his way to fifth at 82.7 percent. Corey Kluber is sixth at 80.9 percent. What do four of those six guys have in common? They strike out a ton of batters. Gio Gonzalez does not.
If we sort by BABIP against for pitchers, we find Ariel Miranda at the top at .226, but he has a 31.8 percent GB% and has given up a ton of home runs. Lance Lynn is second at .231, which is why the market continues to fade him. Max Scherzer is third at .239. Ervin Santana is fourth at .242. Jose Urena and Jeremy Hellickson come next and then Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez has the highest GB% of those seven pitchers. Basically, Gonzalez is getting remarkably lucky with batted ball luck and sequencing. That’s why I keep fading him, much to the detriment of my bankroll. These are the stats upon which my handicapping process is dependent.
Since the All-Star Break, Gonzalez has worked 66.1 innings with a .231 BABIP against and an 85.2 percent LOB%. He has a 1.90/3.38/4.27 pitcher slash. The Nationals aren’t even a good defensive team per defensive runs saved. They are -32 and rank 25th. UZR paints a prettier picture, where the Nationals rank 12th. So, at best, this would loosely be considered an average defensive team.
I’m going to keep doing this if it kills my bankroll, damnit.
Miami (-120) at Philadelphia; Total: 9
With Hurricane Irma now gone and cleanup underway, the Marlins head north to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies. Rookie southpaw Dillon Peters will take the mound against Nick Pivetta. Peters has been solid in his two starts and was solid in the minors for the Marlins this season. The left-hander has a 14/5 K/BB ratio over his first 12 MLB innings with just three runs allowed on nine hits. The strikeout spike at the MLB level is pretty surprising. It’s hard to get a great gauge on Peters at the MiLB level because he didn’t spend a whole lot of time at most of his stops. This season, he worked 6.2 innings in rookie ball, 10.2 innings at High-A, and 45.2 innings at Double-A. At each stop, he was effective. He’s showcased plus command at each stop and decent control.
There seems to be a fair amount to like about the diminutive lefty. Peters is just 5-foot-9, which can be a tricky arm slot for hitters to pick up. The first trip around the league should be really good for him. Regarding long-term success, I don’t really know. This is his second time facing the Phillies, so we’ll see if that lineup makes any adjustments. I’d look to play on Peters in September facing teams for the first time, but the second time around could be a different story.
On the other hand, Nick Pivetta isn’t having much of a season. His strikeout rate is impressive, but his problem through the minors was command and it remains a problem at the MLB level. Pivetta has a 6.49 ERA with a 5.00 FIP and a 4.39 xFIP. Pivetta has over a strikeout per inning in his 111 innings of work, but he has a .341 BABIP against and has allowed 22 HR with an 18 percent HR/FB%. Command means everything. Pivetta just doesn’t have much of it.
Even though Peters is facing the Phillies for the second time, the Marlins appear to have a minor edge in that department and bigger edges in other areas now that they have gotten healthier and have something closer to a regular lineup with Justin Bour back in the mix. I’ll lay the short price on the road.
Detroit at Cleveland (-420); Total: 8
Just a quick note here. The biggest favorite ever tracked is when the Dodgers were -485 against Atlanta last season. It seems unlikely that the Indians get to that point, but -435 is the second-highest. That seems attainable as the Tribe goes for win #20 in a row on Tuesday night with ace Corey Kluber on the mound.
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (-115); Total: 8.5
Doesn’t it feel like the Pirates and Brewers have played each other about 75 times this season? They’ll play again today at Miller Park with Gerrit Cole for the Buccos and Brent Suter for the Brewers. Cole has a 3.93 ERA with a 4.08 FIP and a 3.88 xFIP on the season. He’s having a fine year and, most importantly, he has stayed healthy. Cole only worked 116 innings at the MLB level last season. This season, he has crossed 180 innings. Cole’s peripherals are all solid, minus a spike in HR/FB%, but he’s not the only one around the league that has experienced a similar increase.
Cole’s stuff is still lively, with at least six strikeouts in each of his last six outings. He hasn’t allowed a home run in his last three starts, which is a great sign, though the cooling weather conditions and the PNC Park factor are contributing factors. One thing that is a little bit notable is that Cole, who traditionally doesn’t walk batters, has walked seven over his last 14 innings. At this stage of the game, we’re looking for little outliers on guys with high workloads. Cole had injury issues last season and has managed to avoid them this season, so any sort of outlier piques my interest.
Brent Suter has been a nice piece for the Brewers. In 10 starts and eight relief outings, Suter has a 3.55 ERA with a 4.02 FIP and a 4.31 xFIP. As a starter, specifically, Suter has held the opposition to a .246/.299/.409 slash in his 52 innings of work. He has a 3.63 ERA with a 4.19 FIP and a 4.16 xFIP. That’s a bit better than league average in a season like this one. Suter hasn’t thrown in six days after making a short relief appearance on September 6, so we’ll see how sharp he is. Suter came back on September 3 and only made a three-inning start, so he won’t be working deep into this game. That creates a lot of uncertainty and a high-variance environment with relievers having to pick up the slack.
I’ll be staying off of this game as a result. If you’re dying to take a position, I’d look at Cole and the Pirates, since we have a reasonable expectation for Cole and we do not for the Brewers.
Colorado at Arizona (-130); Total: 9
Jon Gray and Taijuan Walker fire it up as the Rockies and Diamondbacks battle for NL Wild Card supremacy. As action begins on Tuesday, the Rockies trail the Diamondbacks by four games for home field advantage in the one-game playoff. The Cardinals are 3.5 in back of the Rockies and the Brewers are four out, so it would take a collapse from Colorado to fall out of that Wild Card game.
Jon Gray is a guy that I am looking to back right now. Gray has a 4.07 ERA with a 3.46 FIP and a 3.65 xFIP. Gray’s BABIP against of .340 is a little steep, even for a guy with his ground ball rate. He has allowed more hard contact this season and has gotten far fewer swings and misses, so it isn’t a big surprise, but Gray is still a guy that should have some better metrics. It’s also worth pointing out that he has been worse on the road, with a .284/.342/.448 slash against. That’s surprising given his home ballpark. A quick check shows that Gray has a .363 BABIP against on the road. He has a 24 percent K% on the road, so his stuff has been better away from home, which is another reason why I’m looking for some positive regression in that split.
Taijuan Walker is a little bit of a regression candidate in the other direction with a 3.33 ERA, a 4.01 FIP, and a 4.39 xFIP. Walker has a 10.9 percent HR/FB%, so I’m not too worried about the xFIP. What does concern me is that he has around a league average strikeout rate with a well below average swinging strike rate. The Diamondbacks are a quality defensive team, though, and have an excellent bullpen, which can help starters in terms of ERA because of runners left on base. Still, I look at Walker and see some concerning signs for his last few starts. Nothing overly significant, but enough to push me towards the Rockies in this spot. I’ll roll the dice on them as an underdog here and consider a live opportunity to buy back on Arizona and the strength of their bullpen if it’s a close game late.
Houston (-130) at Los Angeles; Total: 8
My first take on this line is that it is too low. Justin Verlander has a 3.74 ERA with a 4.04 FIP and a 4.37 xFIP on the year. He was a winner in his first start with the Astros and struck out seven with just one walk in his six innings of work. Getting away from the SS Detroit Tiger as it sinks into oblivion had to be big for Verlander. Now he’s in the midst of a home field advantage race on a playoff team. He’s also a pretty good pitcher, got a massive defensive upgrade, and has a team that will plant an analytics bug in his ear. I have to think that somebody like Verlander, who understands the value of high spin rate fastballs up in the zone would be receptive to some suggestions based on the metrics and numbers. I think this is a match made in heaven for both teams and I think it is a big deal heading into the postseason.
It was good to see Garrett Richards back on the mound. Over the last two seasons, Richards has only worked 42.2 innings at the MLB level. He’s an extremely talented guy with a sinker that is like hitting a bowling ball. Injuries have sidelined him in a big way. Richards worked 3.1 innings in his return a week ago with one run allowed on four hits. He struck out three and walked one. The concern here is that Richards will probably go four innings at most. The Astros are a pretty patient lineup, so they’ll be invested in working deep counts to get Richards out quickly. Injuries or not, the quality of stuff from whoever replaces Richards won’t be the same.
The Astros are the look today. This is a great venue for a fly ball guy like Verlander. Richards is a big question mark as he works his way back. I’m definitely interested in the favorite.