Mohawk: Tuesday 8/25 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale
DRF HARNESS
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
EARLY PICK 4:
1,6,10/7,8/1,7,8/1,8 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 7/1,6,7,8/2,7,8/2,6,9 = $36
MEET STATS: 246 - 813 / $1407.60 BEST BETS: 33 - 73 / $110.60
SPOT PLAYS: 9 - 70 / $73.10
Best Bet: MEADOW SEELSTER (2nd)
Spot Play: GALAGHER SEELSTER (11th)
Race 1
(1) ASTERIX has delivered sub-29 second speed in his final quarters the last two times he's raced at Mohawk. He's worth a try here at a price because although (9) MARION MARAUDER raced great in the New Jersey Sires Stakes in his past two starts, he's now missed more than a month's racing yet still will be heavily-bet. (2) CLASSICAL SON looked beat last time until the last couple of strides but managed to chase down a loose leader. That effort was a big improvement but it did come via a perfect trip.
Race 2
(2) MEADOW SEELSTER chased a sharp older mare around the track last time and wasn't beaten far in a good effort. She's proven in Grassroots company and will take some beating here. (8) MASS RAIL was too far back and started up too late last week but was still only beaten by less than two lengths. She is the main danger to the choice. (4) ILL STAY HERE was third in the Dream of Glory final and looks best of the rest but likely won't threaten the top two if they stay flat.
Race 3
(3) ROSES IN THE RAIN tried the inside lane on the stretch last week but lacked room. Back facing exclusively her own sex here she should be tough. (1) RAILEE PRITTI surged in the final strides to nail a tired leader on a night where the off track was killing speed. She may be overbet off that perfect-trip win. (4) GIONA beat a decent field at Georgian after starting from the worst post and shouldn't be overlooked here.
Race 4
(6) COLLECTIVE WISDOM is a half-sister to several good ones including Luck Of Michelle, who won her first 7 starts and $907K lifetime. The late speed that this filly has displayed in her qualifiers indicates readiness; top call. (1) HEAVENLY BET has faced only stakes company so far and picked up a check each time. She should be competitive here. (10) SINGIT LIKE ARETHA may not have liked the off track last week. Don't dismiss too lightly.
Race 5
(8) ALLERAGE STAR was a decent third in open stakes company down south last time, faces easier, bit will also take the bulk of the wagering support. She looks best, but, what price would you take? (7) COLORATURA hasn't been able to fish out cover the past two starts and tired after first-over treks. Starting farther out she figures to latch onto cover and Zeron will be winding her up turning home; beware. (1) DESIS DREAM was a powerful winner two back then broke early at Georgian. A repeat of the August 1 mile puts her right there with these.
Race 6
(8) NATES BUCKY closed a big gap late in his debut and can build on that here in his second lifetime start. Henry will likely float out and try to get a better spot early here. (7) PICK SIX chased a very fast pace for this class and didn't tire horribly. He figures here. (1) CAJON LIGHTNING has a good late kick and should grab a share starting from the inside.
Race 7
(1) HURRICANE HAZEL, like most of the field, had trouble keeping up to very swift splits last time but was kicking in with her late charge when the wire hit. She should be able to lay closer here and mow these down late. (8) GS GRASSHOPPER uncorked a lifetime-best mile last time and that turnaround should be respected. (7) WORLD CLASS IZZY was heavily-bet last time and managed only a third-place finish. She can share here but is doubtful for the win end.
Race 8
(7) DERBY DYLAN was an easy winner in a new life's best mark off the claim last week and stands a good chance of doubling up here. (1) DADDY WARBUCKS was hung the mile at Clinton and still only beaten 2 1/2 lengths. His race two back here at Mohawk puts him right there vs. these. (4) POKER HAT showed nothing from an outer post last time now drops and moves inside five slots; improvement expected.
Race 9
(1) VAL AMERICA was on too much cover that wasn't advancing last week yet still finished a good third. He picks up Filion here which has been a high % angle this entire meet; top call. (6) IDOLE DUHARAS escapes the hot Genesee and should threaten here after finishing 2nd to him in the past two starts. (7) CRUZIN K C drops into claimers for the first time and will be passing horses late.
Race 10
(8) HAPE closed a huge gap late last week and should have a better shot here if Jackie Mo can float her out and beat a couple of horses to the first 1/4. She is one of several until that can win this. (2) RENEGADE MAGIC fell one step short last time as a big chalk and can make amends here. (7) POINTE OF INQUIRY made a big third 1/4 brush, opened up a gap on the field and just held on. Don't underestimate this owner/trainer/driver who does very well with his own stock.
Race 11
(6) GALLAGHER SEELSTER has shown rapid improvement in late speed in his past two starts and will likely be a square price here; call to upset. (2) ABSOLUTLY OFFICIAL looked like a winner last week but had no answer for the winner that slipped off the rail mid-stretch and exploded down the lane. He is the one to beat here. (9) NEW MIRACLE has a serious late kick and need only be within 5 or 6 lengths of the lead at the 3/4 pole to have a shot here. (3) DERBY DALE raced well to nab a check and could do the same here starting from the inside. (5) ALONEINSPADES raced okay at Sarnia last time and could fill one of the lower rungs of the exotic wagers here.
