NBA Game 1 - Rockets at Warriors
By Chris David
The Western Conference Finals beginTuesday from Oracle Arena as No. 1 Golden State meets No. 2 Houston in a best-of-seven series. Even though this matchup pits the top two teams in the West against one another, not many could’ve expected this pair reaching the conference finals at the beginning of the season.
In early October veteran oddsmaker Jay Kornegay and his staff at the Westgate Las Vegas has Golden State and Houston both listed as 12/1 betting choices to win the West, behind the Spurs, Thunder and Clippers.
The Rockets haven’t played in the conference finals since 1997 while the Warriors haven’t made a trip since 1976, the same year they also claimed the franchise’s only NBA Finals championship.
While the pair were once considered equals nearly seven months ago, the same cannot be said now. Golden State has been installed as a minus-750 series favorite (Bet $100 to win $13) at Sportsbook.ag with Houston listed at plus-550 underdog. (Bet $100 to win $550).
For Game 1, the Warriors are 10-point favorites at most betting shops and NBA expert Tony Mejia isn’t surprised by the number.
He said, “It wasn’t a shock to see that oddsmakers went ahead and placed the Game 1 point spread at double-digits, a sure slap in the face to the Rockets, but circumstances dictate that they should protect themselves against a potential blowout. For starters, think about how Houston started its last series, faltering at home against the Chris Paul-less Clippers. The Rockets ended up winning in seven games, but as a result of becoming the ninth team in NBA history to erase a 3-1 playoff series deficit, they had to turn right around and start focusing on Golden State, which includes traveling the few hours into Oakland after prevailing on Sunday afternoon. That’s a short turnaround for a team that had such little success in their four regular-season meetings against the Warriors, losing every time by at least 11 points.”
Playing on one day rest won’t be easy for Houston but it did go 33-14 under these circumstances during the regular season and 5-4 in the playoffs. Golden State hasn’t played since Friday when it eliminated Memphis in Game 6 on the road. The Warriors will have had three full days of rest for Game 1 and they’ve gone 6-1 both straight up and against the spread this season with that long of a break.
It’s rare to see this big of a favorite in the conference finals but it’s hard to argue the number, especially when you look at the recent head-to-head history.
Golden State hammered Houston four time this season, winning and covering each contest while averaging 115 points per game. The last two encounters took place in mid-January and Golden State posted 131 and 126 points versus Houston. While those offensive efforts were tremendous, Mejia isn’t putting as much stock into the head-to-head meetings as others.
He explained, “The Rockets come into the series telling themselves that things are much different than the last time they saw Golden State, since Josh Smith had just arrived in late December and only played a combined 31 minutes in his team’s two January losses. Patrick Beverley and Donatas Motiejunas were in the starting lineup for both January encounters, while James Harden shot 13-for-33 in those games.”
“The games that were contested in 2014 can also be thrown out since Dwight Howard wasn’t 100 percent and guys like Tarik Black (Lakers) and Isaiah Canaan (76ers) started before being moved off the roster. In the present, Howard’s ability to control the paint, Jason Terry’s ability to continue playing strong defense in the team concept and hanging around in the rebounding battle loom as major points of emphasis. Howard squaring off with Andrew Bogut should be huge, as both will need to avoid foul trouble to serve as their team’s primary rim protector. Both are physical and prone to extra-curricular activity, so it will be interesting to see how they handle the bad blood sure to develop over the course of a series.”
Another Houston player that didn’t face the Warriors this season was forward Terrance Jones, who is finally healthy and another weapon on Houston’s deep bench that has experience. Will Rockets head coach Kevin McHale be able to use that postseason experience to his advantage or does Golden State’s talent win out.
Mejia answered, “The Warriors have a statement to make early, which puts the pressure squarely on their shoulders as they look to make the top homecourt advantage in the NBA hold up. Counting the playoffs, Golden State is 43-3 this season at ORACLE Arena, so dropping either of the first two games would really complicate matters, not only in terms of momentum, but also confidence. While the Rockets’ mantra is rightfully all about what transpired in the regular-season not mattering, the Warriors want to increase their aura of invincibility before visiting Houston.”
“Draymond Green will be the top defensive power forward that Terrence Jones and Smith will face, a key since they often created mismatches against the Clippers and Mavericks. Splash brothers Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson will have to deal with gifted perimeter defenders Trevor Ariza and Corey Brewer, but get a reprieve facing Harden and Terry, who could struggle against guys who move around so much, especially since larger wings Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala may occupy Trevor Ariza's and Corey Brewer's attention due to the damage they can do taking the ball into the paint. Conversely, Thompson is likely to draw Harden quite a bit and must continue to hold up as one of the NBA's top two-way players.”
Curry and Thompson averaged a combined 47.3 points per game in the four regular season meetings against Golden State while Harden countered the pair with 25.3 PPG.
As Mejia mentioned, Golden State has gone 43-3 at home and it has produced a solid 28-17-1 against the spread record for bettors. In the playoffs, the number has dropped off to 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS.
Including the postseason, the Warriors have been installed as double-digit home favorites 32 times this season. The club has gone 30-2 SU and 17-14-1 ATS during this span. One of the two losses came in the postseason, which occurred in Game 2 of the conference semifinals to Memphis, 97-90.
Houston has been a very respectable road team, going 28-17 SU and 23-22 ATS this season. Bettors should make a note the point-spread has only matter once to Houston in the playoffs when they beat the Clippers 115-109 in Game 2 but failed to cover as a 7 ½-point favorite. In the other 11 playoff games, Houston won and covered easily or was blown out by double digits, which happened in all four losses.
It’s been two years since the Rockets have been listed as double-digit underdogs. Coincidentally it happened in the postseason, when Houston was facing Oklahoma City in the first round of the 2013 playoffs.
The Warriors are a 1/7 money-line favorite (Bet $100 to win $14) to win Game 1 while bettors can take a chance with the Rockets at 5/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $500) to steal the opener.
A lot of pundits, including myself believe the Warriors will sweep this series.
A 4-0 win for Golden State returns 9/5 while the same result by Houston would net you 150/1 odds, a task most would deem impossible. Since 1971 there have only been nine sweeps in the West Finals, the last instance coming in 2013. During the same span, we’ve seen eight Game 7’s in this conference finals, the last coming in 2002 when David Stern allegedly made the “call” for the Los Angeles Lakers to best the Sacramento Kings.
Total players are starting at a number between 219 and 220 for the opener. During the regular season, total ranged from 204 ½ to 219 and the ‘over/under’ went 2-2 in those games.
Houston has been a clear-cut ‘over’ team in the playoffs, going 9-3 in its first 12 games. Ironically, the ‘under’ tickets occurred when the Rockets played their best defense, which is something they’re not known for despite having Howard in the middle.
Golden State has been the complete opposite of Houston, posting a 7-2-1 mark to the ‘under’ in the playoffs. The Warriors potent offense steals all the headlines in the Bay Area but this is arguably the best defense in the NBA, especially this postseason.
As many bettors have learned, playing the ‘under’ in Houston games is a very dicey situation with the inordinate amount of 3-point and free throw attempts it takes. The Rockets are allowing 111.5 PPG in the playoffs and they’re facing an offense that scores in bunches. When you combine all those facts, it’s hard to argue against the ‘over’ in their games.
Warriors backup forward Marreese Speights (calf) missed the final three games of the Memphis series and has been ruled ‘out’ for Game 1. He averaged just over 11 PPG versus the Rockets in the regular season.
Tip-off for Tuesday’s contest starts at 9:00 p.m. ET with ESPN providing national coverage.
Game 2 will take place on Thursday from Oracle Arena.
