STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 3/4/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 3/4/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Tuesday's Notebook
•Iowa State (-7) beat Baylor 87-72 Jan 7, shooting 65% inside arc; they won last four games with Baylor, winning 87-82 in last trip here, but the home side is 12-1 in last 13 series games. Big X home favorites of 3 or less points are 2-4 versus spread. Cyclones are 1-1 when a road dog. Baylor won five of last six games; this is more important game for them; Bears won their last three home games, but two of them were in overtime.
•Michigan won its last five games with Illinois, winning by 11-14 points in last two visits here. Wolverines won last three games, are 0-3 as road favorites- underdogs covered eight of their nine road games. Illini won its last three games after starting 3-10 in league play; they're 0-4 as home underdogs, with all five home losses by 7+ points. Big Dozen home underdogs of 4 or less points are 7-6 against the spread.
•Home team won eight of last nine Buffalo-Akron games; Bulls lost three of last four visits here, but beat Zips 96-90 (-5) Feb 19, in game where both teams scored 1.36+ ppp, maybe worst defensive game in country all year. MAC home teams are 18-13 versus spread if number was 3 or less points. Buffalo won four in row, seven of last eight games; they've won last four road games. Akron lost three of last four games, covered once in their last nine games.
•Creighton (-11) beat Georgetown 76-63 at home Jan 25, despite Hoyas holding McDermott to 14 points. Bluejays split last six road games (2-4 vs. spread); they struggled in last two games, losing at Xavier after close home win over Seton Hall. Big East home underdogs of 4 or less points are 7-5 versus spread. Hoyas won last three home games, are 2-4-1 as a dog; their home losses are to Seton Hall (10), Marquette (8), Villanova (5).
•Florida made 21-26 (80.8%) inside arc in 74-58 (-16.5) win Jan 8 in SEC opener over South Carolina; Gators are 14-0 in SEC, have rivalry game with Kentucky coming up- trap game here versus South Carolina team that upset Kentucky Saturday, is 4-4 at home in SEC (2-0-1 as home dogs). Florida won last two visits to Columbia by 19-14 points. Florida is 3-4 as a road favorite. SEC home underdogs of 9+ points are 4-0 versus spread.
•Miami won its last three games with Clemson by 3-2-13 points; they've lost four of last five visits here, are 5-1 as ACC road underdogs, losing only one road game by more than 7 points. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-17 versus spread. Both teams won three of last four games; Clemson is 3-2 as home favorite after beating Maryland in double OT on Sunday. Miami covered six of its last nine games overall.
•Georgia State (-9.5) nipped Arkansas State 73-72 at home Jan 16- they led by 10 at half, then trailed by 7 with 4:10 left as ASU made 11-28 3's. Sun Belt home teams are 13-18 versus spread in games with spread of 3 or less points. GSU won 19 of last 20 games, has 4-game lead in Sun Belt; they're 6-1 as road favorites, winning last two road games by 28-11 points. Arkansas State won last five home games, is 2-1-1 as a dog.
•Marquette (-4.5) beat Providence Jan 30, its 10th win in row versus Friars; Eagles led 31-14 at half in brickfest where teams were 5-30 on arc. Big East home favorites of 5 or less points are 11-8 versus spread. Marquette is 5-1 in last six games overall, 2-3 as road underdogs- they won three of last four on road, after losing first three. Providence won five of its last seven at home, covered three of last four as a home favorite.
•Home side won eight of last nine Florida State-Boston College games, as Seminoles lost last four visits here, by 8-3-5-4 points. FSU is playing on short rest in cold climate, has Syracuse coming to Tallahassee Saturday, so trap game here. ACC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 4-12 versus spread. BC lost seven of last nine games, six of seven at home, but they did win at Syracuse. Seminoles are 4-4 on road, 2-1 as road favorites.
•Arizona State (-3) beat Oregon 74-72 at home Feb 8, blocking layup at buzzer to preserve game they led by 20 at half. ASU lost last two trips to Eugene, by 9-3 points; they're 1-5 as road underdogs, with four of its five road losses by 9+ points. Pac-12 home favorites of 7 or less points are 13-11 versus spread. Oregon is squarely on bubble; they've won five in row after sweeping LA trip. Ducks are 1-6 though as home favorites.
Horizon Tournament
•Oakland swept Youngstown this year, 86-85 (-3.5) at home, then 87-81 (+4) on road three days ago; Grizzlies were 20-49 from the ark in those games, 10-22 Saturday. Horizon home teams are 6-17 versus spread in games where spread was 3 or less points. Penguins lost seven of their last nine games, losing last three by total of nine points- three of their last seven games went OT. Oakland is 0-7 versus spread in its last seven home games.
•Road team won both Detroit-Milwaukee games this year; Panthers won 68-62 (+6.5) in Motor City five nights ago, after losing 73-54 (-3.5) at home to Titans Jan 24. Detroit lost last three games overall, but covered last six on road. Horizon home favorites of 4 or less points are 4-16 versus spread. Milwaukee's win Thursday snapped a four-game losing streak. Detroit is 0-3 in first round games if under .500 in conference.
•Valparaiso swept Ill-Chicago this year, 87-72 (-11.5) at home Jan 2, and 70-46 (-4.5) on road Feb 1; they've now won ten games in row versus UIC, but Crusaders lost three of their last four games overall. UIC is terrible but they're 6-2 versus spread as road underdog, getting only conference win in last road game. Horizon home favorites of 9+ points are 8-6 versus spread. UIC lost five of last six first round conference tournament games.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- MARYLAND is 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) in home games after a game with 51 or more rebounds since 1997.
The average score was MARYLAND 82.6, OPPONENT 62.5.
-- VIRGINIA TECH is 17-2 UNDER (+14.8 Units) after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was VIRGINIA TECH 60.3, OPPONENT 65.2.
-- IL-CHICAGO is 15-1 (+13.9 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after 2 straight games where they were called for 22 or more fouls since 1997.
The average score was IL-CHICAGO 33.5, OPPONENT 29.9.
-- AKRON is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total as a home favorite or pick versus the 1rst half line this season.
The average score was AKRON 25.0, OPPONENT 27.1.
-- LEONARD HAMILTON is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games after a game - where they attempted 20+ less shots than opponent as the coach of FLORIDA ST.
The average score was HAMILTON 71.4, OPPONENT 68.7.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- MONTANA ST is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) versus poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MONTANA ST 67.5, OPPONENT 72.9.
-- S FLORIDA is 15-1 UNDER (+13.9 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 57.9, OPPONENT 60.6.
-- ILLINOIS is 4-17 (-14.7 Units) against the 1rst half line versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ILLINOIS 27.0, OPPONENT 31.0.
-- AKRON is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was AKRON 29.9, OPPONENT 29.8.
-- MARK MONTGOMERY is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=12 assists/game as the coach of N ILLINOIS.
The average score was MONTGOMERY 54.9, OPPONENT 58.5.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Road underdogs of +145 to +350 versus the money line (S FLORIDA) - a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%), off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival against opponent off a road win.
(69-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (92.0%, +51.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -286.7
The average score in these games was: Team 71.3, Opponent 63.3 (Average point differential = +8)
The situation's record this season is: (13-2, +6.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (43-3, +35.1 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (197-44, +73.7 units).
-- Play Against - Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (FLA GULF COAST) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 15+ games.
(79-34 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.9%, +41.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (14-104 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 13.4
The average score in these games was: Team 62.5, Opponent 72.4 (Average point differential = -9.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 34 (29.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (25-11).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (52-27).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (152-99).
-- Play Against - Favorites of 10 or more points (MARYLAND) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against a poor shooting team (40-42.5%), after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games.
(58-24 since 1997.) (70.7%, +31.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (8-74)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 13.5
The average score in these games was: Team 61.9, Opponent 72.7 (Average point differential = -10.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 23 (28.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (12-7).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-10).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (30-15).
-- Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points versus the first half line (YOUNGSTOWN ST) - good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game against a poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (20-40%).
(53-21 since 1997.) (71.6%, +29.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 34.7, Opponent 29.1 (Average first half point differential = +5.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-10).
-- Play Against - Home favorites of 2 to 5.5 points versus the first half line (TEMPLE) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.
(66-30 since 1997.) (68.8%, +33.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 33.3, Opponent 33.8 (Average first half point differential = -0.5)
The situation's record this season is: (3-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-7).
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Tuesday's Match-ups
#517 GEORGIA TECH @ #518 SYRACUSE
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ACC Network, ESPN3 - Line: Syracuse -14.5, Total: N/A) - Less than three weeks ago, Syracuse was ranked No. 1 with a perfect 25-0 record and a clear path toward a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But after three losses in their last four games, the seventh-ranked Orange are desperate for a win when they face Georgia Tech in their home finale Tuesday night. Syracuse has struggled in its recently victories, as well, with its last three wins coming by a total of five points.
"Nobody wants to lose," Syracuse leading scorer C.J. Fair told reporters. "But there's no panic in here when we do. We've just got to get back and play better and win these last two games." The Orange can no longer claim the top seed in the ACC Tournament - that honor will go to Virginia, which trounced Syracuse 75-56 on Saturday - but the Orange can potentially be seeded second, third or fourth. The Yellow Jackets, who will be one of the lower seeded teams in the ACC tourney, have dropped four straight games and six of their last seven.
•ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (13-16 SU, 10-12-1 ATS, 4-12 ACC): The Yellow Jackets have not fared well against ranked opponents this season, losing to Pittsburgh, Virginia and Duke (twice) by an average of 16.3 points. Offense has been the biggest issue for Georgia Tech, which ranks 283rd nationally in scoring (66.7) and 240th in field goal percentage (43.1). Sophomore forward Robert Carter Jr. has been Georgia Tech's best player over the last two games, averaging 19.5 points and eight rebounds over that stretch.
•ABOUT SYRACUSE (26-3 SU, 13-10-2 ATS, 13-3 ACC): The Orange have plenty of offensive problems themselves, having scored no more than 61 points in any of their last eight games. Fair, who will be honored on senior night, averages 16.3 points but has not shot above 50 percent in any of his last six contests. Trevor Cooney has been even worse, hitting no more than 40 percent of his shots in seven straight games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Cooney is 6-of-29 from 3-point range over his last four games.... Syracuse F Jerami Grant, limited to 13 minutes in each of the last two games due to a back injury, is considered day-to-day.... Georgia Tech C Daniel Miller averages 2.4 blocks and has recorded at least two in nine straight games.... Syracuse is 0-7 versus the spread after scoring 60 points or less two straight games over the last three seasons.... The Yellow Jackets are 8-19 against the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SYRACUSE covered the spread 534 times, while GEORGIA TECH covered the spread 466 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SYRACUSE won the game straight up 893 times, while GEORGIA TECH won 91 times. In 1000 simulated games, GEORGIA TECH covered the first half line 543 times, while SYRACUSE covered the first half line 457 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GEORGIA TECH is 2-1 against the spread versus SYRACUSE since 1997.
--SYRACUSE is 2-1 straight up against GEORGIA TECH since 1997.
--3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--GEORGIA TECH is 2-1 versus the first half line when playing against SYRACUSE since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--GT is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
--Under is 7-1 in GT last 8 Tue. games.
--Under is 7-3-1 in GT last 11 road games.
--SYR is 18-5 ATS in their last 23 Tue. games.
--Under is 18-7-2 in SYR last 27 overall.
--Under is 19-7 in SYR last 26 vs. Atlantic Coast.
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#519 IOWA ST @ #520 BAYLOR
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Baylor -2, Total: N/A) - Two teams with plenty to play for face off when No. 17 Iowa State visits Baylor in Big 12 play Tuesday night. The Cyclones who had a four-game win streak snapped at Kansas State on Saturday, began the week in a four-way tie for second place with Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas State while the Bears, who have won five of their last six games, are on the NCAA Tournament bubble and could hit the key 20-win milestone with a victory. "It's unavoidable if you watch ESPN," Bears guard Brady Heslip said when asked by the Waco Tribune if he monitors NCAA Tournament projections.
The Cyclones, who finish regular-season play with a home game against Oklahoma State on Saturday, covet finishing second in the conference and gaining the No. 2 seed for next week's Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City. That would mean being in the opposite bracket as regular-season champ Kansas and also facing a team in the quarterfinals that must play a first-round game a night earlier. Baylor, which begans the week tied for seventh with Oklahoma State, is a game out of sixth place and the accompanying first-round tourney bye but the Mountaineers still must play at Oklahoma and end the season at home against Kansas.
•ABOUT IOWA STATE (22-6 SU, 12-14-0 ATS, 10-6 Big 12): The Cyclones are one of just three schools nationally with three players averaging at least 16 points per game (VMI and Delaware are the others). Senior forward Melvin Ejim (18.9) leads the trio that includes senior guard DeAndre Kane (16.6) and sophomore forward Georges Niang (16.5). Ejim, who leads the Big 12 in scoring, ranks second in the conference in rebounding (8.6).
•ABOUT BAYLOR (19-10 SU, 9-12-2 ATS, 7-9 Big 12): The Bears are a deep team with four players averaging in double figures and three more averaging at least seven points. Senior forward Cory Jefferson leads the team in scoring (13.0) and rebounding (8.4). Heslip, one of the nation's premier shooters, is second in scoring (11.4) and shoots over 46 percent from 3-point range.
•PREGAME NOTES: Ejim has scored 20 or more points 12 times this year to go along with 10 double-figure rebounding efforts.... Baylor is averaging just six turnovers over its last three games.... Iowa State, which leads the Big 12 in scoring (83.2), has scored 80 or more points in 18 games and is the only team in college basketball to score 70 or more in every game.... Baylor is 6-15 against the spread versus good shooting teams - making more than 45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... The Cyclones are 2-10 versus the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST covered the spread 553 times, while BAYLOR covered the spread 425 times. *EDGE against the spread =IOWA ST. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST won the game straight up 496 times, while BAYLOR won 469 times. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST covered the first half line 551 times, while BAYLOR covered the first half line 423 times. *EDGE against first half line =IOWA ST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--IOWA ST is 14-8 against the spread versus BAYLOR since 1997.
--IOWA ST is 14-8 straight up against BAYLOR since 1997.
--9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--BAYLOR is 11-11 versus the first half line when playing against IOWA ST since 1997.
--8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Baylor.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ISU is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big 12.
--ISU is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
--Over is 23-8 in ISU last 31 vs. Big 12.
--BAY is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12.
--BAY is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
--Under is 6-1 in BAY last 7 Tuesday games.
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#521 MICHIGAN @ #522 ILLINOIS
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Michigan -3, Total: N/A) - No. 12 Michigan looks to clinch its first outright Big Ten championship since the 1985-86 season when it travels to Champaign to face Illinois on Tuesday. The Wolverines secured at least a share of the conference title with a 66-56 win over Minnesota and hope to beat the Fighting Illini for the sixth consecutive time. "I think we have really high-character kids on the team, who sort of have a sense of responsibility for their team and their teammates," coach John Beilein told reporters.
Illinois continued its late-season surge with a surprising 53-46 win at No. 22 Michigan State. The Fighting Illini have won three games in a row and four of their last six after dropping eight consecutive games and now look to defeat their second straight ranked opponent. "I'm really proud of our guys, because they've had to handle a lot of adversity," coach John Groce told reporters. "With that, I'm really proud of the way they've stayed the course."
•ABOUT MICHIGAN (21-7 SU, 14-11-1 ATS, 13-3 Big Ten): Big Ten Player of the Year candidate Nik Stauskas tops the Wolverines in scoring (17.1), assists (3.5) and 3-point field-goal percentage (44.4). Michigan is seventh in the country in fewest turnovers per game (9.5) and has turned the ball over 10 or fewer times in five straight outings. The Wolverines are ranked 20th nationally in field-goal percentage (47.7) and have shot 50 percent or better in 14 games this season.
•ABOUT ILLINOIS (17-12 SU, 12-12-4 ATS, 6-10 Big Ten): Rayvonte Rice has enjoyed a stellar season and leads the Fighting Illini in a number of different categories, including points (15.8), steals (1.6) and minutes (32.7). Tracy Abrams scored a team-high 12 points and had five steals and four assists in the win over Michigan State. Illinois posted a season-high 14 steals versus the Spartans and has recorded a total of 34 during its three-game winning streak.
•PREGAME NOTES: Michigan is 6-2 on the road in Big Ten play.... Illinois has held four consecutive opponents under 50 points.... The Wolverines are 27-0 under Beilein when scoring 80 or more points.... Michigan is 11-4 against the spread versus excellent ball handling teams - committing less than 12 turnovers/game this season.... The Illini are 1-9 versus the spread in home games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing less than 12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN covered the spread 588 times, while ILLINOIS covered the spread 386 times. *EDGE against the spread =MICHIGAN. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN won the game straight up 663 times, while ILLINOIS won 310 times. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN covered the first half line 561 times, while ILLINOIS covered the first half line 439 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MICHIGAN is 16-12 against the spread versus ILLINOIS since 1997.
--ILLINOIS is 19-10 straight up against MICHIGAN since 1997.
--14 of 24 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ILLINOIS is 14-13 versus the first half line when playing against MICHIGAN since 1997.
--14 of 24 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Wolverines are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Illinois.
--Home team is 21-6 ATS in the last 27 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MICH is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
--MICH is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
--Over is 20-7-1 in MICH last 28 road games.
--ILL is 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games.
--ILL is 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. Big Ten.
--Under is 35-17 in ILL last 52 overall.
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#533 CREIGHTON @ #534 GEORGETOWN
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Creighton -3.5, Total: N/A) - While Wooden Award favorite Doug McDermott continues to rewrite the record books, the success of No. 13 Creighton in the NCAA Tournament will ultimately come down to its supporting cast. McDermott's teammates will try to duplicate their performance against Georgetown last month when they visit the Hoyas on Tuesday. The Bluejays defeated Georgetown 76-63 on Jan. 25 as McDermott and Will Artino (career high) scored 14 points apiece to lead five Bluejays in double figures.
McDermott, who leads the nation with an average of 26 points per game, has scored 2,944 points and needs eight to pass Danny Manning and move into ninth on the NCAA all-time scoring list, with Oscar Robertson (2,973) next. McDermott scored 27 points - his eighth straight game with 25 or more since the first meeting against the Hoyas - in Creighton's 75-69 loss at Xavier on Saturday, which left it one game behind first-place Villanova in the Big East. Georgetown lost at Marquette 75-73 on Thursday for its third setback in the last four contests and appear headed for a postseason tournament, but not the one it envisioned at the start of the season.
•ABOUT CREIGHTON (23-5 SU, 15-11-0 ATS, 13-3 Big East): Senior forward Ethan Wragge is the only other double-figure scorer (11.2 points per game) for the Bluejays, who average 80.2 points - 20th in the nation - and have seven players averaging at least six points. McDermott, a 6-8 senior forward, averages a team-leading seven rebounds while making 88.7 percent of his free throws. Creighton is second in the country in assists at 18 per game, led by junior point guard Austin Chatman's 4.3.
•ABOUT GEORGETOWN (16-12 SU, 14-13-0 ATS, 7-9 Big East): The Hoyas, who finish the regular season at No. 6 Villanova on Saturday, must forget the disappointing loss to Marquette with a brutal finish to the regular season. "I'm proud of our team and the effort we put out (Saturday)," guard Jabril Trawick told reporters. "We can't hang our heads. We've got to get focused. If we bring the same energy against Creighton, I have confidence we will do well." Senior guard Markel Starks, who averages a team-leading 17 points and 3.9 assists, will play his final home game and combines with backcourt partner D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera (16.9 points) to account for 47.7 percent of the offense.
•PREGAME NOTES: McDermott is 27 points shy of the Big East record for points in a season of 468 set by Providence's Marshon Brooks in 2010-11.... McDermott is one of nine players in NCAA history to record 2,800 points and shoot better than 50 percent from the field, with only Manning (59.3) recording a higher field goal percentage than McDermott (55).... Creighton has won 28 straight games when ahead at halftime and 32 with the lead and five minutes remaining.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GEORGETOWN covered the spread 502 times, while CREIGHTON covered the spread 498 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON won the game straight up 597 times, while GEORGETOWN won 373 times. In 1000 simulated games, GEORGETOWN covered the first half line 515 times, while CREIGHTON covered the first half line 452 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CREIGHTON is 1-0 against the spread versus GEORGETOWN since 1997.
--CREIGHTON is 1-0 straight up against GEORGETOWN since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CREIGHTON is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against GEORGETOWN since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CRE is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Big East.
--CRE is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Under is 6-1 in Bluejays last 7 Tuesday games.
--GTWN is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Big East.
--GTWN is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--Over is 8-2 in GTWN last 10 Tue. games.
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#535 FLORIDA @ #536 S CAROLINA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Florida -12, Total: N/A) - Top-ranked Florida has the opportunity to become the first SEC team to go 18-0 in conference play as it enters the final week of the regular season. The Gators visit South Carolina on Tuesday and close at home against Kentucky on Saturday. “There are things out there for these guys to achieve,” coach Billy Donovan said Monday. “I think those guys would like to take on those challenges. All that stuff doesn’t make a difference if we don’t play well against South Carolina.”
The Gators have set a school mark with 21 consecutive victories as they face a South Carolina team brimming with confidence after Saturday’s stunning 72-67 upset of Kentucky. The Gamecocks are in 13th place in the 14-team SEC but have shown improvement of late with three wins in their last six games. Florida is 8-0 on the road in SEC play but only two of the victories – against Mississippi State (11 points) and Kentucky (10) – have come by double digits.
•ABOUT FLORIDA (27-2, 12-12-1 ATS, 16-0 SEC): Center Patric Young (10.7 points, 6.3 rebounds) has put up similar numbers for the third straight season but has found his senior season to be much more fun and memorable than the previous two. “I knew this was my last chance to do something great here,” said Young, pointing toward a possible deep NCAA Tournament run. “I just really wanted to give it my best shot by putting in the work.” Forward Casey Prather averages a team-high 14.8 points, followed by point guard Scottie Wilbekin (13.4) and guard Michael Frazier II (12.2).
•ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (11-18, 14-10-2 ATS, 4-12 SEC): Second-year coach Frank Martin is trying to revive the program and the victory over Kentucky was the program’s first over a ranked team on his watch. “I’ve been pushing these kids really hard so they can understand what it takes to win against quality teams,” Martin said after the victory. “We’ve been fighting and been in this moment numerous times this year and just have not been able to close it out.” Guard Brenton Williams averages a team-high 15 points while guard Sindarius Thornwell contributes 13.5 points per game.
•PREGAME NOTES: Florida has won the last five meetings, including a 74-58 home victory on Jan. 8.... The Gators made a season-high 13 3-pointers – double their 6.5 season average – during Saturday’s 79-61 victory over LSU.... Williams is shooting 95.3 percent from the free-throw line, missing just five of 107 attempts.... The Gamecocks are 11-29 versus the spread in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games since 1997.... The Gators are 7-20 against the spread as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, S CAROLINA covered the spread 513 times, while FLORIDA covered the spread 453 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA won the game straight up 786 times, while S CAROLINA won 180 times. In 1000 simulated games, S CAROLINA covered the first half line 544 times, while FLORIDA covered the first half line 408 times. *EDGE against first half line =S CAROLINA.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--S CAROLINA is 19-15 against the spread versus FLORIDA since 1997.
--FLORIDA is 25-9 straight up against S CAROLINA since 1997.
--11 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--FLORIDA is 17-16 versus the first half line when playing against S CAROLINA since 1997.
--12 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Gators are 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Gators are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in South Carolina.
--Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Road team is 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 13-3 in FLA last 16 Tue. games.
--Under is 26-11-1 in FLA last 38 overall.
--Under is 17-7-1 in FLA last 25 vs. Southeastern.
--SCAR is 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
--Under is 5-1 in SCAR last 6 Tuesday games.
--Under is 6-1 in SCAR last 7 vs. Southeastern.
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