STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/25/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 2/25/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Tuesday's Notebook
•Iowa (-8.5) beat Minnesota 94-73 at home Jan 19, its 4th win in last five series games; Hawkeyes lost four of last five visits here, with the win by 4 in '12. Iowa won/covered its last three road games, by 26-7-12 points; they are 3-0 as road favorites. Minnesota lost six of its last eight games; they're 2-0 as home dogs- underdogs are 6-1 versus spread in its home games in league. Big Dozen home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-9.
•Kansas State (-9) beat Texas Tech 66-58 at home Jan 28, holding Tech to 34% from floor; Wildcats won last eight games with Tech, winning its last three visits to Lubbock by 19-22-9 points. Big X home underdogs of 5 or less points are 8-4 versus spread. Tech is 9-3 versus spread in its last dozen games, but lost last three games, by 6-1-22 points. K-State lost their last six road games- their only road win was at TCU.
•St John's won five of last six games, is 8-1 versus spread in last nine; they got beat 70-60 (+5) at Xavier in Big East opener Dec 31, shooting 26% inside arc, 7-14 outside it. Red Storm won/covered its last four games at home, winning three by 15+. Big East home favorites of 7 or less points are 17-11 versus spread. Xavier is 3-5 in its last eight games after starting 5-1 in its first Big East season- they're 1-4 as a road underdog.
•St Joe's (+5) won 60-57 at Dayton Jan 29, holding on after leading by 15 with 10:07 left. Flyers lost last four visits here by 14-6-1-14 points, but they're 5-3 in last eight series games overall. A-13 home favorites of 5 or less points are 12-13 versus spread. St Joe's won six of its last seven games, is 2-2 as home favorite, with only one home win by more than 9 points. Dayton won five of last six games, is 1-1 as a road underdog.
•Clemson (-7.5) beat Wake Forest 61-53 Jan 18, outscoring Deacons 18-7 on foul line in 5th straight series win. Tigers are 4-4 on ACC road, 2-0 as road favorites, winning road games by 2-7-4-8 points. Wake lost seven games in row, losing by 33 in Chapel Hill Saturday; Deacons lost three in row at home, by 10-9-7 points, after winning first three. ACC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 4-11 versus spread.
•Wright State (+4.5) won 62-45 at Valparaiso Jan 10, in brickfest where both teams shot 33% inside arc, just Raiders' second win in last eight series games; Wright won three of last four games overall, with last three games decided by total of 9 points- they're 3-3 as a home favorite. Valparaiso won eight of last 11 games, is 3-3 as road dogs. Horizon League home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-17 against the spread.
•Florida is 14-0 in SEC, 2-3 as road favorite, with no road wins by more than 11 points; their last two wins were by total of 9 points. Gators are 5-1 in last six games with Vanderbilt, losing four of last six visits here. Vandy won three of last four home games, with last four decided by 6 or less points- they're 2-3 as home underdogs. SEC home underdogs of 4+ points are 8-4 versus spread. Florida covered twice in its last seven games as the favorite.
•Drake (-7) scored 55 points in second half, beat Evansville 94-66 (-7) in MVC opener Jan 1; Bulldogs won five of last six series games, but lost seven of eight Missouri Valley road games, with only win at SIU. Aces lost seven of last games, losing three of last four at home- they're 1-1-1 as a home favorite. MVC home teams are 9-8 versus spread in games where number was 3 or less points. Drake covered twice in six games as a road dog.
•Milwaukee (-1.5) won 67-63 at UIC Jan 16, after trailing by 3 at half; Panthers lost last three games, are 2-3 as home favorites, winning home games by 6-4-22 points. Flames lost last 17 games, are 0-14 in Horizon League, 5-2 as road dogs-- visitors are 11-3 versus spread in their Horizon games. UIC lost last five visits here, three by 5 or less points. Horizon home favorites of more than 5 points are 15-12 versus spread.
•Seton Hall won seven of last eight games with DePaul, beating Demons 86-69 (-8) at home Jan 25; it was 45-25 at half. Pirates lost four of last five games, three of last four at home- they lost at Creighton by a point Sunday. DePaul lost last ten games, is 2-5 as a home dog, with five of last six losses by 12+ points- they lost last game in OT to Marquette. Big East home underdogs are 10-13 against the spread.
•Indiana (+4) upset Wisconsin 75-72 at home Jan 14, its first win in last 13 games versus Badgers, but Hoosiers are 3-6 since that game, 1-3-1 as dog on road, losing away games by 3-5-5-6-18 points, winning at Penn St., Northwestern. Indiana lost its last eight visits to Madison, last six by 7+ points. Badgers won its last five games, but failed to cover last five home games. Big Dozen double digit home favorites are 12-8 versus spread.
•Georgia (+11) won 70-64 in OT in SEC opener at Missouri Jan 8; Bulldogs were down 5 in OT, won despite going 13-26 on line. Missouri lost six of last seven road games; they're 2-4 in games with spread of 3 or less. Georgia is 6-1 at home in SEC, winning last three by 13-1-12- they are 5-1 versus spread in SEC games with spread of 3 or less points. SEC home teams are 19-10-1 versus spread in games where number was 3 or less.
•New Mexico (+2) won 78-65 at Utah State Jan 28; Lobos won/covered last three games, cruising past Rebels/Aztecs in two sharp efforts last week- they've covered four of last five home games, eight of last 10 tilts overall. Mountain West double digit home favorites are 8-11 versus spread. Utah State lost last three games, covered three of last ten; they're 2-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 1-8-4-20-17-15 points.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- NEW MEXICO is 17-2 ATS (+14.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW MEXICO 71.8, OPPONENT 57.8.
-- VIRGINIA TECH is 15-2 UNDER (+12.8 Units) after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was VIRGINIA TECH 61.1, OPPONENT 65.4.
-- IL-CHICAGO is 14-1 (+12.9 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after 2 straight games where they were called for 22 or more fouls since 1997.
The average score was IL-CHICAGO 33.1, OPPONENT 30.1.
-- ST JOSEPHS is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST JOSEPHS 31.8, OPPONENT 27.2.
-- JERRY SLOCUM is 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers as the coach of YOUNGSTOWN ST.
The average score was SLOCUM 73.8, OPPONENT 71.8.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- CLEVELAND ST is 15-0 ATS (+15.0 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND ST 77.4, OPPONENT 66.2.
-- AIR FORCE is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was AIR FORCE 59.4, OPPONENT 66.7.
-- SAN JOSE ST is 2-14 (-13.4 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN JOSE ST 23.4, OPPONENT 35.1.
-- SAN DIEGO ST is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 30.7, OPPONENT 24.3.
-- JEFF BZDELIK is 4-21 ATS (-19.1 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games as the coach of WAKE FOREST.
The average score was BZDELIK 61.0, OPPONENT 78.1.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (MISSOURI ST) - revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a road favorite against opponent off a loss against a conference rival, in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG).
(322-59 since 1997.) (84.5%, +143.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -303.2
The average score in these games was: Team 72.4, Opponent 63.6 (Average point differential = +8.9)
The situation's record this season is: (16-2, +12 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (82-13, +45.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (131-25, +57.5 units).
-- Play On - Road teams as an underdog or pick (YOUNGSTOWN ST) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an excellent shooting team (>=47.5%), after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent hot team - covering 12 or more of their last 15 against the spread.
(28-5 since 1997.) (84.8%, +22.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (10-23)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 10.3
The average score in these games was: Team 67.7, Opponent 72.5 (Average point differential = -4.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-1).
-- Play Against - Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DEPAUL) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points, off a home loss by 3 points or less.
(27-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.4%, +21.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (29-4 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.3
The average score in these games was: Team 72.7, Opponent 62.5 (Average point differential = +10.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (39.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (65-35).
-- Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (ST JOSEPHS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 15+ games.
(42-10 since 1997.) (80.8%, +31.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 137.7
The average score in these games was: Team 67.6, Opponent 62.8 (Total points scored = 130.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 32 (64% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-4).
-- Play Against - Road favorites of 6 to 11 points versus the first half line (WICHITA ST) - an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), hot shooting team - 3 straight games making >=47% of their shots, after a win by 15 points or more.
(47-15 since 1997.) (75.8%, +30.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 28.6, Opponent 33.3 (Average first half point differential = -4.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
-- Play On - Underdog of 2 to 5.5 points versus the first half line (YOUNGSTOWN ST) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an excellent shooting team (>=47.5%), after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent hot team - covering 12 or more of their last 15 against the spread.
(47-15 since 1997.) (75.8%, +30.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.3, Opponent 32.3 (Average first half point differential = -1)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5).
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Who Has What It Takes - Part #1
By: Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor
Monday, February 24[SUP]th[/SUP] 2014
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History shows us many things about what it takes to be a champion. I write this article every year, and every year except for one, I have been able to identify the eventual NCAA national champion among my elite level teams. Last year was no exception. Here’s what I wrote about Louisville in my ‘Who Has What It Takes’ article from 2013: “The Cardinals have star power, depth, experience and talent. They rebound, play defense and win games consistently away from home. Rick Pitino’s squad meets all the criteria that has been effective at predicting past championship. Plain and simple, Louisville has what it takes to win it all.” Louisville, of course, was the last team standing in the 68 team field last year, winning the national championship over Michigan.
Past predictions do not necessarily indicate future success, but I’ll stand by my track record in this article. Remember, as always, this gets written before the regular season is over, before the conference tournaments, before the seeding’s are announced and before a single tournament game has been played. I’ve nailed the winner of the NCAA tournament four times in the last seven years, correctly predicting Florida in ’07, Kansas in ’08 and North Carolina in ’09 as well as Louisville last year. I did NOT predict Duke in 2010, and didn’t even have Connecticut in the discussion in 2011. In 2012, I picked Kansas to win the title, but they lost the championship game to Kentucky.
Here is a list of the last 16 NCAA champions and the teams they beat in the title game: Kentucky over Utah in ’98, UConn over Duke in ’99, Michigan State over Florida in 2000, Duke over Arizona in ’01, Maryland over Indiana in ’02, Syracuse over Kansas in ’03, Connecticut over Georgia Tech in ’04, North Carolina over Illinois in ’05, Florida over UCLA in ’06, Florida over Ohio State in ’07, Kansas over Memphis in ’08, North Carolina over Michigan State in ’09, Duke over Butler in 2010, UConn over Butler in 2011 and Kentucky over Kansas in 2012 and Louisville over Michigan last year.
Fifteen of those sixteen champions had very specific abilities, a very specific track record and a very specific statistical profile as a team that allowed them to go all the way. In Part #1 of this article, I’ll take a look at that statistical profile and make a ‘short list’ of potential NCAA champs. In Part #2 next week, I’ll go through that ‘short list’ team by team, eliminating them one by one until we reach the last team standing.
Cinderella’s have reached the championship game. Florida in 2000, Indiana in 2002 and the Butler teams from 2010 and 2011 stand out as the teams that were not among the top 16 seeds in the tournament but were still good enough to get a shot at the title. But those Cinderella’s have been unable to seal the deal – the eventual champion has been seeded no lower than #3 in every single year dating back to 1997, when Arizona won it all as a #4 seed. You’ll have to go all the way back to 1988 for a real longshot, when Larry Brown guided the Kansas Jayhawks to a title as a #6 seed. Twenty of the last 23 national champions have been #1 or #2 seeds. Even the one I missed -- UConn in 2011 -- was a #3 seed, a factor that I couldn’t and didn’t predict at the end of February when the Huskies were in the midst of a 4-7 slump to close out the regular season.
To earn that type of a seed, the eventual champion must have been an elite level team all year. Prior to Connecticut’s title win in 2011, none of the previous thirteen champions had more than seven losses. To win the Big Dance, teams have to be better than good, or even very good. Winning six straight games over three weekends requires greatness, and great teams don’t lose more than seven games throughout the course of the campaign.
Each of the past 16 champions was from one of the six ‘major’ conferences (now seven with the Big East/American Conference split). The mid-majors tend to measure success with Sweet 16 berths, not Final Four trips. We have seen several exceptions to that rule, like Butler’s string of upsets to reach the title game as a Horizon League squad or Wichita State and VCU’s remarkable runs to the Final Four. George Mason enjoyed an amazing run to the Final Four eight years ago from the Colonial Athletic Conference; a big enough shocker that we still talk about it. Memphis made the championship game from Conference USA in 2008 and Utah made it from the WAC in 1998 (at the time), but those are clearly the exceptions, not the rule.
Basically, if a team is not from the Big East, American, ACC, Big 10, Big 12, SEC or PAC-12, they aren’t facing enough tough competition on a nightly basis to get them ready for an extended tournament run. Sorry Wichita State – you’re not winning the title this year, despite your lofty ranking. It’s a similar story for the likes of St Louis, San Diego State, Gonzaga, VCU, New Mexico, Harvard, Green Bay or Stephen F Austin. Those elite mid-majors are not going to make my ‘potential champions’ list, even though several of them have managed to crack the Top 25 and have legitimate Sweet 16 potential.
Using just the seven losses and major conference criteria alone, we can narrow the list of potential NCAA tournament winners down to the following group of 25 teams: Cincinnati, Louisville, SMU, Memphis, Connecticut, Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas, Creighton, Villanova, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State, Arizona, UCLA, Florida and Kentucky.
This glaring fact stands out – no team has won a national title without earning a #3 seed or better since 1997. So let’s whittle down that list of 25 right here, starting with seven teams that have virtually no shot to get seeded that high: Memphis, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Texas, UConn and SMU. All seven of those squads fall into the ‘good, not great’ category. And most importantly for our purposes, those four squads are all projected to be #6 seeds or higher right now. I’ll bounce them from consideration here. That leaves me with 18 teams to discuss in Part #2 of this article. I’ll wager dollars to donuts that the eventual NCAA champion will come from this list of 18: Cincinnati, Louisville, Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, Iowa State, Creighton, Villanova, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona, UCLA, Florida and Kentucky.
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Tuesday's Match-ups
#515 IOWA @ #516 MINNESOTA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST. Big Ten Network - Line: Iowa -3.5, Total: 145.5) - No. 19 Iowa looks to bounce back from a loss to No. 14 Wisconsin when it hits the road to face Minnesota on Tuesday. The Hawkeyes dropped a 79-74 decision at home to the Badgers and now sit 2.5 games behind No. 16 Michigan in the race for the Big Ten title with five conference tilts remaining. "I don't look at that any differently," coach Fran McCaffery told reporters. "We've got a brutal week, two road games and a home game against three really good teams."
Minnesota's hopes of making the NCAA Tournament took a big hit following two straight losses last week. The Golden Gophers inexplicably fell 62-49 at home to Illinois before putting up another dud in the 64-46 loss to No. 20 Ohio State with two consecutive games against nationally ranked teams ahead. "We highjack ourselves, we don't allow ourselves to win," coach Richard Pitino told reporters. "We just have to stay positive, stay focused and get excited about another opportunity on Tuesday."
•ABOUT IOWA (19-7 SU, 15-9-0 ATS, 8-5 Big Ten): Roy Devyn Marble tops the team in scoring (16.6) and recorded his first career double-double by notching 21 points and 11 assists versus Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes are ranked third nationally in rebounding (42.6) and have won the battle of the boards in 21 of their 26 games. Iowa is seventh in the country in points per game (83.3), but has been held below its scoring average in seven of its last eight outings.
•ABOUT MINNESOTA (17-11 SU, 10-13-1 ATS, 6-9 Big Ten): Andre Hollins leads the Golden Gophers in scoring (14.8) and free-throw percentage (83.1) and has finished perfect from the line on 10 occasions this season. Hollins scored a team-high 13 points, including three 3-pointers in the loss to Ohio State. Minnesota is 13-3 at home, but has lost two of its last three games at Williams Arena to unranked Northwestern and Illinois, respectively.
•PREGAME NOTES: Iowa is 13-0 when holding its opponents to 70 or fewer points.... Minnesota is 7-0 when scoring 80 points or more.... The Hawkeyes have won 10 games by 20 points or more.... The Hawkeyes are 18-5 versus the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last two seasons.... The Golden Gophers are 6-13 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA covered the spread 566 times, while MINNESOTA covered the spread 434 times. *EDGE against the spread =IOWA. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA won the game straight up 645 times, while MINNESOTA won 327 times. In 1000 simulated games, 604 games went over the total, while 396 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA covered the first half line 491 times, while MINNESOTA covered the first half line 466 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 612 games went over first half total, while 388 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MINNESOTA is 17-13 against the spread versus IOWA since 1997.
--IOWA is 17-14 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1997.
--11 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--IOWA is 16-15 versus the first half line when playing against MINNESOTA since 1997.
--10 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Hawkeyes are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota.
•RECENT TRENDS
--IOWA is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
--IOWA is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 vs. Big Ten.
--Under is 6-2 in IOWA last 8 Tue. games.
--Under is 5-1 in MINN last 6 overall.
--Under is 4-1 in MINN last 5 home games.
--Under is 5-1 in MINN last 6 vs. Big Ten.
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#519 VIRGINIA TECH @ #520 DUKE
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Duke -20.5, Total: 138.5) - The caliber of opponent drops significantly for Duke as it goes after its 32nd consecutive home victory when last-place Virginia Tech visits Tuesday. The No. 7 Blue Devils defeated then-No. 1 Syracuse in Saturday’s epic battle and should experience a relative breather against the Hokies, who have lost 12 of 13 games. Duke stands third in the ACC behind Virginia and Syracuse as it makes a run at a high seed in next month’s NCAA Tournament.
Virginia Tech’s odds of producing an upset would be slim under any circumstance, but the task becomes more arduous when you consider the Blue Devils own the longest home win streak in the nation. Duke had lost to North Carolina two nights before the showdown with Syracuse and the way the squad rebounded impressed freshman standout Jabari Parker. “It’s always a good thing to bounce back after a loss,” Parker said after the Syracuse game. “We fought. We did a really good job as a team and had collectively a team effort on defense.”
•ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (9-17 SU, 9-12-0 ATS, 2-12 ACC): The Hokies have played four straight games decided by seven or fewer points – including a win over Miami – after experiencing a stretch of four 20-point losses. Inconsistent leading scorer Jarell Eddie (13.4) scored 14 points in last Saturday’s loss to North Carolina and the output represented just the fifth time in 13 games that he reached double digits. Freshman point guard Devin Wilson (9.4 points, 4.7 assists) had 14 points and nine assists in the loss to the Wolfpack for his fourth consecutive double-digit scoring game.
•ABOUT DUKE (22-6 SU, 17-10-1 ATS, 11-4 ACC): Parker (19.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, 37 blocked shots) is having one of the top freshman seasons in school history and he has 11 double-doubles and 26 double-digit scoring outings. Forward Rodney Hood averages 16.1 points and has made at least one 3-pointer in 25 consecutive games, while guard Quinn Cook averages 12 points. Guard Andre Dawkins (8.7) has made 58 3-pointers – sharing the team lead with Hood -- and is 13 points away from becoming the 63rd player in Blue Devils history to reach 1,000 career points.
•PREGAME NOTES: Duke has won the last six meetings and 13 of the past 16.... Hokies G Ben Emelogu (ankle) sat out the loss against North Carolina State but hopes to return against the Blue Devils.... Duke is shooting just 52.6 percent from the free-throw line over the past three games.... Virginia Tech is 6-16 versus the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%), including 3-12 ATS after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.... The Blue Devils are 8-0 against the spread in home games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 12 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA TECH covered the spread 506 times, while DUKE covered the spread 494 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, DUKE won the game straight up 939 times, while VIRGINIA TECH won 52 times. In 1000 simulated games, 624 games went over the total, while 376 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA TECH covered the first half line 573 times, while DUKE covered the first half line 427 times. *EDGE against first half line =VIRGINIA TECH. In 1000 simulated games, 622 games went over first half total, while 336 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DUKE is 9-7 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH since 1997.
--DUKE is 13-3 straight up against VIRGINIA TECH since 1997.
--10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--VIRGINIA TECH is 9-6 versus the first half line when playing against DUKE since 1997.
--10 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Hokies are 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Duke.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--VT is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
--Under is 17-4 in VT last 21 overall.
--Under is 14-3 in VT last 17 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--DUKE is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
--DUKE is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--Under is 5-1 in DUKE last 6 Tuesday games.
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#531 FLORIDA @ #532 VANDERBILT
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Florida -8, Total: 124) - A school-record 19-game winning streak has propelled Florida to its first No. 1 ranking in seven years, but the Gators have loftier goals entering Tuesday's game at Vanderbilt. “We’re the same team, no matter what number we are, so it really doesn’t matter," point guard Scottie Wilbekin said of the likelihood of vaulting to No. 1 following Saturday's win at Mississippi. Florida can clinch at least a share of the SEC regular-season title and remain perfect in league play with a win Tuesday.
Top-ranked Syracuse lost to Boston College last week, clearing the way for the Gators to ascend to the top of the polls for the first time since February 2007 - the year they won their second straight national title. Florida has won five of the past six meetings against the Commodores, but is only 7-9 at Vanderbilt under coach Billy Donovan and lost its most recent visit in 2012. Vanderbilt moved to .500 in conference play by rallying from a 16-point deficit to win at Auburn on Saturday.
•ABOUT FLORIDA (25-2 SU, 11-11-1 ATS, 14-0 SEC): Playing away from home for the fourth time in fifth games, the Gators can extend their school-record SEC road winning streak to eight games and also set a program mark with their 15th victory in conference play. Wilbekin, who connected on a season-high four 3-pointers and scored 18 points to go along with seven assists as Florida held off Mississippi down the stretch, is averaging 18.7 points in his last six games. Third-leading scorer Michael Frazier II broke out of a mini-slump by knocking down a season high-tying five 3-pointers en route to a 17-point outing.
•ABOUT VANDERBILT (15-11 SU, 13-10-2 ATS, 7-7 SEC): The Commodores are down to seven scholarship players and leading scorer Rod Odom was hobbled by a thigh injury at Auburn, but point guard Dai-Jon Parker filled the offensive void, breaking out of a shooting slump to score a career-high 21 points while burying 5-of-9 from behind the arc. Vanderbilt also got a huge lift from walk-ons Nathan Watkins (seven points) and Carter Josephs (nine assists, zero turnovers). "I didn't see it coming," Watkins said. "It was a new experience, the first time I've ever played real minutes in a regular-season game."
•PREGAME NOTES: The Gators are 12-2 in games decided by single digits, a dramatic turnaround from last season's 0-6 mark in such scenarios.... Vanderbilt improved to 8-0 when registering more 3-pointers than the opposition.... Florida allows an SEC-low 58.7 points per game - eighth-best in the nation.... The Commodores are 6-0 against the spread versus excellent teams - shooting more than 45% with a defense of less than 42% this season.... The Gators are 3-13 versus the spread as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA covered the spread 529 times, while VANDERBILT covered the spread 432 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA won the game straight up 769 times, while VANDERBILT won 203 times. In 1000 simulated games, 701 games went over the total, while 278 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA covered the first half line 511 times, while VANDERBILT covered the first half line 489 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 691 games went over first half total, while 309 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--FLORIDA is 18-15 against the spread versus VANDERBILT since 1997.
--FLORIDA is 23-10 straight up against VANDERBILT since 1997.
--12 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--VANDERBILT is 17-16 versus the first half line when playing against FLORIDA since 1997.
--11 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Gators are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Vanderbilt.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 8-1 in FLA last 9 Tue. games.
--Under is 25-10-1 in FLA last 36 overall.
--Under is 16-6-1 in FLA last 23 vs. Southeastern.
--Over is 6-2 in VAN last 8 Tue. games.
--Under is 42-16-2 in VAN last 60 overall.
--Under is 20-8-2 in VAN last 30 home games.
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#533 WICHITA ST @ #534 BRADLEY
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Wichita State -12, Total: 130.5) - A common refrain among Wichita State naysayers is that it "hasn't played anyone,'' but the Shockers haven't lost to anyone either. Wichita State will try to become the first team to start 30-0 since UNLV began the 2000-01 season with 34 victories when it visits Bradley on Tuesday. The Shockers continue to prove last year's NCAA Tournament Final Four appearance was no fluke after winning 13 of their 16 Missouri Valley Conference games by double digits, and all but one by at least seven points.
Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall acknowledged his team is "all business'' as the Shockers continue to handle the pressure of being the nation's only undefeated club with ease. "We're going to get every team's best shot," Shockers senior guard Nick Wiggins - brother of Kansas freshman phenom Andrew Wiggins - told the Wichita Eagle prior to Saturday's 83-54 victory over Drake. "Someone wants to knock us off." Bradley, which lost the first meeting 72-50 and has dropped eight straight to Wichita State, improved to 6-2 at home in the MVC when it snapped a three-game losing streak with a 55-38 victory over last-place Loyola (Ill.) on Saturday.
•ABOUT WICHITA STATE (29-0 SU, 19-6-1 ATS, 16-0 Missouri Valley Conference): Junior guard Tekele Cotton (10.4 points per game) recorded career highs of 21 points and seven steals Saturday, prompting Marshall to ask reporters: "Was there two Tekele Cottons out there?" Senior forward Cleanthony Early should have extra energy after getting into foul trouble against Drake and scoring a season-low three points in 17 minutes. The Shockers have won by an average of 15 points this season.
•ABOUT BRADLEY (12-17 SU, 9-16-1 ATS, 7-9 Missouri Valley Conference): The Braves are led by senior guard Walt Lemon Jr., the only MVC player in the top five in scoring (third at 17.7 points per game), assists (fifth, 3.9) and steals (second, 2.3), and the conference's active career scoring leader. Bradley averages 63.8 points - 317th-best among the 345 Division I teams - and faces the nation's No. 16 team in scoring defense (60.8). The Braves boast the No. 2 defense in the MVC at 65.5 points allowed per game.
•PREGAME NOTES: Shockers sophomore G Ron Baker (13 points per game) is 42-2 as a starter, the losses coming against Tennessee and Louisville in the Final Four.... Wichita State, which leads the MVC in free throw percentage at 74.1, has nine players averaging at least 12 minutes.... Bradley, which is 9-3 this season when scoring 65 or more points, was the last school to compile a perfect record in the MVC, going 16-0 in 1985-86.... The Shockers are 16-6 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.... The Braves are 11-3 versus the spread in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WICHITA ST covered the spread 517 times, while BRADLEY covered the spread 443 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WICHITA ST won the game straight up 846 times, while BRADLEY won 140 times. In 1000 simulated games, 548 games went over the total, while 452 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, BRADLEY covered the first half line 497 times, while WICHITA ST covered the first half line 459 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 557 games went over first half total, while 404 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WICHITA ST is 21-15 against the spread versus BRADLEY since 1997.
--WICHITA ST is 22-14 straight up against BRADLEY since 1997.
--10 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WICHITA ST is 22-14 versus the first half line when playing against BRADLEY since 1997.
--10 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Shockers are 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Bradley.
--Favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WICH is 38-16 ATS in their last 54 road games.
--Under is 9-3 in WICH last 12 Tue. games.
--Over is 37-17 in WICH last 54 road games.
--Under is 9-2 in BRAD last 11 home games.
--Under is 41-20 in BRAD last 61 overall.
--Under is 12-4 in BRAD last 16 vs. Missouri Valley.
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#543 INDIANA @ #544 WISCONSIN
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Wisconsin -10.5, Total: 135.5) - Wisconsin has turned its season around with five straight victories and looks to avenge one of it defeats when Indiana visits on Tuesday night. The No. 14 Badgers were unbeaten before losing at Indiana on Jan. 14 and dropped four more in the next five only to rebound by recording three victories versus ranked teams during their current win streak. The Hoosiers snapped a three-game slide with a 61-56 victory at Northwestern on Saturday and face three ranked teams in a span of six days.
The Badgers have averaged 77.3 points over the last three contests, including victories at No. 16 Michigan and No. 19 Iowa. “They are playing both ends of the court with great confidence and we have our work cut out for us,” Indiana coach Tom Crean said on the Big Ten weekly teleconference. Wisconsin must contain Indiana’s sophomore guard Yogi Ferrell, who recorded 25 points against the Badgers last month and is third in the league in scoring.
•ABOUT INDIANA (15-11 SU, 12-12-1 ATS, 5-8 Big Ten): Ferrell has scored at least 25 points in a game six times this season and leads the league in made 3-pointers with 71 while averaging 17.7 points. The Hoosiers are outrebounding teams by 9.3 per game, tops in the Big Ten, and Noah Vonleh averages 9.4 boards to lead the league. Indiana has struggled handling the ball much of the season, ranking last in the conference in turnover margin (minus-2.42), but coughed up the ball a season-low seven times against Northwestern.
•ABOUT WISCONSIN (22-5 SU, 15-12-0 ATS, 9-5 Big Ten): Frank Kaminsky averaged 21 points and eight rebounds in the last three games while draining 23-of-38 from the field and 16-of-18 free throws. The 7-0 junior is second in scoring (13.3) for the well-balanced Badgers behind Sam Dekker (13.5), while Ben Brust (12.6) has made 64 from 3-point range along with leading the Big Ten in free-throw percentage (90.3). Guard Traevon Jackson contributes 10.6 points per game for Wisconsin, which is fourth in the league in scoring (73.5).
•PREGAME NOTES: Wisconsin had won 12 consecutive games against the Hoosiers before the 75-72 defeat earlier this season.... Indiana freshman F Troy Williams scored 12 points against Northwestern, his highest total in Big Ten play.... Badgers G Josh Gasser leads the Big Ten in 3-point shooting percentage (46.3), making 37 of his 80 attempts.... The Hoosiers are 11-3 against the spread versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 37% of their attempts over the last two seasons.... Wisconsin is 0-6 versus the spread in home games after playing two consecutive road games over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN covered the spread 539 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 461 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN won the game straight up 801 times, while INDIANA won 175 times. In 1000 simulated games, 671 games went over the total, while 329 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA covered the first half line 483 times, while WISCONSIN covered the first half line 466 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 654 games went over first half total, while 346 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WISCONSIN is 17-12 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1997.
--WISCONSIN is 20-9 straight up against INDIANA since 1997.
--13 of 24 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WISCONSIN is 18-11 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANA since 1997.
--13 of 25 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Hoosiers are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Wisconsin.
--Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 8-1 in IND last 9 overall.
--Under is 6-2 in IND last 8 Tue. games.
--Under is 8-1 in IND last 9 vs. Big Ten.
--WIS is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--WIS is 1-4 ATS L5 games following a ATS win.
--WIS is 1-6 ATS L7 home vs. a team with a losing road record.
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#551 SAN JOSE ST @ #552 SAN DIEGO ST
(TV: 11:00 PM EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: San Diego State -20.5, Total: 123) - Two weeks ago, when No. 13 San Diego State was in the midst of a school record-tying 20-game win streak that included an impressive road win at Kansas, there was speculation the Aztecs could play themselves into a possible No. 1 seed for the NCAA Tournament. But after losing twice in a 11-game span, including an ugly 58-44 setback at New Mexico last Saturday, San Diego State finds itself trying to avoid the No. 2 seed for next month's Mountain West Tournament in Las Vegas. The Aztecs, now in a tie for first place in the Mountain West with the Lobos -- who they close out league play against on March 8 at home -- will try and bounce back on Tuesday night when they host San Jose State.
Hard to believe but it's the Spartans who are the only team coming in off a win for this one. San Jose State snapped a 13-game losing streak with a 66-64 upset at Nevada on Feb. 19, the school's first ever Mountain West victory, and have had the luxury of six days to enjoy it. The bad news is the Spartans now face an angry San Diego State team that hammered them, 75-50, in their first meeting in San Jose on Jan. 22.
•ABOUT SAN JOSE STATE (7-19 SU, 10-13-1 ATS, 1-13 Mountain West): Freshman guard Jalen James put in an offensive rebound with 1.8 seconds left to win the game at Reno but it has been another freshman guard, Rashad Muhammad, who has been the best player for the Spartans this year. The younger brother of Minnesota Timberwolves first-round pick Shabazz Muhammad leads the team in scoring (13.6) and has made 65 3-pointers this season, tying the Mountain West freshman record in that category held by both Utah's Marshall Henderson (2009-10), who now starts at Mississippi, and UNLV's Katin Reinhardt (2012-13), who has since transferred to USC. Junior forward Jaleel Williams (10.5) is the only other Spartans player averaging in double figures.
•ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (23-3 SU, 13-10-0 ATS, 12-2 Mountain West): The Aztecs set season lows for points (44), field goal percentage (32.3), free throws (0) and free throw attempts (3) in Saturday's loss at The Pit to New Mexico and are shooting 38.5 percent as a team in their last four games. "You're not going to win when you shoot like that," head coach Steve Fisher told U-T San Diego. Senior guard Xavier Thames (16.8) and sophomore forward Winston Shepard (12.4) are the only Aztecs averaging in double figures and also are two of the conference's best defenders.
•PREGAME NOTES: Thames has scored in double figures in 20 of the last 23 games but is just 10-for-50 from the floor over the last four contests.... The Aztecs have won 39 consecutive games against schools from the state of California.... San Diego State is 113-0 in their last 113 games when leading with five minutes to play.... San Jose State is 2-14 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.... The Aztecs are 19-4 against the spread in home games after two straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAN JOSE ST covered the spread 588 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the spread 412 times. *EDGE against the spread =SAN JOSE ST. In 1000 simulated games, SAN DIEGO ST won the game straight up 908 times, while SAN JOSE ST won 74 times. In 1000 simulated games, 522 games went over the total, while 445 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAN JOSE ST covered the first half line 636 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the first half line 364 times. *EDGE against first half line=SAN JOSE ST. In 1000 simulated games, 565 games went over first half total, while 396 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN JOSE ST is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST since 1997.
--SAN DIEGO ST is 3-2 straight up against SAN JOSE ST since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SAN DIEGO ST is 3-2 versus the first half line when playing against SAN JOSE ST since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SJSU is 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 Tue. games.
--SJSU is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Under is 10-1 in SJSU last 11 vs. Mountain West.
--Under is 23-6 in SDSU last 29 overall.
--Over is 5-2-1 in SDSU last 8 Tue. games.
--Under is 19-7 in SDSU last 26 home games.
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