STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/18/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 2/18/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Tuesday's Notebook
•Richmond won/covered all three games since leading scorer Lindsey was lost for season; Spiders won five of last seven games with George Washington, winning three of last four played here, by 4-10-9 points- they're 5-0 SU at home in league. GW lost last two games by 17-6 points; they're 2-3 on A-13 road, winning at St Bonaventure/George Mason. A-13 teams are 10-13 against spread in games where spread was 3 or less points.
•NC State played its heart out but lost by point at Syracuse; Wolfpack is 4-2 as ACC road dog- three of their last five road games were decided by one point. State won three of last four games with Clemson, losing four of last five visits to Littlejohn, with three losses by 10+ points. Clemson is 2-5 in last seven games, losing last two by 4-5; they're 1-2 as a home favorite. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-15 versus spread.
•Texas won nine of last ten games, three of last four on road; Longhorns (+2) beat Iowa State 86-76 at home Jan 18, its 10th win in last 12 series games, but they lost last two visits here, by 6-20 points. Cyclones won four of last five games but are 1-5 as home favorites, failing to cover last five at home, with only one of last four home wins by more than six points. Big X home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-5 versus spread.
•Villanova (-12) made 14-26 from arc in 91-61 thrashing of Providence Jan 5; Wildcats are 9-3 in last 12 series games, but lost last two visits to Providence, by 25-3 points. Wildcats are 4-2-1 as road favorites, with road wins by four of six road wins by 7+ points. Providence won five of last six home games, is 3-3 as Big East underdog, 1-0 at home. Big East home underdogs are 8-12 against spread.
•Kentucky won four in row, 12 of last 14 games with Ole Miss, beating Rebels 80-64 (-11.5) at Rupp Feb 4, outscoring them 26-8 on foul line in game that was 35-34 at half. Wildcats won last three road games, are 2-2 as road favorites, losing at Arkansas/LSU in six road games. SEC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-6-1 versus spread. Ole Miss lost four of last six games, but all four were on road- they're 5-0 at home in SEC.
•Kansas won its last eight games with Texas Tech, winning last three in Lubbock by 22-35-14 points, but Tubby Smith has injected life into the Tech program. Red Raiders won three of last four games, covered eight of last ten- they've won three of last four at home, are 2-2 as home dogs. Kansas is 3-2 as road favorite but lost two of last three on foreign soil. Big X home underdogs are 11-8-1 versus spread.
•Indiana lost six of last eight games, with five losses by 7 or less points; Hoosiers split six home games, but won three of last four games with Iowa, winning by 14-13 in last two games played here. Hawkeyes won three of last four games, winning last three on road- they covered five of six road games. Big Dozen home teams are 10-8 versus spread in games where spread was 3 or less points; home underdogs are 8-12.
•Duke, which plays UNC/Syracuse later this week, beat Georgia Tech at home 79-57 (-15) Jan 7, outscoring Tech 22-0 from foul line, hitting 9 of 20 from arc. Blue Devils won six in row, 15 of last 17 games with Tech- they split last four visits here, winning by 14-7. Tech lost four of last five home games, is 1-2-1 as home dog- five of its eight ACC losses are by 13+. ACC home underdogs of 6+ points are 0-6 against spread.
•Northern Iowa (-8.5) beat Drake 76-66 Jan 11, outscoring Drake 23-8 in last 6:05; Panthers won five in row, nine of last ten series games, taking four of last five visits here, all by 7+ points. MVC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 3-5-1 versus spread. Bulldogs won last three home games, are 3-5 as MVC dogs. UNI won/covered last two games after covering once in previous eight games- they're 2-5 on MVC road.
•St John's won last five games, covered six of last seven, including three in row at home; Red Storm (+3.5) won 69-52 at Butler Jan 25, as Bulldogs made only 1-8 on arc. Butler lost its last four games, three by 8 or less points; they're 1-5 as road underdogs, with last three road losses by 9 or less points. Big East home favorites of 8+ points are 8-6 versus spread. St John's is 2-4 as a conference favorite this season.
•Georgia won its last four games, three by 12+ points; favorites are 4-0 versus spread in its last four road games. Bulldogs won four of last five games versus Tennessee, with three wins by 6 or less points- they won two of last three visits here. Volunteers lost three of last four games, but covered three in row as home favorite, with last three home wins by 7-16-19 points. SEC home favorites of 8+ points are 14-9 versus spread.
•Home side won last six Boise-Colorado State games; Broncos lost three in row at Roby Arena, by 17-11-20 points. MWC home teams are 12-9 in games where spread was less than 4 points. Colorado State lost five of last seven games, losing last two by 9 points each- they're 3-3 at home in league. Boise lost three of last four games but beat New Mexico by point last game- they lost four of five MW road games, winning at Nevada.
•San Diego State (-3) won 74-69 in OT at Utah State Jan 25, outscoring Aggies 20-2 on foul line; Aztecs were +11 in turnovers (6-17), trailed in last 5:00 by 4. MWC home favorites of 10+ points are 10-15 versus spread. Aggies won three of last four games, is 2-2 as road dog, losing games on road by 1-8-4-20-17 points, with lone win at Colorado State. Only one of Aztecs' last five wins was by more than nine points.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- VIRGINIA TECH is 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) in home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was VIRGINIA TECH 69.4, OPPONENT 69.2.
-- VIRGINIA TECH is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was VIRGINIA TECH 61.4, OPPONENT 65.5.
-- SAN JOSE ST is 2-12 (-11.2 Units) against the 1rst half line after 2 straight games where they made 37% of their shots or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN JOSE ST 24.6, OPPONENT 34.8.
-- NC STATE is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after a game where they made 53% of their free throws or worse since 1997.
The average score was NC STATE 31.2, OPPONENT 31.2.
-- RICK PITINO is 13-33 against the 1rst half line (-23.3 Units) after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half as the coach of LOUISVILLE.
The average score was PITINO 33.5, OPPONENT 31.7.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- IOWA ST is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was IOWA ST 77.5, OPPONENT 80.0.
-- SAN DIEGO ST is 15-4 UNDER (+10.6 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 69.6, OPPONENT 59.2.
-- TEXAS is 10-1 against the 1rst half line (+8.9 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season.
The average score was TEXAS 40.5, OPPONENT 34.5.
-- GEORGIA TECH is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GEORGIA TECH 31.1, OPPONENT 35.8.
-- ANDY KENNEDY is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games as the coach of OLE MISS.
The average score was KENNEDY 76.4, OPPONENT 71.1.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Any team versus the money line (S ILLINOIS) - after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game).
(24-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.7%, +39.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +155
The average score in these games was: Team 68.3, Opponent 64.9 (Average point differential = +3.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3, +22.2 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (38-27, +33 units).
-- Play Against - Home teams as a favorite or pick (LOUISVILLE) - a very good team (>=+8 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG differential), after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games.
(64-24 since 1997.) (72.7%, +37.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (6-82)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 18.8
The average score in these games was: Team 64, Opponent 79.6 (Average point differential = -15.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 29 (33.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (7-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-6).
-- Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ILLINOIS ST) - a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's), after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.
(66-26 since 1997.) (71.7%, +37.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (79-16)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.8
The average score in these games was: Team 77.4, Opponent 67.4 (Average point differential = +10)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 38 (40.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-10).
-- Play Over - Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (VIRGINIA TECH) - cold team - having lost 12 or more of their last 15 games, after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record.
(53-20 since 1997.) (72.6%, +31.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 123.2
The average score in these games was: Team 62.8, Opponent 66.5 (Total points scored = 129.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 36 (49.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-10).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-13).
-- Play Against - Home favorites versus the 1rst half line (NEVADA) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing <=12 turnovers/game, after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season.
(72-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.0%, +41.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.5, Opponent 31.9 (Average first half point differential = -0.3)
The situation's record this season is: (9-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (37-10).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (153-103).
-- Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 (DRAKE) - a good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts on the season, in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams (69-73%), after 2 straight games making 50% of their shots or better.
(47-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.3%, +32.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 67.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.3, Opponent 30.9 (Total first half points scored = 63.2)
The situation's record this season is: (9-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-8).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (105-64).
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Tuesday's Match-ups
#525 TEXAS @ #526 IOWA ST
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Iowa State -4.5, Total: 154) - Texas is the first team in the Big 12 to reach the 20-win mark this season and No. 19 Iowa State attempts to join the No. 17 Longhorns in that category when the Cyclones host Texas on Tuesday. The Longhorns defeated West Virginia on Saturday for their ninth win in 10 games and the victory gave coach Rick Barnes his 14th 20-win campaign in 16 seasons at the school. Iowa State is vying for its third straight 20-win campaign under fourth-year coach Fred Hoiberg.
The Cyclones are just 5-5 after winning their first 14 games and are a solid 12-1 at home while being tied for fourth place in the Big 12 race. Texas is one game off the lead behind Kansas in a stunning turnaround from last season’s 16-18 mark. “We are all playing for each other,” said center Cameron Ridley, who had 16 points and 11 rebounds when the Longhorns defeated Iowa State on Jan. 18. “We are playing for the Big 12 championship and everyone on the team has the same goals – just to win games, not to think selfishly.”
•ABOUT TEXAS (20-5 SU, 12-10-0 ATS, 9-3 Big 12): Guard Javan Felix is back on his game, averaging 22.5 points and going 10-of-18 form 3-point range over the last two games after scoring in single digits in each of his previous three games. Felix ranks second on the squad in scoring (12.7) and has a team-best 40 3-pointers but inconsistent 37 percent shooting from the field has prevented him from being more productive. Forward Jonathan Holmes, who averages a team-best 13 points, recently missed a game with a knee injury and said after the West Virginia contest that he’s not playing at 100 percent.
•ABOUT IOWA STATE (19-5 SU, 10-12-0 ATS, 7-5 Big 12): The quartet of forwards Melvin Ejim (18.9 points, 8.6 rebounds) and Georges Niang (16.3 points, 3.7 assists), point guard DeAndre Kane (15.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 6.1 assists) and forward Dustin Hogue (10.8 points, 8.5 rebounds) have carried the Cyclones. Ejim is vying to become the first Iowa State player to lead in the Big 12 in scoring since Marcus Fizer did it in back-to-back seasons in a career that finished in 2000 and Kane is one of the top all-around guards in the country. Niang is a torrid 19-of-39 from 3-point range over the past eight games, while Hogue has six double-doubles and ranks third in the Big 12 in rebounding.
•PREGAME NOTES: Texas has won 11 of the past 13 meetings, including the 86-76 home win earlier this season.... Longhorns PG Isaiah Taylor (12.6) is averaging 18 points over the last six games and is 37-of-40 from the free-throw line during the stretch.... The Cyclones have won 44 of their last 48 home games.... The Longhorns are 6-0 versus the spread versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.... Iowa State is 1-7 against the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games, and 1-9 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST covered the spread 619 times, while TEXAS covered the spread 381 times. *EDGE against the spread =IOWA ST. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST won the game straight up 731 times, while TEXAS won 240 times. In 1000 simulated games, 498 games went over the total, while 472 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST covered the first half line 580 times, while TEXAS covered the first half line 420 times. *EDGE against first half line =IOWA ST. In 1000 simulated games, 505 games went over first half total, while 495 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--IOWA ST is 11-10 against the spread versus TEXAS since 1997.
--TEXAS is 15-6 straight up against IOWA ST since 1997.
--12 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--IOWA ST is 12-9 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS since 1997.
--8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 13-4 in the last 17 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Iowa St.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TEX is 4-1 ATS L5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Over is 14-6 in TEX last 20 vs. Big 12.
--Under is 11-4 in TEX last 15 Tue. games.
--ISU is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12.
--ISU is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Over is 20-5-1 in ISU last 26 home games.
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#527 VILLANOVA @ #528 PROVIDENCE
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Villanova -5, Total: 142) - Villanova had its six-game winning streak halted in emphatic fashion and will attempt to bounce back from a rare defeat at Providence on Tuesday. The Wildcats were blasted by Creighton 101-80 on Sunday in a showdown for first place in the Big East Conference and dropped five spots in the rankings to No. 11. Villanova's only setbacks in the last 13 games were against Creighton - its only other loss came against top-ranked Syracuse - but it manhandled Providence on Jan. 5 with a 30-point rout.
Bryce Cotton was a one-man show in last month's matchup against Villanova, scoring 25 points in the lopsided defeat. Cotton also had 22 points Saturday to lead six players in double figures as the Friars snapped a three-game skid, but coach Ed Cooley is counting on an assist from the home crowd Tuesday. "We’re going to need a sixth man in that game,” Cooley told reporters. “We’re playing a team that can win a national championship and it’s in our building, so we have to take advantage of that."
•ABOUT VILLANOVA (22-3 SU, 17-6-0 ATS, 10-2 Big East): Wildcats coach Jay Wright is taking a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately approach to the season, fueled by the fact that his team has surrendered a staggering 197 points in two losses to Creighton. "We've got to learn from that, get better and put it behind us," Wright told reporters after Sunday's defeat. "We've got a lot of work to do to see what we are." Second-leading scorer JayVaughn Pinkston attempted only six shots Sunday, but the 260-pound forward scored 19 on 8-of-12 shooting and grabbed seven rebounds in last month's win over Providence.
•ABOUT PROVIDENCE (17-9 SU, 12-13-0 ATS, 7-6 Big East): Reserve center Carson Desrosiers leads the Big East in blocks per game (2.6), but he had not been much of a factor offensively until scoring a season-high 12 points versus DePaul. The 7-foot transfer from Wake Forest hit all four of his shots from the floor while pulling down five rebounds to go with a pair of rejections. "He is a game-changer with his length and his size, and the fact that he’s looking to be a little more aggressive offensively makes us a little more dangerous," Cooley said. "He’s a weapon.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Villanova lost a pair of three-point decisions to Providence last season but is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.... Cotton has scored at least 20 points 18 times this season.... Wildcats guard and leading scorer James Bell is averaging 20.2 points over his last nine games.... The Friars are 25-52 against the spread versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots/game on the season since 1997.... Villanova is 13-4 versus the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%), and 17-7 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams - committing less than 12 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, VILLANOVA covered the spread 540 times, while PROVIDENCE covered the spread 434 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, VILLANOVA won the game straight up 641 times, while PROVIDENCE won 333 times. In 1000 simulated games, 680 games went over the total, while 301 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, VILLANOVA covered the first half line 498 times, while PROVIDENCE covered the first half line 457 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 639 games went over first half total, while 361 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PROVIDENCE is 15-11 against the spread versus VILLANOVA since 1997.
--VILLANOVA is 14-12 straight up against PROVIDENCE since 1997.
--9 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--PROVIDENCE is 13-11 versus the first half line when playing against VILLANOVA since 1997.
--7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Providence.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--VILL is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big East.
--Over is 14-2 in VILL last 16 road games.
--Over is 10-3 in VILL last 13 vs. Big East.
--PROV is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--Over is 4-1 in PROV last 5 vs. Big East.
--Over is 5-1 in PROV last 6 Tuesday games.
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#529 KENTUCKY @ #530 MISSISSIPPI
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Kentucky -4.5, Total: 145) - After fading down the stretch against then-No. 4 Florida last time out, 16th-ranked Kentucky will look to regroup in a visit to Mississippi on Tuesday. The Wildcats held a seven-point lead Saturday before a 31-14 finish by SEC leader Florida left them beaten and bewildered, with a four-game winning streak gone by the wayside. "We're not ready to win that kind of game," Kentucky coach John Calipari told reporters, "and I told (the players) that."
Ole Miss has lost two in a row and three of its last four, including an 80-64 decision at Kentucky two weeks ago that snapped a run of five wins in six games for the Rebels. Despite its last two setbacks coming by a combined four points, Ole Miss remains in fourth place in the SEC standings, just two games behind the Wildcats for second place. Calipari was impressed by the Rebels after their last meeting and has his team prepared for the dangers of Ole Miss' top scoring threat, telling the Clarion Ledger, "(Marshall) Henderson at any time can make five straight shots. Can you keep your head about you if he does?"
•ABOUT KENTUCKY (19-6 SU, 11-10-2 ATS, 9-3 SEC): The Wildcats will get another crack at Florida in the regular-season finale on March 8 but will have to avoid a letdown in a five-game stretch before then with Georgia nipping at their heels for second place in the conference, just a game behind. Calipari consistently played up the learning experience angle after Saturday's loss, hoping his players will use it as a stepping stone down the stretch. "Florida deserved to win the game," he said. "They were just too experienced for us."
•ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (16-9 SU, 8-10-3 ATS, 7-5 SEC): Henderson, whose 19.5 points per game ranks fourth in the SEC, led the Rebels with 16 points in the loss to Kentucky earlier this month and has averaged more than 22 points in his last three games. Even so, coach Andy Kennedy elected not to start the senior at Georgia on Saturday, citing slow starts of late as his primary reason. "I was just trying to change his mojo," Kennedy told reporters. "He's shooting less than 25 percent in the first half on the road. (I'm) just trying to find the winning formula."
•PREGAME NOTES: Kentucky averages 78 points, good for second in the SEC behind Arkansas (81.2), and leads the conference in field goal percentage (46.8).... Henderson's average of 4.4 3-pointers per game leads the SEC and ranks third in the nation.... The Rebels struggle on the boards, ranking last in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage at 63 percent - an area Kentucky can exploit with F Julius Randle pulling down an average of 10 rebounds.... The Wildcats are 5-15 versus the spread in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.... Ole Miss is 19-4 against the spread versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, KENTUCKY covered the spread 530 times, while OLE MISS covered the spread 470 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, KENTUCKY won the game straight up 650 times, while OLE MISS won 319 times. In 1000 simulated games, 582 games went over the total, while 382 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, OLE MISS covered the first half line 530 times, while KENTUCKY covered the first half line 470 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 600 games went over first half total, while 369 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KENTUCKY is 12-10 against the spread versus OLE MISS since 1997.
--KENTUCKY is 18-4 straight up against OLE MISS since 1997.
--11 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OLE MISS is 12-10 versus the first half line when playing against KENTUCKY since 1997.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UK is 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 road games.
--Under is 4-0 in UK last 4 overall.
--Under is 4-0 in UK last 4 vs. Southeastern.
--MISS is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games.
--Over is 13-6 in MISS last 19 home games.
--Under is 4-1 in MISS last 5 vs. Southeastern.
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#531 S FLORIDA @ #532 LOUISVILLE
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: Louisville -22.5, Total: 138.5) - Louisville coach Rick Pitino may not like his new look, but it is hard to argue that his team has been anything less than razor-sharp of late heading into Tuesday’s home game against South Florida. The fifth-ranked Cardinals have agreed to grow beards for as long as they continue to win, which they did in a pair of blowout victories last week. “I’ve never had a beard... I didn’t know what color it would come in (but) I am very disappointed,” Pitino told reporters after Sunday’s rout of Rutgers.
The defending national champions have won four in a row overall by an average margin of 26 points and remain 1½ games back of AAC-leading Cincinnati, which will host Louisville on Saturday. The Bulls appear unlikely to put up much of a fight, however, as they have lost three straight following Saturday’s 75-74 home setback against Central Florida in which they surrendered the go-ahead basket with less than two seconds left. “It was a heartbreaker game, morale-wise; those guys are going to hurt and they should. I am, too,” coach Stan Heath told reporters following the loss.
•ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (12-14 SU, 9-14-0 ATS, 3-10 AAC): The Bulls are ranked last in Division I in 3-point percentage (25.6) and in the bottom 10 in makes (83) and attempts (324), although their 6-of-17 effort Saturday represented their best mark in league play. Martino Brock erupted for a career-high 21 points against the Knights and has scored at least 17 in three of his last four, shooting 61.5 percent from the field over that span. Brock, who is converting 51.6 percent of his field goals, is the only guard in the AAC shooting better than 50 percent from the field.
•ABOUT LOUISVILLE (21-4 SU, 13-10-0 ATS, 10-2 AAC): Freshman guard Terry Rozier leads the conference and is tied for 17th nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio (3.5), committing one turnover or less in nine consecutive games. “I can’t explain it because it is a remarkable thing. I have not seen it too many times,” Pitino told reporters in reference to Rozier’s ability to handle the ball after Saturday’s 102-54 victory over Rutgers. Rozier (16 points and four 3-pointers) and Luke Hancock (25 and six) each set career highs in points and 3-pointers Saturday, sparking Louisville’s season-best 16-of-30 effort beyond the arc.
•PREGAME NOTES: Louisville is 28-4 all-time against South Florida, including 14-1 under Pitino.... South Florida committed 23 turnovers and surrendered 35 points off those miscues in the teams’ first meeting Jan. 22, both of which were season-worst marks for the Bulls.... Cardinals G Russ Smith (1,678 career points) needs eight points to overtake Billy Thompson for 11th place and tie Wes Unseld for 10th on the school’s all-time scoring list.... USF is 1-9 against the spread versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season over the last two seasons.... Louisville is 5-16 versus the spread in home games after playing four consecutive games as favorite over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE covered the spread 579 times, while S FLORIDA covered the spread 421 times. *EDGE against the spread =LOUISVILLE. In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE won the game straight up 969 times, while S FLORIDA won 26 times. In 1000 simulated games, 660 games went over the total, while 340 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, S FLORIDA covered the first half line 513 times, while LOUISVILLE covered the first half line 487 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 607 games went over first half total, while 345 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LOUISVILLE is 16-4 against the spread versus S FLORIDA since 1997.
--LOUISVILLE is 17-3 straight up against S FLORIDA since 1997.
--8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--LOUISVILLE is 11-9 versus the first half line when playing against S FLORIDA since 1997.
--8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bulls are 3-14 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
--Bulls are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Louisville.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Louisville.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 51-23-1 in USF last 75 overall.
--Under is 43-18 in USF last 61 road games.
--Under is 18-7-1 in USF last 26 Tue. games.
--LOU is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Over is 22-9 in LOU last 31 overall.
--Over is 19-7 in LOU last 26 home games.
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#539 KANSAS @ #540 TEXAS TECH
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, Big 12 Network, ESPN3 - Line: Kansas -7.5, Total: 138.5) - While freshmen Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid receive most of the attention, it could be support players such as sophomore Perry Ellis who determine how far Kansas goes in the NCAA Tournament. The No. 8 Jayhawks try for their sixth straight victory over Texas Tech when they visit the Red Raiders on Tuesday, and could certainly use another monster performance from their 6-8 forward from Wichita. Ellis was named Big 12 co-Player of the Week after scoring a career-high 32 points in Kansas' 95-65 victory over Texas Christian on Saturday as the first-place Jayhawks maintained their one-game lead over No. 17 Texas in the conference standings.
"He put the ball in the hoop whenever we gave it to him," Kansas freshman point guard Wayne Selden Jr. told reporters of Ellis, who averages 14 points - second on the team to Wiggins' 16.1 - and 6.9 rebounds, trailing only Embiid (7.8). The Red Raiders had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 70-64 loss at No. 19 Iowa State on Saturday after rallying from an 18-point deficit to take the lead with 3:02 left. The Jayhawks will have to pay extra attention to Texas Tech senior forward Jaye Crockett, who scored a career-high 23 points Saturday and averages team highs of 14.8 points and 6.7 rebounds.
•ABOUT KANSAS (19-6, 13-11-1 ATS, 10-2 Big 12): With a showdown looming with the Longhorns on Saturday, the Jayhawks cannot get caught looking past dangerous Texas Tech. Wiggins (5.8 rebounds per game) and Embiid (10.7 points) have struggled on the road in their last three games, with Wiggins averaging 12.3 points and shooting 10-for-37 from the field in a victory over Baylor and losses to Texas and Kansas State, and Embiid scoring only 19 points and shooting 6-for-20 from the field combined. Kansas, which is 4-2 in Big 12 road games, has outrebounded 21 of its 25 opponents this season and held all but one - Duke - to less than 50 percent field goal shooting.
•ABOUT TEXAS TECH (13-12, 14-8-0 ATS, 5-7 Big 12): The Red Raiders boast the No. 2 scoring defense in the Big 12 at 68.3 points per game and must turn in another strong performance on the boards after outrebounding Iowa State 40-30. Junior forward Jordan Tolbert is second in scoring (10.8) and rebounding (5.9) while helping Texas Tech average a would-be school record 35 points in the paint. The Red Raiders are struggling from 3-point range (Big 12-worst 32.3 percent), going 13-for-57 in their last four games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Kansas is 17-0 when leading at halftime, including 9-0 in Big 12 contests.... Texas Tech is trying to win six conference games for the first time since 2008.... Kansas' Bill Self (2008) and Texas Tech's Tubby Smith (1998 with Kentucky) are two of the 11 active coaches who have won a National Championship.... Self is 1-2 against National Championship coaches this season, defeating Mike Krzyzewski (Duke) while losing to Steve Fisher (San Diego State) and Billy Donovan (Florida).... The Red Raiders are 5-17 versus the spread in home games versus good foul drawing teams - attempting more than 25 free throws/game after 15+ games since 1997.... KU is 18-9 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS TECH covered the spread 613 times, while KANSAS covered the spread 387 times. *EDGE against the spread =TEXAS TECH. In 1000 simulated games, KANSAS won the game straight up 605 times, while TEXAS TECH won 361 times. In 1000 simulated games, 818 games went over the total, while 182 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS TECH covered the first half line 581 times, while KANSAS covered the first half line 383 times. *EDGE against first half line =TEXAS TECH. In 1000 simulated games, 733 games went over first half total, while 237 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KANSAS is 14-7 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH since 1997.
--KANSAS is 17-4 straight up against TEXAS TECH since 1997.
--8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--KANSAS is 14-7 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS TECH since 1997.
--9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Texas Tech.
--Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--KU is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
--Over is 13-3 in KU last 16 overall.
--Over is 8-1 in KU last 9 vs. Big 12.
--TTU is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12.
--TTU is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Under is 15-5-1 in TTU last 21 overall.
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#541 VIRGINIA @ #542 VIRGINIA TECH
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ACC Network, ESPN3 - Line: Virginia -11, Total: 120) - Virginia visits in-state rival Virginia Tech on Tuesday as heavy favorites to extend its longest ACC win streak in 32 years. The Hokies snapped a 10-game losing streak with Saturday’s 52-45 win over Miami, but they’ll need an even better effort to upset No. 13 Virginia, which stands at 12-1 in ACC play for the first time since 1981-82. The Cavaliers boast the nation’s top defense, allowing an average of 55.6 points, while Virginia Tech was held under 60 points in five of its last six games.
Guard Malcolm Brogdon averages a team-high 15.1 points in league games for Virginia, which turned around its season after losing at Tennessee by 35 points on Dec. 30. The Cavaliers have posted double-figure wins in nine ACC games, and they’re 6-1 on the road in league play after going 2-7 in conference road games last season. “We don’t change our mentality when we go on the road,” Brogdon told The Daily Progress. “We have a saying on our team: defense travels.”
•ABOUT VIRGINIA (21-5, 13-8-1 ATS, 12-1 ACC): The Cavaliers, who have won nine straight, trail top-ranked Syracuse by one-half game in the ACC standings and feature one of the most balanced teams in the country with six players averaging between 12.3 and 6.9 points overall. Guard Joe Harris scored 16 points and moved into second place on the school’s career list for made 3-pointers with 241 on Saturday, when the Cavaliers snapped a four-game losing streak at Clemson with a 63-58 victory. Brogdon, shooting 90.2 percent from the foul line, scored a team-high 18 points in last month’s 65-45 win over Virginia Tech.
•ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (9-15, 8-11-0 ATS, 2-10 ACC): Forward C.J. Barksdale battled through a groin injury and collected 12 points and seven rebounds to help the Hokies complete a season sweep of the Hurricanes. Guard Adam Smith will miss his eighth straight game due to a stress fracture in his left leg, but guard Ben Emelogu played through a sprained ankle against Miami and had nine points. Guard Devin Wilson, averaging a team-high 36.5 minutes in league play, led the Hokies with 12 points in last month’s loss to the Cavaliers.
•PREGAME NOTES: Virginia leads the all-time series 85-53, including four straight wins.... Virginia Tech F Cadarian Raines, averaging 6.7 points off the bench in league play, is listed as questionable after missing last Saturday's game due to illness.... The Cavaliers are 17-1 when leading at halftime.... The Hokies are 0-9 versus the spread in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... Virginia is 7-0 against the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA TECH covered the spread 525 times, while VIRGINIA covered the spread 440 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA won the game straight up 751 times, while VIRGINIA TECH won 225 times. In 1000 simulated games, 745 games went over the total, while 233 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA TECH covered the first half line 612 times, while VIRGINIA covered the first half line 388 times. *EDGE against first half line =VIRGINIA TECH. In 1000 simulated games, 744 games went over first half total, while 256 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--VIRGINIA is 15-9 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH since 1997.
--VIRGINIA is 18-9 straight up against VIRGINIA TECH since 1997.
--13 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--VIRGINIA is 16-11 versus the first half line when playing against VIRGINIA TECH since 1997.
--12 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Cavaliers are 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Cavaliers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Virginia Tech.
--Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UVA is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--UVA is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
--Under is 27-11 in UVA last 38 Tue. games.
--VT is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--Under is 9-1 in VT last 10 home games.
--Under is 13-3 in VT last 16 vs. Atlantic Coast.
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#543 IOWA @ #544 INDIANA
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Iowa -4, Total: 143.5) - Two teams heading in opposite directions cross paths Tuesday as Indiana hosts Iowa in a Big Ten game. The 15th-ranked Hawkeyes have won three straight contests, giving them three consecutive road victories in conference play for the first time since the 1997-98 season. The Hoosiers have lost three in a row and are trying to avoid their first four-game skid since dropping the last nine of the 2010-11 campaign.
Indiana sophomore Yogi Ferrell continues to lead the Big Ten in scoring at 17.9 points and was rewarded for his exceptional season Monday by being named as one of 23 finalists for the Bob Cousy Award, which annually goes to the nation’s top point guard. Ferrell had his best game of the campaign late year against the visiting Hawkeyes, totaling 19 points and five assists in a 73-60 win. Ferrell will be countered by Mike Gesell, who missed last season’s second game against Indiana with a foot injury but has reached double figures in scoring each of the last three games for the first time in two years with Iowa.
•ABOUT IOWA (19-6 SU, 15-8-0 ATS, 8-4 Big Ten): Melsahn Basabe scored at least 20 points five times as a freshman during the 2010-11 campaign, but the 6-7 senior forward hasn’t hit that mark in three seasons since. Basabe still has solid skills, evident by his 16-point performance on 6-of-9 shooting in Saturday’s win over Penn State, but the Hawkeyes have much more depth than they did three years ago. If there’s a player Iowa would like to get untracked, it’s 6-8 forward Jarrod Uthoff, who has failed to score more than seven points in any of his last eight games after reaching double figures in 10 of the first 17.
•ABOUT INDIANA (14-11 SU, 11-12-1 ATS, 4-8 Big Ten): The Hoosiers also feature the top rebounder in the Big Ten in 6-10 freshman Noah Vonleh, who is averaging 9.5 boards - 2.1 better than his closest pursuer. Vonleh has grabbed at least 12 rebounds in six of the last eight games and has avoided fouling out in the last 11 after recording five fouls in back-to-back contests at the end of December. Iowa features a true center in 7-1 sophomore Adam Woodbury, and Basabe and Aaron White each average 6.6 rebounds, so there will be some competition around the rim for Vonleh.
•PREGAME NOTES: Indiana F Hanner Mosquera-Perea remains suspended indefinitely following his arrest early Friday morning for allegedly driving under the influence.... The Hawkeyes have four Big Ten road victories for the first time in 10 years.... Iowa is attempting to reach the 20-win mark by the end of February for the 10th time in program history.... The Hoosiers are 45-71 against the spread versus excellent ball handling teams - committing less than 12 turnovers/game since 1997.... The Hawkeyes are 19-5 versus the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA covered the spread 506 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 465 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA won the game straight up 618 times, while INDIANA won 354 times. In 1000 simulated games, 621 games went over the total, while 379 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA covered the first half line 496 times, while IOWA covered the first half line 464 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 587 games went over first half total, while 413 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--IOWA is 21-9 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1997.
--IOWA is 17-13 straight up against INDIANA since 1997.
--14 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--INDIANA is 15-15 versus the first half line when playing against IOWA since 1997.
--13 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Hawkeyes are 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
--Hawkeyes are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Indiana.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--IOWA is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
--IOWA is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 vs. Big Ten.
--Under is 6-2 in IOWA last 8 Tue. games.
--Under is 7-1 in IND last 8 overall.
--Under is 6-2 in IND last 8 Tue. games.
--Under is 7-1 in IND last 8 vs. Big Ten.
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#545 DUKE @ #546 GEORGIA TECH
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ACC Network, ESPN3 - Line: Duke -11, Total: 140.5) - Duke playing big games late in the season is nothing new, but even the vaunted national powerhouse faces quite the challenge this week after an emotional victory Saturday over Maryland. The sixth-ranked Blue Devils are in the midst of four games in eight nights, traveling to Georgia Tech on Tuesday before a Thursday contest at arch-rival North Carolina and home game against top-ranked Syracuse two days later. Duke has fared well since losing two of its first three ACC contests, winning eight of nine, while Georgia Tech beat Boston College 74-71 on Thursday for only its second victory since Jan. 21.
The Yellow Jackets face a formidable task in knocking off the Blue Devils, and need leading scorer Trae Golden – who has missed two of the past three games with a groin injury and whose status for Tuesday is uncertain – at full strength. One positive for the Yellow Jackets is the return of Robert Carter Jr., who recorded 10 points and five rebounds Thursday in his second game back following January knee surgery. Freshman Jabari Parker showed plenty of poise down the stretch in Duke’s 69-67 victory over Maryland on Saturday, hitting 9-of-10 free throws and scoring 23 points.
•ABOUT DUKE (20-5 SU, 16-9-0 ATS, 9-3 ACC): Parker arguably is the best all-around player in the ACC, ranking second in the conference in scoring at 19.3 and leading the league in rebounding at 8.5. His 15 games of 20 or more points is four away from the ACC record for most 20-plus point outings by a freshman, and his 47.8 percent field-goal percentage is sixth-best in the league. Sophomore Rodney Hood is just as capable of taking over a game – scoring 27 points in Duke’s 79-57 win over Georgia Tech last month – and is a big threat from 3-point range, hitting 44.3 percent of his attempts.
•ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (13-12 SU, 9-9-1 ATS, 4-8 ACC): Marcus Georges-Hunt scored the final eight points as the Yellow Jackets rallied past Boston College, perhaps a jumping-off point for the sophomore who has struggled to find his consistency on offense. Center Daniel Miller is averaging 15.7 points in his past six games and is first in ACC play in blocked shots per game at 2.8. Carter, who led the ACC in rebounding before injuring his knee Dec. 29, hit 5-of-7 shots off the bench Thursday and could provide the Yellow Jackets with a huge boost offensively down the stretch.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Blue Devils are outscoring ACC opponents by 12.1 points per game.... Georgia Tech was outrebounded 46-25 by Virginia, but dominated the boards against Boston College, 36-19.... Duke’s victory over the Yellow Jackets extended its winning streak in the series to six.... Duke is 11-2 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season.... The Yellow Jackets are 8-17 against the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last two seasons.... The Blue Devils are 12-4 versus the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GEORGIA TECH covered the spread 501 times, while DUKE covered the spread 472 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, DUKE won the game straight up 766 times, while GEORGIA TECH won 210 times. In 1000 simulated games, 713 games went over the total, while 287 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, GEORGIA TECH covered the first half line 552 times, while DUKE covered the first half line 448 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 668 games went over first half total, while 293 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DUKE is 22-9 against the spread versus GEORGIA TECH since 1997.
--DUKE is 28-3 straight up against GEORGIA TECH since 1997.
--19 of 28 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--DUKE is 17-13 versus the first half line when playing against GEORGIA TECH since 1997.
--13 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Blue Devils are 19-8 ATS in the last 27 meetings.
--Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Georgia Tech.
--Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Georgia Tech.
--Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--DUKE is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--DUKE is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--DUKE is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games.
--GT is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--GT is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
--Under is 6-1 in GT last 7 Tuesday games.
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#559 UTAH ST @ #560 SAN DIEGO ST
(TV: 11:05 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: San Diego State -10, Total: 128) - Mountain West-leading San Diego State opens a key two-game stretch with a home contest against Utah State on Tuesday. The Aztecs, who dropped to No. 7 in the rankings this week after having their 20-game winning streak snapped at Wyoming last week, needed overtime to defeat the Aggies 74-69 in their first meeting in Logan, Utah on Jan. 25. Tuesday marks the first time the schools will have played in San Diego since 1998, when the Aggies edged the Aztecs 63-60 for their only victory in four all-time meetings between the schools.
San Diego State brings an 11-game home winning streak into the contest. Despite their impressive 20-game overall winning streak, the Aztecs hold just a one-game lead over New Mexico (19-5, 10-2) in the Mountain West. San Diego State faces the Lobos at The Pit in Albuquerque on Saturday in the first of two key meetings between the schools over a two-week span.
•ABOUT UTAH STATE (15-10 SU, 13-9-1 ATS, 5-8 Mountain West): The Aggies had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 73-62 home loss to UNLV on Saturday. Center Jarred Shaw recorded his third double-double in four games in the defeat, finishing with 20 points and 12 rebounds despite going up against reigning Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Khem Birch. Shaw (14.7) leads the Aggies in scoring, with guards Spencer Butterfield (13.4) and Preston Medlin (13.2) not far behind.
•ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (22-2 SU, 12-9-0 ATS, 11-1 Mountain West): Point guard Xavier Thames is the front-runner for Mountain West Player of the Year honors, averaging a team-best 17.7 points while also shooting 40.9 percent from 3-point range. He scored a career-high 31 points in the first meeting with the Aggies, including 10 in overtime. Forward Winston Shepard (12.9) is the only other Aztec to average in double figures and pairs with Thames to give San Diego State arguably the two best on-ball defenders in the conference.
•PREGAME NOTES: San Diego State is unbeaten in its last 112 games when leading with five minutes to play.... The Aztecs (57.0) rank third nationally in scoring defense.... A win on Tuesday would be the 600th career coaching victory for Utah State's Stew Morrill.... San Diego State is 0-6 versus the spread in home games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last two seasons.... The Aggies are 3-12 against the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH ST covered the spread 543 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the spread 423 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN DIEGO ST won the game straight up 715 times, while UTAH ST won 261 times. In 1000 simulated games, 671 games went over the total, while 304 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH ST covered the first half line 556 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the first half line 388 times. *EDGE against first half line =UTAH ST. In 1000 simulated games, 676 games went over first half total, while 324 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN DIEGO ST is 3-0 against the spread versus UTAH ST since 1997.
--UTAH ST is 2-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SAN DIEGO ST is 2-1 versus the first half line when playing against UTAH ST since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--USU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
--Under is 18-7 in USU last 25 road games.
--Over is 6-1 in USU last 7 vs. Mountain West.
--SDSU is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Tue. games.
--Under is 21-6 in SDSU last 27 overall.
--Under is 16-5 in SDSU last 21 home games.
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