Tuesday 2/14/12 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[JonnyGlax9]

paparazzi Picks:

paparazzi triple play, first multiple units play since starting the service:

central michigan won the first meeting against eastern michigan this season but since then they are 0-9 su and 2-7 ats while eastern michigan is 5-4 su and 7-2 ats. even in that win over eastern michigan earlier this season, central michigan was outshot and outrebounded, so there is a reason why they are only favored by 3.5 at home after winning as 1 pt favorite over this same opponent on the road. central michigan offense is ranked #301 in ppg and #332 in fg% in the nation, and their defense is not doing much better allowing just under 70 ppg in last 9 games. eastern michigan offense is not much better but at least they scored 68 in their last game against one of the better mac defenses. eastern michigan defense is not just slowing down opponents offenses, but they are also defending shooters well, especially from the three point line. they have two road wins in the mac this season with one ot loss, as well as 4 outright underdog win in the conference which is better than 1 home mac win and 2 overall mac wins for central. i am taking eastern michigan +4 for 3 units at thegreek.com (you can either wait to see if other books will up this line to +4 or buy half pt). if it gets down to +3 or lower, just play it for 2 units

one more play from paparazzi (double play):

illinois state is now 10-1 ats in last 11 after a non cover and 7-2 su this season after a su loss. that is usually the best indicator of how well coached a team really is. any team can lose on any given day. the problem is usually in teams bounce back ability. illinois state is a very good bounce back team and the reason for that is coaching, and defense. the last three times they played after a loss they allowed 54, 48 and 65 regulation time points. they are getting abreak here against an indiana state team that could be looking ahead to a bracket buster road game against their in-state rivals butler. they dont play butler very often these days but this rivalery started in 1903 and they faced each other 127 times since then. the fact that they did not play each other in several seasons makes this old rivalry more anticipated. very very dangerous spot for the sycamores. i am taking illinois state +4 for 2 units.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Experts

Cleveland State at WI-Milwaukee
Play: Cleveland State

After suffering back to back disappointing losses at home (as favorites), Cleveland State needs this one badly. They'll be taking on a Wisconsin Milwaukee team that just lost outright 70-46 to Wright State on Sunday. The Vikings remain just one-half game behind Horizon League leader Valparaiso, who plays 7-17 IL-Chicago tonight. When these teams met last month, it was all Cleveland State in an 83-57 win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence Comp

Youngstown State at Wis-Green Bay
Prediction: Wis-Green Bay

The Phoenix were handed their worst loss ever in conference history earlier this year at Youngstown, a 77-47 beating at the hands of the Penguins. The history between the Phoenix and Penguins (17-6 SU and 16-7 ATS, including 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS at home and 3-0 ATS with revenge) is clearly in the Cheeseheads favor. Toss in the fact that Green Bay is 5-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home off a previous home loss under second-year HC Brian Wardle ? and that Youngstown is entering off back-to-back same-season revengers with Butler and Valpo (0-7 SU after Crusaders) - and we have the makings of a cheeseburger in paradise in Green Bay tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Wisconsin Green Bay.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer Comp

Creighton at Southern Illinois
Prediction: Creighton

Enough is enough, already. The Blue Jays, who just a couple of weeks ago were inching their way towards the top-10, now find themselves ranked 28th in the AP after losing 3 straight games. Creighton has simply gone cold, making just 68 of 166, 40.9% of their FGA, including a frigid 14 of 61, 22.9% from behind the arc. To show how well they were performing, the Jays are still #1 in CBB, making 50.4% of their shots on the season, including 42.6% (3rd) from area code 3. The Jays rocked the Salukis, 90-71 in Omaha in January. SIU doesn't shoot well and they don't defend well. SIU attempted to double Doug McDermott and deny him the basketball. That resulted in "holding" the Jays' star to 25 points with the team "canning" 55% of their shots. SIU should be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Jays to get back on track. They're 4-0 ATS off a rare double-digit home loss, and they're on a 6-0 ATS run in Carbondale. More of the same here. I'm laying the points with Creighton on Tuesday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Matt Fargo Comp

Cleveland State @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee
PICK: Wisconsin-Milwaukee -1

We would have liked to have seen Cleveland St. win on Saturday against Butler but this was going to be a play against either way. The Vikings have dropped two straight games, both of those coming at home, to fall to 10-4 in the conference. They are a half-game behind Valparaiso so this is certainly a must win game with only three games left in the Horizon after this but a must win game does not always mean a sure win. The Vikings are a solid 11-2 on the road but this is a tough road spot.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee is also riding a two-game losing streak but those two losses came on the road and now the Panthers are back home for what is their final conference home game of the season. While they are 8-7 in the conference and sitting in sixth place, they are just one game out of third place so these remaining games mean something for them as well. The Panthers are 10-3 at home this season including a 6-2 conference record and this marks their first home game is February.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ben Burns Comp

San Antonio @ Detroit
PICK: Detroit +8

I believe the home underdog is offering us fairly solid value here. Yes, the Spurs have really been rolling. They're laying a big number here though and they're facing a Detroit team which has quietly won four of its last five games and which is 5-1 ATS its last six.

Even with their recent hot streak and Saturday's blowout of New Jersey , the Spurs are still only 5-8 ATS against teams with a losing record.

It should also be noted that the Spurs, who play at Toronto tomorrow, haven't typically blown teams out this season, when playing the front end of back to back games.

Too often, bettors focus on how teams fare in the back end of back-to-back games and fail to pay attention to how they perform in the front end. Its important to know how teams tend to do in both situations though, this year arguably more than ever.

Check this out. This will be the eighth time in 2012 that the Spurs will be playing the front end of back-to-back games. They didn't win any of the previous seven of those games by more than eight points. In fact, they lost four of those seven outright. Two victories came by three and four points, neither of those resulted in a cover. The lone "big" win came by only eight points - and it was at home.

The Pistons beat Portland here and they lost by only three vs. the Heat here. Don't be surprised if they give their streaking guests all they can handle.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Stephen Nover Comp

Washington @ Portland
PICK: Portland -15

There's only one way to go with Portland hosting Washington. And it's not backing the Wizards on the road.

The Wizards are 2-10 on the road with their two victories coming against Charlotte, the worst team in the league, and an upset of Detroit this past Sunday. Washington is 4-8 ATS in its away matchups.

This isn't surprising since the Wizards have been one of the worst road teams for the past couple of years failing to cover in 35 of their past 51 trips. They also have been a money-burner as a big 'dog, too, going 1-8 ATS the last nine times when taking 11 or more points.

Can the young, immature and disfunctional Wizards actually, though, put together two solid road efforts? The evidence doesn't point to this occurring, especially at this road venue.

In their last seven road losses, the Wizards were beaten by 17 points at Toronto, by six at Orlando, by 27 at Houston, by a combined 51 points in two losses to the 76ers, by 14 at Chicago and by 18 again at Orlando. That's an average road loss of 19 points.

Washington is 14-41 ATS following a victory. Only once all season have the Wizards even covered in back-to-back games.

The Wizards have struggled, like many teams, at Rose Garden. They last won in Portland in 2005. During their past four visits to Rose Garden, the Wizards have been outscored by 17.5 points per game averaging less than 80 points during this time frame.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist Comp

Mississippi St vs LSU
Pick: LSU

An SEC rivalry battle between a pair of teams with winning overall records. Mississippi State is shooting for 20 wins, but the Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record and on a 1-4 ATS overall run. LSU has won 2 of 3 games including a big win over Alabama the last game, 67-58. The Tigers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings so grab the fired up home court in this one. Play LSU!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Tuesday Bonus Play is UC-Davis

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CHUCK O'BRIEN COMP

My Bonus Play for tonight is in the NBA, as I take the Chicago Bulls over the Sacramento Kings, despite not seeing an overnight line and despite the fact the Bulls will likely be without Derrick Rose once again.

Though Rose will probably miss his third straight game due to some hampering back spasms, make note the Bulls have played well without him. There's no doubt they'd love to have him back, especially after seeing how much his leadership was missed in the team's last game, in which it lost by four to the Celtics on Sunday. Then again, there might something to be said for the fact the Bulls were down by as many as 14 points with five minutes left in the game, but the Bulls put the shackles on Boston with a stifling defense to pull within three points with just 1:23 remaining. Though they fell short, I was impressed with the resilience the team played with, even though it was playing its ninth straight road game in two weeks.

Now here come the Kings who admittedly, yes, have won four of their last six, but are also coming in after a disappointing 98-84 loss to the Suns on Saturday, after upsetting the league-leading Thunder a couple nights before. No doubt about it, Sacramento has been playing above and beyond what we've seen from this team. Tonight they're going to have their hands full in a series the Bulls have dominated.

Chicago has won six of the last seven meetings, including a 108-98 showdown on Dec 29. I'm also aware the Kings are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Chicago, but they're also 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings overall.

I cannot trust the Kings when I don't know which team is going to show up for the game: the one that just beat the Thunder or the one that fell flat against the Suns. What I do know is how the Bulls bring it every single night and would much rather take my chances with a team I know should win by double digits.

Lay the chalk, regardless of Rose's status, as Chicago rolls.
2? CHICAGO

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MATT RIVERS COMP

Now on to your comp play winner for tonight, and it will be backing the underdog Suns to cover against the struggling Nuggets.

Denver has usually been reliable on their home court in the past, but this season the Nuggets are no better than .500, as they come into tonight's game with losses in seven of their last nine games overall, and sport just a 7-7 straight up mark on their home hardwood. Against the spread Denver is just 6-8 at home for the year.

Phoenix just played last night in a hard-fought loss at Golden State. That loss snapped a three-game road win and cover streak for the Suns, and while Phoenix is definitely an aged team, they have at least gone 4-3 against the spread when playing with no-rest.

Denver has a big game tomorrow night in Dallas, so I think their is a solid chance the Suns come into the Mile High city tonight, and sneak inside of the back-door for the underdog cover.

Take the Suns plus the points as your comp play for Tuesday.
3♦ PHOENIX

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CHRIS JORDAN COMP

Time for the Creighton Blue Jays to put an end to this three-game losing streak, and I think they're in the right spot to do so. Thus, they're my free pick for Tuesday night, in Edwardsville, Illinois, where they'll double-digit rout the Southern Illinois Salukis.

While Creighton, out of Omaha, Nebraska, has been struggling just recently, the Salukis have had problems all season, and comes into this Missouri Valley Conference showdown with a disappointing 5-10 conference mark, and an overall record 8-18. The Salukis have dropped four of five, and can't seem to get things clicking offensively.

That could pose a problem against the Jays, who were humbled by a very talented Wichita State team on Saturday, losing 89-68. Now, assumedly, Creighton needs to win the rest of the season, and needs the Shockers to start losing if it wants a shot at the Valley's regular-season title.

As it's been since its inception, the three-pointer is a dangerous weapon when you live - and die by it. Well, the Jays have been doing just that all season long, and lately those shots aren't falling and they've been dying beyond the arc. But make no bones about, you keep playing your game, you keep making attempts, the law of averages pan out and your shots will eventually fall.

Creighton has the top shooting percentage in the nation at a little better than 50 percent, and it's long overdue for a big-scoring game from the 10th-best scoring offense in the land, one that is averaging nearly 80 points per game.

Creighton in on ATS runs of 4-0 in this series, and 6-0 in Edwardsville, while it generally rebounds from embarrassing losses at home pretty good, sporting a perfect 4-0 ATS mark after losing by double digits in Omaha.

Normally I wouldn't think about backing a road team laying this many while enduring a losing streak, but this Creighton lineup is too good to doubt. The Jays are by far the better team in this game, and now that they're in must-win mode, I think we're going to see a double-digit win by them over a poor Southern Illinois team.
1♦ CREIGHTON

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SCOTT DELANEY COMP

I head to the Big 10 tonight for your free winner, and come with a rare total, as I like the Under in the Ohio State-Minnesota clash inside Williams Arena, in Minneapolis.

Since coach Tubby Smith took over the Golden Gophers program, there have been high hopes in "The Barn," on Southeast University Avenue. This year the team is looking for an at-large berth during next month's madness. And to get it, they're going to need a bit of strong finish over the last two weeks of the season. Whether or not they can beat the Ohio State Buckeyes - who right now still could argue for a No. 1 seed - remains to be seen. But knowing Smith, he'll have his Gophers thinking about a defensive effort tonight on their home court.

Though they're just 5-7 in the Big 10, they're an impressive 12-3 at home this season. Defensively they're allowing 63.5 points while their opponents are shooting just 41.2 percent. I know Minnesota rolls in with a 1-3 mark against teams ranked in the Top 25, and 3-4 against teams with an RPI of 50 or better, but that's no reason to ignore their chances if they tighten things up defensively against Thad Matta's bunch.

I mean, the Buckeyes are coming in after suffering their first home loss of the season, last Saturday, when they lost by double digits to Michigan State. Ohio State is 9-3 in the Big 10, but is a mediocre 4-3 on the road. Granted, it is tied for first place in the conference standings, but Ohio State might come out a bit tentative on the heels of Saturday's humbling and could be cold offensively, as it might play to 'not lose,' rather than 'to win.'

Ohio State will have to get back to playing its game, which is a defensive nature, as it's allowing 56.7 points per game, while allowing their opponents to shoot a paltry 39.7 percent. And just looking at a little research on how this team responds after a double-digit loss in Columbus, it's stayed under five of the last seven times. It's also on a 9-4 under run when playing a winning team. With the total set at 130, I'm going to play this one low, as I don’t see this one getting that high. My play is on the under.
1♦ UNDER OHIO STATE/MINNESOTA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Wynn
Bonus Play: Denver -8 Over Phoenix

Razor Sharp
FREE PICK FOR TUESDAY: Take EASTERN MICHIGAN +4 over Central Michigan

Totals4U
Tuesday's free selection: Atlanta Hawks/Los Angeles Lakers under 178 1/2

Free Selection from Sports Machine
New York / Toronto Over 189

#1 Sports
Tuesday's free selection: Cleveland State Vikings + 1

Platinum Plays
Free Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -12½ Over Utah

Free Selection from Nevada Sharpshooter
Delaware +3 over Hofstra

Golden Dragon Sports
Bonus Play: Denver -8

Hawkeye Sports
Your free selection for Tuesday: Toronto/New York under 190

Huddle Up Sports
Free Winner: LSU -1

Teyas Sports
Free Pick 2/14/2012 CREIGHTON -7 1/2

Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Tuesday:Take OHIO ST -8 over Minnesota

High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Tuesday: Illinois State Redbirds + 4

 

[Munchies]

Could some one get JROdonnell and B Leonard.
PM me what you would like me to pickup for tomorrow

 

[BAMARED]

Bigdogg when you used to post hot streaks by different capper that was very very helpful to me as I work a lot of afternoons and cannot track them properly thanks for all your help if your around it would be very beneficial if you still had those to post. Thanks- Bama Red

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Courtesy of Brisnet

SPOT PLAYS
For Tuesday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Beulah Park (1st) Cowgirl Cody, 3-1
(5th) Ride in the Park, 3-1

Charles Town (2nd) Foolish Surprise, 3-1
(7th) Bigum, 10-1

Parx Racing (7th) Jake N Elwood, 6-1
(8th) London Town, 9-2

Sunland Park (6th) Irish Skirt, 9-2
(11th) New Mexico Kid, 4-1

Turf Paradise (2nd) Cookie's From Tony, 5-1
(9th) Brite Dyna, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Courtesy of Rick Needham

PARX RACING (BENSALEM, PA) TUESDAY FEBRUARY 14, 2012

Happy Valentine's Day

Julien Leparoux, a two-time champion jockey in the United States, and Alan Garcia, who won the 2008 Belmont Stakes (gr. I), will both be at Golden Gate Fields Feb. 18 to compete in the $200,000 El Camino Real Derby (gr. III). The Frenchman Leparoux, one of only four jockeys to win Eclipse Awards as champion apprentice (2006) and champion journeyman (2009), will ride Daddy Nose Best for trainer Steve Asmussen in the El Camino Real Derby. Leparoux, 28, is currently based at Gulfstream Park in Florida, Garcia, who guided Da’ Tara to a $79 shocker in the final leg of the Triple Crown, will pilot Irish-bred Lucky Chappy for Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Graham Motion. Garcia, 26, from Peru, was a champion apprentice in his homeland (2003) and is currently based at Aqueduct in New York. Both jockeys will be making their first trips to Northern California.

RACE #9 - PARX RACING - 3:50 PM EASTERN POST
8.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD ALLOWANCE $47,000.00 PURSE

#3 RAGE OF AQUARIUS
#5 JULENE
#4 SUROOF
#9 BELLEZZA ROSSO

#3 RAGE OF AQUARIUS has turned in "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight starts, hitting the board in each of her last four outings, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her 2nd and 3rd race back. Jockey Angel Arroyo and Trainer Ramon Preciado send her to the post this afternoon ... they've hit the board with an impressive 70% of nearly 100 entries saddled as a team to date, winning at an equally impressive, 30% clip! The morning line favorite is #5 JULENE, who is the pace profile leader, who has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in both of her last two outings, including a 13-length, "POWER RUN WIN" in her 2nd race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Courtesy of The Turf Club Analyst

Beulah Park - Race #7 - Post: 3:51pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $3,500 Class Rating: 72

Rating: 4

#6 DECORATE (ML=3/1)

DECORATE - This gelding is in exceptional form right now. Ended up second in the last race and comes back soon. You always have to be on the prowl for money making jockey/trainer combos; we have one right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SOUND THE CHARGE (ML=2/1), #1 LINE CAMP (ML=5/2), #4 POPULAR DUDE (ML=4/1),

SOUND THE CHARGE - The morning-line choice is vulnerable here with the lack of drills. You always figure that this horse has a shot to be victorious, but he comes up short often.

LINE CAMP - May bounce off of that last extreme effort.

POPULAR DUDE - This gelding didn't race too well last time out of the box. Tough for this closer animal to get up today. Without a hot pace to stir things up, the lone pace is going to make it awfully hard to get the job done.