Tuesday 11/25/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

Champions League TODAY 19:45

Man City

v

B Munich

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ITV		5/2	14/5	11/10	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT MAN CITY	RECENT FORM
ALHLHWHLADHW​ Most recent​	1 - 3 2 - 0	ADAWHWHWAWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Man City have won two of their last nine Champions League home matches

EXPERT VERDICT: It’s been another sorry Champions League campaign for Manchester City and Bayern Munich are unlikely to show them mercy despite having already qualified for the last 16. Bayern have won 11 of their last 12 matches, while City must try to cope without suspended duo Fernandinho and Yaya Toure.

RECOMMENDATION: Bayern Munich
2


REFEREE: Pavel Kralovec STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Champions League TODAY 19:45

Schalke

v

Chelsea

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS5		15/4	11/4	5/6	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT SCHALKE	RECENT FORM
HWALHWALALHW​ Most recent​	0 - 3 0 - 0	ADAWHWADAWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Chelsea are unbeaten in 18 matches this season

EXPERT VERDICT: Schalke boss Roberto Di Matteo faces his former club but it’s unlikely to be a happy ending for the Italian. Chelsea barely got out of first gear when beating West Brom 2-0 and can enjoy themselves against a shaky Schalke defence which has conceded seven goals in the last two Champions League matches.

RECOMMENDATION: Chelsea
2


REFEREE: Jonas Eriksson STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Champions League We 26Nov 19:45

Arsenal

v

B Dortmund

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SKY1		7/5	13/5	2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ARSENAL	RECENT FORM
AWAWHWHDALHL​ Most recent​	1 - 2 2 - 1 2 - 0	HLAWALHWHWAD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Arsenal have kept two clean sheets in their last 11 fixtures

EXPERT VERDICT: Two teams who are close to a crisis domestically meet in the Champions League and backing goals looks to be the best bet. Arsenal’s defence continues to leak far too many goals, including 2-0 in Dortmund on matchday one, but the Germans have been shocking in the Bundesliga and will struggle to keep a clean sheet.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
2

 

[superbeets]

Champions League We 26Nov 19:45

Ludogorets

v

Liverpool

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS5		3	11/4	19/20	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT LUDOGORETS	RECENT FORM
HWHWAWALHWAD​ Most recent​	Unknown	HDHWALALHLAL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Liverpool have won one of their last seven matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Things go from bad to worse for Liverpool and the misery may not be close to ending for Brendan Rodgers with Bulgarian minnows Ludogorets fancied to pull off an upset. The Merseysiders have lost five of their last seven matches and look nothing like the team who finished second in last season’s Premier League.

RECOMMENDATION: Ludogorets
1

 

[superbeets]

Europa League Th 27Nov 16:00

Din. Moscow

v

Panathinaikos

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT2		8/15	14/5	11/2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT DIN. MOSCOW	RECENT FORM
AWHLALHWHWHW​ Most recent​	Unknown	HLADALHWHLAW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Panathinaikos have failed to keep a clean sheet in six Europa League games this season

EXPERT VERDICT: Dynamo Moscow beat Panathinaikos 2-1 in Greece and they should be backed to complete the double over their opponents. The Panathinaikos defence has struggled in European competition, conceding eight goals in four group matches, and they are unlikely to frustrate Dynamo, who have beaten PSV and Estoril at home in the Europa League.

RECOMMENDATION: Dynamo Moscow
3

 

[superbeets]

Europa League Th 27Nov 18:00

Feyenoord

v

Seville

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT1		9/5	12/5	7/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT FEYENOORD	RECENT FORM
ALAWHWHWADHW​ Most recent​	Unknown	HWAWALHWHDAL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Feyenoord have kept four consecutive clean sheets

EXPERT VERDICT: Seville have hit a rough patch after a fine start to the season and, following a thumping 5-1 at Barcelona last time out they face a tricky trip to Feyenoord. The Dutch side lost 2-0 in Seville in September but they are a solid unit who have suffered one defeat in their last nine games, beating Standard Liege and Rijeka on their own patch in this competition.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Grand Salami - November

The Grand Salami in pro hockey is decided by adding up all the goals scored in every game scheduled for that particular day. You can wager on 'over' or 'under' the Grand Salami total. The total is set by adding up all listed 'over/under' odds for each game on that particular day.

Note: The Grand Salami will have no action if any game is suspended or cancelled before the regulation time of three twenty minute periods. Also, regardless of the number of goals scored during the shoot out portion of the overtime, the final scored recorded for the game will give the winning team on more goal than its opponent based on the score at the end of regulation time.

*The majority of sportsbooks do not put out a total on the Grand Salami when there is only one game on the card. For tracking purposes, we will continue to show the 'over/under' for goals and combined goals scored on days with just one game.

NHL GRAND SALAMI

Date No. of Games Total Goals Combined Goals Scored Result
11/1 12 64 54 UNDER
11/2 7 36.5 39 OVER
11/3 1 5 7 OVER
11/4 12 65.5 56 UNDER
11/5 3 15.5 15 UNDER
11/6 10 54.5 56 OVER
11/7 5 26.5 26 UNDER
11/8 12 63.5 77 OVER
11/9 5 27.5 29 OVER
11/10 2 10.5 11 OVER
11/11 11 60.5 60 UNDER
11/12 2 11 18 OVER
11/13 9 49 53 OVER
11/14 6 32.5 28 UNDER
11/15 12 64.5 62 UNDER
11/16 6 31.5 33 OVER
11/17 1 5.5 6 OVER
11/18 11 60.5 65 OVER
11/19 2 11.5 11 UNDER
11/20 11 60.5 62 OVER
11/21 4 **PPD **PPD **PPD
11/22 13 69 74 OVER
11/23 4 22 18 UNDER
11/24 4 - - -
11/25 7 - - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Preview: Flames (13-7) at Ducks (13-4)

Date: November 25, 2014 10:00 PM EDT

Though it hasn't been easy for Calgary coach Bob Hartley to stomach, the Flames continue finding ways to come back and win.

After rallying to beat the Ducks last week and coming off yet another comeback victory, the Flames look to avoid losing their 19th consecutive regular-season game in Anaheim on Tuesday night.

"Never mind the grey hair, I'll have to get my heart checked," Hartley said after Calgary rallied to beat New Jersey on Saturday. "I don't know how they do it but we found a way again. We're not making it easy but we're making it interesting."

Trailing 2-0 after one period and 3-1 after two, Calgary (13-7-2) scored three times in the third, including twice with its goalie pulled, before prevailing 5-4 in a shootout.

It was the first time in team history that the Flames scored twice with their goalie pulled in favor of an extra attacker.

Calgary's league-leading five victories when trailing after two periods are one more than it had in that same scenario last season.

The Flames rebounded after twice rallying to tie Chicago before falling 4-3 on Thursday. That defeat came two days after Calgary overcame a 2-0 deficit to win 4-3 in a shootout against Anaheim (13-4-5).

"We attack, we attack a lot, and we create a lot of scoring chances," backup goaltender Karri Ramo told the Flames' official website. "Sometimes it comes and bites us, but that's what I've noticed and think it's the reason we find success when we're behind. We play on the edge all the time and keep pushing."

Former Ducks goaltender Jonas Hiller made 24 saves and allowed one of three players to score during the shootout Tuesday in his first game against the team with which he spent his first seven seasons.

"To be able to play with that team means a lot," said Hiller, who has a 3.45 goals-against average while splitting his last four starts.

It's likely Hiller will be in net for his return to Anaheim, where the Flames are 0-13-5 in the regular season since a 5-1 victory Jan. 19, 2004. They are 0-12-5 there since a 5-2 win during the 2006 playoffs.

Defenseman Dennis Wideman scored twice against the Ducks last week and added another goal versus Chicago before being held without a point Saturday.

Teammate Curtis Glencross matched his season goal output with two against the Devils. He has seven points in his last seven games, but none in the last six versus Anaheim.

Kyle Palmieri had the tying goal in the third period at Calgary and opened the scoring Sunday as Anaheim beat Arizona 2-1 for its first regulation victory since Nov. 2. The Ducks went 2-1-5 between regulations wins, but still had to sweat things out Sunday.

"We got to learn to play with the lead a little bit better and learn to finish them off instead of inviting them back in," said Frederik Andersen, who made 26 saves after posting a 3.62 GAA while going 1-1-2 in his previous five starts.

Andersen allowed all three goals on 19 shots and two in the shootout against the Flames last week.

Ryan Getzlaf was blanked at Calgary, but has six goals and 15 assists during a 13-game regular-season home point streak against the Flames.

It seems unlikely that Anaheim defenseman Clayton Stoner will be available after missing Sunday's contest because of a possible case of the mumps. Teammates Corey Perry and Francois Beauchemin each missed five games this month with the virus.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Preview: Pistons (3-10) at Bucks (7-7)

Date: November 25, 2014 8:00 PM EDT

Though the Detroit Pistons have endured many poor shooting nights this season, their best came against the Milwaukee Bucks.

Looking to avoid a fifth consecutive defeat, the visiting Pistons will try to end the latest shooting slump with another strong performance against the Bucks on Tuesday night.

Detroit (3-10) is shooting 41.0 percent to rank near the bottom of the league, but has been a touch worse over the last three contests at 38.4.

"We've got to find some answers," coach Stan Van Gundy said after the Pistons shot 37.3 percent during Friday's 99-89 loss at Atlanta. "We as a group, not just the players.

"We just don't have really anybody playing at a very high level. I don't think that we're executing well enough or with enough energy."

Aside from 6-foot-11 Greg Monroe, who is making 48.6 percent of his shots but does most of his scoring near the rim, none of Detroit's other starters are shooting better than 43.8 percent. Kyle Singler's 43.9 is the best mark among a key reserve trio that also features veterans D.J. Augustin and Caron Butler.

"I don't think we're getting good shots overall," said Van Gundy, whose team is 11 of 46 from 3-point range in the last two. "I think that we've got to really go back and re-teach things and do a better job in terms of screening and cutting to get better shots."

Josh Smith went 8 of 19 from the field and finished with a team-high 16 points against the Hawks, who combined with the Pistons on a 9-for-45 performance from long range.

Smith scored two of his 14 points off a key rebound with 15.1 seconds left, then stripped Milwaukee guard Brandon Knight to help the Pistons to a 98-95 home victory Nov. 7. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scored 19 to lead six players in double figures for Detroit, which shot a season-high 49.3 percent, including 11 of 23 from beyond the arc.

Former Bucks guard Brandon Jennings had 15 points with six assists in that game but could miss the rematch after he sat out the fourth quarter Friday with a hyperextended left thumb. Jennings had 47 points and 15 assists in two games at Milwaukee last season.

Detroit has won two in a row and seven of nine against the Bucks, who snapped a three-game series home skid with a 104-101 victory Jan. 22.

Milwaukee (7-7) had won three straight and five of six before losing to Toronto and Washington by a combined 53 points. The Bucks shot 39.9 percent in those two contests, but perhaps more alarming is that their last four opponents shot a combined 50.1 percent.

"We've got to treat every team like they are (one of the top teams) in the conference," said rookie Jabari Parker, who matched a season low with six points during Saturday's 111-100 home loss to the Wizards.

Knight, who played his first two seasons with the Pistons, scored 27 and Giannis Antetokounmpo added 20 in his return to the starting lineup after he was limited to 15 minutes off the bench while dealing with a sore ankle Friday against the Raptors.

Parker scored 18 against the Pistons earlier this month.

Knight has averaged 19.3 points, 8.3 assists and 7.3 rebounds in his last three versus Detroit, which traded him to Milwaukee in the July 2013 deal that included Jennings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Association's top Over bet in action Tuesday
Stephen Campbell

If you're an NBA totals bettor, there are are a few teams you need to keep your eye on. The New Orleans Pelicans are one of them.

The Pels (7-5 straight up) are tied with Boston and Minnesota for the top Over play in the league (9-3 Over/Under).

Anthony Davis' squad will be in action yet again Tuesday when the welcome the Sacramento to the Bayou State. The Kings are listed as 3.5-point road dogs with an O/U of 204.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Soccer CL - Matchday 5 Best Bets

The fifth Champions League matchday tends to be where the top teams secure their progress to the next round. Atletico Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Arsenal and Shakhtar Donetsk can all qualify on Tuesday and Wednesday, while positive results for Real Madrid, Chelsea, Borussia Dortmund and FC Porto can guarantee top spot in their section, thus guaranteeing an easier route to the latter stages of the competition.

Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are both 3/1 to win the tournament, so it's evens that someone else wins it. This is a good demonstration of how, over the last five years, the world's top talent has become more and more concentrated at the biggest four or five clubs. The only other teams with a better than 14/1 chance of winning it are Barcelona at 11/2 and Chelsea at 6/1.

Let's handicap MatchDay 5 of the Champions League.

The Banker: Atletico Madrid to beat Olympiakos at 2/5

Olympiakos have never been total whipping boys at the group stage, and again this year they stand a good chance of qualification for the knockout stages. However, as always, this has been achieved purely through good home form at the Karaiskakis Stadium. Even in international competitions, where home advantage is stronger than in domestic competitions, the difference is astonishing. Olympiakos have won 12 of their last 16 home Champions League games. Away from Piraeus, their record in the same time reads W3, D2, L12. That means 77% of their points are won at home.

Atletico are unbeaten at home since February and have won nine out of ten at the Vicente Calderon this season. A repeat of their defeat away to Olympiakos on Matchday 1 looks very unlikely, and 2/5 looks like your banker of the week.

The Solid Bet: Maribor +1.5 at Sporting Lisbon at evens (1/1)

The 11/1 available on Maribor, who have drawn three out of four in the Champions League so far, makes very little sense and seems purely based on reputation. Not that Sporting Lisbon are that good. They are down in eighth in the Portuguese League, and have themselves drawn six times already this season.

As for Maribor, they are third in the Slovenian league but have hit some form recently, with a 3-1 win at Krka preceding a 4-0 hammering of Koper. There is still every chance that they could qualify from this group. They are just two points off second-placed Schalke 04, whom they host on the final matchday, and the Germans will probably lose to Chelsea tonight.

There are lots of ways to back a clearly underrated Maribor side here. Draw or Maribor is available at an appealing 5/2, but I'm plumping for +1.5 on the handicap at even money. Sporting have only won one Champions League game by more than one goal in six years, and Maribor's impressive draws at home to Chelsea and away to Schalke show they are at this stage on merit.

The Outsider: Ludogorets Razgrad to beat Liverpool at 3/1

Liverpool's current run of results reads one win, one draw and five defeats in their last seven games. The draw (0-0 at home to Hull) and the win (2-1 in the League Cup against Swansea) were arguably their easiest games during that run. Simply put, Liverpool are in big trouble at the moment. They travel to Bulgaria to play newcomers Ludogorets Razgrad just three days after a punishing 3-1 defeat at Crystal Palace for their biggest game of the season so far.

Liverpool's familiar problems just are not going away: with Daniel Sturridge out for another six weeks there is a painful lack of movement in the final third. Steven Gerrard is fast becoming a liability at central midfield - unable to position himself correctly and not doing any of the organisational work one might expect of a captain. And the defence is still dreadful.

In Ludogorets they face a team that has nothing to lose, a team that Liverpool needed a last minute winner to beat at home, who took the lead against Real Madrid and a team who beat Basel. You would be mad to take 19/20 on Liverpool at the moment, and there are few signs that they can buck recent form in Sofia on Wednesday.

The First Goalscorer: Thomas Muller for Bayern Munich at Manchester City at 5/1

Manchester City's woes in the Champions League look set to continue after a disastrous home defeat to CSKA Moscow left them needing two wins from their last two games to qualify for the last 16. They are 12/5 outsiders to beat 23/20 Bayern Munich, who have already won the group. While I would be cautious about siding with either team here, there does look to be a good bet in the first goalscorer market, where Thomas Muller is 5/1 to get on the scoresheet first.

Muller's record against English teams is excellent, and he recently scored a hat-trick for Bayern in a 4-0 win at Eintracht Frankfurt. Manchester City will be attacking a lot, and this will give Bayern good opportunities to counter-attack, which is where Muller is at his best. He also takes penalties.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Betting Preview: PSG a tough out on home turf
By SOCCER AUTHORITY

Champions League football resumes this week, starting Tuesday including Ajax traveling to Paris to visit PSG, who look to extend its dominance at home. Covers Expert Soccer Authority takes a look at a trio of fixtures from Tuesday's board.

PSG v Ajax Amsterdam

PSG will be looking to secure first place in the group with a win against Ajax Tuesday.

With seven wins in a row for PSG, you'd have to expect them to run out comfortable winners in this one. The Parisians have not lost a game at home in the Champions League since 2004. Ajax's away form is equally as impressive, but not in a good way, they haven't won an away game since 2011 (Dinamo Zagreb). PSG will also welcome Zlatan Ibrahimovic back from injury.

Key Stat: PSG are undefeated in 20 of their last 22 matches in the Champions League

PSG -275
Draw +450
Ajax +1100

Man City v Bayern Munich

Nothing other than a win will do for Manchester City as they lie bottom of Group E. Bayern have already secured top spot and won't have much to play for.
A lot of money is coming in on Bayern to win this game, and who can blame the public? Man City have been very poor this season. The public are expecting Bayern to take it easy on Man City due to them already qualifying for the next round, We don’t believe that to be the case, Pep Guardiola as always will have his team motivated to win this one.

Key Stat: Man City have failed to win their last six matches in the Champions League

Man City +260
Draw +280
Bayern Munich +114

Schalke v Chelsea

Chelsea will be able to secure first place in the group with a win in Germany on Tuesday. Chelsea have been in fine form this year, many Bookies have even paid out early on them winning the Barclay's Premier League!

Schalke have been disappointing of late losing three of their last five in all competitions and conceding 10 Goals in the process. They will also be missing their "Wonderkid" Julian Draxler who is sidelined with a hamstring injury. We anticipate a tight game, but Chelsea should have enough to edge it

Key stat: Schalke’s last 10 home games in the Champions league have yielded 3.6 Goals per game

Schalke +375
Draw +275
Chelsea -117

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Houston scored 74.5 ppg in winning its first two games under Sampson, including win as a 12-point dog at Murray State, but Cougars did turn ball over 26.3% of time in those games. Harvard split its first two D-I games, losing by point to Holy Cross on neutral floor. Crimson has also turned ball over a lot (26%) while making just 27.3% from arc.

Troy opened season with losses by 10-22 points to Ole Miss/Georgia; they got hurt badly on boards in those games, while makig 27.7% from arc. Southern Miss beat South Alabama of Sun Belt by 9 last week, then lost by 14 at Alabama; Golden Eagles are making only 26% from arc to start season- they lost all five starters from LY, have a new coach.

Hofstra/South Florida are both 3-1, with both L's to NC State-- USF got beat 68-65 in Raleigh Sunday; Pride lost 76-64 there last Monday. USF's best win was in OT at UAB; Bulls are turning ball over 25% of the time. Hofstra's best win is by point over Stony Brook, America East's #1 club; they scored 93+ points in two of their three wins.

Temple won its last seven games with Penn, but last three were by 6 in OT, then 7-5 points. Owls lost twice in Brooklyn over weekend, falling 74-54 to Duke, then 57-50 to a very young UNLV team, a bad loss. Penn is 0-3 this season, allowing 77.7 ppg in losses by 2-16-6 points, as foes made half their 3's, while Quakers were just 56.6% on foul line.

Akron won two of three games in Charleston over weekend, now is back in chilly northeast after beating USC/South Carolina, losing to Miami by 28; Zips are little banged up, struggled on boards so far. Penn State also won two of three in Charleston, losing in double OT to Charlotte, then beating Cornell/USC by combined total of only three points.

SMU split its first four games, losing at Gonzaga/Indiana while beating Eastern Washington by 9 (looks better after EW won at Indiana Mon.); Mustangs have been soft on defense, allowing 37% of opponents' missed shots to be grabbed by them. Arkansas hung 97-99 on couple stiffs but also beat Wake Forest by 30; they've made 52% of 3's first three games.

Miami just beat Charlotte 77-58 in Charleston finals, despite going 6-22 on arc; teams meet again 48 hours later. 'canes weren't threatened in that tourney after winning 69-67 at Florida. Miami was +10 in turnovers on Sunday, with three starters playing 36:00. 49ers' two wins in Charleston were in double OT over Penn State, by hoop over South Carolina.

USC lost two of three games in Charleston, with last two both decided by a hoop; Trojans scored 70-72 points in their wins, 68-46-61 in three losses. Fullerton lost by 17-8 at Santa Clara/New Mexico, then beat San Jose by 4 at home; three opponents made 52% of 3's vs Titans, who lost 76-62 at USC LY, game that was 45-25 at halftime.

Purdue beat up on three stiffs to start season, then lost 88-79 to K-State Monday; Wildcats shot 59% inside arc. Boilers are in bottom 10 in USA country in experience- they were down 15 at half yesterday, played one guy more than 26:00. Missouri's young team hung in with Arizona for a half Monday (trailed 32-25), lost by 19 to a much better team.

Arizona won its first four games, but show tendency to drift early in games, then pull away against inferior foes, winning all four games by 17+ points. Only one guy played 30:00 Monday. Kansas State is off to 3-1 start despite 69-60 loss at Long Beach State; Wildcats shot 59% on 2-point shots Monday, had 13 offensive boards in 88-79 win vs Purdue.

San Diego State needed double OT to dispatch BYU late Monday night, surviving Cougars' 13-30 shooting from arc. Aztecs are 4-0, solid 53-49 win against Utah, but Aztecs made just 19-31 on foul line last nite. Pitt beat up on three stiffs (D-II Chaminade yesterday), also lost 74-70 to Hawai'i over weekend. Panthers aren't forcing lot of turnovers (14%).

Northwestern is 4-0 but is playing 5th opponent in row ranked outside top 200; Wildcats have three wins by 7 or less points, including OT win at home over #261 Elon Sunday, little shaky. Miami OH beat couple of stiff teams and lost by 19 at Evansville; RedHawks have allowed foes to make 57% of shots inside arc (bottom 40 in country).

Boise State is off to 3-1 start, winning by 6-6-5 points with 78-54 loss at Wisconsin, one of best teams in country; Broncos won last four games with Idaho by 3-3-9-10 points- they better not look ahead to NC State trip this weekend. Vandals lost by 11 at Northern Illinois in their first road game; Idaho allowed 78-77 points in first two D-I games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Betting Recap - Week 13
By Daniel Dobish

Overall Notes

College Football Week 13 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 44-16
Against the Spread 31-28-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 42-18
Against the Spread 31-28-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 19-34


The largest underdog to cash
Wake Forest (+13.5, ML +450) vs Virginia Tech, 6-3 (2OT)

The largest favorite to cash
Georgia (-42.5) vs Charleston Southern, 55-9

Top 25 Notes
-- The Top 10 fared pretty well, but there was one casualty. Mississippi ran into red-hot Arkansas, and it wasn't even close. The Hogs took care of Hotty Toddy by a 30-0 count, as the Rebels limp into the Egg Bowl next weekend.

-- Florida State nearly joined Ole Miss in the loser's lounge, but they managed a 20-17 win against Boston College.

-- Nebraska could not hold off Minnesota in Lincoln, allowing a game-winning touchdown with 3:25 left in regulation. The Huskers were unable to respond.

-- Arizona State rebounded with a 52-31 victory over Washington State, improving to 3-1 ATS over their past four home games.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- It was a weekend for the underdogs in the ACC. In seven league games, the underdog went 6-1 ATS, including the conference picture changing 45-20 win by North Carolina at Duke. ... Virginia crushed Miami-Florida by a 30-13 count despite being a short 'dog, and the loss drops the 'Canes to 1-4 SU/ATS on the road this season. UVA wrapped up the season 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS at home. ... The worst game of the entire weekend in all leagues was in Winston-Salem, as Virginia Tech-Wake Forest played to a scoreless tie through regulation. In the extra sessions it was a field goal fest, with Wake mercifully finishing off the Hokies by a 6-3 count in double-overtime.

-- For the second straight week, we have a new single-game all-time rushing king. Oklahoma's RB Samaje Perine rolled for an FBS-record 427 yards in a 44-7 win against Kansas. The ink was barely dry in the record book after Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon set the record last weekend. ... Kansas State picked up a quality road win at West Virginia Thursday night, 26-20. K-State has covered seven of their past eight heading into next week's game against Kansas. ... Oklahoma State snapped a five-game non-cover streak with a 49-28 win at Baylor. The Bears entered 3-1 ATS in four home games, but they're now just 2-3 ATS in their past five games overall.

-- The 'dogs were barking in the Big Ten Saturday, too. ... In seven games, the underdogs hit in five games, with only Michigan State and Northwestern covering as favorites. ... Everyone in the Big Ten scored at least one touchdown except for Rutgers, who was held to just three points by Sparty. It was surprising as the 'over' was 4-1 in the past five for Rutgers. ... Indiana stepped up and had over 200 rushing yards and three touchdowns from Tevin Coleman, keeping Ohio State within arm's distance all day. The Hoosiers easily covered the 36.5-point number. Ohio State entered last week's game 6-1 ATS in their previous seven, but they have now failed to cover in back-to-back games for the first time this season.

-- Order was restored by favorites in the Pac-12. Only Arizona covered as an underdog, winning outright at Utah by a 42-10 score. ... Oregon barely covered a 33-point spread, winning 44-10. A scoreless fourth quarter poured cold water on the 'over' (74), which never was even close. ... In the battle of L.A., it was UCLA winning 38-20 against Southern California. The Bruins started the season 1-7 ATS, but they have covered three in a row heading into the season finale against Stanford. ... The Cardinal won the 'Big Game' 38-17 against California, and 'over' (56) bettors were left just one point short. Ouch.

-- ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit and Desmond Howard frankly do not care for FCS vs SEC matchups in late November, and it made for a boring week of games in the league. Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina paid the athletic budgets for five institutions Saturday, and there were no near-upsets, as expected. ... The Missouri-Tennessee game was pretty entertaining. The Tigers pulled out a 29-21 win despite being five-point dogs. Mizzou has won five straight, and covered three in a row heading into their big tilt against Arkansas. The Hogs blasted Ole Miss, and they have posted back-to-back shutouts. Arkansas has covered four in a row, and nine of the past 10 and the under has cashed in three straight.

Mid-Major Report

-- In Conference USA action, North Texas continues their late-season push to respectability, especially at home. They finished the season 4-2 SU/ATS in six home games. ... Old Dominion held off Louisiana Tech in OT, 30-27. It was a shocking setback for the Bulldogs, as they entered on a five-game win streak, and 8-2 ATS in their first 10 games.

-- Everything went according to plan in the Mountain West. Favorites cashed in five of the six games, with only UNLV covering at Hawaii. The Warriors have won back-to-back games for the first time this season. They head to Fresno State for the regular season finale. Hawaii is 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in five games on the mainland this season. ... Colorado State crushed New Mexico 58-20, covering for the third straight game, and for the seventh time in nine games. The 'over' has also cashed in four straight for the Rams.

-- In Sun Belt action, Louisiana-Monroe buried New Mexico State in Las Cruces by a 30-17 count. The under is 7-4 for ULM this season, while the under has hit in three of the past four for the Aggies after the over his in six straight from Sept. 6-Oct. 11. ... It took a while to get acclimated, but Appalachian State finally appears to be comfortable at the FBS level. They won as an eight-point underdog at Louisiana-Lafayette, 35-16. App State has won five in a row, and they're 4-1 ATS during the span.

Bad Beats

-- If you had Florida Atlantic on the moneyline at Middle Tennessee...ouch. FAU +240 led the entire game until the Blue Raiders converted a fourth down for a game-winning touchdown with 19 seconds left in regulation.

-- Brave souls who took the 'under' (68) in the OK State-Baylor game looked to be in good shape after 45 minutes, with Baylor up 35-14. However, the teams combined for 28 points in the fourth, including 21 points in the first 4:16, to turn a winning under ticket into a loser really quickly.

-- Minnesota trailed Nebraska 24-21 heading to the fourth quarter, and the 'over' (53) looked to be in good shape. But the first 11 1/2 minutes of the final stanza was scoreless, and a late Minnesota touchdown closed the scoring just one point short.

-- 'Over' (63) bettors were feeling good about themselves in the Fresno State-Nevada game, with 58 points after three quarters. However, the only scoring in the fourth was a Fresno safety. That's it.

-- In the islands, UNLV-Hawaii combined for 35 points, making an under look like a good possibility. However, the two teams exploded for 37 combined points in the fourth to push the total over 56.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 13
By Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the 13th college football weekend as the season heads to the final two weeks of the regular season. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

Northern Illinois (PK) 21, Ohio 14: This Tuesday night game was tied halfway through the fourth quarter and Ohio out-rushed Northern Illinois in the game, not an easy feat. The Huskies answered a touchdown from the Bobcats with a 70-yard scoring drive, leaving Ohio with six minutes to go, down seven with the spread closing right at even after the Huskies were favored by four on the early opening number. Ohio seemed poised to answer going down the field with a big fourth down conversion and two other first downs, but on what looked like another first down conversion, Landon Smith fumbled, giving Northern Illinois the ball back with less than two minutes to go. Ohio had two timeouts left, but the Huskies converted a big third down play to run out the game.

Toledo (-7) 27, Bowling Green 20: Wednesday night MAC football featured a tight game with Bowling Green tying the score at 20-20 early in the fourth quarter. It took Toledo less than three minutes to answer, taking advantage of a strong kickoff return to push the lead back to seven with about ten minutes to go, sitting even with the closing spread. After matching punts, Bowling Green made good use of its next possession, getting inside the Toledo 30-yard line. Two sacks ended the threat as the Falcons went for it on fourth and long with over three minutes to go in the game. Bowling Green would force Toledo to punt again, but the Falcons wound up pinned on their own three-yard line and ultimately failed again on fourth and long for the their final chance.

San Diego State (-6) 30, Air Force 14: Air Force led 14-13 at the half and heading into the fourth quarter, the Falcons were still within range of the spread down nine after a late third quarter touchdown drive from the Aztecs. Air Force wound up with four turnovers in the game and twice early in the fourth quarter the Falcons were stopped going for it on fourth down. Down nine with fewer than three minutes on the clock, Air Force appeared to have a great shot to add points with even a field goal getting to even with the spread, but a Kale Pearson pass was intercepted and returned 56 yards for a touchdown to seal the game for the home favorite.

South Carolina (-25) 37, South Alabama 12: It was odd to see South Carolina as the team sitting at 5-5 going against 6-4 South Alabama with the Gamecocks needing a win to become bowl eligible. Early on it was a challenge, leading just 10-6 before an interception return for a touchdown put South Carolina up 17-6, but the Jaguars added a field goal to trail by just eight heading into the break. South Carolina managed just two field goals in the third quarter to lead by just 14, well short of the heavy favorite spread, but South Carolina would score two touchdowns in about a two minute span to take a 37-9 lead. A 31-yard South Alabama field goal in the final minutes would land the final score right on the closing number.

Ball State (-18) 45, Eastern Michigan 30: Ball State led 35-3 after a fumble return touchdown in the third quarter, seemingly in a complete control but with three consecutive scores, Eastern Michigan was within 19 and approaching the heavy underdog spread by the start of the fourth quarter. With two short drives, Ball State put the game away with a 45-16 lead with less than 11 minutes remaining, but Eastern Michigan kept playing, completing drives of 75 and 70 yards for two late touchdowns, the second of which spoiled the favorite cover.

Maryland (+6½) 23, Michigan 16: Michigan had a substantial yardage edge against Maryland in a game the Wolverines needed, but the scoring did not match up with the production with the familiar turnover storyline playing a role. Still Michigan led 16-9 and just past the favorite spread heading into the fourth quarter with the defense playing well, but Maryland tied the game early in the final frame. Michigan missed a field goal on its next drive and Maryland responded with another touchdown drive to take the lead with just six minutes to go and that would end up being the final score, leaving Michigan needing to beat Ohio State next week to become eligible for the postseason.

East Carolina (-20) 34, Tulane 6: East Carolina was in control of this game, but the Pirates led by just 14 at the half and they were short of the spread with a 20-3 lead heading into the fourth quarter. A Tulane field goal with 10 minutes to go in the game put the margin at just 14, but a few minutes later a touchdown put East Carolina past the favorite spread for the first time in the game. With less than a minute to go and the game in hand, East Carolina rushed in another touchdown to pad the final margin.

Wisconsin (-8) 26, Iowa 24: The Badgers took a 19-3 lead with just over five minutes to go in the third quarter, but it did not feel like a dominant performance. The game would tighten in a hurry as Iowa scored a touchdown just minutes later to get within eight with a successful two-point conversion. Aided by a critical and quite erroneous pass interference penalty, Iowa scored again early in the fourth quarter, but the attempt to tie with another two-point conversion failed. That allowed Wisconsin to go past the closing spread when the Badgers quickly answered with a 75-yard touchdown drive halfway through the final frame. Iowa would make things interesting with another touchdown drive to get back within two points, good enough to cover, but Wisconsin was able to run out the clock.

Texas Tech (PK) 34, Iowa State 31: After falling behind 14-0, Iowa State scored 24 straight points to lead by 10 well into the third quarter. By the start of the fourth quarter, Texas Tech was back in front by three after an 82-yard pass play. Early in the fourth quarter, the Cyclones took a four-point lead with a quick touchdown drive of only two plays, but then it was nearly 10 minutes of game clock before the next scoring play as Texas Tech failed on a fourth down try and Iowa State missed a field goal. The Red Raiders hit on another big pass play to go back in front with just over four minutes to go. Iowa State would get to the edge of long field goal range on its final possession, but they couldn’t extend the drive as Texas Tech turned in a positive late season performance in an exciting game.

Oregon (-33) 44, Colorado 10: Spreads in Oregon games keep climbing, but the Ducks snuck by another one. Oregon led 30-3 heading into the fourth before adding a touchdown to slip just past the number with less than four minutes to go in the third quarter. Colorado would answer to get back within 27, but Oregon completed the scoring trade to lead 44-10 heading into the fourth. Colorado seems like a good candidate for a backdoor cover, but in three possessions each in the final frame neither team crossed midfield.

Louisville (+2½) 31, Notre Dame 28: The Irish led by three late in the third quarter, but Louisville completed an 81-yard drive late in the third to lead 24-20. With another long scoring drive, the Cardinals started to pull away with a 31-20 lead early in the fourth quarter. Notre Dame quickly answered to get back within three and then the Irish got the big play they needed with a sack pushing Louisville back 14 yards on a key third down play. That made the field goal attempt much tougher and Louisville missed the try. The Irish were down inside the Louisville 10-yard line with under two minutes to play before getting backed up with a sack of their own. Still, the Irish seemed headed for overtime with a 32-yard field goal attempt but that kick also failed as the Cardinals escaped with a big win in South Bend.

North Texas (-2) 17, Florida International 14:North Texas led 14-0 early in this matchup but as they have done all season, Florida International put together points without its offense, scoring on a punt return and an interception return to tie the game just before halftime. With just seconds left in the third quarter, North Texas took a three-point lead with a short field goal. The Panthers had the best scoring chance in the fourth quarter, but it was Florida International giving away the big turnover with an interception in the end zone to end the threat as North Texas wound up with the win and narrow cover.

Arizona State (-14) 52, Washington State 31: This line dropped dramatically before kickoff and early on the underdog certainly looked like the side to be on with a back-and-forth start leaving Washington State up 24-21 at the half. Arizona State took a 28-24 run heading into the fourth and then the Sun Devils scored 24 points consecutively in the fourth quarter to pull away with a 52-24 lead before Washington State added a touchdown in the final minute which was not enough to impact the spread.

UL-Monroe (-6½) 30, New Mexico State 17: New Mexico State trailed by just three with less than two minutes to go in the third quarter before disaster struck the Aggies with a blocked punt returned for a touchdown to put UL-Monroe up by 10. New Mexico State was a home underdog with more than triple the rushing yards of its opponent, but they came up short as Monroe would add a fourth quarter field goal to pull away with a 13-point edge and the Aggies could not get the late spread-stealing touchdown.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 13
By Mike Rose

Week 13 of the 2014 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the rankings and see how they did from an ATS perspective in this go around this past week.

(Results in parentheses represent SU Result-ATS Result)

1) Alabama (W-L vs. Western Carolina 48-14)
There was a point that Bama was only up 17-14 in the second quarter against Western Carolina.

2) Oregon (W-W vs. Colorado 44-10)
Marcus Mariota has probably made himself the Heisman favorite at this point.

3) Florida State (W-L vs. Boston College 20-17)
Is there such a thing as an FSU game which doesn't end in a heart attack anymore?

4) Mississippi State (W-W vs. Vanderbilt 51-0)
The Bulldogs might be best served if Alabama wins next week. If so and they win the Egg Bowl, they should be in the playoff.

5) TCU (Bye)

6) Ohio State (W-L vs. Indiana 42-27)
The Bucks really needed to be more impressive than this to move up in the CFP rankings.

7) Baylor (W-L vs. Oklahoma State 49-28)
The Bears were more impressive than OSU, but can they move up and at least threaten to get into the playoff?

8) Ole Miss (L-L vs. Arkansas 30-0)
Remember when the Rebels were waltzing towards the playoff? They're waltzing towards a lousy bowl bid now.

9) UCLA (W-W vs. USC 38-20)
The Bruins are now one more win away from going to the Pac-12 title game.

10) Georgia (W-W vs. Georgia Southern 55-9)
Nick Chubb posted yet another 100+ yard game this week, albeit against weak competition.

11) Michigan State (W-W vs. Rutgers 45-3)
The Spartans now have two straight great results since choking against Ohio State.

12) Kansas State (W-W vs. West Virginia 26-20)
Kansas State's win spells good news for the rest of the Big XII teams fighting for a spot in the CFP.

13) Arizona State (W-W vs. Washington State 52-31)
The Sun Devils are still alive for the Pac-12 South, but they have to beat Arizona next week.

14) Auburn (W-L vs. Samford 31-7)
Something definitely isn't right with Auburn going into the Iron Bowl.

15) Arizona (W-W vs. Utah 42-10)
The Wildcats are the first to really put the Utes in their place this year.

16) Wisconsin (W-W vs. Iowa 26-24)
Give Melvin Gordon another 200 rushing yards.

17) Utah (L-L vs. Arizona 42-10)
It looks like the magic has run out of the Utes this year.

18) Georgia Tech (Bye)

19) USC (L-L vs. UCLA 38-20)
The Trojans are now staring a 7-5 season and a trip to a third-tier bowl in the face after losing the battle of LA.

20) Missouri (W-W vs. Tennessee 29-21)
The Tigers keep defying the odds, and they are now one win away from a second straight SEC Championship Game appearance.

21) Oklahoma (W-W vs. Kansas 44-7)
One week after Melvin Gordon set the FBS record for the most rushing yards in a game, Samaje Perine killed that mark.

22) Clemson (W-L vs. Georgia State 28-0)
Clemson really hopes that its defense can put up a big fight next week to break the hex against South Carolina.

23) Nebraska (L-L vs. Minnesota 28-24)
This should finally be the year that Bo Pelini is handed his pink slip.

24) Louisville (W-W vs. Notre Dame 31-28)
Reggie Bonnafon is one of the many remarkable freshmen quarterbacks coming up in the ACC.

25) Minnesota (W-W vs. Nebraska 28-24)
Maybe the CFP committee was justified in keeping this team in the Top 25 after all.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ACC Report - Week 14
By Joe Williams

It's the final weekend of the Atlantic Coast Conference schedule, and it's a bit anti-climactic. The ACC Championship Game is already set for Florida State and Georgia Tech. However, there are still a ton of interesting games.

Virginia and Virginia Tech play their rivalry game not only with state bragging rights on the line, but the winner will also become bowl eligible. The Bluegrass State bragging rights are also on the line, and Louisville faces a Kentucky team which has been a little better than usual. Clemson's Dabo Swinney also tries to solve his kryptonite, a.k.a. South Carolina in the Palmetto State battle. The Peach State also has bragging rights on the line. The Yellow Jackets are into the title game, but beating Georgia would be another nice feather in their caps. The Tar Heel State also has a heated contest between rivals, and of course there is Florida-Florida State. The Gators might be down, but wouldn't they love to spoil FSU's possible playoff spot and national title aspirations.


2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 6-5 3-4 7-4 4-6-1
Clemson 8-3 6-2 4-7 4-7
Duke 8-3 4-3 6-4-1 2-8
Florida State 11-0 8-0 3-8 4-7
Georgia Tech 9-2 6-2 7-4 6-5
Louisville 8-3 5-3 6-4 3-6-1
Miami (Fla.) 6-5 3-4 5-6 3-8
North Carolina 6-5 4-3 5-6 5-5
North Carolina State 6-5 2-5 6-5 5-5-1
Pittsburgh 5-6 3-4 4-6-1 5-5-1
Syracuse 3-8 1-6 4-7 2-8-1
Virginia 5-6 3-4 7-3-1 3-8
Virginia Tech 5-6 2-5 4-7 3-7
Wake Forest 3-8 1-6 6-5 3-8


Virginia at Virginia Tech (Fri. - ESPN, 8:00p.m. ET)
This is an interesting game. As mentioned above, the lose goes home with no bragging rights, and the winner not only owns the Commonwealth for a year, but also becomes bowl eligible. The Cavaliers are favored by one point in this one, and the trends are a little mixed in the head-to-head department. UVA is just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this series, but the favorite is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings. And the road team has covered five of the past seven. For Virginia, two out of three ain't bad. The Hokies played perhaps the ugliest game of the season last week at Wake Forest, going scoreless in regulation before falling to Wake 6-3 in double-overtime. Virginia is 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 games, while Virginia Tech has failed to cover in their past five home games. The Gobblers are also 2-11-1 ATS in the past 13 against a team with a losing record. The Hoos aren't much better, going 3-7-1 ATS in their past 11 road games against a team with a losing home record.

Kentucky at Louisville (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Kentucky heads into this rivalry game 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings, although the road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six. The Wildcats seemed to run out of steam a few weeks ago after appearing to have turned a corner. They're just 1-4 ATS in the past five games, and 0-7 ATS in their past seven games in the month of November. Louisville picked up a scintillating win at Notre Dame last week, and they're now 9-4 ATS in their past 13 games. The Cardinals are also 4-0 ATS in their past four against the SEC, but just 3-10 ATS in their past 13 home games against a team with a losing road record. Louisville is favored by 13 points in this one.

South Carolina at Clemson (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)
The Gamecocks have had the number of their rivals from the upstate lately, winning five straight. The last time the Tigers tasted victory against the 'Cocks was a home game back on Nov. 29, 2008. Not only has South Carolina won five straight, but they've covered the past five, and seven of the past eight. The status of QB DeShaun Watson (knee) is in question, and backup QB Cole Stoudt (shoulder) is dealing with a sore shoulder, too. Could Clemson potentially be playing its biggest rivalry game with their third-string quarterback? That might be why the game is off the board at a lot of shops. The game opened with Clemson inexplicably favored by 4 1/2 points.

Georgia Tech at Georgia (SEC Network, 12:00 p.m.)
The Peach State battle has some added excitement with both teams fighting for their 10th win of the season. Georgia Tech is 3-1-1 ATS in their past five trips between the hedges, but they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five meetings overall with the Bulldogs. The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings in this rivalry. Both teams are hot against the number lately, with Ga. Tech going 4-0 ATS in the past four, and 4-1 ATS in the past five games. UGA is 5-1 ATS in the past six, and 4-0 ATS in the past four against a team with a winning record. However, the Dawgs are just 6-13-1 ATS in the past 20 home games against a team with a winning road record. Trends point to this game being a high-scoring affair, too. The over is 8-1 in Georgia Tech's past nine road games, and 7-1 in their past eight non-conference tilts. The over is also 5-0 in their past five road games against a team with a winning home mark. For UGA, the over is 4-1 in their past five non-conference battles, 20-6 in their past 26 games overall and 19-7 in the past 26 at home.

Syracuse at Boston College (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)
Boston College is bowl eligible, but they can improve their standing with another win. The Eagles find themselves favored by 11, and most trends point to a cover. They're 5-0 ATS in their past five home games against a team with a losing home record, and 11-5 ATS in their past 16 home games overall. Syracuse is just 1-5 ATS in their past six in November, although they are 4-1 ATS in their past five road outings. The under might be a better play, as the under is 5-0 in Syracuse's past five, and 6-1-1 in their past eight against a winning team. The under is 5-2 in BC's past seven, although the over is 5-2 in their past seven against a team with a losing overall mark.

North Carolina State at North Carolina (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)
The Tar Heels spoiled the league title hopes of a rival last week, and now hope to damage their other Triangle's rivals bowl prospects. The Wolfpack is bowl eligible, but the Tar Heels could drop them into a lower tier bowl rather than help them advance to a mid-tier game. NC State is 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games against a team with a winning record, and 3-8-1 ATS in their past 12 road games against a team with a winning home mark. UNC is 5-1 ATS in their past six overall, 4-1 ATS in their past five againts a team with a winning mark and 15-7 ATS in their past 22 home outings. The Wolfpack are 5-2 ATS in the past seven head-to-head battles, and the underdog has cashed in 12 of the past 16 in this rivalry.

Florida at Florida State (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
The Gators dealt their rival Georgia a costly loss a few weeks ago, and now they hope to step up for their departing coach and spoil the defending champs' chances of making the four-team playoff and repeating as national champs. Florida is 4-1 ATS in their past five road games, but they're 12-25-1 ATS in their past 38 against a winning team and 3-8 ATS in their past 11 non-conference battles. FSU is 3-8 ATS this season, and 1-5 ATS in their past six at home. The favorite has connected in 13 of the past 16 meetings in this series. The under has hit in eight of the past 10 meetings, and the undeer is 7-2 in the past nine meetings in Tallahassee.

Wake Forest at Duke (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m.)
Wake Forest is horrible, and their offense cannot score. They hit rock bottom last weekend by going scoreless in regulation, but somehow scratched out a 6-3 double-overtime win against Virginia Tech's equally pathetic offense. The Deacs are actually 4-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, and 4-1 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a winning home mark. Despite Duke's disappointing past two games, both home losses, they're still 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine home games and 7-2 ATS in their past nine at home. Still, 18 points seems awfully high given how poorly Duke is playing lately. While the road team is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings, Wake is also just 2-6 ATS in their past eight against Duke. The under looks like the play based on recent trends, with the under 11-4 in Wake's past 15 road games, and 20-7 in their past 27 in the ACC. The under is 9-1 in Duke's past 10 ACC games, and 6-1 in their past seven overall. However, the over is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in this series, and 3-1-1 in the past five meetings at venerable Wallace Wade Stadium.

Pittsburgh at Miami-Florida (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m.)
Miami returns home after a disappointing 30-13 thumping at Virginia. They look to regroup in the sunshine, where they are 4-1 ATS in the past five home games. However, while Miami is also 7-3 ATS in their past 10 home games against a team with a losing road record, they're also just 4-10 ATS in their past 14 ACC battles and 6-13 ATS in their past 19 overall. Pitt is just 1-3-1 ATs in their past five against a team with a winning overall mark, and 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine overall. The favorite has hit in six of the past eight, and the Panthers are just 2-6 ATS in the past eight meetings with the Canes. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four, however. In this series, the under is also 6-2 in the past eight battles.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Joe Nelson

While the NFL has claimed Thanksgiving as its holiday, college football is bringing two intriguing matchups to the table Thursday night as both Texas and Texas A&M continue their Thanksgiving tradition, just not against each other. Here is a look at the Thursday night games in the Big XII and SEC.

Matchup: TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns
Venue: Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET FOX 1
Line: TCU -6, Over/Under 56½
Last Meeting: 2013, Texas (+2½) 30-7 at TCU

TCU appears to be sinking in the national playoff picture as the Horned Frogs may never recover from the narrow 34-30 win over lowly Kansas. With Iowa State up next this is the last opportunity TCU has to impress the committee, getting this national spotlight game Thanksgiving night. Baylor seems poised to pass TCU as the head-to-head meeting may grow in importance and next week the Bears will get to play a highly regarded Kansas State team. The Big XII may get left out entirely with some momentum behind Ohio State’s inclusion and if Mississippi State and Alabama both win convincingly this week it may not matter as the SEC will likely get two teams in.

TCU’s season may ultimately be remembered for what could have been if not for 11 minutes of trouble in Waco in October. TCU led the game at Baylor 58-37 with less than 12 minutes on the clock after Marcus Mallet scored on an interception return touchdown but the Frogs could not get a single stop on defense and the offense failed in several key third down plays, missing the chance to take time off the clock. Ultimately Baylor scored 24 straight points to close the game and that is the difference between TCU being a lock for the national playoff compared with current less promising position.

For Texas a season that started somewhat disastrously has turned to a season of quiet promise with three straight November wins for the Longhorns. After the somewhat contentious removal of Mack Brown as the head coach last season, Charlie Strong’s tenure in Austin featured an embarrassing 41-7 loss at home against BYU in the second game. Texas started the season 2-4 but now at 6-5 the Longhorns have a chance to put a stamp on an encouraging first page in the new era this week.

The turnaround has started with defense as Texas has played very tough defense in seven of the last eight games. Against some very good offensive teams Texas has held up pretty well and the challenge will be servere this week with a TCU squad that is scoring 46 points per game while averaging 542 yards per game. Trevone Boykin may not make it to New York but he is certainly on a short list of the top players in the nation this season with over 3,000 passing yards and over 500 rushing yards, accounting for 31 touchdowns.

Texas is not getting that type of production from the quarterback position as it has been a big adjustment with sophomore Tyrone Swoopes taking over for David Ash. Swoopes has delivered a handful of productive games but he is completing just 58 percent of his passes and he is not the same dynamic two-way threat. John Harris has been one of the top receivers in the Big XII with 59 catches and he should eclipse 1,000 receiving yards this week but the offense for the Longhorns has not been consistent and Texas really only has one quality win, beating West Virginia at home.

TCU is just 6-12-1 ATS vs. Texas since 1980 including just 8-3 ATS since 1988. TCU beat Texas in Austin in 2012 but the Frogs have just two S/U wins in 19 meetings since 1980. TCU is 34-42-1 ATS as a road favorite going back to 1981 including going 1-7 ATS in the last eight instances going back to November of 2011. The win for Texas over West Virginia was the first for the Longhorns as a home underdog S/U or ATS since 1999 as Texas had failed in five straight home underdog situations prior to that game. This is just the seventh time Texas has been a home underdog since 2000 and Texas is also on a 16-5 ATS run in the final home game of the season going back to 1993.

Matchup: LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies
Venue: Kyle Field in College Station, Texas
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: LSU -3 Over/Under 49½
Last Meeting: 2013, at LSU (-5) 34-10

For two programs accustomed to being in the national conversation in recent years this Thanksgiving showdown will leave the loser potentially in a tie for last place in the SEC West if Arkansas beats Missouri. Both teams have matching 7-4 records but with 3-4 records in conference play. Neither team will be in the discussion for a major bowl spot and by the very high standards of both programs, it will be considered a bit of a down season regardless of this week’s result.

There have been major highs and lows for both teams with Texas A&M peaking early with a 5-0 start and the blowout win at South Carolina in the opening week before crashing with three straight lopsided losses including a 59-0 self-destruction in Tuscaloosa. The Aggies did rebound with a big win at Auburn to save some face in what has been a tough second half of the season.

LSU snuck by Wisconsin in the opening week and then started 0-2 in SEC play with a home loss against Mississippi State and an ugly 41-7 loss at Auburn. The young Tigers team did respond with three straight wins in October including giving Mississippi their first loss however. LSU seemed to have Alabama beat before a painful sequence led to an overtime loss and in its last game LSU was shut out against an Arkansas team that had lost 17 straight conference games.

Texas A&M started the season under sophomore quarterback Kenny Hill who posted huge early season numbers and emerged on the Heisman short list. Hill is no longer the starter as he struggled with the decline of the Aggies and was suspended for two weeks with highly touted freshman Kyle Allen taking the job. Allen has had mixed results and an Aggies offense that is not running the ball like it used to has seen a big scoring drop from the past two seasons. The defense for Texas A&M has also struggled in several matchups and the overall figures for the Aggies look much worse if you take away an incredibly weak non-conference slate.

Last season’s LSU offense posted 453 yards per game and nearly 36 points per game but glancing at the Sunday NFL scores and seeing rookies Alfred Blue, Jeremy Hill, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and Zach Mettenberger all in prominent roles shows you how much this team had to rebuild. LSU has been much better on defense than last season with just 16 points per game allowed but the offense is getting very little done consistently in the passing game. Over the past three games LSU has scored a total of just 19 points but the 17-0 loss to Arkansas could be chalked up to a letdown after the demoralizing Alabama game. The team should be ready for this finale Thursday night after a bye week last week.

In the last trip to College Station LSU escaped with a 24-19 win but it was the worst game of the season for Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel as Texas A&M had five turnovers to surrender an early lead. Last season in Baton Rouge LSU crushed Texas A&M 34-10 with nearly double the yardage total as the Aggies were held under 300 yards for their lowest output of the season.

LSU has won and covered in the three recent meetings between these teams going back to the Cotton Bowl after the 2010 season and the Tigers are 8-4-1 ATS vs. Texas A&M since 1986. LSU is 44-28-2 ATS as a road favorite since 1984 including going 17-11-1 ATS since 2005 when Les Miles took over. LSU is 28-15 S/U on the road under Miles, though just 21-20-2 ATS and just 3-7-1 ATS the past three seasons. Texas A&M is 21-12-1 ATS as a home underdog since 1985 including going 5-2 ATS since 2009 in that role though the team is just 0-3 S/U and 1-2 ATS as a home underdog under Kevin Sumlin.

 

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NCAAF Opening Line Report: Big spreads for college football's biggest rivalries
By COLIN KELLY

This week’s college football slate makes a complete 180-degree turn from last week, which was loaded with rather meaningless matchups. Thanksgiving weekend brings a buffet of big contests that will go a long way toward determining which teams make the inaugural four-team playoff.

And of course, the SEC will have the main course, with two key contests, headlined by Alabama playing host to archrival Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The Crimson Tide (10-1 SU, 3-8 ATS) are coming off a 48-14 rout of FCS foe Western Carolina, though they fell well short of covering as massive 50.5-point favorites, leaving them tied with several teams for the second-worst ATS record in the Nation.

Auburn (8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS), which had its playoff hopes sunk in by back-to-back losses to Texas A&M and Georgia, also had a lightweight foe last weekend, dropping Samford 31-7 as an even bigger chalk than ‘Bama – 59.5 points.

“We opened Alabama -9.5 and there hasn’t been too much movement,” Scott Kaminsky , tells Covers. “In a game like this, it doesn’t matter what the records are. Each team wants to go away with a victory. But I don’t think this one goes above -9.5. I’ll take a stab and say it will stay in single digits.”

In last year’s Iron Bowl, Auburn won 34-28 by returning a missed field goal the length of the field for a touchdown on the last play of the game.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (-1) at Mississippi Rebels

Mississippi State has just one loss, and a respectable one at that, falling at Alabama two weekends ago. The Bulldogs (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS) still have a very good chance to reach the four-team playoff and are coming off a 51-0 shellacking of Vanderbilt laying 29.5 points at home.

Meanwhile, Mississippi (8-3, 6-4-1 ATS) can only play spoiler in the annual Egg Bowl. The Rebels were coming off a bye before traveling to Arkansas on Saturday, yet got blasted by the Razorbacks 30-0 as a 3-point fave.

“Mississippi State opened as a 1-point road favorite,” says Kaminsky. “Ole Miss had a horrible game last week. They looked so good to start out but just bit the bullet, and lost three of their last four.”

Michigan Wolverines at Ohio State Buckeyes (-20)

No matter the situation, this game is big every year. But it’s far more important for Ohio State (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS), which has a shot at the playoff. The Buckeyes struggled to put away Indiana on Saturday, winning 42-27 while failing to cash as 36.5-point favorites.

Michigan (5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) is playing out the string under likely-to-be-fired coach Brady Hoke. The Wolverines were 6-point home chalk against Maryland, but lost outright 23-16.

“I can’t see anyway (Michigan) wins this game,” says Kaminsky, who opened Ohio State as a 20-point favorite. “They’re playing a team that is so much better than them. So many times, it’s the last game of the season and last game for the seniors or the coach. But there’s one thing you always have to bring to the table and that’s talent. And (Michigan) doesn’t have a lot of talent. If they cover the spread, they will have done well. Not in their eyes, but they would’ve done well.”

Oregon Ducks (-20) at Oregon State Beavers

A look at the records would have one think that Oregon (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS) should roll, but this rivalry game is often tight. Last year, also in Corvallis, the Ducks held on for a 36-35 win giving 24 points.

Oregon is coming off a 44-10 home win and cover against Colorado laying 32.5 points, while the Beavers (5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS) – coming off an upset of Arizona State – got bounced at Washington 37-13 catching 6.5 points.

“This is the same scenario as the Michigan-Ohio State game. Almost the same spread,” says Kaminsky, who opened Oregon -21 and moved to -20 with early money the underdog. “Oregon just beats up on people and they’ll beat up on Oregon State. The Beavers want to beat Oregon bad, but they just don’t have the talent.”