Tuesday, November 6
Tuesday’s college hoop games— Not a lot of info to go on until teams play some games…….
Michigan State-Kansas split their last four meetings, all on neutral courts, with Jayhawks winning last one, 90-70 in 2nd round of 2017 NCAA’s. Spartans haven’t been to the Sweet 16 the last three years; they’re favored to win the Big 14, with three starters back from LY. Kansas won 95 games the last three years; they’ve got lot of new players, but lot of talent. Last three years, Big X schools are 18-13 vs spread (19-12 SU) when playing a Big 14 opponent.
Duke-Kentucky have met only twice in last decade, splitting the pair of early season games. Duke has five new starters, four of whom are supposed to be freshmen— talented kids, but who the hell knows? Blue Devils missed last three Final Fours. Kentucky took a trip to Bahamas in August, so they had 10 extra practices this summer; Wildcats do have three experienced starters, two of whom start. Last three years, SEC teams are 32-29 vs spread when playing an ACC opponent.
North Carolina is opening the season at Wofford, which is odd; Tar Heels were down 14 at home to Wofford with 13:28 left LY, but rallied to win 79-75, and Terriers shot just 7-22 from the arc. UNC has three starters back; they also got a couple of talented frosh who may be 1-and-done. Wofford has 8 of its top 9 scorers back from LY’s 21-13 team that played in the CIT; they’re a favorite in SoCon this year. Last three years, ACC teams are 19-15-2 vs spread when playing a SoCon squad, 1-2 when the game is on the SoCon team’s court.
Ball State-Indiana State split their last four meetings; Sycamores lost five of last seven trips to Muncie, splitting last four. ISU has had four straight losing seasons, but they add two transfers this year, from Butler/Iowa State, so that should help- they lost four OT games LY. Ball State won 61 games the last three years; they’ve got three starters back from LY. Cardinals shoot the 3’s well but need to be better defensively. Last three years, MVC teams are 13-8 vs spread when playing a MAC opponent.
Temple lost 87-83 at LaSalle LY, just their 2nd loss in last 13 series games; four of last five meetings were decided by 6 or fewer points. Owls have three starters back from LY for coach Dunphy’s last team (he is retiring); their top two scorers from LY are back. LaSalle has a new coach, a Villanova assistant; Explorers have decent guards but are weak up front- the new coach is a good recruiter, but that won’t help this year’s team. Last three years, AAC squads are 12-10-1 vs spread when playing an A-14 team.
Wichita State lost nine players from LY’s 25-8 team; they also lost two assistant coaches in the spring. Shockers are a very young team; it’ll take time for them to gel. Louisiana Tech has four starters back from LY’s 17-16 (7-11 in C-USA) team; Bulldogs they had lot of injuries LY, so lot of young kids got playing time, which should help this year, but they’ve got only one returning senior. Last two years, C-USA teams are 9-4 vs spread when playing an AAC opponent.
Cal State-Fullerton played two Pac-12 teams LY, losing to USC/Cal by 6-42 points; they went on to win Big West tourney and make NCAA’s, but Titans are guard-heavy- they lost their NCAA game to Purdue by 26. Fullerton has four starters back but brought in new guys to help out up front. Arizona State was last D-I team in country to lose LY, then went 8-12 in their last 20 games; ASU lost three starters but bring in talented newcomers. Last three years, Pac-12 teams are 25-24-1 vs spread when playing a Big West squad.
Auburn has couple senior guards who helped Tigers reach NCAA’s LY for first time since ’03; Purifoy is suspended for first nine games of season. Auburn has depth now and much higher expectations this year. South Alabama has a new coach and four starters back from LY; Nicholls State played fast under this coach the last two years- will the Jaguars? USA has a decent roster- they’ve got three transfers sitting out for next year, too. Last three years, SEC teams are 15-9 vs spread when playing a Sun Belt team.
Florida State beat Florida the last four years, beating Gators by 2-5 points in their last two visits here- four of last five series games were decided by 5 or fewer points. Seminoles have three starters back from a 23-12, Elite 8 team; they return 75% of their scoring, 76% of rebounding from LY. Florida made NCAA’s last two years, still has experience; they’ll need to defend better this year. Last three years, SEC teams are 32-29 vs spread when playing an ACC opponent.
San Francisco made 10-22 on arc, shot 55% inside arc and beat Cal-Davis 74-61 at home LY. Dons won 42 games the last two years; they’ve got three starters back from LY’s team that lost the CIT title game. USF is picked #4 in WCC this winter. Cal-Davis has a 5-9 senior PG who led the Aggies to the Big West regular season title. Davis’ backcourt is their strength. Last three years, Big West teams are 30-26 vs spread when playing WCC foes.
New Mexico won 105-89 at Cal-Northridge in a Wooden Classic game two years ago; both teams have new coaches since then. Lobos lost star transfer Lyle to injury; they lost four starters from LY’s 19-15 team that was 12-6 in MW. Jackson is a transfer G from UConn who they need to be good. CSUN won only 36 games the last four years; Gottfried is a good coach, but players win games and the Matadors don’t have enough good ones yet. Last three years, Mountain West teams are 15-12-1 vs spread when facing a Big West team.
Washington hammered Western Kentucky 86-47 in Vegas two years ago. WKU won 27 games LY, lost in NIT semis; they’ve got six players back with decent experience, and Stansbury is recruiting above his grade level. Hilltoppers also have transfers eligible from Auburn/Austin Peay. Washington plays a 2-3 zone like Syracuse which can be tricky to beat early in season; Huskies have their top eight players back from LY- they brought in a freshman, pass-first PG who figures to free up the other guards to score more.
Nevada is ranked in top 10 this year, which adds pressure; Wolf Pack beat two WCC teams LY, winning by 30-13 points. Nevada is 81-29 under Musselman; they’ve got three starters back from LY’s Sweet 16 team, plus talented newcomers. BYU has four starters back from a 24-11 team, but their leading scorer from LY bolted school early. Still, 7 of their top 8 scorers are back from LY. Cougars won 22+ games each of the last five years. Last three years, Mountain West teams are 22-18 vs spread when playing a WCC opponent.
