Tuesday 10/4/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Post your request, Comments or concerns here.
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National League TODAY 19:45
Solihull MvSouthport
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
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RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT SOLIHULL MRECENT FORM
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KEY STAT: Southport have conceded 29 goals in 13 league games this season

EXPERT VERDICT: Solihull have recovered from a terrible spell in late August and early September after five straight league defeats to go four matches unbeaten and the hosts can follow Saturday's victory at Maidstone with a victory against Southport. The visitors have had a tough run of fixtures but have conceded 16 times in six road contests.

RECOMMENDATION: Solihull
1


REFEREE: Thomas Bramall STADIUM:

 

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World Cup Th 6Oct 19:45
AustriavWales
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
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RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN AUSTRIARECENT FORM
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KEY STAT: Wales lost only once in their last qualifying campaign

EXPERT VERDICT: Both sides look stronger in attack than they do in defence and this could be a game full of goals at both ends. After a disappointing Euro 2016 Marcel Koller’s men recorded a 2-1 victory in Georgia and could prove a dangerous opposition for the Welsh, who are still buzzing after their semi-final run at the Euros.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
3


 

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World Cup Th 6Oct 19:45
IrelandvGeorgia
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
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RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN IRELANDRECENT FORM
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KEY STAT: Ireland have won all seven meetings against Georgia since 2002

EXPERT VERDICT: Georgia haven’t been pulling up any trees recently, losing five of their last eight international games, including going down against Austria in their World Cup qualifying opener. The visitors haven’t scored more than once in their last five matches either and Ireland should be home bankers.

RECOMMENDATION: Ireland
3


 

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World Cup Sa 8Oct 19:45
ScotlandvLithuania
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
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RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN SCOTLANDRECENT FORM
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KEY STAT: Germany and England are the only teams Scotland have lost to at home in the last three years

EXPERT VERDICT: Gordon Strachan’s side were aided by Malta having to play the final half an hour with ten men but the 5-1 success was merited and they should have another comfortable night against Lithuania, who can hardly be described as a member of Europe’s elite. They have won just two of their last 17 matches and Scotland should be able to keep a clean sheet against one of the poorest attacks on the continent.

RECOMMENDATION: Scotland to win 2-0
1


 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Mohawk Racetrack

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Post: 8:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$10000 - CLAIMING $15,000 FOR NW $53,000 LIFETIME.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 5 LYONS GEOFFJNR 5/1
# 8 MR IRRESISTIBLE 8/1
# 7 SKY GUY 2/1

LYONS GEOFFJNR is the clear stand out wager in the eyes of the panel of smart guys. The wagering panel knows that speed is King in harness racing. This contender will unlock our way to a nice score. Is a very compelling win contender given the 79 TrackMaster SR from his most recent gathering. This trainer, and the driver Henry, go together like a hand in a glove. Their results together are outstanding. MR IRRESISTIBLE - This horse has a nose for the wire, just look at his better than average win clip. Very likely the class of the field with an average rating of 81. A nice pick. SKY GUY - Overall stats look respectable. Can't throw him out of the picture. Sometimes you just have to go with a feeling, get behind this one's chances.
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Post: 3:46 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 84 - Purse:$4800 - N/W $500 P/S L/5 OR P/S IN 2016 $7500 P/C L/S AE: $12500 CLM W/A AE: NW 6 PM IN 2016 J DEVAUX 5 OVER 8 J TAGGART JR 6 OVER 7
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 4 I FOUND MY BEACH 4/1
# 1 ITSONLYROCKNROLL A 3/1
# 6 POP ICON 9/2

All signs point to I FOUND MY BEACH for the pick. Have a feeling this one might take in this event. Extremely profitable driver/trainer partnership, with a 8 ROI when working their magic together. You have to favor a horse that wins a lot, very attractive win rate. ITSONLYROCKNROLL A - Worth taking a close look at here looking at the numbers in the speed fig department alone. This nice horse has shown us some ability in the past, just look at the 89 average class rating. Should play well in this one. POP ICON - Some trainers just fit better with certain contenders. That seems to be the case right here with Messenger. A respectable play. Enters this race with very good TrackMaster class rankings relative to the bunch - worth a look.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fort Erie

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $10680 Class Rating: 78

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE AUGUST 4 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,750, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (COLTS AND GELDINGS


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 3 BEAVER TRAPPER 8/5

# 5 PLANTINGTHESEED 4/1

# 2 UNBRIDLED MAJESTY 5/2

I've got to go with BEAVER TRAPPER. Is worth looking at and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (73 average) at today's distance and surface lately. This gelding with Pinto in the saddle makes him a contender. Will most likely go to the front end and should never look back. PLANTINGTHESEED - Love when any animal makes a quick major improvement. Ran a very solid last race. UNBRIDLED MAJESTY - Must be considered given the class of races run lately. The speed rating of 51 from his latest contest looks quite good in here.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 74

FOR FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 2 HAZEN'S NOTCH 5/2

# 6 CELTIC SCOUT 7/2

# 5 RAILROAD INDIAN 5/1

HAZEN'S NOTCH is the best wager in this race. His 60 average has this gelding with among the top Equibase speed figs in this contest. Has been running soundly lately and will most likely be on the lead early on. Had one of the best Equibase speed figs of this group of horses in his last race. CELTIC SCOUT - Is a strong contender based on figs posted recently under today's conditions. Had one of the strongest speed figs of this group in his last race. RAILROAD INDIAN - Could beat this group of animals given the 69 speed rating garnered in his last outing. He ought to be given consideration given the solid speed numbers.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mountaineer Park - Race #9 - Post: 9:56pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,200 Class Rating: 59

Rating:

#3 ZEUS'S THUNDER (ML=6/1)
#9 SEA TALES (ML=10/1)
#8 ELITE EYES (ML=8/1)


ZEUS'S THUNDER - Fletcher brings this filly back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his filly is on top of her game. Lagunes rode this horse for the first time in the last race and comes right back this time. Looked very good in last race at Mountaineer Park. A quick turnaround means Fletcher thinks she can do it again. SEA TALES - I really like sprint horses that make a fast turnaround. Possibly a peak effort for this filly today. Been getting closer at the finish with each recent start. ELITE EYES - My experienced judgement tells me to be on the alert for this mount in this affair

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SHOCKDEDUDE (ML=3/1), #5 WHITE LACE LADY (ML=4/1), #1 HAPPYTOWN (ML=5/1),

SHOCKDEDUDE - Just can't play this steed. Didn't show me anything last time around the track or on August 18th. Hasn't finished in the money in any short distance races recently. Doubtful to see her doing it this time either. WHITE LACE LADY - Improbable that the speed rating she registered on September 7th will be good enough in this event. HAPPYTOWN - If you keep betting these sort of 'hanger' types, you're going to be let down regularly. Hasn't hit the board in any short distance events recently. Unlikely to see her doing it this time around either.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #3 ZEUS'S THUNDER on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

3 with [8,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,8,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2 - Post: 5:50pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#7 SHOES FOR JLO (ML=6/1)
#2 NAVIGATORSDAUGHTER (ML=4/1)


SHOES FOR JLO - Have to like the early speed on this one. No one else may even be close. NAVIGATORSDAUGHTER - I like that last contest on Sep 19th at Presque Isle Downs where she finished third.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SPRINKLESMIDDLE EZ (ML=8/5), #6 TRIPPYDOODLE (ML=7/2), #1 THREADBARE ALIBI (ML=8/1),

SPRINKLESMIDDLE EZ - I don't normally play a chalk horse that hasn't been to the track in the last three weeks. TRIPPYDOODLE - You always think this animal has a shot to win, but she falls short frequently. THREADBARE ALIBI - In any event of 6 1/2 furlongs, I like to support a contender that has been sharp in sprint races of late.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#7 SHOES FOR JLO is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass
 
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Mohawk: Tuesday 10/4 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 3/2,3/6,8/2,7,9/2,5,6 = $7.20

EARLY PICK 4: 2,7,9/6/1,2,4/2,6,8,9 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 2,6,8,9/6/1,2,4/1,3,8,10 = $48

MEET STATS: 385 - 1154 / $1990.40 BEST BETS: 64 - 106 / $197.70

SPOT PLAYS: 23 - 106 / $157.90)

Best Bet: QUADRANGLE (8th)

Spot Play: ODDS ON AMETHYST (5th)


Race 1

(3) WORLDCLASS HANOVER takes a massive class drop here. She shouldn't have any trouble with this group. (5) MOONLIGHT COCKTAIL should get a decent trip on or near the lead here and stick around for a slice. (1) CHESTNUT SCHOFIELD didn't have much to offer first up last week but he stands a decent chance of getting a good following trip here and hitting the board. (2) KAMIKAZE LINDY took lots of early tote action last time and raced a little better. He could go better here and hit the ticket having had a race over the track.

Race 2

Interestingly, every horse in this race comes up tagged after racing in conditioned or Grassroots races recently. I will side with (2) A BETTORS RISK, who boasts the best late speed and should benefit from the field being small. (3) IMSPORTY faced the toughest company and his race two back would make him very tough here if he could repeat it. (5) NOTETOSELF HANOVER raced better last time and he could make the ticket at a decent price here. (1) ISITFRIDAYYET has a good win record facing cheaper out of town. He could sneak into the Super here off a following trip.

Race 3

(6) CAMERON HILL has been over her head facing open stakes company recently. She should excel here, but will also likely be odds-on. (8) LADY GREY comes off two solid efforts and offers a decent alternative to the expected big chalk here. (4) JILONA will be a pace threat early and could stick for a smaller share. (1) CRYSTAL GUMDROP has frequent gait issues but if she stays trotting she can take a slice here.

Race 4

(7) SKY GUY set some solid splits and was only overtaken late in the mile last week. He would be tough on a repeat of that effort in this field. (9) MYSTIC ICE is worth a look here dropping back into a claimer off two decent efforts vs. conditioned foes. (2) THINK AGAIN is 1-48 lifetime but getting major post relief in his second start in a claimer should move him up considerably. (1) BLUE LINE is a good one to use on the bottom of vertical bets here.

Race 5

(6) ODDS ON AMETHYST went a huge trip last week on the rim to win in excellent time. He could step up and beat these if he has a similar effort to offer. (2) P C DREAM TICKET races well for driver Henry and he will get a winning trip soon. (5) SHOOT THE THRILL steps up off the claim when he won easily. He could move up for Auciello here. (4) ZEUS LIGHTNING raced better in this class last time, but he is rarely a win threat the last couple of years; minor share predicted.

Race 6

(2) SPORTS COWBOY was nailed late last time by a rival that tripped out most of the way and got clear sailing around the last turn. He looks good to graduate here. (1) D M REACHER should go better here starting from the inside. He's the main threat to the choice. (4) SHADOWFALL could show sharp improvement here leaving from a better post; consider for Pick 4 tickets. (6) SOUTHWIND SAVAGE will likely take another slice here without threatening for the win.

Race 7

(8) PYLATER will likely switch to a closing style here and with a ton of early speed signed on he could roll right by in the lane. (9) LITTLE TURK is another that should be winding up from the backfield and passing horses in the stretch. (2) NICHOLAS RYAN could get a similar dreamy trip as he did two starts back; using. (6) SCOTTY MACH N is another that can pass horses late. I'll toss him on my Pick 4 tickets.

Race 8

(6) QUADRANGLE was a sharp two-move winner last week. He is a big threat to double up here vs. similar. (1) RADICAL ROAD has faced better than most of these recently and has fared okay. He looks next best on paper but he would have to find at least one second to threaten the choice. (3) VESUVIO BI - a $25K Harrisburg purchase - likely has more speed to offer than shown in his two qualifiers. (5) BLAMEITONTHEWHISKY hinted at ability for the first time in his final 1/4 last week. He could crash the exotics at a price here.

Race 9

(4) JETPEDIA got a clean line chasing a strong winner last time. He could get more aggressive early off that effort; top call. (2) STAN THE MAN drops to the bottom conditioned level, picks up Filion and he should fit this class well. (1) SUMMIT CITY NATE wasn't far behind the choice and now he gets class relief too; using. (8) MEADOWVIEW VICKY has hit the board close to 60% of the time this year; consider for the exotics at a price.

Race 10

(1) SUNNY BEACH DAY get post and class relief and he should get put into action earlier this time. (3) SPORTS LIGHTNING made a big move and almost held on last time. He should be right there again vs. this group. (10) CS EYE may get asked by Henry to clear right away and if he succeeds, he could take these all the way. (8) DALTON DID IT gets Filion here off the claim. First time Filion isn't the worst angle to play at this track. (2) YORK SEELSTER is likely to take a covered trip here and he could better this prediction with some racing luck.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Tuesday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Finger Lakes (3rd) Cooper's Keeper, 7-2
(4th) All American Man, 7-2


Fort Erie (1st) U S Fever, 3-1
(6th) Spntaneity, 8-1


Indiana Grand (6th) Moon Gun, 6-1
(8th) Honey's Sox Appeal, 7-2


Mountaineer (1st) Go Get'm Lizzie, 10-1
(5th) Lightly Dancing, 6-1


Parx Racing (1st) Horatio, 6-1
(7th) Seventy Niner, 8-1


Presque Isle Downs (5th) Ulations, 3-1
(9th) Crafty Peace, 8-1
 
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Yonkers: Tuesday 10/4 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF

MEET STATS: 243 - 1015 / $1,574.00

BEST BETS: 30 - 96 / $144.40

Best Bet: THE ROYAL HARRY (11th)

Spot Play: WARRAWEE ONYX (4th)


Race 1

(1) ILIKETHEMTRASHY showed good signs of life last out and now this gelding moves to the fence; primed for his first score of the year. (5) BETTORSLUCKYSTREAK leaves his Tioga headquarters and could find the half-mile oval to his liking; maybe. (3) IM SUPERSONIC A Gelding was sharp in his Pocono finale; not out of this.

Race 2

(2) CIS BUCKEYE raced evenly for third money last time around. Trotting gelding appears to be heading in the right direction and with a well judged drive he can get the job done. (6) PARIS PRINCESS N came first up at the 3/4 pole but could not get to the top two in her latest; threat at her best. (3) FOX VALLEY STEFFEN took the pocket route last out on his way to glory; must be considered.

Race 3

(2) SHOMEYOURGUNS is clearly better than his last flop and this gelding has fine speed and good to see Bartlett with the drive; gets the call. (3) CINNABAR HALL leaves the 8-hole for a cozy post; contender. (6) CELEBRITY BLUECHIP put in a sharp qualifier at Monticello last out and gelding fits with these; watch out.

Race 4

(1) WARRAWEE ONYX Gelding has done quite well in his last three outings and now he moves to the fence; can boss these at his best. (6) MOVEMENT has wheeled off three straight victories; post hurts but she is very capable for the four-peat. (3) KEYSTONE SAPPHIRE Mare is knocking at the door based on her last two starts; beware.

Race 5

(5) MUSCLES ON FIRE did not race badly in his last try so with that said this sophomore trotter can put his best foot forward with a fine-timed drive from MacDonald. (3) DRAZZMATAZZ gets serious class relief and this should help her cause today; we shall see. (1) PINA COLADA AS was on the engine most of the way but she was caught in deep stretch by Do The Deal recently.

Race 6

(2) BY A TIME was very sharp last out missing glory by a nose. Gelding now moves his trade to Yonkers and the 2-hole should fit him well; the pick. (3) HEEZ ORL BLACK N moves down the ladder, gets post relief and Brennan is back in the bike; main danger. (1) COLONIAL ROAD should do much better from the fence so don't overlook.

Race 7

(2) WILD SMILE is on the dropdown seeking to return to the winner's circle and the good news is Brennan keeps the faith; big threat. (6) LUCK O THE IRISH was very game against better last time out but will try to move forward from door number six; possible. (1) KARETS has put in two good starts upstate and must be considered from the rail.

Race 8

(4) MASTER CLASS Gelding makes his return to the NW ranks where he got the job done at Pocono on July 26. Has the tactical speed to pick them up and lay them down for all the glory. (3) RIDGEWAY SPRINGS will need a better trip than in his latest to contend in here; capable. (1) PROMISE DELIVERED was quite good for fourth money at the Delaware fair last time out and is now back at Yonkers when he greeted the cameraman for pictures two trips ago; not out of this.

Race 9

(1) ONTHEROAD DE VIE Three good efforts in a row; now the gelding draws the rail and gets the services of Bartlett; the pick. (3) DAZZLING DOLLARS Qualifier was good at Philly last out and this seems to be a better spot for her to make some noise. (2) BAHAMA MAMA AS did flash speed in her last start and could have a say in the outcome.

Race 10

(2) MUSCLE DEFINED Trotting gelding is very consistent; fit and ready to take these to task for all the cash. (3) PARTY ON THE RIVER took charge turning for home but did not have enough gas in the tank and had to settle for the place spot in his last trip to the post; main danger. (1) MARTY DE VIE has good speed and the rail; watch out.

Race 11

Trainer Ake Svanstedt pushes the down button on (8) THE ROYAL HARRY and this trotter has been to the winner's circle 5 of 12 trips this year; capable of being the boss over these despite the move to the 8-hole. (4) CAPT SERIOUS came up the cones to grab the victory in his last start and has every right to repeat; maybe. (3) MADMAN HALL has put in two good seconds in a row and the gelding figures to be in the hunt.

Race 12

(5) BITTERSWEET CHAMP was an easy winner at this level last week and this 8-year-old gelding has every right to keep on his winning ways against these. (1) ARTSMAH gets class relief and moves to the rail; dangerous. (2) BULLVILLE KYLE will need a better trip than in his latest to make an impact; possible.
 
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AL Wild Card - O's at Jays

AL Wildcard Game Betting Preview (TBS, 8:05 p.m. ET)
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Tuesday, Oct. 4 from Rogers Centre

Odds: Baltimore (+130), Toronto (-150); Total 8.5

After about 24 hours of deliberations from both teams, we've finally got our AL Wildcard matchup set as the Baltimore Orioles will send out starter Chris Tillman to face the Blue Jays and their Opening Day starter Marcus Stroman.

These two teams have seen a lot of one another this year being division rivals, but even more so during the month of September when both sides were battling for the right to play October baseball. They actually just finished a three-game set in Toronto last week and it was the Orioles who won two of three.

2016 Head-to-Head Matchups (Toronto 10-9, Under 11-8)

Toronto vs. Baltimore (Rogers Centre)
Sept. 29 - Orioles 4 Blue Jays 0 Under 8.5
Sept. 28 - Orioles 3 Blue Jays 2 Under 9
Sept. 27 - Orioles 1 Blue Jays 5 Under 8.5

July 31 - Orioles 6 Blue Jays 2 Under 9
July 30 - Orioles 1 Blue Jays 9 Over 9
July 29 - Orioles 5 Blue Jays 6 Over 9

June 12 - Orioles 9 Blue Jays 10 Over 9
June 11 - Orioles 6 Blue Jays 11 Over 9
June 10 - Orioles 3 Blue Jays 4 Under 8.5
June 9 - Orioles 6 Blue Jays 5 Over9

Baltimore vs. Toronto (Camden Yards)
Aug. 31 - Blue Jays 5 Orioles 3 Under 9.5
Aug. 30 - Blue Jays 3 Orioles 5 Under 10
Aug. 29 - Blue Jays 5 Orioles 1 Under 10.5

June 19 - Blue Jays 6 Orioles 11 Over 9
June 18 - Blue Jays 2 Orioles 4 Under 10
June 17 - Blue Jays 13 Orioles 3 Over 9

Apr. 21 - Blue Jays 2 Orioles 3 Under 8.5
Apr. 20 - Blue Jays 3 Orioles 4 Under 8.5
Apr. 19 - Blue Jays 4 Orioles 3 Under 9

Baltimore's two wins in that series came by scores of 3-2 and 4-0 and they are somewhat siginficant here because of who took the hill in those games. The 3-2 win was a Chris Tillman's last start of the year and although he would have liked to do a little better (6 hits, 3 walks, 2 runs and 2 strikeouts in 5.2 innings pitched), he did more than enough to keep his team in the game as the bats eventually broke out late for Baltimore.

The 4-0 win by the O's came when they were up against Marcus Stroman in his last start of the year and they tagged him for 9 hits and all 4 runs during his seven innings pitched. Stroman has lost his last three starts against Baltimore (all this year) and many of them haven't been pretty.

In those three outings, Stroman has allowed 27 hits and 15 runs in just 16 innings pitched, which makes the call to put him on the mound for this Wildcard game one that Toronto fans and media have already begun debating about.

Manager John Gibbons is a very loyal guy though and he wants to go with the guy he's rode with the past year and a half (Stroman), over someone like Francisco Liriano who's only been in Toronto a few months.

Liriano had better numbers down the stretch, and Baltimore does struggle vs lefties, so those that prefer a more numbers based approach to these things would have preferred to see Liriano get the nod.

However, he will be available from the bullpen should Stroman get into some early trouble and that in itself could help the Jays stay in this one late and ultimately pull through.

With all the intrigue surrounding the starting pitching selections, what may be lost on bettors is the fact that despite these two teams being known for mashing home runs and putting up crooked numbers, the last seven meetings between these two division rivals have all cashed 'under' tickets.

Baltimore led the league in HR's with 253 and Toronto was 4th with 221, so to see so many games in a row stay under the number is a bit surprising. But all of those low-scoring games during a stressful final month of the season for both sides as they were battling just to get into the playoffs and I'm not so sure we see that streak stay in tact here.

With the Wildcard game being a one-game winner take all situation, these two teams are going to have the mindset that they've got to stay true to their identity if they want to advance. Although the Jays have been a much better pitching team this year then they were in 2015, they are still a team constructed to win with offense and hitting HR's just like Baltimore is.

One swing of the bat by either side could turn this Wildcard game in that team's favor – which makes picking a winner tough – but thanks to a run of 'unders' by these squads and some questionable pitching decisions about who will start does give us some value on the high side of this total.

Neither starter has been historically great against their opponent since entering the majors, and with the pressure ramped up extremely high here, I doubt either one of them will drastically turn that around. Six of Tillman's past 10 starts vs. Toronto have cashed 'over' tickets, while half of Stroman's career starts (3 of 6) have gone over the number as well.

Combining those two results for games played in Toronto and you've got a 4-3 O/U result.

That's not the biggest edge by any means, but as the old saying goes, “If you're going to go down, go down swinging” and I expect the eventual loser of this game to do exactly that.

Best Bet: Take Over 8.5 runs

MLB Wild Card History

Betting Trends:

Road Teams have gone 6-2
Favorites have gone 5-3
The 'over/under' has gone 4-4

2015 Wild Card Results
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Houston (-110) at N.Y. Yankees 3-0 Favorite Under (7)
NL Chicago (-125) at Pittsburgh 4-0 Favorite Under (5.5)

2014 Wild Card Results
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Oakland at Kansas City (+100) 9-8 (12) Underdog Over (6.5)
NL San Francisco (-110) at Pittsburgh 8-0 Favorite Over (6.5)

2013 Wild Card Results
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Tampa Bay (-110) at Cleveland 6-2 Favorite Over (6.5)
NL Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-145) 4-0 Favorite Under (7)

2012 Wild Card Results
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Baltimore (+210) at Texas 5-2 Underdog Under 9
NL St. Louis (+155) at Atlanta 6-3 Underdog Over 6.5
 
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American League Wild Card playoff preview and odds: Orioles at Blue Jays

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (A: +135, H: -155, Total: 8.5)

The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles did what they needed to do on the last weekend of the regular season and earned the two American League wild card spots with identical 89-73 records. The Blue Jays edged the Orioles 10-9 in the season series, earning the right to host the one-game playoff Tuesday to determine which team advances to the AL Division Series to face the top-seeded Texas Rangers.

Baltimore should have plenty of confidence after finishing the season winning seven of its last nine games with a series win in Toronto last week that included a 3-2 triumph Wednesday in which Hyun Soo Kim belted a pinch-hit, two-run blast off Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna in the ninth inning. The Orioles paced the majors with 253 home runs and Mark Trumbo led all players with 47 blasts, though only one of those came in 75 at-bats against Toronto. The Blue Jays took two of three from the Boston Red Sox to finish the regular season, holding off hard charges from the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners in the wild card race, but have some concerns at the back of the bullpen with Jason Grilli and Osuna. Grilli, who works the eighth inning, allowed a total of six runs on seven hits - three home runs - in 1 2/3 innings over his last three appearances while Osuna had a string of three straight blown saves come to an end Sunday.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TBS, Sportsnet (Toronto)

INJURY REPORT:

Orioles - RP J. Aquino (Out Indefinitely, illness), CF J. Rickard (60-Day DL, thumb), 2B S. Pearce (Out For Season, elbow), RP C. Lee (60-Day DL, shoulder).

Blue Jays - RP J. Benoit (Out Indefinitely, calf), RP G. Floyd (Out For Season, shoulder).

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 70's at game-time in Toronto. Last year in the post season the league forced the Jays to keep the roof closed and you can assume the situation will be the same on Tuesday night.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Chris Tillman (16-6, 3.77 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RH Marcus Stroman (9-10, 4.37)

Tillman is the nominal ace of the Baltimore staff but is winless in his last three starts while failing to complete six innings in each of those outings. The California native could not get out of the second frame against Boston on Sept. 22 but was better at Toronto on Wednesday, when he allowed two runs (one earned) and six hits and three walks in 5 2/3 innings. Tillman is 5-10 with a 5.44 ERA in 24 career starts against the Blue Jays.

Toronto burned its top two starters in ace Aaron Sanchez and right-hander Marco Estrada over the weekend at Boston in order to clinch and instead turns to Marcus Stroman. The Duke product went 1-0 with a 4.19 ERA in the playoffs last season and finished the 2016 campaign by allowing three or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts. The outlier in that bunch came Thursday against Baltimore, when he was reached for four runs on nine hits and two walks in seven innings.

TRENDS:

* Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
* Orioles are 8-0 in Tillman's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
* Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
* Blue Jays are 1-7 in Stroman's last 8 starts vs. American League East.
* Under is 7-0 in Orioles last 7 playoff road games.
* Under is 7-1 in Tillman's last 8 road starts.
* Under is 6-0 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
* Under is 5-0 in Stroman's last 5 starts overall.
* Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is heavily on Marcus Stroman and the Jays with 63 percent of the wagers on the home team. Under 8.5 is picking up 55 percent of the total plays.
 
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Preview: Orioles (89-73) at Blue Jays (89-73)

Game: 1
Venue: Rogers Centre
Date: October 04, 2016 8:08 PM EDT

TORONTO -- The Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays are familiar foes.

As American League East rivals, they played 19 times this season, with the Blue Jays winning 10 of them.

The slim advantage is the reason the American League wild-card game is being played Tuesday at Rogers Centre after Toronto and Baltimore finished in a tie in the standings at 89-73.

"We know everything about them, they know everything about us," Blue Jays manager John Gibbons said. "You're playing a team from your division, there's no secrets. It really comes down to who executes better, or who gets the big hit or whatnot."

The teams met just last week at Rogers Centre with the Orioles winning two of the three games to force a tie for the first wild-card spot. The tie could not be resolved on the weekend as Baltimore won two of three against the Yankees in New York while the Blue Jays won two of three from the Red Sox in Boston.

Chris Tillman (16-6, 3.77 ERA) will start for Baltimore against Toronto's Marcus Stroman (9-10, 4.37 ERA) in a battle of right-handers.

"We had probably three options," Orioles manager Buck Showalter said, "and Chris was one of those good options."

Showalter said that in a one-game playoff, the other candidates to start also could play a big role in the game as relievers.

"These games usually have a lot go on in them," Showalter said. "So everybody gets a chance to play a big part in it if it's a competitive game."

Stroman has not won since Aug. 14. He took the loss against the Orioles on Thursday when he allowed four runs, nine hits and two walks while striking out three in seven-plus innings.

Despite going 0-5 in six September starts, Stroman had a respectable 3.41 ERA in those outings.

Stroman was chosen over left-hander Francisco Liriano, who struck out 10 in 6 1/3 scoreless innings Wednesday in a no-decision against Tillman.

"It wasn't easy," Gibbons said. "I think Stro's the perfect guy. Big game. We've seen him do it before. He did that a couple of times for us last year. He'll throw strikes."

Liriano will be available from the bullpen, as will right-hander Marco Estrada.

Tillman went 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA in four starts against Toronto this year, posting a 2.38 ERA in two starts at Rogers Centre. Last Wednesday, he gave up two runs (one earned) on six hits in 5 2/3 innings during a no-decision. He walked three and struck out two.

"I know what they're going to do, they knew what I'm going to do," Tillman said. "The same goes the other way with Stro. We've seen him plenty. He's seen us plenty. So I don't think there are any secrets here. I think it'll be the same kind of game that you always see."

Right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez, who defeated the Blue Jays on Thursday, and righty Dylan Bundy were the two other candidates to start and will be available from the bullpen.

Jimenez, who has a 2.45 ERA in his past seven starts, pitched 6 2/3 scoreless innings Thursday in Toronto.

In 24 career starts against the Blue Jays, Tillman is 5-10 with a 5.44 ERA, and he is 2-6 with a 7.01 ERA in 13 starts in Toronto. Last season, Tillman was 0-4 with a 11.72 ERA in four starts vs. the Jays.

Stroman is 2-3 with a 5.07 ERA in seven career games (six starts) against the Orioles. He is 1-2 with a 7.04 ERA in three starts against Baltimore this season.

"There are no pitches you can take off," Stroman said of the Orioles' lineup. "Each pitch you have has to be executed. You make a mistake, and they make you pay. So that's the mentality going into it."

Stroman was 1-3 with a 7.76 ERA in five starts in June, then made adjustments.

"I definitely had an up-and-down year and battled a lot of adversity," Stroman said. "I think I've done a pretty decent job at making adjustments throughout the year that were key for me and able to pay off down the stretch. I'm at a point now where I feel great, mechanics feel great, body feels great. I'm actually feeling at my strongest now. So I'm excited."

The Blue Jays had the scoring advantage over the Orioles head-to-head this season, 97-81, and they went 6-4 vs. Baltimore at home. Toronto also had a 29-28 edge in home runs.

The winner goes to Texas to play the AL West champion Rangers in a best-of-five Division Series beginning Thursday.

The Blue Jays won their two regular-season games in October after going 11-16 in September. They have averaged an AL-worst 3.69 runs per game in their 29 games in September-October.

Because both teams did not clinch their wild-card spots until the final game of the season, the term "battle-tested" is being uttered by each side.

"It wasn't easy, but you know, maybe this is a better way to head into the playoffs -- battle-tested," Gibbons said.

Orioles catcher Matt Wieters said the same about his own team: "This team is battle-tested. We're ready for whatever gets thrown at us."
 
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Wild-Card Round MLB Betting Matchups & Odds with Expert Predictions
by Alan Matthews

Want more proof that Major League Baseball is a "what have you done for me lately" sport when it comes to managers? Interesting story came out over the weekend that if the Mets had lost their game on Aug. 13 to the San Diego Padres that Manager Terry Collins would have been fired right then despite leading the team to the pennant last year. The Mets entered that Aug. 13 game on a four-game losing streak and had slipped one game below .500. But they overcame a blown save from Jeurys Familia with two outs in the ninth to win in 11 innings. Exactly one week later, the Mets won a game in San Francisco to end a three-game losing streak and they have the best record in baseball since. But I will be curious if Collins is in trouble should the Mets lose in the wild-card game on Wednesday.


Orioles at Blue Jays (-150, 8.5)

This game is Tuesday with the winner getting the Texas Rangers in the AL Division Series. Both teams had to wait until Sunday to learn their fate. The Jays got in as the top wild-card team with a 2-1 win in Boston, while Baltimore beat the Yankees 5-2 behind a pair of two-run homers from catcher Matt Wieters. This could be his final game in an Orioles uniform as Wieters is set for free agency and is not likely to re-sign in Baltimore. He has been linked to the Braves as Wieters played his college ball at Georgia Tech and is from that area of the country. Could also be the final games in Blue Jays uniforms for sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion as both are free agents and there's no way the team will sign both. I'd be surprised if either returns.

As of this writing, I have to speculate on the starting pitchers in the game as neither manager has said yet, but the line shouldn't change much as the Jays will be favored. It will either be Chris Tillman or Ubaldo Jimenez for the Orioles. Tillman (16-6, 3.77) last took the mound Wednesday in Toronto and gave up two runs (one earned) and six hits over 5.2 innings in a no-decision. Tillman went 13-1 over 17 starts from April 27 to July 21 but has struggled a bit to close the season. Overall, Tillman is 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA in four starts this year vs. the Jays and 8-3 with a 2.97 ERA on the road. Bautista is 12-for-25 career off him with three homers and 11 strikeouts. Encarnacion hits .293 against Tillman with three homers in 58 at-bats. Kevin Pillar is 8-for-23 off him with three dingers. Michael Saunders is 6-for-21 with two homers. Jimenez (8-12, 5.44) was maybe the worst starter in baseball in the first half of the season but has a 2.82 ERA after the break. He's 1-1 with a 6.43 ERA in 21 innings vs. the Jays this year.

Toronto will go with either Marcus Stroman or lefty Francisco Liriano. Stroman (9-10, 4.37) allowed four runs and nine hits over seven innings in a loss to the Orioles in his final regular-season start on Sept. 29. In four starts against Baltimore this year, he was 1-2 with an ugly 7.04 ERA. Stroman has pitched well since the beginning of August, posting a 3.28 ERA in his last 11 starts. Liriano (8-13, 4.69) was great in his final start, shutting out the Orioles on six hits with 10 strikeouts over 6.1 innings on Sept. 28. Since joining the Blue Jays at the trade deadline from Pittsburgh, he has a 2.66 ERA in eight starts and he has allowed just four earned runs in his last four starts. Liriano pitched great in the 2013 wild-card game for the Pirates in beating Cincinnati.

Key trends: The Orioles are 0-4 in their past four playoff games. The "over/under" has gone under in the past seven meetings. The under is 6-0 in Toronto's past six vs. the AL East.

Early lean: I think it will be Tillman vs. Stroman. The Jays won the season series 10-9 and hit 29 homers against the Orioles. I'll take them here. Go under.


Giants at Mets (-108, 6)

Game is Wednesday and the winner takes on the Chicago Cubs in the NLDS. I guarantee you that the Cubs are privately thrilled that each team's ace will go in this matchup and thus would likely only be available once in the NLDS. San Francisco clinched the second NL wild-card spot with Sunday's 7-1 home victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Of course the Giants have won the World Series each even-numbered year this decade.

This is probably the best wild-card game pitching matchup ever. It's lefty Madison Bumgarner (15-9, 2.74), the 2014 World Series MVP, for the Giants. He's pretty amazing in his postseason career, going 7-3 with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP with just 63 hits allowed in 88.1 innings. Bumgarner won his final start of the regular season, giving up three runs and eight hits over 7.1 innings on Friday against the Dodgers. He finished second in the NL in innings pitched (226.2) and complete games (four), third in strikeouts (251), fourth in ERA and WHIP (1.02). Bumgarner faced the Mets twice during the season. He won at home on Aug. 18, giving up four runs and six hits over five innings with six strikeouts. On May 1 at Citi Field, Bumgarner also won by throwing six shutout innings with seven strikeouts. Yoenis Cespedes is 3-for-10 career off him with three strikeouts. This could be Cespedes' final game as a Met as he is expected to opt out of his contract and become a free agent. Jay Bruce is 3-for-21 off Bumgarner with a homer and four RBIs. Kelly Johnson is 7-for-20.

It's Noah Syndergaard (14-9, 2.60) for New York. He finished third in the NL in ERA and fourth in strikeouts (218). Syndergaard most recently pitched last Tuesday at the Marlins and allowed a run and five hits over six innings with eight strikeouts. He was lined up to start Sunday if needed but the Mets had nothing to play for then. He pitched in San Francisco on Aug. 21 and dominated with eight shutout innings and 11 strikeouts in a victory. Syndergaard lost at home to the Giants on May 1 (5.2 IP, 4 ER). Hunter Pence is 1-for-5 off him with a homer. Buster Posey is 3-for-6. Brandon Belt is 0-for-6 with three strikeouts. The Giants are likely to try and run on Syndergaard when possible. Would-be base stealers were successful on 48 of 57 steal attempts against him this year. That's the most successful steals against a pitcher since Hideo Nomo allowed 52 for the Boston Red Sox in 2001.

Key trends: The Giants are 1-4 in Bumgarner's past five road starts vs. teams with a winning record. The Mets are 4-1 in Syndergaard's past five on seven or more days of rest. The Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarner's past four at the Mets. The under is 7-0 in Syndergaard's past seven vs. teams with a winning record.

Early lean: The Mets won the season series 4-3 -- that's why they are hosting this game -- and I like them here as hard as it is to go against Bumgarner. Go under.
 
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MLB

Tuesday’s game- AL Wild Card

Orioles @ Blue Jays
Tillman is 1-1, 4.26 in four starts since coming off the DL (under 4-0). Orioles won six of his last seven road starts. He is 1-0, 4.03 in four starts against the Jays this year. Stroman is 0-5, 3.65 in his last six starts; his last five starts stayed under the total. He was 1-2, 7.04 in four starts vs Baltimore this year. Toronto won five of his last seven home starts.

Toronto is 10-9 vs Baltimore this year, with average of 9.4 runs/game. Jays are 36-53 in one-run games last two years; they went 6-4 in last ten games overall, losing two of three here to Orioles last week. Baltimore won seven of its last nine games.

Gibbons is in playoffs for second year in row, after not making it in first seven years as Toronto skipper; he was 5-6 in playoffs LY, Jays’ first in playoffs since 1993. Orioles are in playoffs for third time in last five years; Showalter is 9-13 in playoff games.


NL Wild Card game is Wednesday.

Giants @ Mets
Bumgarner is 1-1, 3.54 in his last three starts; seven of his last ten starts went over total. SF is 9-8 in his road starts, 3-1 in his last four. He is 2-0, 3.27 against the Mets this year. Syndergaard is 4-2, 2.06 in his last seven starts; three of his last four went over. Mets lost four of his last six home starts. He is 1-1, 2.63 against the Giants this year.

Giants are 3-4 vs New York this year, with 10.6 runs/game scored. SF won its last four games to make playoffs after a dismal second half of season- they had best record in MLB at All-Star break. Mets are only Wild Card that had couple days to enjoy it and set up starter for this round. NY is 7-3 in last 10 games, but played also-rans the last two weeks. Last time they played a good team was Washington on September 14.

Giants won World Series is 2010, ’12, ’14; Bochy is 42-30 in postseason games as a manager. Collins made playoffs LY for first time in 11 years as a skipper (8-6); now he is in postseason for second straight year.
 
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Tuesday’s six-pack

Odds to win the World Series:

7-4– Chicago Cubs

5-1– Texas Rangers

6-1– Boston Red Sox

7-1– Los Angeles Dodgers/Washington Nationals

14-1– Cleveland Indians, Toronto Blue Jays

20-1– New York Mets

25-1– Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants
 

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