MLB Betting Picks & Tips
The MLB playoffs roll right along today with both series in action. The Yankees have a chance to even up their best-of-seven ALCS against the Astros and the Dodgers have the chance to take a commanding lead in their best-of-seven NLCS with the Cubs. At time of writing, no line is out for the Astros vs. Yankees game after last night’s resounding win for the home team.
Here are my thoughts and some picks for the two games:
Houston at New York (-145) Total (8.5)
I can already tell you that this will be the toughest handicap of the series. Lance McCullers Jr. gets the start for the Astros and Sonny Gray will go for the Yankees. McCullers has not started yet this postseason and was limited as a starter throughout much of the second half due to injuries. Gray has not pitched since Game 1 of the ALDS and he did not pitch particularly well in that outing. I won’t call these guys high-variance starters because I don’t think that the chances of them both pitching very well are high, but the chances of neither guy lasting that long seem to be relatively high.
McCullers has an electric arm, but, like most stuff guys, injuries are a problem. He was limited to 118.2 innings of work this season after throwing just 81 innings last season. He posted a 4.25 ERA with a 3.10 FIP and a 3.17 xFIP. His 67.6 percent LOB% was the culprit in regards to his ERA being a full run higher than his FIP and xFIP. He also had a .330 BABIP against.
McCullers has swing-and-miss upside. When the Yankees don’t strike out a ton, they have been extremely effective in these playoffs. When they do strike out a lot, their offense has not been able to string together enough runs or pick out enough mistakes. It sounds obvious, but the Yankees struck out 10 times against Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander in the first two games of this series. They struck out a ton in Game 1, Game 3, and Game 5 of the ALDS and only scored six runs over those three games.
Before we get all excited about the Yankees’ offensive breakout in Game 3, let’s look at how the inning went for Charlie Morton in the second:
Starlin Castro single 57.7 mph exit velo; 10% hit probability
Aaron Hicks single 73.8 mph exit velo; 70% hit probability
Todd Frazier HR 100.5 mph exit velo; 55% hit probability
And Charlie Morton in the fourth:
Greg Bird double 78.3 mph exit velo; 4% hit probability (not a typo)
Chase Headley single 88.4 mph exit velo; 12% hit probability
When the night was all said and done, the Yankees only barreled one ball, which was the Aaron Judge nail in the coffin for the night. They had three hits on batted balls that had a hit probability below 15 percent. Not all offensive performances are created equal. This speaks to the volatility of batted balls.
This isn’t a knock on New York’s offense, which is great. It is, however a cautionary tale to get too excited about one game in which variance played a huge part in the equation. Those two home runs very easily could have been solo home runs given how the innings were set up. We’re talking about six runs in two swings.
Sonny Gray hasn’t pitched since October 5 and he only worked 3.1 innings in that start. He was not sharp at all. I postulated with a couple buddies that Gray has never felt comfortable throwing to Gary Sanchez because everything he throws goes down in the zone and Sanchez is a poor receiver. It seemed to affect him negatively in Game 1, when he allowed three runs on three hits with four walks, a hit-by-pitch, a wild pitch, and only two strikeouts. Gray’s arsenal is pretty good, but he hasn’t been solid with the Yankees. In his 11 starts, Gray’s strikeout rate went down and his walk rate went up. From being behind in the count more, coupled with the park factor change, Gray’s HR/FB% went up.
I’m selling my Gray stock. I don’t think sitting around for 12 days is good for any pitcher at this point. The Yankees warmed up Chad Green twice yesterday, warmed up Aroldis Chapman, and still had to use Tommy Kahnle with an 8-0 lead. They also found out that Dellin Betances isn’t really an option.
Houston is having issues swinging the bats in this series, which isn’t a big surprise because the Yankees have a lot of high-velocity, swing-and-miss arms. I think this is a good matchup for the Astros and they know Gray very well from his days with Oakland.
I’m playing the Astros today if the price is right. I’m hoping to catch them as a small plus money dog with the concerns about McCullers.
Los Angeles at Chicago (-115) (Total 8 )
Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks are the slated starters for Game 3 at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have to be happy to get home. After an emotional Game 5 win in D.C., the travel out to Los Angeles was very difficult with a prolonged stop on the tarmac in Albuquerque to tend to an ailing member of the traveling party. Two losses later, the series is back in the Windy City.
If I may bitch and complain for a moment, Joe Maddon seriously disappointed me last game. I thought he was a dude that gets it. Saying that he was holding Wade Davis back for a save infuriates me. Davis isn’t the pitcher he once was, as the workload seems to be weighing on him, but losing that game without using Davis is criminal. I’m starting to believe that there are no good managers out there. None of these guys have a concept of game theory. They shun win probability and run expectancy to cling to outdated beliefs.
Perhaps it’s too easy for me since I don’t have personal relationships with any of the players. Being a manager is part psychologist part decision-maker. The decision-making part is a struggle for pretty much all of them out there. That’s the most important part. Anyway, Maddon paid for it, as well he should have. If he was protecting Davis’s arm or protecting his player for being a bit worn down, then you can make a case. If neither of those things are true, Wade Davis should be in that game. Especially over John f’in Lackey, who had NEVER worked back-to-back days in his career.
Now, the concerns have grown exponentially for the Cubs. They lost to Clayton Kershaw and lost a winnable game 2. They’ll face Yu Darvish, who has an elite arsenal. Darvish was having some periodic issues before the trade and right around the trade, but he fixed things and has gone back to being an elite arm. He had a 3.44 ERA with a 3.38 FIP and a 3.19 xFIP in his nine starts with the Dodgers. He saw some BABIP regression, which was a bit of a surprise, but his strikeout rate bounced back and his walk rate went back down. In all, Darvish struck out 209 and walked 58 in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. The arsenal looks crisper and sharper and he’s had plenty of time to sit around and wait after throwing five innings of one-run ball in the NLDS. He struck out seven and was held to around 75 pitches.
I fully expected Kyle Hendricks to have success against Washington in the NLDS. I talked about how the Nationals were one of the worst lineups in baseball against changeups and Hendricks’s best offering is that pitch. In 11 innings, Hendricks allowed four runs on 11 hits with 13 strikeouts against four walks. The Dodgers were a top-seven offense against changeups per Pitch Info Solutions and third per Fangraphs’s linear pitch type weight calculations. The Dodgers have a great offspeed hitting lineup. They were also among the league leaders against curveballs.
To me, this means that they probably had good success against slower fastballs. Hendricks wouldn’t get a speeding ticket in Texas with his fastball. The hard part for me is that I generally love these command dudes in the playoffs because I find them to be underrated. They don’t have the big names or the big arms, but have the biggest balls and can keep hitters off-balance in these high-leverage situations.
I don’t think Hendricks gets totally rocked, but I think his margin for error going up against Darvish is low. A start with three or four earned over five or six innings could put the Cubs in a seriously bad spot. Not to mention, the bullpen gap between these two teams is just staggering at this point. Chicago’s overworked, overused bullpen has not been nearly as effective as it needs to be. The Dodgers bullpen has been virtually untouchable. It is a huge edge for the Dodgers.
I’m looking for the Dodgers to take control of the series tonight. If a line was up for the total, I’d have some more thoughts for you, but I would think this game has the potential to be a little bit higher-scoring than the first two games.