DAVID MALINSKY
College Hoops 4* #739 TEXAS -4.5 over ARKANSAS
In setting this line where they have, the oddsmakers made a statement that the Arkansas upset of Oklahoma last week was “real”. That is putting the cart far ahead of the horse in our book, and a hard-nosed and veteran Texas team is in an excellent position to cash a ticket for us at this discount offering. Yes, it was a brilliant showing by the Razorbacks, who have the athleticism for special things when they are clicking. But note that the upset came against an Oklahoma team that was not forewarned, and also one that was not prepared for dealing with these uptempo tactics. It is because of that very result that Texas will be properly focused here, with Rick Barnes able to use those films not only for tactical purposes, but for motivation as well. And with Barnes having the kind of roster that can absorb the message, we will see Arkansas being exposed here, rather than building momentum. The Longhorns bring the ideal chemistry to take into a hostile environment – a starting lineup of seniors A. J. Abrams and Connor Atchley, and juniors Damion Jones, Dexter Pittman and Justin Mason, is no stranger to taking on challenges away from Austin – they won at U.C.L.A. in non-conference play LY, while also beating NCAA-bound Kansas State and Oklahoma on the Big 12 road, and they showed their fortitude in winning at Wisconsin already this season. The defense has a chance to be as good as any in the nation, allowing 38.6 percent from the field, 30.6 from beyond the arc, and just 59.9 points per game, with a combination of both physical tenacity and court savvy. The latter allows Barnes to go both zone and man-to-man, with that flexibility giving him ideal matchups against a young Arkansas back-court starting freshman Courtney Fortson and Rashnei Clark. The Razorbacks are mercurial, but a little soft, and it takes more than beating one major opponent to have them ready for this class – in terms of strength of schedule they are #342 in the nation on the Sagarin ratings, and #337 from Pomery (as always, we will use those outside sources for such references, so that our own numbers can be kept safely in-house). We expect them to face major adversity for the first time tonight, getting drawn into a half-court game in which they are not at their best, and the frustrations will show.
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