Tuesday 08/25/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuesday 08/25/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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FYI, let's limit the comps to the first 2 pages, I need this thread to be used for chatter and what games members would like to pick up or split. Service thread getting way to much chatter. Ty.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB WRITE-UP

Tuesday, August 25

Hot Pitchers
-- Blanton is 4-2, 2.41 in his last nine starts. Ohlendorf is 3-0, 2.49 in his last four starts.
-- Jurrjens is 1-0, 2.77 in his last two starts.
-- Arroyo has 2.03 RA in his last four starts.
-- Mock is 2-1, 2.12 in his last three starts. Cubs won Zambrano's last five starts, scoring 33 runs.
-- Rodriguez is 6-1, 2.29 in his last nine starts. Wainwright is 6-2, 1.34 in his last ten starts.
-- Rockies won six of last seven Hammel home starts.
-- Cain has a 2.36 RA in his last ten starts.

-- Lester is 1-0, 2.00 in his last four starts.
-- Greinke has 3.00 RA in his last three starts, but Royals are 3-12 in his last 15 starts overall, scoring three or less runs in 10 of the 12 losses.

Cold Pitchers
-- Latos is 0-2, 14.09 in his last couple starts.
-- West is 1-3, 6.57 in his last five starts. Figueroa is 0-2, 10.57 in two starts for the Mets this season.
-- Suppan is 0-4, 7.77 in his last eight starts.
-- Kershaw has 3.27 RA in his last six starts, but Dodgers lost all six of the games, scoring total of 14 runs.
-- Haren is 2-3, 6.00 in his last six starts.

-- Chamberlain has 6.75 RA in his last three starts; Bronx is 14-4 in his last 18 starts. Millwood has a 5.70 RA in his last eight starts.
-- Shields is 1-5, 5.32 in his last ten starts. Cecil is 1-1, 6.89 in his last three starts.
-- Garcia allowed five runs in 4.1 IP in losing his first '09 start.
-- Matusz is 1-2, 9.22 in his last three starts. Gabino is 5-3, 2.83 in his 85 IP in minors in '09, but only five of his 36 appearances were starts.
-- Masterson is 1-1, 5.52 in three starts for Cleveland. Royals are
-- Washburn is 0-1, 6.04 in four starts for Detroit (Tiger bullpen won his last three starts). Lackey is 1-2, 5.00 in his last four starts.
-- Anderson is 1-1, 6.50 in his last three starts. Rowland-Smith has 5.48 RA in his last four starts.

Hot Teams
-- Phillies won seven of their last eight games. Pirates won five of their last six games.
-- Braves won four of their last five games.
-- Brewers won three of their last four games.
-- Astros won four of their last five games. Cardinals won 12 of their last 15 games.
-- Colorado won 28 of its last 38 home games.
-- Dodgers won three of last four games, allowing six runs.

-- Bronx won four of its last five games.
-- Rays won seven of their last nine games.
-- Red Sox won five of their last seven games.
-- Indians won 11 of their last 16 road games.
-- Twins won six of their last seven games.
-- Angels won 12 of their last 17 home games.
-- Oakland is 11-9 in its last 20 games.

Cold Teams
-- Padres lost four of their last five games.
-- Mets lost 15 of their last 22 games. Marlins lost four of last five.
-- Reds lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Nationals lost six of their last seven games. Cubs lost five of their last seven games.
-- Arizona lost seven of its last eight games.
-- Giants lost four of their last five games.

-- Rangers are 2-7 in last nine road series openers.
-- Toronto is 10-18 in its last 28 games.
-- White Sox lost 14 of their last 19 road games.
-- Orioles lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Royals lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Tigers lost 14 of their last 19 road games.
-- Mariners are 4-7 in their last eleven games.

Totals
-- Under is 13-3-2 in Phillies' last 18 road games.
-- Three of last four Jurrjens starts went over the total.
-- Five of last seven West starts went over the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Arroyo starts.
-- Mock's last three starts stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Rodriguez starts stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in Haren's last ten road starts.

-- Eight of last ten Chamberlain starts went over the total.
-- Six of Tampa Bay's last seven road games went over the total.
-- 11 of last 12 games at Fenway Park went over the total.
-- Over is 13-1-1 in Cleveland's last 15 road games.
-- Six of last seven Baltimore road games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last ten Detroit road games went over the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Oakland road games went over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trend Report

7:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia is 10-2-1 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

7:05 PM
TEXAS vs. NY YANKEES
Texas is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing NY Yankees
Texas is 6-12 SU in their last 18 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games at home

7:07 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. TORONTO
Tampa Bay is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Toronto's last 14 games when playing Tampa Bay

7:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. BOSTON
Chi White Sox are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Boston
Chi White Sox are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Boston
Boston is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston's last 12 games at home

7:10 PM
NY METS vs. FLORIDA
NY Mets are 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing on the road against Florida
Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Florida's last 15 games

7:10 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. ATLANTA
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games at home

8:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. MILWAUKEE
Cincinnati is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games on the road
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Milwaukee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

8:05 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CHI CUBS
Washington is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games
Chi Cubs are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games at home

8:10 PM
BALTIMORE vs. MINNESOTA
Baltimore is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore

8:10 PM
CLEVELAND vs. KANSAS CITY
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland

8:15 PM
HOUSTON vs. ST. LOUIS
Houston is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games on the road
St. Louis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 8 games when playing at home against Houston

8:40 PM
LA DODGERS vs. COLORADO
LA Dodgers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Colorado is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Colorado's last 10 games at home

10:05 PM
DETROIT vs. LA ANGELS
Detroit is 3-8 SU in their last 11 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 12 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
LA Angels are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 11 of LA Angels's last 14 games at home

10:10 PM
OAKLAND vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Oakland's last 12 games on the road
Oakland is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games

10:15 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Arizona is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (-138, 7)

The Giants are starting a series and a homestand, which has been a winning formula all season.

The Giants won the opener of their first six series at Pacific Bell Park and are 14-5 overall in series openers.

When starting a homestand, the Giants are even better. San Francisco won the opening game of a homestand eight straight times before losing its last one to Cincinnati on Aug. 7.

Did we mention that the Diamondbacks have lost nine of their last 10 road games? Or that Cy Young Award candidate Matt Cain is pitching for the Giants?

Pick: San Francisco


Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals (-163, 8)

For the Indians, the kids are all right.

Cleveland has won five of its last eight games with the help of hot hitting from a pair of youngsters.

Second baseman Luis Valbuena, who hit less than .200 through the first two months of the season, is batting .305 since July 1. He is riding a six-game hitting streak (8-for-23) with four runs, two homers and four RBI.

Outfielder Matt LaPorta has hit safely in all four games since his recall from the minor leagues, batting .333 with three doubles, four runs and four RBI.

To keep their hitting streaks alive, Valbuena and LaPorta have to get the better of slumping Royals ace Zack Greinke, who has won just one of his last nine starts.

Pick: Cleveland

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Joe Blanton (8-6, 3.86 ERA), Philadelphia Phillies

This righty gets forgotten sometimes on Philly’s southpaw dominated starting rotation. But sharp bettors know the good work the hefty hurler is providing.

Blanton has delivered a quality start in nine of his last 10 outings, dropping his once bloated ERA under 4.00.

The under is 7-2-1 in his last 10 outings and the Phils are 6-2 in his last eight starts.

“He’s a bulldog who comes right after you,” Phillies manager Charlie Manuel told reporters following his last start.


Slumping

Jarrod Washburn (8-7, 3.18), Detroit Tigers

The move to acquire this lefty hasn’t worked out as well has the Tigers had hoped. The former Mariner had 2.48 ERA at Seattle’s home park this year, but he’s not finding the confines as friendly in Detroit.

Washburn has allowed 17 earned runs in just four starts for the Tigers – all of which were at Comerica Park.

“It hasn’t gone the way I wanted so far,” Washburn said of his Tiger career following his latest poor showing.

He got the early hook in his last start after giving up six runs and four dingers against his former team. Washburn is 0-1 with a 6.04 ERA in a Detroit uniform.


Returning

Carlos Zambrano (7-4, 3.35), Chicago Cubs

This fiery righty makes his return from the disabled list tomorrow against the Nationals. A sore back has kept Zambrano out of the Cubs lineup since Aug. 1.

He drew some headlines shortly after making his way to the DL. He admitted to reporters that his back was acting up because he was too lazy to strengthen his abdominal muscles.

He threw five scoreless innings in a minor league start last week and pronounced himself healthy afterwards. Chicago had won Zambrano’s last five starts prior to the DL detour

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rob Vinciletti

MLB | Aug 25
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox
-1½-150 at BOOKM > 11h.
On Tuesday the Bonus Play is the Boston Redsox on the Run line.Game number 922 at 7:10 eastern.The Redsox fit a tremendous 27-4 system tonight.Howeer no one in their right mind should lay -310.The run line though looks to be a good value.What we want to do is play on Home favorites of -200 or higher off a home favored win of 2 or more runs scoring 10 or more runs on 10+ hits.If tonights opponent scored 5 + runs.The system on the run line is still a very profitable 21-10.The Redsox are 6-0 as a home favorite in this range while the Whitesox are 0-3 as a road dog in this range.Boston has J.Lester going tonight and he is 8-3 with a 3.33 era at home this year.Over his last 3 starts he has a 2.14 era.Tonight he opposes F.Garcia on the comeback trail.In his first start he went 4+ innings and allowed 5 runs.He will have his work cut out for him tonight vs a Redsox team that is averaging over 8 runs per game and hitting well over .300 in the last 7 games.On Tueasday I have a 13-2 Totals system that averages 13 runs per game.Its the National league total of the month.Jump on and cash out on this easy winner.Mlb totals have been white hot.For the Bonus Play take the Redsox on the run line bol RV-

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JR O'Donnell

MLB | Aug 25
Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals Cleveland Indians
+150 at SIA > 12h.
2-0 Smooth Tuesday's Pack...Siganture MLB 500* UnderDog Paid Bomb....

The Tribe stepping up & playing way better as of late, we note that the Indians a 60% winning prop the last 35 games. look at the 8.0 runs and .323 clip at the plate

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Robbie Gainous

MLB | Aug 25
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants
-140 at BODOG > 15h.
The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants square off in a three-game set at AT&T Park with the first game set for Tuesday night and a first pitch at 10:15PM Eastern Time. This will be the final series of a ten game road trip for the Diamondbacks who are 61-82 (-21.4) in road games the last 2 seasons and 2-8 (-7.8) after 7 or more consecutive road games this season. San Fran returns home off an eleven game road trip of their own.

Arizona is 55-70 (-17.8) on the season overall and out of the playoff hunt while San Francisco is 6.5 games behind the division leading Dodgers and 3.5 back of second place Colorado with a record of 67-57 (+10.1). The Giants have been extremely tough at home posting a record of 39-20 (+15.5) this season. That’s not good news for this Arizona team as they are 42-68 (-29.6) when playing against a team with a winning record the last two seasons.

The difference in the two teams can easily be explained when you see that San Fran is ranked 1 in pitching with an ERA of 3.53 with opponents hitting .237 and have an OBP of .312 against them. The Diamondbacks are ranked 15 in pitching with an ERA of 4.33 with opponents hitting .264 and have an OBP of .329 against them.

At the plate we see much of the same with the Giants ranked 16 in hitting with a batting average of .261 averaging 4.0 runs per game with an OPS of .700. Arizona is ranked 28 in hitting with a batting average of .252 averaging 4.4 runs per game and an OPS of .742. The Diamondbacks have really struggled of late at the plate and we know they are 40-54 (-21.9) after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span the last 2 seasons.

Arizona will send right-hander Dan Haren to the bump with his 12-8 record and ERA of 2.74. He has a record of 6-3 with a 3.41 ERA on the road this season but recently he has struggled. Haren is coming off a horrible performance at Philly in his last start where he pitched for 5 innings giving up 6 earned runs on 9 hits including three homeruns in an 8 to 1 loss. Prior to that start he won at home versus the Dodgers 4 to 1 but his previous road start saw him lose in Washington 5 to 2 throwing for 6 innings giving up 5 earned runs on 7 hits and two homeruns.

The Giants will send right-hander Matt Cain to the hill with his 12-4 record and ERA of 2.43. When Cain takes the bump at home he is 6-2 with an ERA of 2.37 and the Giants are 10-2 in his 12 home starts this season. He lost his last start throwing for 8 innings in Cincinnati giving up 1 earned run on 8 hits with 3 strikeouts in a 2 to 1 loss.

On the technical front we have two MLB Systems that are active for tonight’s game. The first tells us to Play AGAINST MLB (NL) road underdogs who allow 4.8 or more runs per game against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or better over his last five starts. This system is 108-34 over the last five seasons for +49.1 units. The second system tells us to Play ON MLB (NL) favorites in this price range who average scoring 4.1 runs or less per game facing a starter whose ERA is 3.70 or better and a bullpen who has a WHIP of 1.350 or better on the season. This system has a record of 41-10 since 1997 for +27.6 units of profit.

With significant support both fundamentally and technically for the host we will back them here as the Giants continue their pursuit of a playoff berth and the Diamondbacks begin their plans for the offseason.

Graded Selection: 2* San Francisco Giants 3 Arizona Diamondbacks 1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

MLB | Aug 25
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Total
7 un-125 at BOOKM > 15h.
A pair of lousy offensive teams meet, and a pair of aces on the hill. These teams rank 21 and 26 in baseball in runs scored. Arizona righty Dan Haren (12-8) doesn't wal anyone (26 in 174 innings) and averages close to 9 Ks per 9 innings. San Fran righty Matt Cain (12-4, 2.43 ERA) has really blossomed this season, with excellent control. Don't look for many runs, play the Diamondbacks/Giants Under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

TUESDAY DODGERS/ROCKIES OVER 9

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

(925) CLEVELAND INDIANS
(926) KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Take "(925) CLEVELAND INDIANS"

 

[BigEd83]

John Morrison MLB System Picks 8/25


Nats [A] RL unofficial
Pirates [A] RL unofficial

CHEERS!:drink:

This guy has to be the biggest scam artisit around.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Gambling Hotline

Winner last night on Seattle to make it a 23-10-1 Bonus Play run!

The Yankees just finished up a rather high-scoring series in Boston, as ALL 3 of the weekend games found their way OVER the posted total.

We like that string to continue, as New York starter Joba Chamberlain sure looks like the rigors of the long season are wearing on him. The burly righty has allowed an alarming 12 earned runs in his last 16 innings of work, and his season ERA at home this year is quite near 5.

Texas has some bats that can do some damage, so look for the Rangers to plate a few against the gassed Joba.

As for the Yankees, they are facing Kevin Millwood in the right place, as Millwood is just 2-6 away from home this season with an ERA over 4, and he is also coming off a 6 inning, 5 run allowance at home against Minnesota.

2 of the 3 series meetings this year at the new Yankee Stadium have eclipsed the total, and we feel this one will as well.

The Rangers are on a 4-2-1 OVER clip their last 7 games, and the way New York is seeing the baseball right now, Texas is going to need to keep the OVER tear going if they want to stay in this game.

Play on the OVER.
3? OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brad Diamond Sports

Play on: Minnesota (924) over Baltimore @ 8:10 PM EST
RHP Armando Gabino (Rochester) comes in from AAA ball to throw against the pesky Orioles on Tuesday. The kid has a solid 5-2 mark and a 2.83 ERA, including a super 55/22 strikeout to walk ratio in the minor leagues. The O’s start highly touted rookie lefty Matusz who has been rocked in the early going with a less than impressive ERA of 6.75. The Twins are 12-5 against the Orioles and 26-9 versus left-handed pitching. Also, Minnesota shows at 10-2 on Tuesday’s. With Baltimore winning both games in 2009, look for the Twins to avenge those losses and come on strong here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dominic Fazzini

My four-day winning streak came to an end Monday. No problem, though, that just means it's time to start another one!

Braves starter Jair Jurrjens (10-8, 2.99 ERA) has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball this season. The right-hander has allowed four runs and 13 hits in 13 innings over his last two outings, and he has a 2.81 ERA in 13 home starts this year.

Jurrjens allowed one run and seven hits in six innings in his only career start vs. San Diego, on May 6, 2008.

Padres rookie Mat Latos (4-3, 4.82) started off strong in his first five major league starts, but the right-hander has been rocked in his last two outings. How bad? His ERA jumped from 2.43 to its current total after giving up 12 runs and 15 hits in 7 2/3 innings over those two starts.

Latos faced the Braves on Aug. 3 and pitched well, allowing two runs and six hits in seven innings. That was in San Diego. In three road starts, however, Latos has a 5.40 ERA.

The Padres have been offensively challenged most of this season, and have scored just eight runs in their last five games while batting .160. The Braves, on the other hand, have averaged 5.6 runs in Jurrjens' last 18 outings.

Atlanta has won eight straight series against San Diego, which is just 19-40 on the road and 32-51 against right-handers. This one could be over by the fifth inning. Take the Braves on the run line.
4♦ ATLANTA -1 1/2 RUNS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Benton

Tough last-minute free-play loser with the Ravens on Monday. Still, can’t really complain about my freebie success lately, as I’m 30-18 with my last 48 complimentary releases, including 4-2 over the last six days. For Tuesday, I’ll take the Rockies as they open a key home series against Los Angeles.

Is Colorado living large right now or what? Last night, the Rockies went 14 innings against the Giants, fell behind 4-1 in the top of the 14th, then rallied with five runs in the bottom of the inning for an amazing 6-4 victory, capped by a walk-off grand slam. Colorado has put the heat on the first-place Dodgers thanks to a remarkable run that has seen the team win 51 of its last 74 games, going 26-10 in its last 36 at Coors Field.

Yes, the Rockies have struggled against the Dodgers this season, losing 10 of 12 meetings, but the majority of those games were played when Colorado was scuffling – and when Los Angeles was rolling. These days, the roles have been completely reversed. The Rockies are red hot, while the Dodgers have been playing sub-.500 baseball since July 1.

Tonight, the Dodgers hand the ball to young lefty Clayton Kershaw, who has tremendous stuff but is once again struggling to find the strike zone, as he’s issued nearly as many walks (15) in his last three starts as he has innings pitched (19). From late May through the end of June, L.A. went 7-0 with Kershaw on the mound. Since then, though, the Dodgers have lost six straight games behind the 21-year-old.

Bottom line: Kershaw (8.24 ERA in four career starts at Coors Field) and the Dodgers were installed as the early favorite in this contest, but that number quickly came down, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Colorado in the favorite role by the time the first pitch is thrown – and it’s the right line move, especially given the opposite direction these clubs are going. Colorado’s the play.
5♦ COLORADO (BASED ON A 1♦ TO 10♦ SCALE)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bobby Maxwell

Back on the diamond for a Bonus Play on the Giants as they return home to face the Diamondbacks tonight.

The Giants lost a tough one on Monday night, falling 6-4 in 14 innings in Colorado after building a 4-1 lead in the top half of the 14th. But this team relies on its starting pitching and I love the way Matt Cain (12-4, 2.43 ERA) has been throwing this season and expect him to deliver a huge effort tonight.

Cain is 6-2 at home and has allowed three runs or less in eight of his last 10 outings. San Francisco has won six of his last nine starts, but lost his last outing on Thursday, even though he allowed just one run in eight innings.

In two starts against Arizona this season, Cain has given up a combined five runs in 13.1 innings as San Francisco split two outings in Arizona. Last time he saw the D'Backs in San Francisco he threw a complete game, allowing one run on three hits in a 2-1 victory back in 2007.

Arizona's Dan Haren (12-8, 2.74) got destroyed on Wednesday in Philly, giving up six runs on nine hits in five innings of an 8-1 loss. He's given up five runs or more in three of his last four starts and three or more in five of his last six outings.

The Giants have won five of the last seven against the D'Backs and they are on further runs of 27-12 at home, 33-16 as a favorite, 8-1 in Cain's last nine at home, 15-5 in his last 20 starts overall and 13-3 when he pitches after a team loss. Meanwhile, Arizona is on slides of 1-9 on the road, 1-7 overall, 11-27 as a 'dog and 17-42 against teams with winning records.

The Giants have won 41 of 61 at home against these D'Backs. Play them to get it done again today. Go with San Francisco.
4? SAN FRANCISCO

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Karl Garrett

G-Man misfired with my Bonus Play last night on the White Sox-Red Sox total, but I will NOT misfire tonight at the Rogers Centre, as I LOVE Tampa Bay and Toronto to head OVER the total with Shields and Cecil on the bump.

Last night these teams went way OVER the posted price, as the Rays made it 3 of their last 5 in the OVER column, while the Jays made it 3 in a row, and 5 of their last 7 landing HIGH.

Your starters James Shields, and Brett Cecil have both been on the hill for OVER games in 2 of their last 3 starts, and Shields has been an OVER hurler in 5 of his last 8 overall starts.

For the season, 7 of Cecil's 13 starting assignments have played UP. If the Rays can tag Roy Halladay the way they did last night, they should certainly be able to get a few runs against Brett Cecil.

G-Man says ride the OVER in this one.
3? OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

What bettors need to know: Rangers at Yankees

By THE PREZ - I am your Financial Advisor - I take this very seriously

Texas Rangers at New York Yankees

Game 1 odds: -173, 9.5

Season series

The Yankees lead 4-2, with two of those wins coming during a three-game series at Yankee Stadium in early June when New York outscored Texas 22-13.

No Texas starter has lasted longer than 6 2-3 innings in the six games this year against the Yankees. Overall, Texas has won just nine of its past 34 meetings against the Yanks.

How they enter

Texas avoided a three-game sweep at Tampa Bay with Sunday’s 4-0 victory. Another loss would have dropped the Rangers into a tie with the Rays in the wild-card standings.

New York just finished a 10-game road trip by taking two of three in Boston to finish the swing at 7-3. The Yankees, 27-9 since the All-Star break, hit five homers off Josh Beckett in Sunday’s win, the first time Beckett has allowed that many dingers in his career.

Probable pitchers

Tuesday

Kevin Millwood (9-8, 3.48) vs. Joba Chamberlain (8-3, 3.98)

Millwood has just one career win in eight starts against the Yankees but does have a 2.84 ERA in his past five against them. He allowed three earned runs over 5 2-3 innings in a no-decision earlier this year. Texas has dropped his past four when priced as an underdog.

Chamberlain pitches for the first time since Aug. 16 because the Yankees continue to limit his innings pitched. Chamberlain lasted only four innings in an earlier start against Texas this year and has never lasted more than five innings against the AL West club in three starts.

New York is 14-2 in his past 16 home starts overall.

Wednesday

Derek Holland (7-7, 4.72) vs. Andy Pettitte (10-6, 4.25)

Holland has been tremendous of late, going 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA since July 30. That’s the second best ERA in the AL during that stretch.
Pettitte is 1-6 in his last seven decisions against the Rangers. That includes a loss on June 3, when he walked six in five innings.

Thursday afternoon

Dustin Nippert (4-2, 3.95) vs. A.J. Burnett (10-7, 4.08)

Nippert has had trouble in road starts this year, going 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA. Burnett shut out the Rangers through six innings on May 27 and then allowed three runs to them in seven innings on June 2.

He totalled 15 strikeouts in those two starts and is 3-2 with a 3.99 ERA career against Texas. But Burnett also is coming off giving up a career-high nine runs in a start against Boston.

This and that

Rangers third baseman Michael Young has an 11-game hitting streak. During that streak, Young is hitting .444 with 20 hits and 11 RBIs. He was named AL Player of the Week on Monday.

New York’s Hideki Matsui had four multi-homer games in his career entering this past weekend, then had two of them in the series with Boston, adding nine RBIs.

Texas first baseman Hank Blalock, who has just seven hits in is his past 43 at-bats, is about to lose some playing time - at least at first base where he has started the past 44 games.

Texas is recalling Chris Davis from Triple-A and manager Ron Washington said Davis will be his first baseman for the opener against New York and mostly going forward. Blalock will spell Davis at first some but will mostly play DH.

The Yankees have won 10 of 11 series since the All-Star break, with the lone series loss coming at the White Sox.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuesday Tips
By Kevin Rogers


Winding down the month of August, plenty of teams are playing for postseason positioning, while others are trying to play out the string. A handful of matchups on the Tuesday card provide solid pitching duels, including a key showdown in the Bronx.

Rangers at Yankees (7:05 PM EST)

The Rangers avoided a sweep on Sunday by shutting out Tampa Bay, 4-0. Texas heads north for a crucial series with the Yankees, as the Rangers sit one game behind the Red Sox inside the AL Wild Card race entering Monday's action. New York helped out Texas' cause by taking two of three from Boston this past weekend at Fenway Park.

Joba Chamberlain (8-3, 3.98 ERA) is coming off three unimpressive starts, allowing 12 earned runs in his last 16 innings of work. Chamberlain was knocked around by the Mariners his last time out, tossing only five innings in a 10-3 loss. The Bombers are 11-2 in Chamberlain's 13 home starts, while hitting the 'over' nine times at Yankee Stadium. Chamberlain was on the losing side of a 7-3 setback in Arlington three months ago, allowing four hits and three earned runs in four innings of work.

Kevin Millwood (9-8, 3.48 ERA) beat Chamberlain and the Yankees on May 25, lasting 5.2 innings, while giving up nine hits and three earned runs. The Rangers righty hasn't won in his last four starts, coming off consecutive home defeats to the Twins and Red Sox. The Boston meltdown had little to do with Millwood's performance, as the Rangers' bullpen gave up a ninth-inning lead in an 8-4 loss. The 'under' has been drilled in eight of Millwood's eleven road outings this season, while the Rangers are just 3-8 in his away starts.

The Yankees have taken four of six meetings with the Rangers this season, but Tuesday's posted total of 9 ½ is the lowest seen in their seven matchups.

Sportsbook has opened the Yanks up as a $1.85 home favorite.

Astros at Cardinals (8:15 PM EST)

Two of the more unheralded pitchers in the National League take the mound in St. Louis, as the Astros and Cardinals begin a three-game set. The Redbirds return home following a 5-2 road trip at Los Angeles and San Diego. Houston had its four-game winning streak snapped on Sunday to Arizona, 7-5. That game finished 'over' the posted total of 8 ½, which ended a five-game 'under' streak for the Astros.

Adam Wainwright (14-7, 2.61 ERA) has owned the Astros in his career, with St. Louis taking seven of the last eight meetings when the righty has taken the mound. The only smudge to that record was a 2-0 loss to Houston earlier this month, despite pitching seven strong innings. Interestingly, Wainwright possesses a losing record at Busch Stadium this season (5-6), even though his home ERA is 2.02. Wainwright has tossed 11 consecutive quality starts, and if it wasn't for teammate Chris Carpenter, Wainwright would be an ace on plenty of other staffs around the league.

Wandy Rodriguez (12-7, 2.89 ERA) is coming off a dynamic start against the Marlins, a 4-1 victory. Rodriguez outdueled Florida ace Josh Johnson, allowing four hits and one run in eight innings of work. In Rodriguez's last three starts at Busch Stadium, the Astros have tallied a grand total of two runs, all Houston losses. However, the Astros lefty exited his last outing at St. Louis after four innings with a hamstring strain.

These two teams have been great 'under' plays when they get together. The 'under' has hit in seven of nine meetings this season, including all three in Houston in early August.

The Cardinals are a $1.70 home 'chalk,' while the total is set at 7 (Bet $1.20 to win $1.00 on the 'over') at Sportsbook.

Dodgers at Rockies (8:40 PM EST)

The National League West race isn't done just yet. Los Angeles, despite taking three of four from Chicago over the weekend, sits 3 games ahead of Wild Card-leading Colorado in the division, after the Rockies rallied past the Giants last night, 6-4.

The Rockies will not have the fortune of sending out its top two pitchers against the Dodgers, as Ubaldo Jimenez took the mound Sunday and Jason Marquis went Monday against San Francisco. Jason Hammel (8-8, 4.60) has turned into a quality pickup by the Rockies. Hammel may not be a top-of-the-rotation type of pitcher, but he is capable of providing six or seven innings in any given start. The righty has struggled at Coors Field, going 2-3, with an ERA of 7.02, but Colorado is 7-3 in Hammel's ten home starts. Hammel lost a tough 1-0 decision to the Dodgers back on July 1, allowing only five hits and one run in eight innings.

Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 2.96 ERA) has run into a string of bad luck over the month, as the Dodgers are 0-6 in the lefty's last six starts. The southpaw has lasted five innings or less in three of his last four trips to the hill, including a 3-2 defeat to the Cardinals last Wednesday. Kershaw tossed five scoreless innings against the Rockies in that July 1 win over Hammel, but received a no-decision.

Sportsbook has listed the Dodgers as a $1.25 road favorite, with the total set at 9 (Bet $1.15 to win $1.00 on the 'over').