TSG's NBA thread

[thesccrguy15]

I've had a couple NBA threads going this season and neither of them has gone the way I wanted it to. I figured why continue to post picks that won't make anybody any profit? I THINK I've come up with a decent system that combines a few different formulas and when back tested went over 70% ATS and O/U. I believe I can keep it at this rate and will begin tomorrow (tonight) with the picks! Look forward to (finally) having a winning season!! It looks like there will be a few games tomorrow. If not, I'll always be able to follow MJ, Gabbana, Spreadproof or any of the other great cappers I left off here at the RX.

:toast:

 

[thesccrguy15]

Here we go with day 1. All lines from bookmaker.

TORONTO +2 (Bought 1/2)
MIAMI/DENVER UNDER 200
NEW ORLEANS +5

Also leaning on Oklahoma City, not sure if it will be a play though. Still could add a couple more games.

 

[thesccrguy15]

Adding

OKLAHOMA CITY +6

The last 4 times these teams have played, the average score was 3 points apart. This season the Thunder won by 3 and lost by 2. I don't think it will be any different this time around and the game will be decided by 4 or less points.

[Note: other leans are Orlando +2 and Milwaukee -7, Washington/Toronto OVER 192 probably won't be plays.]
:toast:

 

[Presto]

I like the OK getting 6. Minny should never be giving points, even to a lesser team. Line has moved to 5- now.

gl tsg

 

[thesccrguy15]

HOUSTON +10 1/2

Both teams coming off embarrasing road losses against teams they should have beaten. This should be a hard fought game on both sides but 10 1/2 is simply too much to lay on Boston against the Rockets. The Celtics are showing some fatigue now that the newness of the season has worn off and I think they're inbetween excitement of winning last years championship and getting excited for this years. Boston wins but not by 11.

 

[thesccrguy15]

I like the OK getting 6. Minny should never be giving points, even to a lesser team. Line has moved to 5- now.

gl tsg

Thank you. I don't see why the was -6 for MIN.. I'd take -5 all day.

 

[thesccrguy15]

1/7/09 CARD

TORONTO +2 (Bought 1/2)
MIAMI/DENVER UNDER 200
NEW ORLEANS +5
OKLAHOMA CITY +6
HOUSTON +10.5

[Leans: Orlando +2, Milwaukee -7, Washington/Toronto OVER 192]

 

[thesccrguy15]

ATS YTD - 2-2-0
O/U YTD - 0-1-0

TORONTO +2 (Bought 1/2) WON
MIAMI/DENVER UNDER 200 LOST
NEW ORLEANS +5 LOST
OKLAHOMA CITY +6 LOSThno:
HOUSTON +10.5 WON

Bounce back weekend coming up. :aktion033

 

[thesccrguy15]

No plays today. Plenty of games tomorrow for a nice bounce back day.

Leans for today FWIW (not plays)
New York/Dallas UNDER 209, predicted total 205.5
New York +8

 

[thesccrguy15]

Should have played my leans hno:

So far they're 3-1-1..

One early play for tomorrow:

CHARLOTTE +6

Hopefully more to come.

 

[thesccrguy15]

ATS YTD - 2-2-0
O/U YTD - 0-1-0

Friday 1/09 Picks
CHARLOTTE +6
MEMPHIS +6 (Bought .5)
PHOENIX -5 (Bought .5)
HOUSTON/OKC - UNDER 196.5

k:

 

[thesccrguy15]

ATS YTD - 3-3-1
O/U YTD - 1-1-0

CHARLOTTE +6 PUSH
MEMPHIS +6 (Bought .5) LOSS
PHOENIX -5 (Bought .5) WIN
HOUSTON/OKC - UNDER 196.5 WIN

Profitable day.. but not as good as it's gonna get. Looks like there will be a few plays tomorrow as well.

 

[thesccrguy15]

1/10 Plays
KNICKS +7
MIN/MIL UNDER 200
CHARLOTTE +4

As you can see I always buy the hook. Unluckily, I seem to always pick the games with a hook.

Lean on OKC +8.5, may be back later with others.

 

[thesccrguy15]

ADDING :

OKC +9 (Bought .5)

Final Plays 1/10
KNICKS +7
MIN/MIL UNDER 200
CHARLOTTE +4
OKLAHOMA CITY +9

 

[thesccrguy15]

ATS YTD - 5-4-1
O/U YTD - 1-2-0

KNICKS +7 LOST
MIN/MIL UNDER 200 LOST
CHARLOTTE +4 WON
OKLAHOMA CITY +9 WON

2 and 2 day.. going to get a little more risky tomorrow.

 

[thesccrguy15]

Actually only one play right now..

1/11 play
ORLANDO +3 (Bought .5)


Leans are Celtics -5, Sac/Dal OVER 201.5, Atlanta -6, Miami/LAL OVER 204, Warriors +2, Mavs -3.. Not sure if any will become plays..

 

[thesccrguy15]

ATS YTD - 6-4-1
O/U YTD - 1-2-0

1/11 play
ORLANDO +3 (Bought .5) WIN

Should be up but decided to tail someone who went like 1-6, just my luck. hno:

 

[thesccrguy15]

No plays for tonight unless the lines start moving..

 

[thesccrguy15]

Plays will be posted around 6:30.. It's a little more accurate when I post closer to tip off. I'll also be starting the "Win $100 or lose $485.10" part of this thread. Basically, this is a martingale system betting that I don't think this system will give me (and I will pick) 3 consecutive losers, as I will play my strongest play in this section.

Leans
Miami/Minnesota UNDER (hoping line moves)
Miami -1.5
Dallas +5
Atlanta +6

 

[thesccrguy15]

1/13 Plays
Lakers -4

Lean - Miami -1
*MIA/MIN UNDER 198 or more IF you can get it, bookmaker is at 196.5 so I'm not betting it nor counting it..

WIN $100 OR LOSE
1 OF 3 - Atlanta +7.5
$110 to win $100