Trying to find a good reason to take Dallas +3 or +3.5

[coitus_maximus]

I honestly cannot find a good reason to take the Cowboys Saturday. The matchups all favor the Jets. QB, RB, WR, Run defense, Turnovers, Sacks. No home field advantage at Dallas and just -3 with 80% public action on the Jets and the only NFL game Saturday.

My brain says Jets win a squeaker to play New England next week, but experience in betting says it's a trap.

Thoughts on this game anyone?

 

[DertyD]

All excellent points.

Many thought CAR@DAL was a trap too and CAR did the job. (For the record, I do not think CAR is the same as the NYJ)

I'm on NYJ-3 and I'll disclose I'm a DAL fan...

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Yeah, can't figure this game out. Just when I'm ready to bet Dallas ML, the thought of Cassel being 1-9 SU past 10 comes up.......& back up Qbs have done terrible this season except for Colts.

I'm looking at 3 teams vying for the AFC #5 & #6 seeds......Pitt, KC & Jets.....& one won't get in. The Chiefs have the lockdown on the other two for #5 seed as long as they run the table & so do the other two.

So IMO, either Jets or Pitt will lose a game coming up, & looking at Jets schedule, they play Patriots next week. Do the Jets win this week? Your guess is as good as mine, I'm staying far away from the Saturday game........would I be surprised to see Dallas win? Nope......the whole world will be on the Jets!

 

[Kaveman]

Jets close at Bills; you know Rex would like nothing better than to knock them out, and will have his team hyped. This may be the last good chance they have to get a win. Don't see them beating Pats.

 

[chonce]

I like the Jets but concede this could be a trap. One thing I observed from reading a Jets forum is that in some ways this Dallas game is not as consequential with tie-breakers because it is a non-conference game. Even if they win it, under most scenarios they will likely need to win the Pats game to keep pace with the Steelers. I took the Jets -3 though, in part because I don't know if it will stay there. If it goes to 3.5 I could talk myself into buying out, but I will probably stick with it. But this is despite the same reservations you have -- the public consensus, the trap factor are raise flag.

I should add though that Bob Socci, the bookmaker who does that Behind the bets podcast on ESPN said that, at least initially, the sharps and public both took the Jets. He said he expected the line to go up to -4. But that was yesterday and things change.

 

[3pointdog]

Jets all day

 

[sonnycam]

I honestly cannot find a good reason to take the Cowboys Saturday. The matchups all favor the Jets. QB, RB, WR, Run defense, Turnovers, Sacks. No home field advantage at Dallas and just -3 with 80% public action on the Jets and the only NFL game Saturday.

My brain says Jets win a squeaker to play New England next week, but experience in betting says it's a trap.

Thoughts on this game anyone?

no reason at all to take dallas. Next!!!!!

 

[coitus_maximus]

Yeah, can't figure this game out. Just when I'm ready to bet Dallas ML, the thought of Cassel being 1-9 SU past 10 comes up.......& back up Qbs have done terrible this season except for Colts.

I'm looking at 3 teams vying for the AFC #5 & #6 seeds......Pitt, KC & Jets.....& one won't get in. The Chiefs have the lockdown on the other two for #5 seed as long as they run the table & so do the other two.

So IMO, either Jets or Pitt will lose a game coming up, & looking at Jets schedule, they play Patriots next week. Do the Jets win this week? Your guess is as good as mine, I'm staying far away from the Saturday game........would I be surprised to see Dallas win? Nope......the whole world will be on the Jets!

Agreed, and that is what bothers me, but the public has been winning the past week with GB and then NWE.
Again, a low line on GB-3 vs Oakland who has horrible pass D. I just don't get some of these lines. It is not supposed to be easy at this point in the NFL.

 

[coitus_maximus]

Thanks for the good read Chonce, I agree with all points there. I placed a small $50 wager on Jets -3 at -125 before the line moves up. I just can't back Dallas with a backup QB who can't really throw well vs. Revis and Chromartie and the Jets can just stop the run. And as we saw last week, Dallas may have some run def issues.

What the hell am I missing?

 

[coitus_maximus]

Also we know Dallas doesn't have any shutdown DB's and Cleborne may also be out. I can't imagine the DB's of Dallas shutting down Decker and Marshall. This game seems like such a mismatch.

 

[Selectrick]

Don't believe it's a good idea betting Dallas with Cassel at the helm. As a matter of fact, I see the Jets slapping them about as easily as GBay did. Just an opinion.

 

[JackStraw420]

I'll give you one reason to take Dallas. I am on the Jets -3...lol. Fading me HAS to profitable of late.

Dallas to me (in recent years) is a team that comes up big when they aren't supposed to, and falls on their face when they are expected to conquer. But just watching their offense play Green Bay was painful. Had a few big plays, but overall the play calling and execution was ATROCIOUS, and Jets D has to be better than the Packers. These telegraphed runs straight up the middle on 3rd/4th and short are just laughable. Cassel is barely serviceable as a back up too. Dallas' D and/or Special Teams will have to make plays to keep them in the game. Was Jets or nothing for me, so grabbed it at -3 when I had the chance (at -120).

:smoking:

 

[LENBO]

I honestly cannot find a good reason to take the Cowboys Saturday. The matchups all favor the Jets. QB, RB, WR, Run defense, Turnovers, Sacks. No home field advantage at Dallas and just -3 with 80% public action on the Jets and the only NFL game Saturday.

My brain says Jets win a squeaker to play New England next week, but experience in betting says it's a trap.

Thoughts on this game anyone?

Two of the last 3 games the Jets were road favorites in this spread range and lost outright.
Oakland and Houston.
The win was the Giants so technically a road game.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Two of the last 3 games the Jets were road favorites in this spread range and lost outright.
Oakland and Houston.
The win was the Giants so technically a road game.

I can see the Jets winning by 1 or 2, & I still took the Jets like a dumby today -3.5........knowing the Jets play at home vs division rival Patriots next week, don'tknow how pumped up the Jets wwill be......BUT, knowing they need to win all 3 remaining games to get into the playoffs since they're battling the Chiefs - Steelers for a spot, they come to play tomorrow.

I also stuck Jets in a small parlay on the ML, in case they do win by 3 or less.

Nothing will piss me off more than a Dallas SU win......& come 4th Q, if I see a close game where Dallas has the lead, I will definitely bailout & take Dallas.


We also have 5 bowl games Saturday, what a wild & crazy day it will be.

 

[HHHGameOn4]

I hope we all win along with the public tomorrow, i usually dont bet large amounts (for me at least lol), i have $400 tomorrow on the Jets, my biggest NFL bet this year.

I hesitated betting vs the Cowboys weeks back on Thanksgiving, lets hope for the same scenario Saturday with the Jets.