No worries. U are the one who got me thinking of this after "Cody reed" day last week when the cards scored 4 in the 1st and then 1 more for rest of the game and then took a dump the next game.
Looking at teams that score 4 or more runs in the 1st inning and then 0 or 1 run the rest of the game. I'm thinking they will lose the next game due to "cold bats"
i did did a small sample size and it looked good but I really didn't have the time to crunch all the numbers. If u want to back test, please be my guest. If we can have some extra beer money or video games for the kids, then I'm game
Looking at teams that score 4 or more runs in the 1st inning and then 0 or 1 run the rest of the game. I'm thinking they will lose the next game due to "cold bats"
i did did a small sample size and it looked good but I really didn't have the time to crunch all the numbers. If u want to back test, please be my guest. If we can have some extra beer money or video games for the kids, then I'm game
That would be quite a bit of work to look at many, many box scores, but totally doable. On my slow days at work, I do things like this to try to find a system or pattern. More so in basketball. I don't think anyone has ever found a foolproof system. I think the best way is to cap each game on its own merits. And even that's difficult for most of us, myself included.
And oh yes, tomorrow is Cody Reed Day again.
And oh yes, tomorrow is Cody Reed Day again.
Exactly about being timely. That's why I chose random days and took a quick look. I used the MLB app on my phone b/c they show box scores and u don't have to click.
Like I said, I only thought of this a few days ago and decided to post this while my wife was waiting in a long line during back 2 school shopping. I wanted to post this "system/theory" for the rest of season to see if gains legs for next season. Still gonna try to post for rest of season to see if it's worth playing for next season.
I've been reason the RX for over 15 years. My favorite thing about this site is "people sharing the wealth". College hoops (the best) and college football are the best 2 forums on here. However, this season has been delightful in the baseball forum. Winning helps that a lot!!
Like I said, I only thought of this a few days ago and decided to post this while my wife was waiting in a long line during back 2 school shopping. I wanted to post this "system/theory" for the rest of season to see if gains legs for next season. Still gonna try to post for rest of season to see if it's worth playing for next season.
I've been reason the RX for over 15 years. My favorite thing about this site is "people sharing the wealth". College hoops (the best) and college football are the best 2 forums on here. However, this season has been delightful in the baseball forum. Winning helps that a lot!!
Also curious to see if the braves are in play tomorrow. They scored 3 in the first, 3 in the 2nd, and then didn't score for next 7 innings. Does this hangover effect go into tomorrow? Then again, they are 1 of the worst teams in baseball so they are supposed to lose.
Right now I say "no play" b/c I want at least 4 in the 1st
however u back test and see something, let me know
Right now I say "no play" b/c I want at least 4 in the 1st
however u back test and see something, let me know
What I'll probably wind up doing is back test with different parameter so I don't have to look at a boxscore more than once.
1. 4 runs in the 1st, then one or less run the rest of the game.
2. 5 runs in the 1st and 2nd, then 1 or less
maybe come up with 5 combinations. The problem with systems is that there are so many variables in any given sport, you cannot isolate one variable like you can do in a laboratory. But like I said, this can help me kill some time at my mind numbing job.
1. 4 runs in the 1st, then one or less run the rest of the game.
2. 5 runs in the 1st and 2nd, then 1 or less
maybe come up with 5 combinations. The problem with systems is that there are so many variables in any given sport, you cannot isolate one variable like you can do in a laboratory. But like I said, this can help me kill some time at my mind numbing job.
If opponent scored at least 4 in 1st, and scored 1 the rest of the game, and you are a DOG....... AND it is NOT the FGS (First Game Series):
op:R1 >= 4 and op:R1 + 1 = op:S9 and season >= 2010 and D and SG > 1
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</tbody>Showing 1 to 36 of 36 entries
op:R1 >= 4 and op:R1 + 1 = op:S9 and season >= 2010 and D and SG > 1
| SU: | 21-15 (0.17, 58.3%) | avg line: 136.5 / -148.4 | on / against: +$1,394 / -$1,664 | ROI: +38.7% / -31.1% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RL: | 26-10 (1.67, 72.2%) | avg line: -152.9 / 140.8 | on / against: +$1,092 / -$1,210 | ROI: +19.8% / -33.5% | ||
| OU: | 16-19-1 (-0.29, 45.7%) | avg total: 8.2 | over / under: -$520 / +$165 | ROI: -13.0% / +4.2% |
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| Runs | Hits | Errors | Walks | Strike Outs | Ground Balls | Fly Balls | Team LOB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 4.1 | 8.0 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 6.2 |
| Opp | 3.9 | 8.1 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 6.6 |
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| Date | Link | Day | Site | Team | Starter | Opp | Starter | Final | SUm | W/L | OUm | O/U | Hits | Errors | BL | Line | Total | Innings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2010 | box | Thu | away | White Sox | Gavin Floyd - R | Rangers | Scott Feldman - R | 7-5 | 2 | W | 2.5 | O | 8-9 | 1-2 | 4-2 | 120 | 9.5 | 9 |
| Jul 16, 2010 | box | Fri | home | Red Sox | Felix Doubront - L | Rangers | Colby Lewis - R | 4-8 | -4 | L | 2.5 | O | 8-12 | 2-0 | 1-4 | 120 | 9.5 | 9 |
| Aug 18, 2010 | box | Wed | away | White Sox | Gavin Floyd - R | Twins | Francisco Liriano - L | 6-7 | -1 | L | 6.0 | O | 10-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 140 | 7.0 | 9 |
| Aug 26, 2010 | box | Thu | home | Indians | Justin Masterson - R | Athletics | Vin Mazzaro - R | 3-2 | 1 | W | -3.0 | U | 7-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 105 | 8.0 | 9 |
| Apr 09, 2011 | box | Sat | away | Royals | Bruce Chen - L | Tigers | Phil Coke - L | 3-1 | 2 | W | -5.5 | U | 5-5 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 160 | 9.5 | 9 |
| Jun 18, 2011 | box | Sat | away | Padres | Tim Stauffer - R | Twins | Scott Baker - R | 0-1 | -1 | L | -6.5 | U | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 130 | 7.5 | 9 |
| Aug 27, 2011 | box | Sat | away | Padres | Aaron Harang - R | Diamondbacks | Joe Saunders - L | 1-3 | -2 | L | -5.5 | U | 5-8 | 1-1 | 0-3 | 140 | 9.5 | 9 |
| Sep 08, 2011 | box | Thu | away | Braves | Julio Teheran - R | Mets | Dillon Gee - R | 5-1 | 4 | W | -2.0 | U | 7-7 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 100 | 8.0 | 9 |
| Apr 15, 2012 | box | Sun | home | Red Sox | Felix Doubront - L | Rays | Matt Moore - L | 6-4 | 2 | W | 0.5 | O | 8-13 | 0-0 | 4-0 | -102 | 9.5 | 9 |
| Jun 13, 2012 | box | Wed | away | Athletics | Tommy Milone - L | Rockies | Josh Outman - L | 10-8 | 2 | W | 7.0 | O | 11-12 | 2-1 | 2-4 | 100 | 11.0 | 9 |
| Jul 28, 2012 | box | Sat | away | White Sox | Phillip Humber - R | Rangers | Matt Harrison - L | 5-2 | 3 | W | -3.0 | U | 7-5 | 2-0 | 5-0 | 170 | 10.0 | 9 |
| Aug 01, 2012 | box | Wed | home | Cubs | Travis Wood - L | Pirates | Jeff Karstens - R | 4-8 | -4 | L | 3.5 | O | 11-13 | 0-0 | 1-7 | 112 | 8.5 | 9 |
| Aug 29, 2012 | box | Wed | away | Mets | Matt Harvey - R | Phillies | Tyler Cloyd - R | 3-2 | 1 | W | -3.0 | U | 8-6 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 114 | 8.0 | 9 |
| Sep 02, 2012 | box | Sun | home | Cubs | Travis Wood - L | Giants | Matt Cain - R | 5-7 | -2 | L | 5.0 | O | 7-10 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 170 | 7.0 | 9 |
| Apr 10, 2013 | box | Wed | away | Pirates | Jonathan Sanchez - L | Diamondbacks | Wade Miley - L | 2-10 | -8 | L | 3.0 | O | 5-10 | 2-0 | 0-9 | 170 | 9.0 | 9 |
| Apr 20, 2013 | box | Sat | away | Cubs | Edwin Jackson - R | Brewers | Hiram Burgos - R | 1-5 | -4 | L | -2.5 | U | 7-6 | 3-0 | 0-4 | 105 | 8.5 | 9 |
| Apr 21, 2013 | box | Sun | away | Tigers | Doug Fister - R | Angels | CJ Wilson - L | 3-4 | -1 | L | -1.0 | U | 10-8 | 2-0 | 1-2 | -102 | 8.0 | 10+ |
| Apr 23, 2013 | box | Tue | away | Yankees | Phil Hughes - R | Rays | David Price - L | 4-3 | 1 | W | 0.0 | P | 9-7 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 162 | 7.0 | 9 |
| May 08, 2013 | box | Wed | away | Rangers | Derek Holland - L | Brewers | Kyle Lohse - R | 4-1 | 3 | W | -3.0 | U | 12-12 | 0-1 | 3-0 | 105 | 8.0 | 9 |
| May 21, 2013 | box | Tue | away | Twins | Mike Pelfrey - R | Braves | Tim Hudson - R | 4-5 | -1 | L | 1.0 | O | 10-10 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 170 | 8.0 | 10+ |
| Jul 21, 2013 | box | Sun | away | Pirates | Jeff Locke - L | Reds | Homer Bailey - R | 3-2 | 1 | W | -3.0 | U | 7-3 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 130 | 8.0 | 9 |
| Aug 10, 2013 | box | Sat | away | Marlins | Nathan Eovaldi - R | Braves | Alex Wood - L | 1-0 | 1 | W | -6.5 | U | 3-3 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 190 | 7.5 | 9 |
| Aug 14, 2013 | box | Wed | away | Padres | Andrew Cashner - R | Rockies | Jorge De La Rosa - L | 2-4 | -2 | L | -3.5 | U | 8-8 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 135 | 9.5 | 9 |
| May 20, 2014 | box | Tue | away | White Sox | Andre Rienzo - R | Royals | Yordano Ventura - R | 7-6 | 1 | W | 5.0 | O | 12-10 | 0-0 | 5-1 | 170 | 8.0 | 9 |
| Jun 04, 2014 | box | Wed | away | Mariners | Hisashi Iwakuma - R | Braves | Mike Minor - L | 2-0 | 2 | W | -4.5 | U | 9-6 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 130 | 6.5 | 9 |
| Jul 31, 2014 | box | Thu | away | White Sox | John Danks - L | Tigers | Drew Smyly - L | 7-4 | 3 | W | 2.0 | O | 16-9 | 1-1 | 3-1 | 170 | 9.0 | 9 |
| Sep 02, 2014 | box | Tue | away | Mariners | James Paxton - L | Athletics | Sonny Gray - R | 6-5 | 1 | W | 4.0 | O | 8-9 | 0-0 | 6-0 | 130 | 7.0 | 9 |
| Sep 03, 2014 | box | Wed | away | Reds | Dylan Axelrod - R | Orioles | Miguel Gonzalez - R | 0-6 | -6 | L | -2.0 | U | 4-7 | 0-1 | 0-6 | 150 | 8.0 | 9 |
| Apr 28, 2015 | box | Tue | home | Twins | Mike Pelfrey - R | Tigers | Anibal Sanchez - R | 3-2 | 1 | W | -3.5 | U | 10-3 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 128 | 8.5 | 9 |
| Apr 29, 2015 | box | Wed | away | Angels | Matt Shoemaker - R | Athletics | Jesse Hahn - R | 6-3 | 3 | W | 1.5 | O | 8-8 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 105 | 7.5 | 9 |
| Aug 09, 2015 | box | Sun | away | Mets | Bartolo Colon - R | Rays | Chris Archer - R | 3-4 | -1 | L | 0.5 | O | 6-10 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 158 | 6.5 | 9 |
| Aug 12, 2015 | box | Wed | away | Orioles | Kevin Gausman - R | Mariners | Hisashi Iwakuma - R | 0-3 | -3 | L | -4.0 | U | 0-6 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 110 | 7.0 | 9 |
| Sep 27, 2015 | box | Sun | away | Brewers | Tyler Cravy - R | Cardinals | John Lackey - R | 8-4 | 4 | W | 4.5 | O | 9-10 | 1-1 | 5-2 | 205 | 7.5 | 9 |
| May 07, 2016 | box | Sat | home | Angels | Jered Weaver - R | Rays | Jake Odorizzi - R | 2-4 | -2 | L | -2.0 | U | 7-8 | 2-1 | 2-2 | 112 | 8.0 | 9 |
| Jun 25, 2016 | box | Sat | home | Marlins | Paul Clemens - R | Cubs | John Lackey - R | 9-6 | 3 | W | 7.0 | O | 10-8 | 0-2 | 5-3 | 170 | 8.0 | 9 |
| Aug 04, 2016 | box | Thu | home | Reds | Brandon Finnegan - L | Cardinals | Mike Leake - R | 7-0 | 7 | W | -2.0 | U | 11-5 | 0-0 | 7-0 | 132 | 9.0 | 9 |
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@ Biz:
You have used sportsdatabase.com to query these variables, right?
How you formulated the query?
Too bad they don't have the data but just from the beginning of the 2010 season.
For a lot of more complicated variables they have just the last 4-5 seasons with data, more basic info they have in the database since 2004.
I've played a little bit with these queries myself too about 1 year ago, I found some nice results overall (since 2004), but always if I broke them down to per single seasons, the records were wildly variable - like a mix of some very nicely winning seasons with some clear loser ones.
So I could not come up with nothing good enough from here to use to date...
You have used sportsdatabase.com to query these variables, right?
How you formulated the query?
Too bad they don't have the data but just from the beginning of the 2010 season.
For a lot of more complicated variables they have just the last 4-5 seasons with data, more basic info they have in the database since 2004.
I've played a little bit with these queries myself too about 1 year ago, I found some nice results overall (since 2004), but always if I broke them down to per single seasons, the records were wildly variable - like a mix of some very nicely winning seasons with some clear loser ones.
So I could not come up with nothing good enough from here to use to date...
- I like to go back to 2010 to keep it recent.
- I don't use systems with wild variations from year to year.
- The query is at the top of the results.
From 2004-2009
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- I don't use systems with wild variations from year to year.
- The query is at the top of the results.
From 2004-2009
| op:R1 >= 4 and op:R1 + 1 = op:S9 and season < 2010 and D and SG > 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||
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