Trentmoney 2009 CFB

[trentmoney]

Plays are 1*-8*

3* UTEP -6.5

Buffalo travels to Texas to open the season with a porous defense (4.9 ypc, 65.8% completion) and a 1st yr starter at QB against a team with 8 starters back on offense and a 3yr starter at QB who threw for 33 TDs last season...Mike Price has avg over 30 ppg in 4 of 5 seasons at UTEP and last yr avg 33 ppg...Defensive struggles dogged them last yr, the first in new DC 3-3-5 stack, which should improve with an increased comfort level in second season for the 7 returning starters

Buffalo was actually outgained ypg in MAC last yr, so their production did not match their record, but benefitted all yr long by +19 TO's, losing the TO battle in only 2 of 14 games!!! When comparing how MAC teams did vs CUSA in bowl games last yr, this does not bode well for a team that, statistically speaking, was just average in a weak conference last yr

Just don't think UB is at the point where they can re-load after a magical season and lose a 4 yr starter at QB in the process to go on the road opening night and win...I'll take the home team laying less than a TD

good luck

 

[Club]

Thanks for posting. I'm looking forward to your plays. I like the angle of teams with inordinately high (or low) turnover ratios reverting to the norm the following year. Good luck.

 

[fivestarjake]

just played this at 7 +100. don't know why it was overlooked but thanks for reminding in this spot. hope you have a big year trent:toast:

 

[trentmoney]

2* Wake Forest -1

Starting to inch back up so taking this now...

How is a team that was 3-8 vs FBS teams last year, with all 3 wins coming at home vs three of the worst teams in ncaa (a combined 7-29 record for wsu, tex am, ia st) have it's opening day road game lined at one point vs a team that was 8-5 last year..??

If this is a trap, then consider me trapped..!!

Wake has advantages along the lines, steady play at QB, and a great coach (you don't go 28-12 70% last 3 yrs at Wake w/out serious coaching skills!!). Baylor has a promising young QB who played about as well as you can last year (15/3 TD-INT) and as much talent as he has, realistically, i'm not sure how much he can improve on those numbers...they also have 1st time starters at OT and WF defensive strength is on their D-Line...it also doesn't help to have a defense that gave up 67% completion to be facing a 4 yr starter who has a career comp pct over 65%...

I know WF has lost a lot on defense but that's the beauty of what jim grobe has done here...he doesn't just coach a team, he directs a "program"...almost every player who comes through wake gets redshirted, so by the time they get their chance to play they're completely immersed in the schemes and nuances of what the team is trying to do. The four nfl draft choices from last yr's team were all 2-3* recruits that were redshirted and grew into great players under this type of guidance...i fully expect their replacements to do the same, as has been the case recently at Wake Forest.

good luck

 

[pezgordo]

Hi Trent, how's it going?

I got on Wake a few days ago at -1 (-105). I definately like the line advantages, 4 year starting QB and coach.

I look forward to speaking w/ you throughout the season.

Good luck,

pez

 

[BigdaddyQH]

The Baylor-Wake game is NOT a trap. People who think so had better learn exactly what a trap is. If anything, it could be a "bait and switch" and if so, you are on the right side if you took Wake.

Assuming that this is just another game, like the other 99% of the games, I can understand the hype on Baylor. They return 8 starters on offense, including all their skilled players. Their OLis going to need work. They also return 6 on defense, including all 3 LB's. Two of Baylors losses last year were by 3 points.

Wake returns 9 starters on their offense, but that offense was held to 17 or less points in half of their games last season. They only return 4 starters on defense, 3 being on the front line.

I can see no reason to bet this game, no matter where the line ends up, unless there is a huge swing to Wake. Everyone keeps talking about the line movement, but there are plenty of games with movement just as big, or bigger, from the opening spread. This spread only moved 4 or 5 points, and all in one direction. UCLA opened against San Deigo State at -24, dropped to-17, and now has worked it's way back to -20. Stanford opened up against Wazzu at -19,dropped to -14, and is now around the 16 range. Other lines have also moved 4 to 5 points in one direction.

If you like Baylor, take them. If you like Wake, take them. What ever you do, do not let the line movement swing your wager one way or the other. Line movement this far before the game means nothing. As I suggested, you may want to watch theline movement just BEFORE game time,to see is there is a big swing back to Wake.

 

[trentmoney]

Hi Trent, how's it going?

I got on Wake a few days ago at -1 (-105). I definately like the line advantages, 4 year starting QB and coach.

I look forward to speaking w/ you throughout the season.

Good luck,

pez

What's up Pez??
good to hear from you...I'll send you a PM

:toast:

 

[55 % at worst]

1-8 star plays are way to much deviation for anyone to take seriously. A % of your bankroll, let's say 1-2% is a more honest way to show your handicapping. That is one reason no one takes touts seriously. They lose 15 units then come in with there big 10 star plays and the units won are not a true reflection of there records. Just my opinion. You can really bury guys who actually follow anyone on these boards giving out a 8 unit play. It is kind of ridiculous. I mean you can hit 60% and still be a loser betting that way. Just doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

 

[trentmoney]

1-8 star plays are way to much deviation for anyone to take seriously. A % of your bankroll, let's say 1-2% is a more honest way to show your handicapping. That is one reason no one takes touts seriously. They lose 15 units then come in with there big 10 star plays and the units won are not a true reflection of there records. Just my opinion. You can really bury guys who actually follow anyone on these boards giving out a 8 unit play. It is kind of ridiculous. I mean you can hit 60% and still be a loser betting that way. Just doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

then don't take me seriously...

it's made me $$$ 3 years in a row all documented on this forum...just search my name and check the threads ("beat the line move" was 2006 thread and used 1-4* but just halved value and increased 1-8* after). there is a reason why my plays are valued that way, and you can also check and see that i've never had a "bail out special" for 8 units to get me out of the red...we leave that type of crap to mistaflava

btw-i post my plays for documentation and to look back and see my thoughts on certain plays and see if my analysis could have been tweaked or if it was right on.
if i needed your justification or cared about "being taken seriously" i'd be a sorry excuse for a man...

 

[Proman]

Plays are 1*-8*

3* UTEP -6.5

Buffalo travels to Texas to open the season with a porous defense (4.9 ypc, 65.8% completion) and a 1st yr starter at QB against a team with 8 starters back on offense and a 3yr starter at QB who threw for 33 TDs last season...Mike Price has avg over 30 ppg in 4 of 5 seasons at UTEP and last yr avg 33 ppg...Defensive struggles dogged them last yr, the first in new DC 3-3-5 stack, which should improve with an increased comfort level in second season for the 7 returning starters

Buffalo was actually outgained ypg in MAC last yr, so their production did not match their record, but benefitted all yr long by +19 TO's, losing the TO battle in only 2 of 14 games!!! When comparing how MAC teams did vs CUSA in bowl games last yr, this does not bode well for a team that, statistically speaking, was just average in a weak conference last yr

Just don't think UB is at the point where they can re-load after a magical season and lose a 4 yr starter at QB in the process to go on the road opening night and win...I'll take the home team laying less than a TD

good luck

I like this play as well and completely agree with your reasoning. Huge Home field advantage. UTEP, a much better team at home.

 

[LonnieTGator]

Wake Fst should be giving at least 3 or 4 points so -1 looks like a great bet

ut elpaso should win for you as well

 

[trentmoney]

Wake Fst should be giving at least 3 or 4 points so -1 looks like a great bet

Total "value" play imo, wouldn't have played it at 4.5-7 but crossed too many key #'s to pass on it

 

[United]

Nice info

Leaning towards UTEP even more now.

Good Luck

 

[pezgordo]

What's up Pez??
good to hear from you...I'll send you a PM

:toast:

I'm doing well Trent and hoping to have a good season. You looking at any totals in week one? I'm on a handful right now and each one of them have crossed key numbers in my favor.

Talk to you soon.

 

[MSUSpartans]

welcome back trent. Here's to continued success this year!:toast:

 

[8ate]

nice write-up on buff/tex western;

i'd love to hear your thoughts on ncst/south carolina..

gl...!~~~!

 

[MSUSpartans]

nice write-up on buff/tex western;

Either you just watched Glory Road or you are showing your age......

 

[trentmoney]

welcome back trent. Here's to continued success this year!:toast:

What up Sparty??

cool thing about this forum is the annual "reunion" with guys like you, pez, and woofy

we'll talk mich st once they start playing real teams wk 3

:toast:

 

[trentmoney]

Trent. Since you allegedly do so well, will you post all of your plays in one thread, in the tracker, as I have done? So far, I've seen a lot of talk in here, but not too much action in the tracker. Also, I can see the point about 1-8 stars being very weak. What it shows is that you do not wager a lot of money on your plays. 55% does have a valid point. No gambler who has been in this business for a while, and successful at it has that kind of spread. You do your thing, but whatever your reason is for playing it that way, it is wrong. Take it fromsomeone that plays more money in a month than you do all season. It is not tough to spot a double diget bettor. They are the ones that play 1-8 star spreads. Good Luck. We will be following you this year very closely.

"Allegedly" means unproven...you can look that up in the dictionary...which is exactly what your claims are.

Me? just do a search in this forum for my threads...2006 was titled "Beat the Line Move", then 2007 and 2008 are titled like this year...

3 straight years of winning handicapping.

Not one great year, one bad year, and one average year.

3 straight years of winning picks.
The last 2 years NC winners (UF +650, LSU 12-1) and i can bump those threads for you if your not computer savvy enough to find them on your own.
5-0 on total season wins plays the last 2 years.

That's not allegedly...That's fact.

And whether I play a dollar or a dime doesn't matter...if you think it does then you don't have a clue...i'm certainly not going to tell you how much i play but you are WAY off...

and why the hell would you want to watch a double-digit bettor anyway??

get lost, your not welcome in this thread...

 

[MSUSpartans]

What's up bigdaddy's ass? And where's that post from?