This is also probably going to be a play on FAU for me...Probably not a large one...I'm a little curious to see which direction the line moves..Texas has won their first game of the year by an average of 43 points..I would think it would go up before it went down, just because of Mack's reputation for destroying the early season dogs..In this case though, the capability of doing this may not be there..FAU is a pretty solid team for a Sunbelt team. And they are the overwhelming favorite to win that conference. Also, with FAU's ability to score, and starting an All-SBC QB, the backdoor will always be wide open here if he can pick apart a young Texas secondary...Good play.
line has come down 2.5 points already from the opener of 26.
i assume this will be a different FAU team than any other? or a much different UTexas team?
FAU on the road against BCS teams
lose to osu by 36
lose to uky by 28
lose to fla by 39
lose to clem by 48
lose to ksu by 45
lose to osu by 40
lose to ku by 11
lose to minny by 39
lose to lville by 51
texas defense is young but talented and they should have a much better defensive coordinator than what they did last year.
texas should be able to move the ball with their much more experienced OL, a solid QB and some decent WRs returning. the running game is a ? for them too.
FAU looks solid across the board but not as talented athletically. they are probably better than any of HS"s teams that lost on the road by 30+ to BCS teams as shown above.
could be a good game to take the OVER
i assume this will be a different FAU team than any other? or a much different UTexas team?
FAU on the road against BCS teams
lose to osu by 36
lose to uky by 28
lose to fla by 39
lose to clem by 48
lose to ksu by 45
lose to osu by 40
lose to ku by 11
lose to minny by 39
lose to lville by 51
texas defense is young but talented and they should have a much better defensive coordinator than what they did last year.
texas should be able to move the ball with their much more experienced OL, a solid QB and some decent WRs returning. the running game is a ? for them too.
FAU looks solid across the board but not as talented athletically. they are probably better than any of HS"s teams that lost on the road by 30+ to BCS teams as shown above.
could be a good game to take the OVER
i always appreciate analysis from the other side
having said that, it's hard to start debating for or against when the game is over a month away!!
i will say this:
i fully expect texas to run on fau and not have any problem scoring
i also expect fau to have no problem throwing on texas as 5 teams threw for over 300 last yr and another 4 for over 240
it's hard to quantify how good fau passing game is since they play in the sbc but in their last 3 ooc games they threw for 259 vs USF, 309 @ UF, and 350 vs Memphis in the bowl victory
just think that an experienced team on the rise like fau should not be getting that many pts
having said that, it's hard to start debating for or against when the game is over a month away!!
i will say this:
i fully expect texas to run on fau and not have any problem scoring
i also expect fau to have no problem throwing on texas as 5 teams threw for over 300 last yr and another 4 for over 240
it's hard to quantify how good fau passing game is since they play in the sbc but in their last 3 ooc games they threw for 259 vs USF, 309 @ UF, and 350 vs Memphis in the bowl victory
just think that an experienced team on the rise like fau should not be getting that many pts
After looking at this team last year they really starting putting up points after the 1st couple games. I think it took the QB a while to get warmed up. They put up over 20 points against USF last year and they had a pretty good defense. I think I'm going to look at the over pretty hard. Hard to go against Texas in the first game of year. Except for last year, I always remember looking at the ticker in the first week of the season and say "Whoa...Texas scored over 60 points!?"
In fact, they have averaged 53 points per game in their opener since 2003. I think Mac Brown does a good job getting his offense ready come week one.
I don't really think his performances against Kentucky, South Florida or Florida last year were special either. With the exception of South Florida, the other three teams were not known for having stellar defenses last season.
I think their games against Sunbelt teams and their game against Minnesota are carrying too much weight in analyzing a bet on this Texas game. Last season, a team could come into Austin and get a cover if not a SU win, but it will not be the same this year. This is not the same Texas team of a year ago despite losing some key skill players. I think Texas gets back to dominating the teams they should dominate this season and it starts with FAU. FAU has never proven to me they have the ability to do well against a BCS team. There's no way I can give them any love in this match-up.
Trent, good to see college lines out and you posting. I had a big play last year on Fla Atlantic against ULL and it was heart attack city. They did cover in overtime but it was a giant struggle. I had the right side but Flor Atlantic made a lot of mistakes. Smith is lanky and awkward as heck at times. They do put up a lot of points and Texas is vunerable like Trent says. Good luck here and really enjoy your writeups.
BS...We'll have to see how things play out between now and gametime. This is the very reason why I NEVER bet a line early. There are too many details to be worked out both with the line and the teams..And you never know what can happen in summer practices between now and August 30th. I've been having trouble getting a true gauge of Texas this season because of only 4 returning starters on defense and a new DC. I'm trying to keep a close monitor on them....But one thing from a betting persepctive, if you like Texas I'm not so sure an OVER play is such a great idea..It probably meant that Muschamp's defense worked! This is the big unknown factor with the Horns. If I was betting today I would put a small wager on FAU...But we'll see what the line looks like a month from now.
I bet Texas -24 today for 2 units. Mack is a true "Bully" coach. Since '03 he's 10-3 ATS (.769) vs non-BCSers in the first month of the season. Stats are based on Don Best closing lines. Was glad to see the spread come down 2 points - usually doesn't happen with faves early in the season.
AND, he's 3-1 ATS vs. Sunbelt teams the last three years (all openers in Austin). Last year they had a tough time with Arkansas St, but as we found out, Texas struggled all season while Arkansas St. went on to beat both SMU and Memphis last season.
You are right, Mack loves to beat up on the Jr. League teams. I guess he figures that if they are getting paid extra to come play in Austin, then he doesn't owe them the favor of mercy.
3* tenn -6
can't see the line going down
will probably buy back as could see line movement past -7
olsen injury will create even more chaos for a team that has undergone too much transition
non-contact injuries not a good sign, must play behind raw o-line, probably looking at missed practice time even if injury is not serious... either way not good for a new offense looking for continuity
new coach
new coordinator
new qbs
new o-line
new wrs
7 of top 10 tacklers gone including top sacker and all-conference defensive back
can't see the line going down
will probably buy back as could see line movement past -7
olsen injury will create even more chaos for a team that has undergone too much transition
non-contact injuries not a good sign, must play behind raw o-line, probably looking at missed practice time even if injury is not serious... either way not good for a new offense looking for continuity
new coach
new coordinator
new qbs
new o-line
new wrs
7 of top 10 tacklers gone including top sacker and all-conference defensive back
