The post below was written by Don Dollars about 2 years ago and was very successful. Then he stoped posting. I tried to pick up the thread a few weeks ago using these rules and have not been too successful.
Don Dollars' rules for Sucker Bets
Don Dollars:
Rule 1- when the lines come out, take a look at them. Is there any line that sticks out and seems "too good to be true"? A good way to test this is to talk to friends that gamble on football games, yet they do not put in any time handicapping. They are truly the "public eye". Ask them which games they like this week. My guess is that they will be wagering on the games that appeared (at first glance) "too good to be true".
Rule 2 - determine the %'s of people betting on the game. Look for games that have around 70% or more of the wagers coming in on one side. Often times the game that you thought was "too good to be true" will be one that is getting POUNDED and has a high % of wagers. Those with too high of a % of wagers are SUCKER BET candidates.
Rule 3- Watch the lines all week. If a line opens at PHILADELPHIA -3 and everyone is pounding Philadelphia, often times the book will realize that they have put a sketchy line out and will raise it. In some instances this game may end up at Philadelphia -6 or some other # representing a need by the books to raise the line. Why would the books raise the line? If a disproportionate amount of MONEY is coming in on one side and they are NOT CONFIDENT in standing firm on the other side.....or if the SHARPS are siding with that team also.
So in Rule 3 what are we looking for? LINES THAT MOVE IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. For example, if a line was Philadelphia -3 and 75% of the wagers were coming in on Philadelphia, however the line moved to Philadelphia - 2.5 ......A GIANT RED FLAG SHOULD BE RAISED. A "reverse" line movement is a key indicator of something sketchy going on.
On the same note, keep an eye on games that have one side being POUNDED, however the line stays the same. In the Philadelphia example, if the line stayed at Philadelphia -3 I would look into it further. I would ask: Why isn't the book raising this to -3.5? This is especially true with the KEY NUMBERS 3, 4, 7, 10, etc... In my opinion a line STAYING at -3, is even stronger than a line that moves from 5.5 down to 4.5. It isn't about the size of the movement, rather it is about the significance of the movement.
These two things happen when the % of wagers are disproportionate to the % of actual $$$ coming in on a side (largely in part to SHARPS), or a book wants to stand on a line.
RULE 4 - I know a lot of people do not believe in Rule 4, but I am a STRONG believer in it. It asks, WHAT DOES PINNACLE WANT ME TO DO? I believe strongly that Pinnacle is a genius book that uses influence to take leans on games. For instance if the line on the SAME game appears as such:
BetCris - Philadelphia -3
WSEX - Philadelphia -3
5-Dimes - Philadelphia -3
BetUS- Philadelphia -3
Pinnacle - Philadelphia -2.5
In this case I would be asking myself.....WHY IS PINNACLE BEGGING ME TO TAKE PHIALDELPHIA AT THEIR SITE? Anyone that is line shopping is going to take Philadelphia at Pinnacle.....and usually Pinnacle seems to have no problems with this.....and usually (keep an eye on it) Pinnacle ends up with the MONEY. It is a tough book to beat. *** On a more sophisticated note, keep an eye on the juice. Remember that Philly -3 at -115 is much, much worse than Philly -3 at -102.
Rule 5 - This is one of the most important rules, however seems to get neglected way too often.
WHAT IS THE PUBLIC'S PERCEPTION OF THE TWO TEAMS PLAYING?
You are optimally looking for a team with a STRONG/POSITIVE public image to be playing a team with a WEAK/NEGATIVE public image. Often times these images are exaggerated by the public due to one or two performances that were either noteworthy or on a public stage. This rule leaves room for Subjectivity, but I'm afraid that is part of the game.
This is OBVIOUSLY not the only way to handicap, and I am not claiming that it is the best way to handicap, however I am saying one thing:
THIS IS ONE WAY TO HANDICAP GAMES. In most years, going against the public is going to be a good thing.
This is what I have defined (in my mind) to be a: SUCKER BET
I want to repeat one more caveat before I go into this week's handicapping. This "sucker bet" bet is just a concept and my thread is just examining and experimenting with the concept. I don't want anyone placing a bet on the final pick in this thread based on my experimenting. Only bet the game if you like it personally.
In my last thread for week 10, Quantumleap came up with a trap for the Mon night game-it indicated SF which was an easy winner. His post showed that it hit on all the 5 points above, but I felt that it was too low on the percentage of bets. I like to see 70% and SF had about 64%, so I wouldn't have called it a trap, even though it was very close. Maybe we should reduce the threshhold for % down to 65%?
Anyway for this week I am using Ace's post showing the % as of Thurs night. What's good about it is that all the games have 10,000 bets or more, so it is a good indication of the public's trends. I could use websites showing different %, but they do not have as many bets placed on each game.
As of now I only see one game that qualifies.
Tenn-3 over Jax.
The line opened up at Tenn-3 and has been staying there despite 76% of the bets being on Tenn. I have 1 sportsbook (Betallsportshere.com) who has it at -2.5 -110.
Pinnacle has the line at -1, although heavy juice of -124
The public is in love with Tenn and also feels that Jax is sliding down hill and is not the team it use to be.
One other point to add which is not part of DD's rules. KC is on Jax and he has been hot as a pistol lately.
The Indy/Houston game is close but the 5 of plays on Indy is only 61%.
Let's hear some ideas.
Don Dollars:
Rule 1- when the lines come out, take a look at them. Is there any line that sticks out and seems "too good to be true"? A good way to test this is to talk to friends that gamble on football games, yet they do not put in any time handicapping. They are truly the "public eye". Ask them which games they like this week. My guess is that they will be wagering on the games that appeared (at first glance) "too good to be true".
Rule 2 - determine the %'s of people betting on the game. Look for games that have around 70% or more of the wagers coming in on one side. Often times the game that you thought was "too good to be true" will be one that is getting POUNDED and has a high % of wagers. Those with too high of a % of wagers are SUCKER BET candidates.
Rule 3- Watch the lines all week. If a line opens at PHILADELPHIA -3 and everyone is pounding Philadelphia, often times the book will realize that they have put a sketchy line out and will raise it. In some instances this game may end up at Philadelphia -6 or some other # representing a need by the books to raise the line. Why would the books raise the line? If a disproportionate amount of MONEY is coming in on one side and they are NOT CONFIDENT in standing firm on the other side.....or if the SHARPS are siding with that team also.
So in Rule 3 what are we looking for? LINES THAT MOVE IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. For example, if a line was Philadelphia -3 and 75% of the wagers were coming in on Philadelphia, however the line moved to Philadelphia - 2.5 ......A GIANT RED FLAG SHOULD BE RAISED. A "reverse" line movement is a key indicator of something sketchy going on.
On the same note, keep an eye on games that have one side being POUNDED, however the line stays the same. In the Philadelphia example, if the line stayed at Philadelphia -3 I would look into it further. I would ask: Why isn't the book raising this to -3.5? This is especially true with the KEY NUMBERS 3, 4, 7, 10, etc... In my opinion a line STAYING at -3, is even stronger than a line that moves from 5.5 down to 4.5. It isn't about the size of the movement, rather it is about the significance of the movement.
These two things happen when the % of wagers are disproportionate to the % of actual $$$ coming in on a side (largely in part to SHARPS), or a book wants to stand on a line.
RULE 4 - I know a lot of people do not believe in Rule 4, but I am a STRONG believer in it. It asks, WHAT DOES PINNACLE WANT ME TO DO? I believe strongly that Pinnacle is a genius book that uses influence to take leans on games. For instance if the line on the SAME game appears as such:
BetCris - Philadelphia -3
WSEX - Philadelphia -3
5-Dimes - Philadelphia -3
BetUS- Philadelphia -3
Pinnacle - Philadelphia -2.5
In this case I would be asking myself.....WHY IS PINNACLE BEGGING ME TO TAKE PHIALDELPHIA AT THEIR SITE? Anyone that is line shopping is going to take Philadelphia at Pinnacle.....and usually Pinnacle seems to have no problems with this.....and usually (keep an eye on it) Pinnacle ends up with the MONEY. It is a tough book to beat. *** On a more sophisticated note, keep an eye on the juice. Remember that Philly -3 at -115 is much, much worse than Philly -3 at -102.
Rule 5 - This is one of the most important rules, however seems to get neglected way too often.
WHAT IS THE PUBLIC'S PERCEPTION OF THE TWO TEAMS PLAYING?
You are optimally looking for a team with a STRONG/POSITIVE public image to be playing a team with a WEAK/NEGATIVE public image. Often times these images are exaggerated by the public due to one or two performances that were either noteworthy or on a public stage. This rule leaves room for Subjectivity, but I'm afraid that is part of the game.
This is OBVIOUSLY not the only way to handicap, and I am not claiming that it is the best way to handicap, however I am saying one thing:
THIS IS ONE WAY TO HANDICAP GAMES. In most years, going against the public is going to be a good thing.
This is what I have defined (in my mind) to be a: SUCKER BET
I want to repeat one more caveat before I go into this week's handicapping. This "sucker bet" bet is just a concept and my thread is just examining and experimenting with the concept. I don't want anyone placing a bet on the final pick in this thread based on my experimenting. Only bet the game if you like it personally.
In my last thread for week 10, Quantumleap came up with a trap for the Mon night game-it indicated SF which was an easy winner. His post showed that it hit on all the 5 points above, but I felt that it was too low on the percentage of bets. I like to see 70% and SF had about 64%, so I wouldn't have called it a trap, even though it was very close. Maybe we should reduce the threshhold for % down to 65%?
Anyway for this week I am using Ace's post showing the % as of Thurs night. What's good about it is that all the games have 10,000 bets or more, so it is a good indication of the public's trends. I could use websites showing different %, but they do not have as many bets placed on each game.
As of now I only see one game that qualifies.
Tenn-3 over Jax.
The line opened up at Tenn-3 and has been staying there despite 76% of the bets being on Tenn. I have 1 sportsbook (Betallsportshere.com) who has it at -2.5 -110.
Pinnacle has the line at -1, although heavy juice of -124
The public is in love with Tenn and also feels that Jax is sliding down hill and is not the team it use to be.
One other point to add which is not part of DD's rules. KC is on Jax and he has been hot as a pistol lately.
The Indy/Houston game is close but the 5 of plays on Indy is only 61%.
Let's hear some ideas.
