Tracking systems and historical analysis NCAAB

[ZackAttacks301]

Maybe this is random, I haven't looked too deep into it...this is an open discussion thread so maybe someone has already done this and can chime in.

It seems like when a public HEAVY favorite is down, tied, or only up 1** or 2** in the 1st half, 2 examples just from yesterday...Kansas (-12.5) 40 to 39 and Oregon (-3.5) 16 to 30. Betting on them for 2nd half seems very strong. I don't remember what Oregon's 2nd half line was, but I'm sure it was a great line, and I'm sure it was a winner as they almost covered the Game spread. Kansas was -7.5 for 2nd half. I'm going to do some historical analysis and see if there is any merit to this "system". If anyone has any suggestions or criteria specifics or even if you have already done this, please let me know what you guys think...Good idea? Bad idea? or insignificant??

Also if you know where I can find 2nd half lines that would be a big help.


**Kansas was up 1 (40 to 39), the Kansas game spread was -12/-12.5...the 2nd half line was -7.5, that would mean if Kansas covered the game spread, they would easily cover the 2nd half line.

**So I'm going to look at teams that are down or up a few and the 2nd half line is = to less the game spread.

 

[ZackAttacks301]

I need to be able to find a site that has historical 2nd half lines ##)

 

[r.a.]

Maybe this is random, I haven't looked too deep into it...this is an open discussion thread so maybe someone has already done this and can chime in.

It seems like when a public HEAVY favorite is down, tied, or only up 1** or 2** in the 1st half, 2 examples just from yesterday...Kansas (-12.5) 40 to 39 and Oregon (-3.5) 16 to 30. Betting on them for 2nd half seems very strong. I don't remember what Oregon's 2nd half line was, but I'm sure it was a great line, and I'm sure it was a winner as they almost covered the Game spread. Kansas was -7.5 for 2nd half. I'm going to do some historical analysis and see if there is any merit to this "system". If anyone has any suggestions or criteria specifics or even if you have already done this, please let me know what you guys think...Good idea? Bad idea? or insignificant??

Also if you know where I can find 2nd half lines that would be a big help.


**Kansas was up 1 (40 to 39), the Kansas game spread was -12/-12.5...the 2nd half line was -7.5, that would mean if Kansas covered the game spread, they would easily cover the 2nd half line.

**So I'm going to look at teams that are down or up a few and the 2nd half line is = to less the game spread.

Remember seeing an NBA system where if the home team was a 10+ favorite, at home, and was down by 10+ points at the half to take that home team minus the points for the 2nd half. Fair number of opportunities throughout a given year and it did have positive results. Would require the vigilance of watching for all said games and waiting for the half time lines.

 

[ZackAttacks301]

Remember seeing an NBA system where if the home team was a 10+ favorite, at home, and was down by 10+ points at the half to take that home team minus the points for the 2nd half. Fair number of opportunities throughout a given year and it did have positive results. Would require the vigilance of watching for all said games and waiting for the half time lines.

I just did this for NBA, but not home team -10. Just any favorite down at half or up by 1 or 2, that is heavy public favorite. Results for the month on Jan 2017. I got 16-7 (69%), if you take out Memphis, you get 16-5 (76%). The games that were close I did not count due to not having a 2nd half line to see the results. I wanted to do more months but I got tired lol. Going to take a break and then continue.

Given these results is this system worth performing? Is +9 units / +11 units for the month of January that great? Seems like it isn't too much, someone please correct me.

Also, historical analysis is much easier, and will have way better results. It takes a lot of discipline and patience, I'm not sure if I can emulate this going forward. My degen addiction will probably kick in and cause me to bet plays that don't quite fit. ##) Although I will try my best...ONLY 23/21 plays in a month!! Uhh this is going to be hard! hno:

 

[Biz]

I need to be able to find a site that has historical 2nd half lines ##)

http://www.sportsplays.com/scores.html

Oregon was -6 2H last night.

 

[JosephKirby]

Villanova -10 home fav yesterday. Up 1 at half, got stomped in 2nd.

 

[ZackAttacks301]

Villanova -10 home fav yesterday. Up 1 at half, got stomped in 2nd.

Right, but do you know the 2nd half line? Cuz if book has it more then original spread, then not a play.

For Kansas -7.5 that would make Kansas -8.5 for the game. The GAME was Kansas -12.5, so they were up 1 at half. Line was -7.5 so you would be getting +4 for the game. so that qualifies.

Oregon -6 2nd half, they were down 14. GAME spread was Oregon -3.5, with the 2nd half line you would be getting...I just had a brain fart, but you would be getting + points in comparison to the Game spread.


If we don't know the 2nd half line for Villa we can't determine if it is a play or not. Let's say Nova was up 1 and 2nd half line offered was -11, that is stupid cuz then we would have to beat the GAME spread by -2. So that wouldn't qualify, but I don't know the Nova 2nd half line so can't determine.

 

[ZackAttacks301]

http://www.sportsplays.com/scores.html

Oregon was -6 2H last night.

Thanks!! A LOT! This will be a great help

 

[ZackAttacks301]

I just did this for NCAAB, and it is much more difficult to find plays. I had to add a lot more criteria to the system. Basically for the month of Jan, it went 8-3-3. Not a lot of plays and not that great...The 3 that were push are actually unkowns. They were too close and without the 2nd half line I cant determine if they won or lost. If they lost, the system is trash, if they won, the system has the best win rate.

 

[ZackAttacks301]

Went back and checked out the 3 pushes that were unkown thanks to Biz and this site http://www.sportsplays.com/scores.html ...2 were winners and 1 was an actual push.

So the record is 10-3-1 (76%)....Do you guys want me to track and post the plays or it's not worth it?

 

[ZackAttacks301]

I was actually trying to make a thread in the picks and tracker section but I don't have 300 or more comments to qualify for me to be allowed to post there

 

[TimmyRules]

Scoresandodds.com may help also

 

[ZackAttacks301]

For NBA, with that awesome site, I was able to update the few unknowns... If you played all the plays, including the ones with Memphis 20-8 (71%) for month of Jan. Now we know to take out Memphis, it would be 20-6 (76%). I think this has the most value. The college one is too much criteria has to qualify for it to be a play.

 

[ZackAttacks301]

I'm going to create a Thread in the NBA section for this one.

 

[dave_1970]

Zack you need to check out BetLabsSports.com. I have had an account with them for several months now and their data is excellent. You can create systems based on over 200 metrics and then see how those systems have performed over time. I have about 60 systems that I track right now. When a play comes up for a given system the site e-mails you, or, you can just check it to see what plays are available on your systems. To give you an example, here is a system similar to what you describe above that I personally follow that is hitting at 63%, but plays don't come up on it that often.



A favorite of mine is a 2H NBA Under System when the first half goes under by double digits. This one is hitting 60% over 8 years and plays on it do come up quite a bit.

The cost of the site is $200 a month, or about 1 unit for me. Well worth the money.



Dave

 

[ZackAttacks301]

Wow this looks awesome! Might be just what I'm looking for. It would be so much easier to have the plays messaged to me instead of wasting my time sitting here watching and waiting. Thanks I will check it out now!

 

[dave_1970]

I posted 2 NBA examples, but they have data for NCAAB games as well. I have only 1 system play tonight, Idaho State +10.5, on a system that tracks Below Average ATS Road Dogs vs. above .500 teams. Hitting at 55% overall and 57% for the season.

 

[dave_1970]

Yea its pretty cool. If you join I am happy to share any of my systems, and if you come up with any good ones I would ask that you do the same.

 

[ZackAttacks301]

I just watched a video on how to use it...this is exactly what I'm looking for. I will let you know if I decide to join and if I come up with something. Thanks a lot!

 

[ZackAttacks301]

Yea its pretty cool. If you join I am happy to share any of my systems, and if you come up with any good ones I would ask that you do the same.

I couldn't resist...I signed up!